If we draft a QB in 25 or 26, here are the odds they will be a success

[IrishAnto]

Great point. Your point may also highlight how desperate almost all NFL teams are to find even decent QB play.

As you point out, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray have earned second contracts but neither has won a playoff game. In five NFL seasons, Murray’s record as a starter is 28-36-1. His cards have made the playoffs once and lost their only game. As a starter, Daniel Jones is 22-36-1 and also has made the playoffs once, where like Murray he is 0-1.

Getting a second contract is something but obviously it is not a given that means the QB has been a success.

In all fairness Bob, Jones and Murray’s teams haven’t won a playoff game.
It’s the most important position on the team, but it takes a team to win.

 

[Bobhaze]

This is a slightly flawed list because the QB successes in particular are heavily weighted to the top 10 picks. Of the playoff QBs over the last 2 years, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Goff, Stafford, Baker, Stroud were all top 10 picks.

When you’re drafting in the 20’s, you’re sifting through the Brandon Weedens and Johnny Manziels and Paxton Lynch’s and Patrick Ramsey’s and JP Losmans and Jason Campbells and Teddy Bridgewaters.

The only QB off the top of my head who was drafted after 20 in the first round and was a good player within his first few years was Lamar.

Off the top of my head, Aaron Rodgers was drafted in the 20s.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Off the top of my head, Aaron Rodgers was drafted in the 20s.

Yeah but that’s what I meant by being good in the first couple of years. Like Rodgers and Love, I can’t imagine you’ll let Dak walk so you can draft a first round QB who’ll sit until 2028

 

[Diehardblues]

Cowboys 1st round QB’s:

1959- Merideth 1st Cowboys player signed as we didn’t have any draft picks first season

1964- 10th round “future” pick on Staubach who was going to Navy for 5 years or he would have been a 1st round pick

1965-1st round pick on Morton who turned out to be the longest tenured QB (18 years) ever drafted by the Cowboys and 1st NFL QB to lead 2 different teams to a SB(Dallas & Denver)

1989- 1st pick Troy Aikman

1989 supplemental 1st round pick- Steve Walsh who we received 3 draft picks ( a 1st, 2nd & 3rd round ) which we used for Erik Williams and traded the other two picks to draft Russell Maryland.

I’d call this a tremendous track record in 1st round. Perhaps we are to due for a couple bust.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yea. I thought it was about 50% which is enough for franchises to continue reaching.

But I’d bet the higher you pick the greater those odds are.

There was a stat a few years ago that represented 80% of SB winning QB’s were drafted in 1st round.

It’s definitely the place to start even if you strike out. Gotta keep swinging until you hit.

Correction : it was 80% SB winning QB’s were drafted in 1st or 2nd round

 

[DandyDon52]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

As long as dak is here, jerry wont draft a QB in round 1, much less the top 10.
The one time he had a shot to do that in 2016, they had spot 4 and picked a RB lol.
You cant trust the "experts" who rate the draft picks ,or the fact the guy had good college career.

Trey lance is a good example of a guy who should not have been a round 1 pick, but he was picked very high in Rd 1.
Later they realize oops we didnt look close enough at this guy, and so they had to unload him.
Very wisely they called jerry, and caught him alone lol . Now dallas has him.

Most qb's go to teams with bad plan, coaches, OC, and they dont design a offense for him , they try to force him
into a offense they think is good.

Most QB's are just bus drivers of varying quality, and it is up to the coaches to utilize them in the best way possible,
and that rarely happens.

About dallas trying to draft a good one, if you dont swing your not going to hit anything. You have to take chances.
also get good at evaluating college prospects.

 

[KingCorcoran]

In all fairness Bob, Jones and Murray’s teams haven’t won a playoff game.
It’s the most important position on the team, but it takes a team to win.

Jones did, I think.

 

[JoeKing]

The most important position on an NFL football field is obviously QB. The reason those guys get paid so much money is really very simple economics - supply and demand. The demand for good QBs is extremely high, but the supply for great ones is low. That explains why most NFL teams use premium first round draft capital to try and acquire a QB that can take them to the playoffs and win.

According to a recent article by USA Today that looks at first round positional players the last 20 years, the odds of drafting a QB that becomes a success in round one is about 46%. That’s actually higher than I expected. (Here’s a link to the article: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2024...rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/) Obviously you can’t hit on a top NFL QB if you never try.

It’s common knowledge that the Dallas Cowboys have not drafted a QB in round one in 35 years. The last time was 1989, when Troy Aikman was drafted with the first draft pick of the Jerry era. The team hasn’t drafted a QB in round one since. Will we see a first round QB in Big D in the next two years?

Here are the odds of first round position players drafted in the first round having success:

• Center……..92%
• OT………..59%
• Guard…….50%
• LB…………48%
• QB……….46%
• Edge R…..44%
• DT………..40%

I‘m not going to list all positions. Tap the link to the article to see every position and their likelihood of success as a first round pick. It is interesting that drafting an OL in round one is something the Cowboys have done well.

