Inside the Numbers: Terrell Owens Myths

[28 Joker]

I don't see why so many people are ready to go into next year with Roy Williams as our #1 receiver, Owens at 36 is faster and more explosive than Roy E, and he also demands more attention from defenses.

Give Owens Roy's coverage and he will wear them out each week, Owens saw more doubles this year than his entire career, and at 35 they aren't just doing it out of respect.

I'll tell you why.

Justin Gage

 

[CF74]

The point is, the other receivers considered elite are receiving the same type coverage and they are still getting it done. Owens is not.

If you think teams aren't doubling Steve Smith, for example, you're kidding yourself. Same with Andre Johnson. That what makes you elite - you produce even though everyone gameplans for you.

Are they running the same routes? Do they have Jason Garrett calling the plays? Change up the play calling to TO's strengths or get him out of here but when you do, don't cry about 8 in the box stuffing the run...

 

[CF74]

run the ball and stop sending every wr 20 yards downfield on passing plays.

Tell that to G-A-R-R-E-T-T.

 

[Rampage]

Tell that to G-A-R-R-E-T-T.

I would if I could. but i'm just a fan.

 

[28 Joker]

So if 2 guys are shading him every play, shouldn't other receivers and tight ends be getting one on one coverage? Thats right... None of them can get any separation, and outside of a lot of hope in Miles Austin, letting Owens walk would hurt our passing game a lot more than people are willing to admit right now.

While Owens was torching some of the best cornerbacks in 2007, at times, he saw double and triple teams. He got bracket coverage. This year, as a rule, he couldn't beat the real good corners. He couldn't shake bracket coverage, and he couldn't get off the line on a consistent basis. The Packers gave the blue-print, and the Commanders did the same thing to him. The 49ers didn't get the memo, because the rest of the league took the blue-print. Owens isn't a receiver that should have 140-150 balls thrown his way, anymore. His 65.8 YPG is telling. Furthermore, he thinks he is that guy.

K.C. Joyner, according to Vela, has Owens' 2008 YPA down to 7.5 YPA for 14 games (Last Eagles and Commanders game not included). His YPA was 9.7 in 2007, and that was outstanding.

Against Joyner's 'red' or best corners in 2007, Owens put up a 9.4 YPA. That is torching them, and it is number one WR production.

However, Joyner has Owens only putting up a 2.0 YPA against 'red' corners this year, on an 8 game sample. Half the returns are not in, but 2.0 YPA is in Patrick Crayton territory.

Here is Owens' YPA for the last 5 years:

2004: 9.3 Eagles Super Bowl Year
2005: 8.7 Sit-ups in Driveway Year, and that is a real good YPA.
2006: 8.0 Parcells
2007: 9.7 Garrett's Passing Game
2008: 7.5 *two games missing*

Owens' YPA declined in three of the four years. He had his very best YPA under the guy he blames his "numbers" on this year. In fact, it was one of his best season.

When you go from 9.4 YPA to 2.0 YPA , even in an 8 game sample, that can't be all Jason Garrett's fault.

 

[CF74]

I would if I could. but i'm just a fan.

http://startelegrameditwriters.typepad.com/letters_to_the_startelegr/dallas_cowboys/
Standing pat not an option play

I’m just a fan.
I remember walking out on my front porch in Dallas when I was 4 years old to gawk at the blimp hovering over the Cotton Bowl while the Cowboys were playing. I was at the very first event at Texas Stadium (a Billy Graham crusade) so I could see my hero Johnny Cash. I remember Whistling Ray, Tom Landry, Roger Staubach, Tony Dorsett, Harvey Martin, Randy White, Too Tall and, of course, the players Jerry Jones brought in and won three Super Bowls with.
I cried when the Cowboys lost to the Steelers in 1975; I screamed “He caught it!” when Alvin Harper went over the top of a 49er defender to pull in a bomb from Troy Aikman in the NFC championship; and I pumped my fist when Emmitt Smith screamed at the cameras in the second Super Bowl against the Bills.
I’m just a fan.
I’ve been on the big screen at the stadium several times with my face all painted up, cheering the Cowboys. I held a sign up for the cameras several times, and I was there when Tony Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe. I set aside my Saturday to watch the draft each year, and Jones even gave my sister an autograph! On a $100 bill no less. She framed it.
Jerry Jones takes a lot of criticism, but let me say thank you for his passion for the Cowboys, for the hard work, the drive, and for always looking for ways to improve, get better and win championships. As a fan, and as a sports guy, I’ve always respected him for that.
So I want Jones to know that it’s not the current mess the Cowboys are in that gets me; it’s being satisfied and standing pat with this current mess that does. In all honesty, I can’t root for this current group like I’ve rooted before. The competitor in me recoils at the whining, the finger-pointing, the blaming-anyone-but-myself attitude, and the inability to take responsibility or even show fire in the heat of battle.
Win or lose, the Dallas Cowboys are supposed to be warriors, not ... this.
I love the Cowboys, and I appreciate Jones an owner, but I’m not buying tickets to watch this particular group of guys, nor am I buying their merchandise. Not now. It’s no fun to watch me-first, self-centered babies who don’t compete but instead complain. It’s no fun to watch undisciplined, unprepared performances. It’s no fun to watch a leaderless team with no direction, no fire, and no identity except that of a prima-donna.
I’m just a fan.
Whatever Jones has to do, whatever risks he has to take, whatever bullet he has to bite, we’ll be behind him. But if the Cowboys stand pat, and stay satisfied with the status quo, I’ll need a break from the Cowboys for awhile.
And I’m not the only one.
— Brian Ingall, Mountain View, Mo.

