Interesting SackSeer (predicting draft prospect passrushing success)

[StarBoyz83]

Twice the athlete?

Hard to imagine how he'd fail with that sort of ability.

I dont think he'll fail but you never know. Cowboys need him to be great.

 

[jterrell]

What is goofy in every way is thinking that the first and second iterations not working means the approach is wrong. Electricians shock themselves to death every day and we have understood the basic mechanics since Maxwell. Your characterization is gratuitous and doesn't speak to the matter at hand.

Their method is to determine causative variables, weigh them and then make predictions. They compare predictions to observations and adjust. They have already made one adjustment.

They have shown the errors of the past, are working the model to conform to observation and they tried again. I said that it is not a good diagnostic tool right now because its a work in progress. That doesn't mean that this iteration or a following one will not bear out to be a good diagnostic.

Yes, it does.
You are arguing to argue as opposed to actually making a point.
It's ok to be wrong and if you are suggesting these metrics mean anything you are.

My point was this work is theoretical and as you suggest is constantly changing in an effort to meet reality.
Thus far it has failed miserably.
At this point there is still zero reason to believe this metric has any correlation to NFL promotion.
The fact FO changes it yearly suggests they also realize it is flawed.

Feel free to point to any year of their data and any success stories....

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Baseball is an individual sport. I also don't see something completely made up like "explosive index".

The explosive index is an aggregate of combine measurements. Those events are performed individually.

And while batter/hitter is a much more simple dynamic, I have to say that you have quite the defeatist attitude. More complex does not mean impossible.

You are quite the luddite though. You hate cell phones too?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Yes, it does.
You are arguing to argue as opposed to actually making a point.
It's ok to be wrong and if you are suggesting these metrics mean anything you are.

My point was this work is theoretical and as you suggest is constantly changing in an effort to meet reality.
Thus far it has failed miserably.
At this point there is still zero reason to believe this metric has any correlation to NFL promotion.
The fact FO changes it yearly suggests they also realize it is flawed.

Feel free to point to any year of their data and any success stories....

You are using superlatives and the like to try and pimp your point. It shows a weak argument.

I keep saying that they are a poor diagnostic tool. I don't see why you need to try and pile on. You seem aggravated because I refuse to denounce them and instead keep an open mind regarding their work moving forward.

They don't change it yearly either. You are flailing at this point.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Baseball is different because it has hundreds, even thousands of trials. Football doesn't have that. The sample sizes aren't nearly as large and there are many more variables that change more often. That's my problem with the attempt to transfer baseball analytics to football. Nothing wrong with attempting it, but it simply doesn't work nearly as well.

And attacking some poster's judgement because he was wrong about a college player is absurd. Everyone who has ever attempted a scouting report on a player has been wrong, very wrong, many times -- including the professionals. I'm sure Catch could find some prediction of Fuzzy's that turned out to be completely off base, but he's not petty enough to go to the trouble to make a big production about it.

 

[dmq]

the guy he reminds me of is terrell suggs. lawrence was actually a bit better at the combine.
..excerpted http://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...-Combine/94bfb79e-731c-47c0-b789-e34344772006

2003 – OLB Terrell Suggs
Suggs’ 40-yard dash at the combine gave some talent evaluators pause. He ran it in the dragging 4.8-second range. He had an average vertical jump (33 inches) and just 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds. The average is around 25 for defensive linemen. Suggs slid a little bit in the draft and was scooped up by the Ravens at pick No. 10. His speed hasn’t proven to be a problem.
------------------

pass rushing is a skill and is something lawrence has shown he can actually do.
i don't think he has elite upside but he is a very safe bet as a solid pass rusher because he knows how to do it.

he isn't demarcus ware but even clowney likely isn't.
been trying to tell our own fan base all off-season just how silly it is to ignore what ware was for us.

Interestingly enough, Suggs is who Lawrence reminds me of too. You just can't put a number on effort.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I was wrong about Murray because of what myself and others couldn't project him to be off of what he did in College and that was being a physical NFL back vs a college guy who was a 1 cut to the outside and try to take it to the house guy.

Who also got subbed out anytime they wanted to run him between the tackles.



Also, for every one of these I have several players I was right about. I called Tyron Smith before he was even a draft prospect. I called Earl Thomas over Eric Berry when everyone was on that hype as well. Everyone misses on players and I missed on Murray for things that I couldn't project based on anything he did at Oklahoma.

Also... It's not like he's some superstar runner or anything. The guy is good but not anything special and till this day still gets hurt a lot.

Like I said back then. There were plenty of examples of him running between the tackles and being physical and that you should have paid better attention.

And bravo you can see top 5 quality picks easily. When you get good at discerning talent in the middle rounds then let me know.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Baseball is different because it has hundreds, even thousands of trials. Football doesn't have that. The sample sizes aren't nearly as large and there are many more variables that change more often. That's my problem with the attempt to transfer baseball analytics to football. Nothing wrong with attempting it, but it simply doesn't work nearly as well.

And attacking some poster's judgement because he was wrong about a college player is absurd. Everyone who has ever attempted a scouting report on a player has been wrong, very wrong, many times -- including the professionals. I'm sure Catch could find some prediction of Fuzzy's that turned out to be completely off base, but he's not petty enough to go to the trouble to make a big production about it.

You keep this up you might just get a hug. LOL Seeing that he keeps on bringing up Tarvaris Jackson I think it is obvious that he is just that 'petty.'