If Dak gets a new deal in the next 3-12 months, I expect it to be for a shorter duration. If it is, it would certainly open the door for the Cowboys to draft a QB in round one and bring him along similar to how the chiefs developed Mahomes under Alex Smith, Rodgers under Favre, etc.

Not saying I think that will happen because I don‘t think our front office likes taking risks anymore.

Put on the brakes! We have a preseason game in 25 days. Trey Lance will be on full display. Shouldn't we wait and see how he performs before going down this road you're so ready to go down? The next draft is a long way away and what we will need at that time is unknown.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I posted the article link because I wanted to show everyone who thinks it’s easy to get a good QB there’s only a 46% chance of hitting on one in round one. Which is actually better than I expected. And it certainly reinforces the idea that you miss every shot you never take.

My #1 beef with the FO and their approach to QB's. I've long been an advocate of drafting a QB every other year. Invest some kind of capital into the most important position in pro sports.

 

[Bobhaze]

All NFL first round drafted quarterbacks from 1960 - present (link)

Year	Round	Pick	Name	Team	College
2024​	1​	1​	Caleb Williams	Bears	USC
2023​	1​	1​	Bryce Young	Panthers	Alabama
2022​	1​	20​	Kenny Pickett	Steelers	Pittsburgh
2021​	1​	1​	Trevor Lawrence	Jaguars	Clemson
2020​	1​	1​	Joe Burrow	Bengals	Louisiana State
2019​	1​	1​	Kyler Murray	Cardinals	Oklahoma
2018​	1​	1​	Baker Mayfield	Browns	Oklahoma
2017​	1​	2​	Mitchell Trubisky	Bears	North Carolina
2016​	1​	1​	Jared Goff	Rams	California
2015​	1​	1​	Jameis Winston	Buccaneers	Florida State
2014​	1​	3​	Blake Bortles	Jaguars	Central Florida
2013​	1​	16​	EJ Manuel	Bills	Florida State
2012​	1​	1​	Andrew Luck	Colts	Stanford
2011s	3​	0​	Terrelle Pryor	Raiders	Ohio State
2011​	1​	1​	Cam Newton	Panthers	Auburn
2010​	1​	1​	Sam Bradford	Rams	Oklahoma
2009​	1​	1​	Matthew Stafford	Lions	Georgia
2008​	1​	3​	Matt Ryan	Falcons	Boston College
2007​	1​	1​	JaMarcus Russell	Raiders	Louisiana State
2006​	1​	3​	Vince Young	Titans	Texas
2005​	1​	1​	Alex Smith	49ers	Utah
2004​	1​	1​	Eli Manning	Chargers	Mississippi
2003​	1​	1​	Carson Palmer	Bengals	USC
2002​	1​	1​	David Carr	Texans	Fresno State
2001​	1​	1​	Michael Vick	Falcons	Virginia Tech
2000​	1​	18​	Chad Pennington	Jets	Marshall
1999​	1​	1​	Tim Couch	Browns	Kentucky
1998​	1​	1​	Peyton Manning	Colts	Tennessee
1997​	1​	26​	Jim Druckenmiller	49ers	Virginia Tech
1996​	2​	12​	Tony Banks	Rams	Michigan State
1995​	1​	3​	Steve McNair	Oilers	Alcorn State
1994​	1​	3​	Heath Shuler	Commanders	Tennessee
1993​	1​	1​	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	Washington State
1992s	1​	0​	Dave Brown	Giants	Duke
1992​	1​	6​	David Klingler	Bengals	Houston
1991​	1​	16​	Dan McGwire	Seahawks	San Diego State
1990​	1​	1​	Jeff George	Colts	Illinois
1989s	1​	0​	Steve Walsh	Cowboys	Miami (FL)
1989​	1​	1​	Troy Aikman	Cowboys	UCLA
1988​	3​	13​	Tom Tupa	Cardinals	Ohio State
1987​	1​	1​	Vinny Testaverde	Buccaneers	Miami (FL)
1986​	1​	3​	Jim Everett	Oilers	Purdue
1985s	1​	0​	Bernie Kosar	Browns	Miami (FL)
1985​	2​	9​	Randall Cunningham	Eagles	UNLV
1984u	1​	1​	Steve Young	Buccaneers	Brigham Young
1984​	2​	10​	Boomer Esiason	Bengals	Maryland
1983​	1​	1​	John Elway	Colts	Stanford
1982​	1​	4​	Art Schlichter	Colts	Ohio State
1981s	1​	0​	Dave Wilson	Saints	Illinois
1981​	1​	6​	Rich Campbell	Packers	California
1980​	1​	15​	Marc Wilson	Raiders	Brigham Young
1979​	1​	3​	Jack Thompson	Bengals	Washington State
1978​	1​	17​	Doug Williams	Buccaneers	Grambling State
1977​	1​	19​	Steve Pisarkiewicz	Cardinals	Missouri
1976​	1​	6​	Richard Todd	Jets	Alabama
1975​	1​	1​	Steve Bartkowski	Falcons	California
1974​	3​	1​	Danny White	Cowboys	Arizona State
1973​	1​	2​	Bert Jones	Colts	Louisiana State
1972​	1​	11​	Jerry Tagge	Packers	Nebraska
1971​	1​	1​	Jim Plunkett	Patriots	Stanford
1970​	1​	1​	Terry Bradshaw	Steelers	Louisiana Tech
1969​	1​	5​	Greg Cook	Bengals	Cincinnati
1968​	1​	11​	Greg Landry	Lions	Massachusetts
1967​	1​	3​	Steve Spurrier	49ers	Florida
1966​	1​	16​	Randy Johnson	Falcons	Texas A&I
1965​	1​	1​	Joe Namath	Jets	Alabama
1964​	1​	5​	Pete Beathard	Lions	USC
1963​	1​	1​	Terry Baker	Rams	Oregon State
1962​	1​	1​	Roman Gabriel	Raiders	North Carolina State
1961​	1​	2​	Norm Snead	Commanders	Wake Forest
1960​	1​	2​	George Izo	Cardinals	Notre Dame

