Inside the Numbers: Terrell Owens Myths

CF74

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Chocolate Lab;2599421 said:
Absolutely. You don't do that to a coach. You just don't.

But what Romo said was still minor compared to sitting down with Deion and saying what I already mentioned.

And everyone should know that I'm no Garrett fan. He's terribly overrated and had an awful year. But no matter how bad he is, that doesn't make it okay to trash the guy like that.

2007 (13-4) was a great year leading up till the December melt down. Many forget we were figured out by the end of the year, so as far as I'm concerned 2007 was nothing more than a stat padding year. 2008 exposed the over rated year we had prior...
 

Alexander

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HoleInTheRoof;2598861 said:
It's not Owens production, or lack thereof, that bothers me.

It's his attitude. I love the competitor, and the guy who stays after practice to help Sam Hurd, etc. I love the guy who chases runs a guy down to make a block on a run play or tackle a corner who got an interception.

I abhor the guy who cries about a "system", or does sit down interviews mid season to whine, or feels he has to hold a PC after every game.

He's getting old, but he's still a force. He's a shell of what he once was, but he can be effective and dangerous. But he needs a hint of humility, as well as a sense of what it takes to be a team player. He needs to understand he isn't the TO that he was just a few years ago. Ergo, he may not be nor should he be the #1 guy.

Only fools start bean counting and point to statistics as a reason to get rid of him.

The value and balance between what he offers on the field and costs in the locker room is what has to be considered.

I have always been supportive of Terrell Owens. It is getting harder and harder to do so any more. We have a soft coaching staff who has allowed him to become even more of a ringleader than he ever has. The only drawback is that he is no longer the best WR in the league or even close to it.

In a perfect circumstance with better leadership from above, Terrell Owens could still be a very valuable piece of a championship team. Without that, then you have to perform a cost analysis.
 

Eskimo

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People keep ignoring the obvious key factor here - age. It catches up with all of us. Jerry Rice who had a great work ethic began to slow down around this age and was not the dominant force he was when he was younger. The same is true of TO.

He is now just an okay #1WR - he is not elite and probably not worth the headache anymore. He is also definitely not worth his contract. Jones lost his leverage the moment he gave him that bonus and continues to prove that he is not a savvy GM.
 

LittleBoyBlue

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Eskimo;2599657 said:
People keep ignoring the obvious key factor here - age. It catches up with all of us. Jerry Rice who had a great work ethic began to slow down around this age and was not the dominant force he was when he was younger. The same is true of TO.

He is now just an okay #1WR - he is not elite and probably not worth the headache anymore. He is also definitely not worth his contract. Jones lost his leverage the moment he gave him that bonus and continues to prove that he is not a savvy GM.


Jerry Rice never put up double digit TD's again after age 34.

TO age 35 = 10 without Romo for 3 games.


And lets not forget that Rice blew out his knee and THAT is a part of the reason why he wasnt the same.
 

coogrfan

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shaketiller;2599206 said:
Football isn't and and never has been a sport that lends itself well to statistical analysis. It's too much a team sport for stats to be easily isolated and distilled. That said, I find it rich that a couple of the folks posting in this thread are being schoolmarmish about this particular analysis. I've easily seen similar holes in analysis done by them pertaining to other players. I also find it a bit rich that some guys who have written, "Show me proof," now basically yawn in the face of the attempt.

I think there are enough statistics available to support the claim that Owens is a declining player. I don't think last year's stats alone offer strong support, though.

But I can see. My eyes tell me Owens is still a good player, but he is no longer a great player. My brain knows Owens has always had holes in his game, but his great physical talent more than compensated for those holes. As his physical talent has declined, that isn't so much the case anymore. Owens is a declining player, and the decline is likely to accelerate. That's the reality of athletics, and the man is a human being.

Still, the man has ability. He's a good player. Based on his physical skills alone, unless the team could derive a significant financial benefit, you wouldn't cut him. Given his eroding talent, though, you might be more inclined to decide the negatives now outweight the positives, especially considering the mounting evidence of the problems he caused -- and while many might want to ignore the evidence, or explain it away, the evidence is readily available.

The Owens apologists have been very quick to make ad hominem attacks against any line of criticism and against any evidence. They have attacked an entire profession, and they have argued that the inclusion of anything that happened in San Francisco and in Philadelphia is somehow out of bounds. They have resorted to childish name calling, in some cases, and in others, they have employed the thinly veiled code word "hater." When people have posted audio clips, video clips and stats, they've ridiculed the evidence. I can't even name, at this point, the long list of commentators, ex-players, ex-coaches, sportswriters, etcetera, who have been called hacks, sleaze, rumormongers or whatever.

And it's all in the service of Owens.

None of that is surprising. The ironic aspect of the Owens problem is it wouldn't exist if he were not a charismatic, compelling figure. It's his charisma and ability to gain support that creates the opportunity for damage. Combine those traits with many years of breathtaking performances on the football field, and it is not at all surprising Owens would have his supporters.