Petty? You should not call anyone petty. You are the one that likes to use a person's college education to denigrate a man.

I am joshing him about Murray sure but I do not denounce a man because of where he went to school or other petty insipid basis for judging someone.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Petty? You should not call anyone petty. You are the one that likes to use a person's college education to denigrate a man.

I never did any such thing. You're about as correct about that as you were that Catch is a UT fan.

Seems like you get to say whatever you want about people, though, true or not. I'm sure if you were in the "realist" camp you wouldn't get nearly the rope you do.

 

[CATCH17]

I'm sure Catch could find some prediction of Fuzzy's that turned out to be completely off base, but he's not petty enough to go to the trouble to make a big production about it.

I actually am that petty but I just don't care enough about Fuzzys opinion to get that stirred up about it.

I've admitted several times I was wrong about Demarco and I would be wrong again if I saw another player with his college skill set and thinking it would translate to the pros.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I never did any such thing. You're about as correct about that as you were that Catch is a UT fan.

Seems like you get to say whatever you want about people, though, true or not. I'm sure if you were in the "realist" camp you wouldn't get nearly the rope you do.

Ahh now the martyr card.

How on Earth can you say that when your sig is clearly ridiculing two people because they went to Ivy League schools? In a recent thread you used the fact that Carter went to UNC as a basis to say he was a bad prospect. Now you are going to whine that I have too much rope?

You said those things in this forum. After you called me petty, I point it out as petty and you cry this? I have too much rope? I know you don't like me but just stop.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Ahh now the martyr card.

Nope, never said or suggested that either. There are plenty of those already on this board.

How on Earth can you say that when your sig is clearly ridiculing two people because they went to Ivy League schools?

I have nothing but respect for Ivy League schools. But they don't have jack to do with coaching football. I don't dislike Garrett because he went to Princeton, or because he has red hair, or for any other silly reason. I dislike Garrett because he's shown he's an average at best football coach and I think our fans and players deserve better.

In a recent thread you used the fact that Carter went to UNC as a basis to say he was a bad prospect.

I absolutely didn't do that. I don't think he's a bad prospect in the first place, so why would I blame it on his school?

What I said was that UNC lately has had a lot of very talented players who don't live up to their potential. Marvin Austin, the WR who went to the Pats, others. Which is all true. UNC has had that rep -- much like UT -- of the country club atmosphere that recruits good athletes but doesn't demand a lot of its players, and that carries over to the pros. I'm hardly the only one who has made that observation.

Really, I know you are the uber-intelligent voice of the board, but your reading comprehension needs some work. Since you seem to constantly misrepresent my positions, why don't you just put me on ignore.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Nope, never said or suggested that either. There are plenty of those already on this board.



I have nothing but respect for Ivy League schools. But they don't have jack to do with coaching football. I don't dislike Garrett because he went to Princeton, or because he has red hair, or for any other silly reason. I dislike Garrett because he's shown he's an average at best football coach and I think our fans and players deserve better.



I absolutely didn't do that. I don't think he's a bad prospect in the first place, so why would I blame it on his school?

What I said was that UNC lately has had a lot of very talented players who don't live up to their potential. Marvin Austin, the WR who went to the Pats, others. Which is all true. UNC has had that rep -- much like UT -- of the country club atmosphere that recruits good athletes but doesn't demand a lot of its players, and that carries over to the pros. I'm hardly the only one who has made that observation.

Really, I know you are the uber-intelligent voice of the board, but your reading comprehension needs some work. Since you seem to constantly misrepresent my positions, why don't you just put me on ignore.

The only people that talk about my intelligence are people such as yourself. I don't and you seem to like making a big deal about it.

I was raised in a house where vocabulary and diction were very important. When I would use complex vocabulary, I was encouraged just as I was encouraged to read to expand said vocabulary. I got that from the day I started talking and like hell am I going to allow myself to be bullied into dumbing myself down because people such as yourself are bothered by it.

I have been getting comments about it since moving to the South and I have a pretty good idea where it comes from. We aren't satisfied with ignorance nor fight for it in my clan.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

LOL. Your supposed intelligence and your vocabulary don't bother me one bit. It's amusing more than anything.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

LOL. Your supposed intelligence and your vocabulary don't bother me one bit. It's amusing more than anything.

You just got done calling me petty and then resort to this. Nice. Consistency is not your strong suit.

Now do you really think that anyone with supposed intelligence reading this buys your dissembling?

It's pretty obvious that your ridicule is meant as negative reinforcement in an effort to get me to stop using words that 'sound smart.' It's straight classical conditioning.

You are truly not bothered one bit. . .

I am bored with this sniping and am tired of you making the conversation about me. The last word is yours.

 

[casmith07]

I actually am that petty but I just don't care enough about Fuzzys opinion to get that stirred up about it.

I've admitted several times I was wrong about Demarco and I would be wrong again if I saw another player with his college skill set and thinking it would translate to the pros.

So not stirred up that you passive-aggressively throw a slight at him in public? Hah.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So not stirred up that you passive-aggressively throw a slight at him in public? Hah.

I can respect Catch. He is straightforward and unabashed. I could have a drink with him and I think we would get along.

OTOH, I have gotten into bar fights where terms like "million dollar words and a fifty cent head" and the like were thrown about after someone eavesdroped on my conversation. "You think you're so smart!"

I never got that living out on the east and west coasts. I only have gotten that in Texas and Mississippi. Meridian is such a gem of happiness. I get tired of a people always vigilant for someone that may dare to condescend.