Legend
s = Supplemental draft pick
u = USFL & CFL players for NFL supplemental draft pick

I could be wrong DE, but this appears to be a list of the first QBs taken in each draft, not every first round QB pick. There are a few years where no QB was taken in round one.

 

[Bobhaze]

As long as dak is here, jerry wont draft a QB in round 1, much less the top 10.
The one time he had a shot to do that in 2016, they had spot 4 and picked a RB lol.
You cant trust the "experts" who rate the draft picks ,or the fact the guy had good college career.

Trey lance is a good example of a guy who should not have been a round 1 pick, but he was picked very high in Rd 1.
Later they realize oops we didnt look close enough at this guy, and so they had to unload him.
Very wisely they called jerry, and caught him alone lol . Now dallas has him.

Most qb's go to teams with bad plan, coaches, OC, and they dont design a offense for him , they try to force him
into a offense they think is good.

Most QB's are just bus drivers of varying quality, and it is up to the coaches to utilize them in the best way possible,
and that rarely happens.

About dallas trying to draft a good one, if you dont swing your not going to hit anything. You have to take chances.
also get good at evaluating college prospects.

Well said.

 

[Bobhaze]

Jones did, I think.

Daniel Jones is 0-1 in the playoffs.
(EDIT: Oops, I was wrong. Daniel Jones is 1-1 in the playoffs)

 

[Cowboysheelsreds053]

As long as Jerry is making the choice it wont matter.

LOL

 

[Rockport]

My #1 beef with the FO and their approach to QB's. I've long been an advocate of drafting a QB every other year. Invest some kind of capital into the most important position in pro sports.

That’s always been MM’s approach. I guess Jerry didn’t like it.

 

[75boyz]

I have serious doubts this org pulls the trigger on a round one QB as well.

I posted the article link because I wanted to show everyone who thinks it’s easy to get a good QB there’s only a 46% chance of hitting on one in round one. Which is actually better than I expected. And it certainly reinforces the idea that you miss every shot you never take.

46 percent, so almost a 50-50 chance of success.
I'll take those odds.

Too bad Jerry won't.
There is a HUGE number of Zoners who fall under the risk averse to QB change category here.

And the infamous "gotta have a guaranteed improvement plan" or I'd rather stick with one and done mediocrity.
They're my favorite.
Theyre like little Jerry voices and don't even realize it or just can't comprehend change is good.

 

[75boyz]

Daniel Jones is 0-1 in the playoffs.

He beat Minnesota in 2022.

 

[Bobhaze]

He beat Minnesota in 2022.

My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

 

[shabazz]

They have a 1st round QB they gave a 4th round for.
And some still do not like it.

#9 was a 1st round quarterback and we didn't give ANY pick for him.

With their combined playoff record of 4-9 I dont see why there's a need to change the process.

Don't fix it if it ain't broke......we should have never given up on DeNucci so fast. He could have been Daks heir apparent without breaking a stride

 

[shabazz]

My mistake. Thanks for the correction.

It's a common error.......Jones rushed the ball around 17 times and most people thought he was a RB

 

[doomsday9084]

This could go in multiple threads but this seems to be a level headed discussion so I will put it here.

If Dak is adamant about a short deal so that he can sign another big contract after this one, Dallas may be screwed. Between Dak's remaining cap hit plus his new deal, his cap hit could be ginormous. Like, to the point where Dallas would struggle to field a reasonable team. Let's go extreme and say he wants a 3 year $160m deal which would be in line with what others are getting. Well, the $40m remaining from his current deal rolls on top of that. That's 3/200 of QB pay. Maybe you extend that with some void years again but you probably get the picture. A short term deal is real trouble for Dallas.

If that is where we are at, draft pick here we come.