Interesting SackSeer (predicting draft prospect passrushing success)

[jblaze2004]

13 Mar 2014

SackSEER 2014
by Nathan Forster

With the NFL Combine under wraps, it is time for the annual unveiling of our SackSEER projections for the college "edge rushers" (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers) available in the 2014 NFL Draft. For those unfamiliar with SackSEER, SackSEER predicts each player’s likely level of pass-rushing success based on combine drills and college production. The projections are based on the college and professional numbers of the 322 edge rushers taken in the NFL Draft from 1998–2012.

SackSEER expresses its thoughts on each drafted edge rusher through two outputs: SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating. SackSEER projection and SackSEER rating contain the following common elements:

• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect’s scores in the forty-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect’s score on the three-cone drill;
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect’s per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL Draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect’s college passes defensed divided by college games played;

and

• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.

SackSEER projection projects the number of regular season sacks that a prospect will record in his first five regular seasons in the NFL. Unlike SackSEER rating, SackSEER projection includes the prospect’s projected round drafted from NFL Draft Scout.



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/sackseer-2014

 

[jday]

Well that makes feel better about packaging a 2nd and 3rd for Lawrence...

How successful has sackseers predictions been, pray tell!

 

[Vintage]

Yeah. Lawrence isn't really an explosive athlete. Hopefully that isn't a sign of bad things.

 

[jterrell]

interesting to metricize the potential of these guys but the biggest variable is what team they are on and where they play along the line schematically.

lawrence will likely beat the 12 sack prediction (over 5 years) just based on his pass rushing attempts.
other guys 'may' be better but spend two years on the bench behind ballyhooed starters.

 

[jday]

interesting to metricize the potential of these guys but the biggest variable is what team they are on and where they play along the line schematically.

lawrence will likely beat the 12 sack prediction (over 5 years) just based on his pass rushing attempts.
other guys 'may' be better but spend two years on the bench behind ballyhooed starters.

But seriously, 12 sacks over 5 years is pedestrian at best and we are hoping this guy can replace at least half of Ware's production, if not more.

 

[jterrell]

Yeah. Lawrence isn't really an explosive athlete. Hopefully that isn't a sign of bad things.

the guy he reminds me of is terrell suggs. lawrence was actually a bit better at the combine.
..excerpted http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...-Combine/94bfb79e-731c-47c0-b789-e34344772006

2003 – OLB Terrell Suggs
Suggs’ 40-yard dash at the combine gave some talent evaluators pause. He ran it in the dragging 4.8-second range. He had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds. The average is around 25 for defensive linemen. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. His speed hasn’t proven to be a problem.
------------------

pass rushing is a skill and is something lawrence has shown he can actually do.
i don't think he has elite upside but he is a very safe bet as a solid pass rusher because he knows how to do it.

he isn't demarcus ware but even clowney likely isn't.
been trying to tell our own fan base all off-season just how silly it is to ignore what ware was for us.

 

[Hoofbite]

Moreover, Mack’s stats for the Buffalo Bulls suggest that he is not so much a man, but rather, a vortex where offensive plays go to die. Mack holds the all-time FBS record for forced fumbles (16) and ties the all-time record for tackles for loss (75). To top it off, Mack had four interceptions and 24 passes broken up. The NCAA doesn’t track defeats, but with over one hundred combined tackles for loss and passes defensed, Mack would likely have the all-time record if it did.

Got a chuckle.

 

[Vintage]

the guy he reminds me of is terrell suggs. lawrence was actually a bit better at the combine.
..excerpted http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...-Combine/94bfb79e-731c-47c0-b789-e34344772006

2003 – OLB Terrell Suggs
Suggs’ 40-yard dash at the combine gave some talent evaluators pause. He ran it in the dragging 4.8-second range. He had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds. The average is around 25 for defensive linemen. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. His speed hasn’t proven to be a problem.
------------------

pass rushing is a skill and is something lawrence has shown he can actually do.
i don't think he has elite upside but he is a very safe bet as a solid pass rusher because he knows how to do it.

he isn't demarcus ware but even clowney likely isn't.
been trying to tell our own fan base all off-season just how silly it is to ignore what ware was for us.

I don't think Lawrence is an elite talent, either. I would actually be happy if he turned out to have a similar career type to Greg Ellis, with less whining.