In the meantime, Valley Ranch burns.

Excellent post.

It is inevitable that as Owens gets older his physical tools are going to erode. As a result he will at some point become more trouble than he is worth.

The question the Cowboys face is the one every team faces with a great player: is it better to let him go a year too soon, or a year too late?
 

khiladi

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41gy#;2598903 said:
While Owens was torching some of the best cornerbacks in 2007, at times, he saw double and triple teams. He got bracket coverage. This year, as a rule, he couldn't beat the real good corners. He couldn't shake bracket coverage, and he couldn't get off the line on a consistent basis. The Packers gave the blue-print, and the Commanders did the same thing to him. The 49ers didn't get the memo, because the rest of the league took the blue-print. Owens isn't a receiver that should have 140-150 balls thrown his way, anymore. His 65.8 YPG is telling. Furthermore, he thinks he is that guy.

K.C. Joyner, according to Vela, has Owens' 2008 YPA down to 7.5 YPA for 14 games (Last Eagles and Commanders game not included). His YPA was 9.7 in 2007, and that was outstanding.

Against Joyner's 'red' or best corners in 2007, Owens put up a 9.4 YPA. That is torching them, and it is number one WR production.

However, Joyner has Owens only putting up a 2.0 YPA against 'red' corners this year, on an 8 game sample. Half the returns are not in, but 2.0 YPA is in Patrick Crayton territory.

Here is Owens' YPA for the last 5 years:

2004: 9.3 Eagles Super Bowl Year
2005: 8.7 Sit-ups in Driveway Year, and that is a real good YPA.
2006: 8.0 Parcells
2007: 9.7 Garrett's Passing Game
2008: 7.5 *two games missing*

Owens' YPA declined in three of the four years. He had his very best YPA under the guy he blames his "numbers" on this year. In fact, it was one of his best season.

When you go from 9.4 YPA to 2.0 YPA , even in an 8 game sample, that can't be all Jason Garrett's fault.

Does Joyner's analysis include the 'red corner' coverage with help over the top as well? Nate Clements is a red corner coverage guy and he got abused in single coverage, did he not?
 

khiladi

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theogt;2599273 said:
From 2007 to 2008, Jason Witten's catches declined by 16%, his yardage total declined by 17%, and his touchdowns declined by 43%. He only had two games with over 100 yards in 2008, compared to four games in 2007.

Clearly this statistically proves Jason Witten is on the decline. Or maybe it just proves something else entirely.

Been saying the same thing the whole year...
 

BHendri5

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this post is idiocy, You showed nothing, but that numbers can be manipulated to show whatever you want it to show.

You wasted your time with this so called myth busting.

crap, that was all you posted, some more negative crap, untrue about T.O.
 

utblair

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AdamJT13;2598988 said:
I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.

I want to thank everyone for their comments. Constructive criticism is a good thing.

I do agree with the comment above, I did a poor job of conveying the significance of TO's YAC (it was a bad idea to edit at 3 am!).

I meant to present the fact that TO's YAC in 2008 (4.2) was the lowest that it has been in his career and that, in part, led to a drop in his production. Throughout his career, TO has used his strength to make plays after the catch and he was unable to do the same this year, in my opinion.

Again, thank you for the feedback.

Blair
 

AdamJT13

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utblair;2603422 said:
I meant to present the fact that TO's YAC in 2008 (4.2) was the lowest that it has been in his career and that, in part, led to a drop in his production. Throughout his career, TO has used his strength to make plays after the catch and he was unable to do the same this year, in my opinion.

Owens spent most of his career in the West Coast Offense, which uses quick slant passes and YAC as a staple. West Coast receivers typically have a higher YAC just because of the offense they run. Since coming to Dallas, Owens' YAC has been 4.7, 4.4 and 4.2. The difference from last year to this year represents a total of 14 yards. There are so many ways to get 14 yards more or less of YAC that it doesn't necessarily represent any difference in ability. For example, on one of the long passes he caught behind a cornerback and took for a touchdown. If the end zone was 14 yards farther away, he'd have 14 more YAC. Or if he had caught a lower percentage of his catches in the end zone, he'd have more YAC.

I just think there are too many reasons that average YAC doesn't really tell how good someone is at running with the ball after making a catch.
 

Audiman

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AdamJT13;2603481 said:
Owens spent most of his career in the West Coast Offense, which uses quick slant passes and YAC as a staple. West Coast receivers typically have a higher YAC just because of the offense they run. Since coming to Dallas, Owens' YAC has been 4.7, 4.4 and 4.2. The difference from last year to this year represents a total of 14 yards. There are so many ways to get 14 yards more or less of YAC that it doesn't necessarily represent any difference in ability. For example, on one of the long passes he caught behind a cornerback and took for a touchdown. If the end zone was 14 yards farther away, he'd have 14 more YAC. Or if he had caught a lower percentage of his catches in the end zone, he'd have more YAC.

