Inside the Numbers: Terrell Owens Myths

[theogt]

*yawn*

TO's stats with Tony Romo, annualized over a 16 game season:

1172 yards (9th in NFL)
11 TDs (3rd in NFL)
16.7 YPC (3rd highest among top 10 receivers in NFL)

Myth busted, indeed.

 

[bsheeern]

*yawn*

TO's stats with Tony Romo, annualized over a 16 game season:

1172 yards (9th in NFL)
11 TDs (3rd in NFL)
16.7 YPC (3rd highest among top 10 receivers in NFL)

Myth busted, indeed.

Hey we should start a show and call it MYTH BUSTERS.......haha

 

[thechosen1n2]

Im so surprised that people look at surface material such as this and render judgement. I still bet he has more TDs than anyone in the past 3 years, and more than anyone since 99. Dude had a "terrible" year and had 10 TDS.

The biggest myth is that he has lost a step...I posted this info before but here goes again.

TO's numbers were down along with Craytons, RW11, and Jason Wittens.
Jason Wittens numbers were down from last years and he was the GO TO reciever. Have all slowed down? Is it time to get rid of all of them? That slowed down crap is just that...CRAP. Dude had 15 touchdowns last year and didnt even play the whole season. Dude had 10 (really 11) and 6 games he had attrocious quarterbacking.

I guess TO has slowed down so much he couldnt chase down the guy the picked off the ball, or felix jones from behind to block. Last time i heard that premature statement is when I along with others said the Moss had lost a step before the start of last season.

The bolded blue section lets you know it was qb play, and coordinating that made everyone numbers drop.

PS....Take TO out the equation and watch Witten have to deal with safties instead of linebackers. And if TO was so easily shutdown, why Triple and Double teams everyweek, if 1 could get the job done.

 

[Muhast]

I agree, the YAC argument is the dumbest one of all. It's too dependent upon factors other than the ability to run after the catch — things like the types of patterns you run, where you are on the field and the coverage you're facing.

He claims Owens finished 48th in average YAC but provides no context. Was that wide receivers only, or does it include running backs (who inherently average more YAC than wide receivers)? He was 48th out of how many? Where did other wide receivers rank? Well, we know that Owens averaged 4.22 YAC. First-team All-Pro selection Andre Johnson averaged 4.29. Is he elite? How about Brandon Marshall (4.22)? Not elite? Reggie Wayne (4.10), not elite? Four of the AFC's top five in receiving yards are not elite? Sure.

Owens obviously didn't have his typical season, for several reasons. But tearing down straw men and making ridiculous statements merely makes the writer in the original post look ridiculous.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/b...ce=NFL&year=season_2008&sort=46&timeframe=All

t.o is 48 in wr's but if you look at the top 20 you only see 3 noteworthy guys.

T.O is still ranked above quite a few top wrs. Also T.O was tied for the 3rd most receiving tds in the league. How do people overlook that? he had a "Down year" and was just 2 tds short of leading the league in tds. w/e

 

[AdamJT13]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/b...ce=NFL&year=season_2008&sort=46&timeframe=All

t.o is 48 in wr's but if you look at the top 20 you only see 3 noteworthy guys.

T.O is still ranked above quite a few top wrs. Also T.O was tied for the 3rd most receiving tds in the league. How do people overlook that? he had a "Down year" and was just 2 tds short of leading the league in tds. w/e

Thanks for the link. But he's not 48th on that list, he is 71st -- out of 176.

The only way I can get Owens to rank 48th is to make the minimum number of catches 13, which leaves him 48th out of 116 qualifiers. That's still in the top half for YAC. He was right behind Andre Johnson (46th) and Brandon Marshall (47th).

Here are all of the qualifying receivers (13 catches or more) who finished with a lower YAC than Owens --

