Aaron Rogers will win the MVP
I was thinking the same thing because his numbers are absolutely insane. Almost an 11:1 TD:INT ratio and a QBR of 118.
But, Adrian Peterson beat out Rodgers in 2012 and Rosgers had a hell of a season that year as well. 39 TDs, 8 INTs, and 108 QBR.
I think Murray has to crack 2000 and Dallas gets to the playoffs. Very possible yards-wise but playoffs could come down to tie breakers.
A player who I think deserves consideration is Antonio Brown. He may be the 2nd player ever to catch 130 passes in a season, and he has a small - but still possible - chance to set the record for receptions in a season. He'd need 13 per game so unlikely but not impossible. He could also have a top 5 all time year in receiving yards if he gets 350 yards, which is well within reach as he averages 105/game.
I know WRs pretty much never win but I wonder how many guys with comparable seasons at WR had the best season for his position on a winning team. Last year Gordon lead the league but the Browns were awful. Year before Calvin had 1900 yard but the Lions were awful.
Rodgers has some good teams to compile yards and TDs on in Atlanta and Tampa remaining. I think he'll come out on top, but if Murray cracks 2000 yards and Dallas gets to the playoffs I think Murray would get the award. Rodgers has Luck, Manning, Brady, Big Ben, and Romo who have all had great seasons.
The closest back to Murray is about 4 games worth of yards behind him.
The Packers wouldn't be as good, but they'd still be damn good with any of the QBs that are having great seasons. There is little doubt that Dallas would be in the position they are if Murray wasn't having this season.