I'm done with over-analyzation

[CyberB0b]

But if their grades are close AT ALL, teams value player B more.

Then their process is screwed up. Broaddus calls this window dressing your board. Similar to what the Cowboys did with Floyd.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Then their process is screwed up. Broaddus calls this window dressing your board. Similar to what the Cowboys did with Floyd.

Then their board isn't BPA. BPA means best player available.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Ellis was a goof player. He really took it to another level when Parcells got here.

With that said.. He's not worthy of a top 5 pick.

If we want to move back and get more picks then i'm fine taking Bosa.

lol, I assume you meant good, since the rest of your post was complimentary of him, but let's look at a few past #4 picks

2015- Amari Cooper
2014- Sammy Watkins
2013- Lane Johnson
2012- Matt Kalil
2011- AJ Green
2010- Trent Williams
2009- Aaron Curry
2008- Darren McFadden
2007- Gaines Adams
2006- D'Brickshaw Ferguson
2005- Cedrick Benson
2004- Phillip Rivers
2003- Dwayne Robertson
2002- Mike Williams
2001- Justin Smith
2000- Peter Warrick

Based off this pick we have about a 50% chance of getting a player that produces better than Greg Ellis. I'm not saying Ellis should have been the #4 pick when he came out or even Greg Ellis the prospect would be the 4th best prospect in 2016, I'm just saying if we were to land a guy that when he's injury free gets 8 or 9 sacks almost every year, it wouldn't be that bad.

 

[YosemiteSam]

So Tunsil is your guy?

I'm probably open to Tunsil, Elloit, and Ramsey, but if I had to pick right now, I go with Tunsil.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I don't want to go too much more into it. Luck wasn't the best example, because he was considered elite. Maybe Newton or Winston are better. But the point was simply this: Player A might be a better RB than player is B a QB. But if their grades are close AT ALL, teams value player B more.

Sure, because there's a positional adjustment: a QB is simply worth more than an RB. A 99th-percentile RB may be worth the same as, I don't know, a 50th percentile QB. That needs to be factored into your rankings. Note that this has nothing to do with team need.

Another example: The Colts, Titans, Bucs, and Panthers aren't drafting a QB in the first 2 rounds. Period. That doesn't mean they don't buy into the general theory of BPA.

Right. And if a QB should be the BPA at their point in the draft, they should be working hard to trade down. Which the Titans already have. If they can't trade down, then yeah, they may have to take a lower-ranked guy. Not demanding absolute purity here.

But really, QB is about the only position where this is an issue. Tailback maybe, too, in the first couple rounds, if you have a top guy in the first couple years of his rookie contract. For just about every other position, you should be able to find a way to use new talent, especially if it's top talent. The number of times where (a) there's a single clear BPA, who (b) plays a position at which you're absolutely loaded, are going to be extremely rare. So it's not worth worrying about too much.

 

[ConceptCoop]

Sure, because there's a positional adjustment: a QB is simply worth more than an RB. A 99th-percentile RB may be worth the same as, I don't know, a 50th percentile QB. That needs to be factored into your rankings. Note that this has nothing to do with team need.

Right. And if a QB should be the BPA at their point in the draft, they should be working hard to trade down. Which the Titans already have. If they can't trade down, then yeah, they may have to take a lower-ranked guy. Not demanding absolute purity here.

But really, QB is about the only position where this is an issue. Tailback maybe, too, in the first couple rounds, if you have a top guy in the first couple years of his rookie contract. For just about every other position, you should be able to find a way to use new talent, especially if it's top talent. The number of times where (a) there's a single clear BPA, who (b) plays a position at which you're absolutely loaded, are going to be extremely rare. So it's not worth worrying about too much.

If you aren't suggesting that teams do/should take BPA as gospel, then we don't have a disagreement. We can quibble about when and where need fits, but we agree that it does.

 

[visionary]

Analysts are saying 2nd - 3rd round. Nothing is for certain with any prospect. He could bust just like anyone else. But if you have him a grade of 88 and the next best player was 86, you'd take the K?

If he is RKG if taking him at 4

RKG
RKG

That is how you build a team

 

[jday]

If he is the next Adam Vinatieri, yes. Otherwise, it's highly likely he isn't the BPA.

You do realize our current kicker is presently the most accurate kicker of all time, right?

 

[Rogerthat12]

How does that not have a million likes?

Time to have fun people even if you disagree it is funny!

I agree, it should have more likes!

 

[Chuck 54]

I should have never posted this thread. I hate you guys.

Now I'm back on Ramsey....oh the insanity!

 

[YosemiteSam]

You do realize our current kicker is presently the most accurate kicker of all time, right?