I just think there are too many reasons that average YAC doesn't really tell how good someone is at running with the ball after making a catch.

quit with this common sense garbage!:D
 

Venger

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AdamJT13;2598988 said:
I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.
ABSOLUTELY. My first thought reading those stats was that YAC was chosen just to find the lowest ranking stat for TO possible. Now, if we threw the man a slant or drag route occasionally...

I have never seen a mob of folks tearing at a current player since the days of Quincy Carter. QUINCY FRIGGIN CARTER. A guy who was so awful, so dreadful, and such a train wreck that I think Domino's pizza would bin his resume. Our leading receiver, despite having over a quarter of the season with either Brad Johnson or a four fingered Romo, still managed to catch more TD's than Steve Smith or Santana Moss, a higher average than Larry Fitzgerald, and had almost identical stats to Randy Moss. And he faced EVERY SINGLE ONE of the top 5 defenses in the league - sometimes twice.

GOD I can't believe I am defending this guy... but right is right, and the man can still play wide receiver at a high level. You are going to rue the day you release him, at least at this point.
 

thechosen1n2

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Venger;2604221 said:
ABSOLUTELY. My first thought reading those stats was that YAC was chosen just to find the lowest ranking stat for TO possible. Now, if we threw the man a slant or drag route occasionally...

I have never seen a mob of folks tearing at a current player since the days of Quincy Carter. QUINCY FRIGGIN CARTER. A guy who was so awful, so dreadful, and such a train wreck that I think Domino's pizza would bin his resume. Our leading receiver, despite having over a quarter of the season with either Brad Johnson or a four fingered Romo, still managed to catch more TD's than Steve Smith or Santana Moss, a higher average than Larry Fitzgerald, and had almost identical stats to Randy Moss. And he faced EVERY SINGLE ONE of the top 5 defenses in the league - sometimes twice.

GOD I can't believe I am defending this guy... but right is right, and the man can still play wide receiver at a high level. You are going to rue the day you release him, at least at this point.

man truth is just truth....at least you are honest with yourself.
 

adbutcher

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AdamJT13;2598988 said:
I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.

:) :bow:
 

TheCount

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AdamJT13;2603481 said:
Owens spent most of his career in the West Coast Offense, which uses quick slant passes and YAC as a staple. West Coast receivers typically have a higher YAC just because of the offense they run. Since coming to Dallas, Owens' YAC has been 4.7, 4.4 and 4.2. The difference from last year to this year represents a total of 14 yards. There are so many ways to get 14 yards more or less of YAC that it doesn't necessarily represent any difference in ability. For example, on one of the long passes he caught behind a cornerback and took for a touchdown. If the end zone was 14 yards farther away, he'd have 14 more YAC. Or if he had caught a lower percentage of his catches in the end zone, he'd have more YAC.

I just think there are too many reasons that average YAC doesn't really tell how good someone is at running with the ball after making a catch.

Well none of this stuff is really meant to be a logical discussion on T.O. and the team, it's obviously written with a slant so I'm not really sure what people expect.

Those that are anti T.O. will take it at face value, those that are pro T.O. will swear every point is baseless and ridiculous. As with most things, the answer lays somewhere in the middle.
 

AmericasTeam31

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Pittsburgh #1
Baltimore #2
Philly - #3 - x2
Giants #4 - x2 (one with Brad Johnson)
Commanders #5 - x2
Tampa Bay #9 (with Brad Johnson)

Well, that makes 9 of the 16 games this season that were played against top 10 defenses.... 8 against top 5 defenses (including some of the most brilliant defensive minds the NFL has seen, i.e. Ryan, Labeau, Johnson) Notice that the list includes 3 Conference championship game teams, the Super bowl favorites, the #1 seed for the NFC, the #2 seed for the AFC.... etc... Show me one other "elite" reciever that had to, not only play a schedule like that, but had to do it without the starting QB for three games... Then show me their production.....?????

The other 7 games....
Cincinatti #12
San Francisco #13
Arizona #19
Green Bay #20
Cleveland #26
St. Louis #28 ( Brad Johnson)
Seattle #30
 

YosemiteSam

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This is DUMB. I can make a dead rat look like the best receiver in the world and I can make Larry Fitzgerald look like a load of crap if I word it right.

There are so many holes in this it's stupid. Did TO shine like he has before? No, but this was bogus too.
 

jazzcat22

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Remove the games that Romo was hurt. And what do you accomplish by removong the best and worst games. This is not a school and grade on a curve, or relate it to a bell curve.

You can say the same as to not removing the non romo games, and keep them in the averages.

It still comes down to a team sport, of execution, including the coaching staff and play calling.

You can do anything with numbers to prove of disprove your intentions.
 

Temo

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This is seriously some of the worst football writing I've ever read.
 
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