 

[Bleu Star]

:fogeys: :banjo: :fogeys: yeeeeehawwww

 

[burmafrd]

My question is how many times was Owens caught from behind?
As regards to DCFANATIC- yes Witten is more consistent. BUT who is a bigger threat? I reallly doubt you will find any DC's that THEN pick Witten over TO.

 

[Rampage]

http://startelegrameditwriters.typepad.com/letters_to_the_startelegr/dallas_cowboys/
Standing pat not an option play

I’m just a fan.
I remember walking out on my front porch in Dallas when I was 4 years old to gawk at the blimp hovering over the Cotton Bowl while the Cowboys were playing. I was at the very first event at Texas Stadium (a Billy Graham crusade) so I could see my hero Johnny Cash. I remember Whistling Ray, Tom Landry, Roger Staubach, Tony Dorsett, Harvey Martin, Randy White, Too Tall and, of course, the players Jerry Jones brought in and won three Super Bowls with.
I cried when the Cowboys lost to the Steelers in 1975; I screamed “He caught it!” when Alvin Harper went over the top of a 49er defender to pull in a bomb from Troy Aikman in the NFC championship; and I pumped my fist when Emmitt Smith screamed at the cameras in the second Super Bowl against the Bills.
I’m just a fan.
I’ve been on the big screen at the stadium several times with my face all painted up, cheering the Cowboys. I held a sign up for the cameras several times, and I was there when Tony Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe. I set aside my Saturday to watch the draft each year, and Jones even gave my sister an autograph! On a $100 bill no less. She framed it.
Jerry Jones takes a lot of criticism, but let me say thank you for his passion for the Cowboys, for the hard work, the drive, and for always looking for ways to improve, get better and win championships. As a fan, and as a sports guy, I’ve always respected him for that.
So I want Jones to know that it’s not the current mess the Cowboys are in that gets me; it’s being satisfied and standing pat with this current mess that does. In all honesty, I can’t root for this current group like I’ve rooted before. The competitor in me recoils at the whining, the finger-pointing, the blaming-anyone-but-myself attitude, and the inability to take responsibility or even show fire in the heat of battle.
Win or lose, the Dallas Cowboys are supposed to be warriors, not ... this.
I love the Cowboys, and I appreciate Jones an owner, but I’m not buying tickets to watch this particular group of guys, nor am I buying their merchandise. Not now. It’s no fun to watch me-first, self-centered babies who don’t compete but instead complain. It’s no fun to watch undisciplined, unprepared performances. It’s no fun to watch a leaderless team with no direction, no fire, and no identity except that of a prima-donna.
I’m just a fan.
Whatever Jones has to do, whatever risks he has to take, whatever bullet he has to bite, we’ll be behind him. But if the Cowboys stand pat, and stay satisfied with the status quo, I’ll need a break from the Cowboys for awhile.
And I’m not the only one.
— Brian Ingall, Mountain View, Mo.

that's my feeling right there.

 

[RainMan]

I've already stated I'm not entirely against getting rid of T.O. But I don't buy the gist of the original analysis.

The writer suggests we "remove" the 49ers game. Are we then allowed to also remove the three games he had Brad Johnson/Brooks Bollinger throwing him the football?