Devin Hester 4.2
Koren Robinson 4.2
Demetrius Williams 4.2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 4.1
Reggie Wayne 4.1
Braylon Edwards 4.1
Donnie Avery 4.1
Jason Hill 4.1
Lee Evans 4
Santonio Holmes 4
Eddie Royal 3.9
Roy Williams 3.8
Lance Moore 3.7
Michael Jenkins 3.7
Nate Washington 3.7
Reggie Brown 3.7
Early Doucet 3.7
Vincent Jackson 3.6
Ted Ginn Jr. 3.6
Bobby Engram 3.6
Bryant Johnson 3.6
Greg Camarillo 3.5
Antwaan Randle El 3.5
Domenik Hixon 3.5
Chaz Schilens 3.5
Joey Galloway 3.5
Anthony Gonzalez 3.4
Brandon Stokley 3.4
Steve Breaston 3.3
Roscoe Parrish 3.3
Ruvell Martin 3.3
Matt Jones 3.2
Isaac Bruce 3.2
Brandon Lloyd 3.2
Derrick Mason 3.1
Brandon Jones 3.1
Jabar Gaffney 3.1
Mark Bradley 3.1
James Jones 3.1
Jordy Nelson 3
Dane Looker 3
Syndric Steptoe 3
Marvin Harrison 2.9
Josh Reed 2.9
Amani Toomer 2.9
Kevin Curtis 2.8
Justin McCareins 2.8
John Standeford 2.8
Torry Holt 2.7
Ike Hilliard 2.7
Mike Furrey 2.7
Greg Lewis 2.6
Devin Thomas 2.6
Dennis Northcutt 2.5
Jason Avant 2.5
Steve Smith 2.4
Chris Chambers 2.4
Malcom Floyd 2.4
Javon Walker 2.3
Sidney Rice 2.3
Brian Finneran 2.2
Reggie Williams 2
Shaun McDonald 1.8
Ronald Curry 1.8
Mike Walker 1.8
Chad Johnson 1.6
Plaxico Burress 1.6
Chris Henry 0.9

 

[AdamJT13]

By the way, Miles Austin finished third among qualifying receivers with an average YAC of 8.2. He also finished second in first-down percentage and sixth in touchdown percentage. Does that make him "elite"?

 

[FLCowboyFan]

But it's not TO's fault. It is Romo who just isn't seeing how open he is. It is JG who didn't call the right plays. It's Wades fault because he eats too much. It's Jerry's fault because he let us go into the season with an OL that didn't give TO enough time to get open..............

............and don't even get me going about Whitten and all that he did to poor TO

What do you expect him to be? Superman?

 

[Apollo Creed]

Owens and Romo's success is contingent entirely on our line being able to protect, or our coordinator keeping defenses off balanced. Last year's woes had more to do with the loss of Kosier and Felix Jones than Owens losing a step.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Football isn't and and never has been a sport that lends itself well to statistical analysis. It's too much a team sport for stats to be easily isolated and distilled. That said, I find it rich that a couple of the folks posting in this thread are being schoolmarmish about this particular analysis. I've easily seen similar holes in analysis done by them pertaining to other players. I also find it a bit rich that some guys who have written, "Show me proof," now basically yawn in the face of the attempt.

I think there are enough statistics available to support the claim that Owens is a declining player. I don't think last year's stats alone offer strong support, though.

But I can see. My eyes tell me Owens is still a good player, but he is no longer a great player. My brain knows Owens has always had holes in his game, but his great physical talent more than compensated for those holes. As his physical talent has declined, that isn't so much the case anymore. Owens is a declining player, and the decline is likely to accelerate. That's the reality of athletics, and the man is a human being.

Still, the man has ability. He's a good player. Based on his physical skills alone, unless the team could derive a significant financial benefit, you wouldn't cut him. Given his eroding talent, though, you might be more inclined to decide the negatives now outweight the positives, especially considering the mounting evidence of the problems he caused -- and while many might want to ignore the evidence, or explain it away, the evidence is readily available.

The Owens apologists have been very quick to make ad hominem attacks against any line of criticism and against any evidence. They have attacked an entire profession, and they have argued that the inclusion of anything that happened in San Francisco and in Philadelphia is somehow out of bounds. They have resorted to childish name calling, in some cases, and in others, they have employed the thinly veiled code word "hater." When people have posted audio clips, video clips and stats, they've ridiculed the evidence. I can't even name, at this point, the long list of commentators, ex-players, ex-coaches, sportswriters, etcetera, who have been called hacks, sleaze, rumormongers or whatever.

And it's all in the service of Owens.

None of that is surprising. The ironic aspect of the Owens problem is it wouldn't exist if he were not a charismatic, compelling figure. It's his charisma and ability to gain support that creates the opportunity for damage. Combine those traits with many years of breathtaking performances on the football field, and it is not at all surprising Owens would have his supporters.

In the meantime, Valley Ranch burns.

 

[theogt]

From 2007 to 2008, Jason Witten's catches declined by 16%, his yardage total declined by 17%, and his touchdowns declined by 43%. He only had two games with over 100 yards in 2008, compared to four games in 2007.

Clearly this statistically proves Jason Witten is on the decline. Or maybe it just proves something else entirely.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

From 2007 to 2008, Jason Witten's catches declined by 16%, his yardage total declined by 17%, and his touchdowns declined by 43%. He only had two games with over 100 yards in 2008, compared to four games in 2007.

