Interesting SackSeer (predicting draft prospect passrushing success)

[guag]

But seriously, 12 sacks over 5 years is pedestrian at best and we are hoping this guy can replace at least half of Ware's production, if not more.

2.4 sacks a year for a RDE is pedestrian at best? More like atrocious at best.

 

[Rockport]

It's football outsiders not ESPN even if they published. They use legitimate modeling techniques. Weren't you just talking about how you trust what 'Cowboys Insiders' say? I think that you can use your logic here with that same approach there.

Legitimate modeling techniques? Who proclaims them legitimate?

 

[DFWJC]

if you go back and look at their old predictions you'll see it has little connection to reality. --Robert Quinn at 15 over 5 years.... DaQuan Bowers at 22... Pierre-Paul at 3.8....
it is harder to find a player they had right then one they had wrong.

the biggest variables(health. system, DL partners, DB group behind them) are not covered by their metric.
it is a cool tool to look at while scouting but pointless really once drafted.

END THREAD?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Legitimate modeling techniques? Who proclaims them legitimate?

I am a trained electrical engineer and while I currently do not do modeling as such I am trained extensively in the methods of doing so.

They are currently in the process of determining which variables are causative and as such are not a making for a good diagnostic atm; the way they are going about is correct nonetheless.

Your confirmation bias is adorable though.

 

[Rockport]

I am a trained electrical engineer and while I currently do not do modeling as such I am trained extensively in the methods of doing so.

They are currently in the process of determining which variables are causative and as such are not a making for a good diagnostic atm; the way they are going about is correct nonetheless.

Your confirmation bias is adorable though.

Your lack of being able to come to a rational decision based on the facts is quite puzzling. Like concluding Carter was good last year after he was benched twice.

 

[burmafrd]

I am a trained electrical engineer and while I currently do not do modeling as such I am trained extensively in the methods of doing so.

They are currently in the process of determining which variables are causative and as such are not a making for a good diagnostic atm; the way they are going about is correct nonetheless.

Your confirmation bias is adorable though.

bean counters like fuzzy are always amusing

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Your lack of being able to come to a rational decision based on the facts is quite puzzling. Like concluding Carter was good last year after he was benched twice.

I didn't say he was good all the time nor did I say he was bad all the time. You are the one that simplifies it down to that banal tripe.

I have said multiple times that he acted like a child and applaud the coaching staff for holding him accountable.

If you would like to talk about his performances at the end of the year like at the Giants, versus Oakland, at Commanders or versus Eagles, then I am game.

He did play well in those games. Are you the one that has been claiming he was still behaving like that at the end of the year? Or are you just trying to paint his entire season with a single stroke?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

bean counters like fuzzy are always amusing

You going to follow me around and troll me now? You much like Bruce Carter need to learn to control your emotions.

 

[OhSnap]

I don't know how they'll ever get this thing dialed in to being accurate with so many intangibles. All it takes is for one DE to get some favorable match ups because if injuries or whatever and the prediction is way off.

 

[jterrell]

I am a trained electrical engineer and while I currently do not do modeling as such I am trained extensively in the methods of doing so.

They are currently in the process of determining which variables are causative and as such are not a making for a good diagnostic atm; the way they are going about is correct nonetheless.

Your confirmation bias is adorable though.

No offense but this argument is goofy in every way.
I am a fan of metrics but the way to test this metric is clearly is to see if they were correct.

If you, as an electrician tried "guessing" like these metrics you'd have been shocked to death long ago.
In that field (my Dad is an electrical engineer) people trust what is thoroughly proven to work, not metrics.

This is an attempt at an unbiased analysis but the data says they have been wholly inaccurate in their results.

The best they can do is label it a college weighted metric with no basis on NFL results.

 

[jterrell]

I don't know how they'll ever get this thing dialed in to being accurate with so many intangibles. All it takes is for one DE to get some favorable match ups because if injuries or whatever and the prediction is way off.

you can't realistically tie college production to pro production in any meaningful way.
if you could the draft would be a fairly mundane exercise with everyone using one "board".

Arguably the best NFL player of the past 20 years had 30 TDs and 17 INTs in college.
Vince Young beat the 'team of the century' in college to win a NC.

You have to take the entire amount of info and compile it into your best guess... and nowadays the well-studied draftnik is often as accurate as Kiper, Rang or those who specialize in it because the info is out there.