Look, T.O. probably isn't the receiver he was even in 2007, when he was legitimately the second best in the league. But if we're releasing him, it's not because of his talent or lack thereof.

 

[Nav22]

I'm not sure that I can even name 47 NFL receivers.

After reading your article, I'm sure you can't.

Not surprising. I remember a point during the 2006 season when all T.O.'s haters called him the 2nd best WR on the team, behind Terry Glenn.

Then 2007 happened and they had to begrudgingly bite their tongue. Since '08 was a down year, the absurdity is back in full force.

Again, no surprise. Just like it won't be a surprise when he's inducted into Canton for being one of the very best WRs to ever play the game.

T.O. is much closer to Isaac Bruce and Desmond Mason

That's quite a compliment to T.O. It's common knowledge that basketball is his first love.

(Desmond Mason plays for the NBA's Oklahoma City Thunder... the idiotic author must've meant DERRICK Mason, Ravens WR)

Can't name 47 WRs, indeed...

Justin Cage

Who?

T.O. complains about Romo,

No, he doesn't.

And I'm sure guys like Steve Breaston, Lance Moore, and Eddie Royal attract the same attention from defenses as Terrell Owens.

GREAT ARTICLE LOLZ ROFLMAO!!11!

 

[jterrell]

More humorous stuff.

Gotta love it really. Just how far from logical people are willing to be to make a point they really can't make.

T.O. in a down year for him and this offense finished with the 6th most receiving TDs in the NFL. He finished 12th in receiving yardage. And for all the hilarity involved in trying to dismiss his 200+ yard game t.o. actually still scored 9 TDs in the the other 15 games. That is outstanding production.

His total catches were down but so was the completion percentage at QB.

Show me the stats for what Joyner has the other Cowboy WRs at for instance.

Looking at T.O.'s stats it is clear he had a down year which is still within his normal range tho on the low end. But his stats are still clearly #1 WR numbers and his TD production is still elite.

Again if you cut T.O. you do so because of his effect on chemistry not for his play. Those arguing he can't play are deluding themselves. Yes, defenses took him out of games for the most part with a man press at the line and over the top help. But that's why Witten was having a career year until he got hurt himself. Also why Felix Jones had so much free room to roam. Defenses pay for over-emphasizing one guy. At least they do when you have weapons to make them pay.

 

[RainMan]

Another point worth making is that if we're going to delve into T.O.'s game-by-game breakdown and take away his one statistically animal of a game, then you have to also consider doing that for the other receivers in this conversation.

I doubt T.O. is the only player -- receiver or otherwise -- with one giant game helping his stats (and as I posted previously, he also had several Brad Johnson games weighing down his stats; so it works both ways).

 

[AdamJT13]

This is the funniest one of all.

Terrell Owens averaged 4.2 YAC this season. He averaged 4.4 YAC last season.

Marvin Harrison has averaged 4+ YAC only once in his entire career. I guess he was never an elite receiver, either, since "elite receivers don't have 4 yards after the catch." Or maybe he meant it the other way around. Maybe he meant that elite receivers are supposed to average under 4 yards after the catch. I guess that must be it.

I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

Of course T.O. is on the decline.

If you have watched T.O. this year you can see it.

His technique and route running was poor this year. He shys away from contact he goes down like a little girl to not get hit or he tries to make a lame attempt to dance around a guy when he is not agile at all. T.O. is scared to go over the middle. Why do you think he drops the ball when there is traffic around him? T.O. speed is overrated. He has good straight lined speed but a simple jam will negate this so called "speed". His technique is so poor its not even funny. That is why he could not beat jams. Yea he gets doubled but so does Andre Johnson, Steve Smith but they still are able to make the defense look silly.

Hell when Boldin was out with his injury and teams knew that they had to control Fitzgerald by doubling him and rolling coverages to his side he still torched those defenses. If T.O. is so "elite" like some claim how come he still isn't getting his?

At the same time its not all his fault why this offense tanked. Jason Garretts' play calling was horrible. Hell that's generous id say it was HORRENDOUS. I want to see slants and crosses. Not streaks by T.O. because he is not Steve Smith. T.O. is not a deep threat. Where is the balance? Where is the creativity? This offense was too predictable and Garrett wasn't patient with the run.

 

[RainMan]

Of course T.O. is on the decline.

If you have watched T.O. this year you can see it.