(I am not saying they are similar players or possess similar skillsets)

 

[jterrell]

But seriously, 12 sacks over 5 years is pedestrian at best and we are hoping this guy can replace at least half of Ware's production, if not more.

if you go back and look at their old predictions you'll see it has little connection to reality. --Robert Quinn at 15 over 5 years.... DaQuan Bowers at 22... Pierre-Paul at 3.8....
it is harder to find a player they had right then one they had wrong.

the biggest variables(health. system, DL partners, DB group behind them) are not covered by their metric.
it is a cool tool to look at while scouting but pointless really once drafted.

 

[Risen Star]

This is like stumbling into a Star Trek convention.

 

[AsthmaField]

They ding you for switching positions and for early entry... which I don't necessarily agree with. How difficult the position switch is depends on a lot of factors and that certainly isn't going to be the same for everyone switching positions. Going from 43 DE to 34 OLB is much more difficult than going from 34 OLB to 43 DE in most cases. Some systems will be easier than others.

Early entry seems kinda strange to use. It doesn't tell you how player X and player Y compare really. If Mack would have come out last year instead of this year, would he be any less of a prospect than he is now?

I don't know... maybe I'm being too picky.

 

[jterrell]

I don't think Lawrence is an elite talent, either. I would actually be happy if he turned out to have a similar career type to Greg Ellis, with less whining.

(I am not saying they are similar players or possess similar skillsets)

the reality is Ellis whined less than Emmitt Smith did.
Ellis was one of the best influences we had on young players even though they were taking his job.
Smith wouldn't even let back ups talk to him, lol.

 

[BIGDen]

the guy he reminds me of is terrell suggs. lawrence was actually a bit better at the combine.
..excerpted http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...-Combine/94bfb79e-731c-47c0-b789-e34344772006

2003 – OLB Terrell Suggs
Suggs’ 40-yard dash at the combine gave some talent evaluators pause. He ran it in the dragging 4.8-second range. He had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds. The average is around 25 for defensive linemen. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. His speed hasn’t proven to be a problem.
------------------

pass rushing is a skill and is something lawrence has shown he can actually do.
i don't think he has elite upside but he is a very safe bet as a solid pass rusher because he knows how to do it.

he isn't demarcus ware but even clowney likely isn't.
been trying to tell our own fan base all off-season just how silly it is to ignore what ware was for us.

Suggs is exactly who I thought of when I started reading about Lawrence leading up to the draft. I remember Suggs being a great pass-rushing prospect who had unimpressive combine numbers. Lawrence's athleticism may not be overly impressive, but his productivity at a very good program was outstanding. In 23 games he had 20 sacks, 34 TFL, and 7 FF. That is an absolute playmaker on defense. Also, he has very long arms and big, strong hands. Those are important attributes for a pass-rusher. When you watch him, he has a great ability to stay low and balanced as he turns the corner. He also tracks down the QB very well and does not run by the QB or get fooled easily. He shows good instincts. If his measurables were more impressive, he would have been taken in the early 1st IMO. I think he will be a very good player for us.

 

[Sarge]

I don't think Lawrence is an elite talent, either. I would actually be happy if he turned out to have a similar career type to Greg Ellis, with less whining.

(I am not saying they are similar players or possess similar skillsets)

I personally think we will be lucky if he matches Greg Ellis' production.

 

[DFWJC]

My preference was to get

Tim Jernigan AND Kareem Martin. >>> only Lawrence

But it is what it, so here's to hoping Lawrence makes it worth it.

 

[Rockport]

Can't believe anyone would give this a second look. The gullibility of CZ'ers is amazing. Anything said on ESPN or written on some website is taken as gospel.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I personally think we will be lucky if he matches Greg Ellis' production.

I think Lawrence is perfectly capable of averaging 7 sacks per year

 

[DFWJC]

I think what was impressive about Ellis is that he averaged 7 sacks per year...but over 11 seasons

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They hated Tyrone Crawford too.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

They are changing it every few years just like they did in 2012. It's not much of a diagnostic tool at this point.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Can't believe anyone would give this a second look. The gullibility of CZ'ers is amazing. Anything said on ESPN or written on some website is taken as gospel.

It's football outsiders not ESPN even if they published. They use legitimate modeling techniques. Weren't you just talking about how you trust what 'Cowboys Insiders' say? I think that you can use your logic here with that same approach there.