 

[Nation]

Football Outsiders draft metrics have a lot of flaws in them. They had to eliminate their WR Playmaker Score after it had countless flaws, the most notable being that Julio Jones would be a colossal bust. Their QB Lewin Career Forecast has also had major issues, mainly predicting Geno Smith and Colt McCoy to be surefire stars.

 

[jterrell]

I think Lawrence is perfectly capable of averaging 7 sacks per year

if he does that for us for 11 years than this was a steal of a draft pick.
sry didnt see reply already addressed this btw.

 

[OhSnap]

you can't realistically tie college production to pro production in any meaningful way.
if you could the draft would be a fairly mundane exercise with everyone using one "board".

Arguably the best NFL player of the past 20 years had 30 TDs and 17 INTs in college.
Vince Young beat the 'team of the century' in college to win a NC.

You have to take the entire amount of info and compile it into your best guess... and nowadays the well-studied draftnik is often as accurate as Kiper, Rang or those who specialize in it because the info is out there.

I like all the numbers and math thats crept into NFL predictions and ratings as a tool but football has allot of factors that you cant put a number on.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No offense but this argument is goofy in every way.
I am a fan of metrics but the way to test this metric is clearly is to see if they were correct.

If you, as an electrician tried "guessing" like these metrics you'd have been shocked to death long ago.
In that field (my Dad is an electrical engineer) people trust what is thoroughly proven to work, not metrics.

This is an attempt at an unbiased analysis but the data says they have been wholly inaccurate in their results.

The best they can do is label it a college weighted metric with no basis on NFL results.

What is goofy in every way is thinking that the first and second iterations not working means the approach is wrong. Electricians shock themselves to death every day and we have understood the basic mechanics since Maxwell. Your characterization is gratuitous and doesn't speak to the matter at hand.

Their method is to determine causative variables, weigh them and then make predictions. They compare predictions to observations and adjust. They have already made one adjustment.

They have shown the errors of the past, are working the model to conform to observation and they tried again. I said that it is not a good diagnostic tool right now because its a work in progress. That doesn't mean that this iteration or a following one will not bear out to be a good diagnostic.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Football Outsiders draft metrics have a lot of flaws in them. They had to eliminate their WR Playmaker Score after it had countless flaws, the most notable being that Julio Jones would be a colossal bust. Their QB Lewin Career Forecast has also had major issues, mainly predicting Geno Smith and Colt McCoy to be surefire stars.

They certainly are guessing at a lot of things and feeling around blind.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Football Outsiders draft metrics have a lot of flaws in them. They had to eliminate their WR Playmaker Score after it had countless flaws, the most notable being that Julio Jones would be a colossal bust. Their QB Lewin Career Forecast has also had major issues, mainly predicting Geno Smith and Colt McCoy to be surefire stars.

You don't point out a flaw in a system with a singular data point.

The guy that created the playmaker score retired. They didn't eliminate it either.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2014/playmaker-score-2014

They have Devin Street on there.

 

[CATCH17]

I don't think Lawrence is an elite talent, either. I would actually be happy if he turned out to have a similar career type to Greg Ellis, with less whining.

(I am not saying they are similar players or possess similar skillsets)

Same.. If I was an NFL offensive tackle he wouldn't put much fear in me as of now. Get your hands on him and it's over.

He's not an exceptional athlete or anything. He may be a good player but I just don't know. It's hard to say with him.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Same.. If I was an NFL offensive tackle he wouldn't put much fear in me as of now. Get your hands on him and it's over.

He's not an exceptional athlete or anything. He may be a good player but I just don't know. It's hard to say with him.

He sheds blocks rather well. Bitonio was the only guy that I saw that could get ahold of him and hold onto him at all but while he was able to squash him in the first half, Lawrence had the last laugh getting a pressure and a sack in the fourth quarter versus Bitonio and the game on the line.

And you seem to do everything by feel. I lost faith in your intuition when you said you didn't like Murray because you didn't fear him.

 

[CATCH17]

He sheds blocks rather well. Bitonio was the only guy that I saw that could get ahold of him and hold onto him at all but while he was able to squash him in the first half, Lawrence had the last laugh getting a pressure and a sack in the fourth quarter versus Bitonio and the game on the line.

And you seem to do everything by feel. I lost faith in your intuition when you said you didn't like Murray because you didn't fear him.

Yeah I lost faith in yours too when you hyped Tavaris Jackson.


Also, regarding Murray, I said he runs high, doesn't have a lot of moves, and gets hurt a lot. Nobody, including the Cowboys coaches, thought he would be as physical as he is based on anything he did at Oklahoma.