His technique and route running was poor this year. He shys away from contact he goes down like a little girl to not get hit or he tries to make a lame attempt to dance around a guy when he is not agile at all. T.O. is scared to go over the middle. Why do you think he drops the ball when there is traffic around him? T.O. speed is overrated. He has good straight lined speed but a simple jam will negate this so called "speed". His technique is so poor its not even funny. That is why he could not beat jams. Yea he gets doubled but so does Andre Johnson, Steve Smith but they still are able to make the defense look silly.

Hell when Boldin was out with his injury and teams knew that they had to control Fitzgerald by doubling him and rolling coverages to his side he still torched those defenses. If T.O. is so "elite" like some claim how come he still isn't getting his?

At the same time its not all his fault why this offense tanked. Jason Garretts' play calling was horrible. Hell that's generous id say it was HORRENDOUS. I want to see slants and crosses. Not streaks by T.O. because he is not Steve Smith. T.O. is not a deep threat. Where is the balance? Where is the creativity? This offense was too predictable and Garrett wasn't patient with the run.

I disagree on Owens not being a deep threat. He consistently got behind coverage this year, and had several sure TDs overthrown (the one against Baltimore comes to mind specifically). I agree with the fact that he wasn't used that greatly, but don't think his deep patterns should be entirely eliminated. He excels at those quite often.

I think his straight-line speed is one element of his game that hasn't yet left with age. Being unable to beat the press and get off the line has nothing to do with that in my opinion.

 

[bsheeern]

I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.

 

[Yoshimitsu]

I disagree on Owens not being a deep threat. He consistently got behind coverage this year, and had several sure TDs overthrown (the one against Baltimore comes to mind specifically). I agree with the fact that he wasn't used that greatly, but don't think his deep patterns should be entirely eliminated. He excels at those quite often.

I think his straight-line speed is one element of his game that hasn't yet left with age. Being unable to beat the press and get off the line has nothing to do with that in my opinion.

He can get behind coverage with his speed when he is not getting jammed. T.O. has to get momentum going for him to turn on the burners. He is not quick off the line like Steve Smith. You give him a clean release and let him get going into his route he is hard to stop because of his momentum. If Terrell Owens technique was good he could beat the jam more often than lose.

 

[bsheeern]

http://www.1053thefan.com/Inside-the-Numbers--Terrell-Owens-Myths/3716024

Blair Green, The Sports Keg

When reports surfaced earlier this week suggesting that the Cowboys may cut ties with polarizing receiver, Terrell Owens, Dallas sports conversations heated up. Just like the locker-room, fans are split: those for T.O. and those against T.O.

While both arguments hold some water, they both generally focus on the divisiveness of Owens along the lines of:

Against - "He has a history of destroying organizations..."
For - "T.O. has changed...don't judge him on his past."

Just for a second, let's ignore the fact that Owens has more baggage than Del Griffin in Planes, Trains and Automobiles. Let's simply focus our attention on T.O.'s on-field production.

Fans like K.B. the Cowboy Homer, a frequent caller on the Ben and Skin show, continue to promote that Owens remains an elite receiver. K.B. has actually perpetuated several T.O. "myths" that need to be debunked:

Myth #1: Owens' year-end stats prove that he is a top-flight receiver.

Let's take a look:

69 catches (22nd in the NFL)
1052 yards (12th...)
65 yards/game (14th...)
15 yards/catch (15th...)
4.2 yards after catch (48th...)
10 Touchdowns (6th...)

Pretty solid numbers and the stats suggest that he might be the 15th-20th best receiver in football. Unfortunately for 'sit-ups-in-my-driveway,' simply looking at year-end numbers doesn't tell the whole story.

Owens had zero 100-yard games through the first 10 games of the season. The "elite" receiver did not even broach the 90-yard mark during that period. Throughout the season, T.O. struggled as each Cowboy opponent pressed him at the line of scrimmage. When did that change? In week 11, when the San Francisco 49ers decided that they were going to play a soft cover-2. Their conservative game-plan allowed Dallas receivers to gain a free release off of the line of scrimmage and provided Owens with space to work.

In that game, Owens caught 7 passes for 213 yards. This was one of two 100-yard receiving games for T.O. during 2008. One of two. In other words, this game was a fluke. The 49ers were the ONLY team that chose not to press Owens at the line of scrimmage. T.O. took advantage. While it was fun to watch, that was not the T.O. that we saw all year. It was the exception...the deviation from the norm...the oddity.