Clearly this statistically proves Jason Witten is on the decline. Or maybe it just proves something else entirely.

As in?

 

[theogt]

As in?

Perhaps it helps show that the entire offense was less productive for reasons other than the players catching the passes.

 

[Shake_Tiller]

Perhaps it helps show that the entire offense was less productive for reasons other than the players catching the passes.

That surely could be true. It's the problem with football statistics. They really can be interpreted in many ways, and there is a chicken/egg aspect, in many cases. It isn't like one batter facing one pitcher in a head to head matchup. Good point on your part.

 

[superpunk]

I think it's a very good thing to look at TO's numbers without that San Francisco game and observe the decline - whether Romo is throwing him the ball or not. He got about 1/4 of his numbers for the year in a single game.

 

[theogt]

I think it's a very good thing to look at TO's numbers without that San Francisco game and observe the decline - whether Romo is throwing him the ball or not. He got about 1/4 of his numbers for the year in a single game.

Let's look at it as a % of total yards with the games Romo was throwing to him, annualized over the year.

The highest single game yardage as a % of total yards:

2008 - 18%
2007 - 13%
2006 - 10%
2005 - 22%
2004 - 13%
2003 - 14%
2002 - 15%
2001 - 13%
2000 - 20%
Average = 15%

So, yeah, it's a little higher than his average (18% vs 15%), but it's also second most yards he's had in a single game. And, of course, his % was the highest for the year that he had his highest single game yardage (excluding 2005). And before you scream to take out the 2005 numbers from the average, it only drops his career average to 14%.

 

[tunahelper]

Ok, there is truth in the article and some stretches. First a backup was playing for three games. Second the line came apart toward the end of the year. Third WHY did JG refuse to put TO in motion against the bump n run corners?

If TO was in motion more he could have released easier?

All that said TO needs to be cut; mainly due to a philosophy change needed in the offense. It must not be unbalanced towards the pass any longer and TO needs to be a secondary target if he stays.

TO will never accept that role so he must go.

 

[superpunk]

Let's look at it as a % of total yards with the games Romo was throwing to him, annualized over the year.

The highest single game yardage as a % of total yards:

2008 - 18%
2007 - 13%
2006 - 10%
2005 - 22%
2004 - 13%
2003 - 14%
2002 - 15%
2001 - 13%
2000 - 20%
Average = 15%

So, yeah, it's a little higher than his average (18% vs 15%), but it's also second most yards he's had in a single game. And, of course, his % was the highest for the year that he had his highest single game yardage (excluding 2005). And before you scream to take out the 2005 numbers from the average, it only drops his career average to 14%.

Or let's just look at it from the standpoint of without that game - he's a receiver who averages less than 60 yards per game but is getting payed like he's the second best receiver in the league and could possibly be annoying alot of people on the team while still churning out mediocre production.

 

[theogt]

Or let's just look at it from the standpoint of without that game - he's a receiver who averages less than 60 yards per game but is getting payed like he's the second best receiver in the league and could possibly be annoying alot of people on the team while still churning out mediocre production.

Let's take the best game away from every receiver's season and I'm sure their numbers will look fantastic.

If you want to take out the highest and lowest single games, with Romo and annualized, it's still 1050 yards. That's certainly not elite, but it's not bad, and it's right on the same level of decline as Jason Witten saw from 2007 to 2008, so again, it proves nothing.

Still, I think it's silly that the only way to claim that he's no longer elite is to take away a 200+ yardage game. It's like saying, "If you take away his elite games, he's not elite." Well, no ****.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Or let's just look at it from the standpoint of without that game - he's a receiver who averages less than 60 yards per game but is getting payed like he's the second best receiver in the league and could possibly be annoying alot of people on the team while still churning out mediocre production.

Or we could look at it like THIS team BLEW CHUNKS this year and it affected HIS numbers.

Its most certainly NOT ALL about NUMBERS. Its about Wins. He gives us a chance to win EVERY GAME. Romo gives us a chance to WIN EVERY GAME.

Thats where we need to get to.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

It's not Owens production, or lack thereof, that bothers me.

It's his attitude. I love the competitor, and the guy who stays after practice to help Sam Hurd, etc. I love the guy who chases runs a guy down to make a block on a run play or tackle a corner who got an interception.

I abhor the guy who cries about a "system", or does sit down interviews mid season to whine, or feels he has to hold a PC after every game.

He's getting old, but he's still a force. He's a shell of what he once was, but he can be effective and dangerous. But he needs a hint of humility, as well as a sense of what it takes to be a team player. He needs to understand he isn't the TO that he was just a few years ago. Ergo, he may not be nor should he be the #1 guy.

Exactly.