Disagree. You don’t pay them on futures. We paid him based on what we had seen and the success he had already had.
These ownerships don’t view it as fans do. If they find a franchise QB regardless whether he’s Elite or not they are going to lock him up cause it brings stability to their team and easier to sell over several years.
Part of it is owners, as you have said, overpaying and overvaluing average to slightly above average QB's. Part of it is owners being desperate to have what 'they think' is an elite/franchise QB. Part of it is player's/agent's taking advantage of those aspects as well as rising salaries and asking for the moon.
That said, keep in mind that before Jerry franchise tagged Dak in 2020, and keep in mind that Dak and his agency declined a reported contract offer of 5 years/$175M, here is what Dak's 'average' season was based on the previous 4 years (2016-2019; 64 games played):
341 completions
518 attempts
65.8% Comp %
3,945 yards
11.57 ypc
24 td's
9 int's
On a per game basis, that breaks down to the following per game average performance: 21 completions 32 attempts 65.6% comp % 247 yards 11.76 ypc 1.5 td's .6 int's
Given Dak's injuries from 2020-2022, season stats can't be fully computed so based on a per game average basis, here is Dak's stats since being franchise tagged in 2020 (23 games played):
26 completions 38 attempts 68.4% comp % 289 yards 11.12 ypc 2 td's .7 int's
While many will disagree, those are in fact average stats for a QB but because of the above listed reasons (and of course there are more than what is listed) Dak was paid what he was paid. That is my opinion as to whether Dak was worth the franchise tag and was he worth the contract offer but the fact is he turned down a 5-year $175M contract offer ($35M/year average) prior to 2020 and instead ultimately ended up with 5 years (franchise tag and then new 4-year deal) $191.4M ($38M/year average), a difference of $16.4M total or $3M/year.