That fact isn't lost on me, but your reasoning for asking is. What does our current kicker have to do with this draft? Absolutely nothing. The fact that whomever it was brought up a useless non-relative asinine and impossible scenario for this draft did so because his point had no basis so he does what most people who find they are wrong do. Try to drum up an ignorant impossible situation (hyperbole) as a tool to prove a point that they can't prove with facts.

Remember that. When someone says something outlandish or non-relative. They are trying to compensate for their losing argument. Why do you think politicians always say outlandish craps during an election? It's because they know they are either wrong or know the voters won't something different, so they try to swing the vote by trying to engage the voters emotionally rather than their sensibilities. You can get weak minded people to be become suicide bombers if you attack their emotions.

 

[StarBoyz83]

#4 has for sure been debated to death. They just need a really good draft all together. Dallas is a year or 2 away from contending so this isn't the only important thing for them to do.

Cb, safety, lb, wr, dl all need to be addressed.

 

[jday]

That fact isn't lost on me, but your reasoning for asking is. What does our current kicker have to do with this draft? Absolutely nothing. The fact that whomever it was brought up a useless non-relative asinine and impossible scenario for this draft did so because his point had no basis so he does what most people who find they are wrong do. Try to drum up an ignorant impossible situation (hyperbole) as a tool to prove a point that they can't prove with facts.

Remember that. When someone says something outlandish or non-relative. They are trying to compensate for their losing argument. Why do you think politicians always say outlandish craps during an election? It's because they know they are either wrong or know the voters won't something different, so they try to swing the vote by trying to engage the voters emotionally rather than their sensibilities. You can get weak minded people to be become suicide bombers if you attack their emotions.

Your correct in your diagnosis of his method of argument, however, I don't think his point is losing. Let me take another stab at it:

Let's say the BPA (as labeled by the mediots and talking heads, not necessarily the team's draft board, which is an important distinction) is a guy best suited for DE in the 34. Considering the scenario where a trade down is not an option, do you take him despite the fact that he will likely disappear in your scheme?

 

[YosemiteSam]

Your correct in your diagnosis of his method of argument, however, I don't think his point is losing. Let me take another stab at it:

Let's say the BPA (as labeled by the mediots and talking heads, not necessarily the team's draft board, which is an important distinction) is a guy best suited for DE in the 34. Considering the scenario where a trade down is not an option, do you take him despite the fact that he will likely disappear in your scheme?

You have a twenty dollar bill. You want to make change so you can give a tip, but all I have is a five and five ones. Do you make change with me? I hope so, I will make $10 on this if you do.

So will the guy behind you in the draft.

 

[Rogerthat12]

I should have never posted this thread. I hate you guys.

Now I'm back on Ramsey....oh the insanity!

I am just playing around, sorry for the grief, though I do not want Bosa.

 

[jday]

You have a twenty dollar bill. You want to make change so you can give a tip, but all I have is a five and five ones. Do you make change with me? I hope so, I will make $10 on this if you do.

So will the guy behind you in the draft.

I really enjoyed the retort. I award extra credit for creativeness. That said, my point is you draft the guy who stands to make the highest impact to the overall team. QB, by default, comes in first, particularly if there is an equal measure of need. But I'd argue for the cowboys current cast of characters and their scheme running back is in the top 5 of potential impact. So from my point of view, Zeke would be an excellent addition despite what the mediots who have no idea what the cowboys have on their draft board will tell you to the contrary.

 

[darthseinfeld]

There's a K projected to go in the 3rd. If he's BPA in the 4th, would you take him?

I take him in the 2nd to make sure I dont miss

May trade in to the bottom so I can get the option year

 

[Spectre]

Of the 23 All Pros (excluding kickers) from this season, 14 came from the 1st round (another 6 came from the 2nd and 3rd rounds combined,with three coming from each). 9 of those 23 came in the top ten. Your talent is at the top of the round, percentage wise.

I get where you're coming from, in general, but the percentages say "Don't **** this up!" when you're picking in the top 10.

I mostly agree. But a better stat would be... what percentage of players picked in the top 10 went on to have highly successful careers in the NFL, over say, the last 10-15 years? That will coincide overwhelmingly with who was ranked as a top 10 prospect, prior to draft, as well. I bet it's less than 50%. Just a guess.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If you aren't suggesting that teams do/should take BPA as gospel, then we don't have a disagreement. We can quibble about when and where need fits, but we agree that it does.

Right. But my point is that it's very rare that need should play a significant role. For nearly all picks, sticking by BPA will be the best approach.

 

[ConceptCoop]

I'd say more often than rare, but that's my opinion. I think teams do, and should, place guys in tiers and draft based on need within those tiers. If Tunsil is on a tier of his own, for example, we should take him. If he grades out on the same tier as Ramsey, we should take Ramsey.