Let's look at Owens' numbers if you remove the 49er-anomaly. For statistical balance, I also excluded his worst statistical performance (2 catches, 17 yards at Green Bay). In other words, throw out his best, throw out his worst and let's see what we get:

14 games
60 catches
822 yards
59 yards/game (27th in the NFL)
13.7 yards/catch (31st...)
9 Touchdowns

So, in 14 of the 16 games, T.O. amassed a very average 57 yards/game. He averaged 13.7 yards/catch. Mediocrity at its best. Which statistics do you believe reflect the "real" Owens? The one game in which the defense backed off? Or the other 15 games in which Owens looked extremely ordinary?

Myth #1...Busted.

Myth #2: As a big-play guy, T.O. consistently threatens opponents with his ability to "break out."

The explosive big-play threat, Owens, totaled six 100-yard games in 2007. In 2008, he produced two. In other words, in 14 games this year, T.O. did not eclipse the century mark in receiving yards. Here is brief list of guys that posted more 100-yard games than Owens:

Andre Johnson (8), Steve Smith (8), Larry Fitzgerald (7), Roddy White (7), Calvin Johnson (5), Greg Jennings (5), Randy Moss (4), Reggie Wayne (4)

I know what you are thinking: 'those are all top-level receivers. There aren't many people that can replicate what guys like Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson bring to the table.' While you are correct, some continue to claim that Owens is an elite receiver...so I thought it might be interesting to compare him to actual top-flight guys.

But then I decided to lower my standards a bit - Owens is 35 - so I created this list of players that also had more 100-yard games during 2008:

Wes Welker (4), Lance Moore (3), Anquan Boldin (3), Brandon Marshall (3), Steve Breaston (3), Eddie Royal (3), Marques Colston (3)

Again, I know what you are thinking: 'OK, but those guys all play in pass-happy systems. Of course guys like Welker and Marshall will amass extensive yardage.'

- So I created this list of guys that play with unproven quarterbacks and/or in a normal offensive-system, and included their number of 100-yard games:

Antonio Bryant (6), Lee Evans (4), Bernard Berrian (4), Hines Ward (4), Vincent Jackson (3), Santana Moss (3), Braylon Edwards (3), Dwayne Bowe (2), Desmond Mason (2), Isaac Bruce (2), Donald Driver (2), Justin Cage (2), Matt Jones (2), Desean Jackson (2), TJ Houshmandzadeh (2), Mark Clayton (2) and Dennis Northcutt (2)

This seriously made me laugh out loud. T.O. complains about Romo, the 8th-highest rated quarterback in the NFL, and the guys listed above are matching Owens' production with quarterbacks like: Jeff Garcia, Gus Frerotte, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Tyler Thigpen, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Ryan Fitzpatrick and David Garrard.

If only T.O. could play with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he would be great again! Sorry T.O., it's just not that hard to find guys that can produce a couple 100-yard games each season. They are all over the place.

Myth #2...Busted.

Myth #3: People continue to proclaim that Owens "hasn't lost a step" and can "still make plays after the catch."

Facts remain the only item that contradicts this claim. Owens averaged 4.2 yards after-the-catch in 2008. That ranked 48th in the NFL. He doesn't make guys miss. He doesn't "run after the catch." Most of the time, T.O. makes a catch and runs out of bounds or does his best "Bambi" impression. 47 other receivers averaged more yards after-the-catch last year than T.O. I'm not sure that I can even name 47 NFL receivers.

Myth #3...Busted.

It all boils down to this: T.O. had one great game in 2008, a game in which the defense decided to play a soft cover-2. In the other 15 games, Owens was extremely ordinary. Sorry, but "elite" receivers don't produce two 100-yard games. "Elite" receivers don't average 4 yards after-the-catch. "Elite" receivers don't lead the league in drops. At this point in his career, T.O. is much closer to Isaac Bruce and Desmond Mason than Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson... but don't expect K.B. the Cowboy Homer to agree.

OK so do the same report on Witten and see what results you get. I guess he sucks now as well.......

 

[Muhast]

Out of all the elite wrs he named, who plays against the best db's 6 times a year? T.O by far. The fact that he put up pretty solid numbers with no romo for 3 weeks(where we had little to no passing game) and then played with romo clearly struggling for a couple games afterwards and still put up a pretty solid year catch,yardage wise (and great year td wise) is impressive.

Who covers Steve Smith most of the year? Barber is the only talented cb Smith faces and Barber had a pretty poor year this year. Nfc south cbs are pretty weak. Same with most of the wr's listed. T.O has by far the best defensive talent secondary wise to compete against.

That is something to at least take in mind.