Is Murray on an unsustainable pace?

[Doomsday101]

Either we don't run the ball enough or we run it too much.
Make up your mind and stop the madness.

I agree. We all seem to be talking as if the playoffs is a done deal it is not. Dallas does not need to put the breaks on Murray.

 

[Angus12]

so you have 400 carries one year, you rest for 6-7 months, and somehow that impacts next year? its hogwash. The two are not tied together.

Go look at the seasons where RBs have had 400 carries, then look at what they done not only the following year, but the rest of their careers.

 

[Aven8]

When you have a thoroughbred you run him until he can't run no more.

 

[Sportsbabe]

I agree. We all seem to be talking as if the playoffs is a done deal it is not. Dallas does not need to put the breaks on Murray.

How soon we forget .... they were ready to kick Murray to the curb because he couldn't stay healthy. They were ready to dump Jeezy because he wouldn't run the ball. The list goes on and on. Now they're questioning the very things they asked for. These people bore me.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Go look at the seasons where RBs have had 400 carries, then look at what they done not only the following year, but the rest of their careers.

I can look at it. That is really irrelevant though. It could be the natural decline of the careers, it could be they lose good o-lineman, it could be defenses prepare to stop them better. Putting it all on the amount of carries in a single season is not statistically relevant.

 

[Red Dragon]

Why does it have to be all or nothing? Reduce Murray's carries by 5 per game and give Dunbar/Randle more carries. Gives you plenty of Murray without overworking him.

 

[Doomsday101]

How soon we forget .... they were ready to kick Murray to the curb because he couldn't stay healthy. They were ready to dump Jeezy because he wouldn't run the ball. The list goes on and on. Now they're questioning the very things they asked for. These people bore me.

I agree and the funny part is people will talk about Peterson or McCoy should they get released and both of them have had their fair share of injuries as well. We have a very good RB who is in his prime who fits this offense like a glove and who is putting up numbers that only Jim Brown was able to do.

 

[Doomsday101]

Why does it have to be all or nothing? Reduce Murray's carries by 5 per game and give Dunbar/Randle more carries. Gives you plenty of Murray without overworking him.

sometimes easier said than done. I think Dallas will try to give Randle and Dunbar some carries through out the game but when you are trying to end the game you want your best guy out there getting it done. I do think there will be games that will be able to run Murray less but there will be some big games where we have to hit the opponent with everything we got.

 

[Angus12]

I can look at it. That is really irrelevant though. It could be the natural decline of the careers, it could be they lose good o-lineman, it could be defenses prepare to stop them better. Putting it all on the amount of carries in a single season is not statistically relevant.

You can believe what ever you want to believe. I'll believe the fact that every single time a runner hits the 400 carry wall, they decline sharply. So, no. It certainly isn't irrelevant.

Every. Single. Time.

 

[Sportsbabe]

I agree and the funny part is people will talk about Peterson or McCoy should they get released and both of them have had their fair share of injuries as well. We have a very good RB who is in his prime who fits this offense like a glove and who is putting up numbers that only Jim Brown was able to do.

... and Big Ear Scicilianio (however you spell his name) had the nerve to say last night "I've been hearing the Cowboys say ... we're gonna cut back on Murrays carries .... do you think they're gonna do it this time??? haven't seen it yet?"

... at the beginning of the season they were saying " the Cowboys said "they are going to run the ball more, do you think they are going to do it? they've been saying it for quite some time now."

I'm so sick of it I don't know what to do. I may as well strap in because that's what they do .... and they're going to keep doing it for the rest of the year. Sad but true.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I agree there is a past history with other player. Some guys like Jamal Anderson was a serious injury that did him in. I think each individual is different so we will see. Meantime I think Cowboys will do what they can to keep Murray. I have honestly never seen a fan base who wants to push a star player out as bad as many have with Murray. Not referring to you but to those who seem to think he can easily be replaced.

I agree on the fanbase wanting to push out Murray. It feels like they know he's a Jerry pick (actually Switzer suggested him which is many cases is even worse) and they told us up-and-down that Murray is just a speed back with 'no wiggle' and now they are being proven wrong.

In many ways this reminds me of 2007. Except back then the media couldn't say a good word about that team and eventually went to well, they'll get killed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Now it is the fans and their weird dismissal of Murray's success. I think like the press in 2007 was wrong about TO, Wade and the Cowboys...the fans are now realizing they've been wrong about Murray and want to say 'it's all the O-Line' despite Murray averaging 5.1 yards per carry before this season.

I can understand the worry about signing him to a big contract because RB's can be found at good value, but anytime that is discussed it is usually followed up by Adrian Peterson is a better running back or I'd rather have LeSean McCoy or we should draft Todd Gurley.

I do think the amount of carries he's getting is a concern for next season and we need to get bigger leads and use Randle and Dunbar more with that lead and get Murray about 20 carries a game. If we can do that for the rest of the season, Murray would end up with 360 carries for the year, well below the 385 mark. And that would put him on pace for 1,765 yards rushing and 16 rushing TD's.





YR

 

[Yakuza Rich]

You can believe what ever you want to believe. I'll believe the fact that every single time a runner hits the 400 carry wall, they decline sharply. So, no. It certainly isn't irrelevant.

Every. Single. Time.

Eric Dickerson is the exception.

He had 404 carries in 1986 and then 'only' had 1,288 yards rushing in 1987. But, he switched teams mid-season and still averaged MORE yards per carry in '87 than he did in '86. And then in '88 he had 369 carries for 1,659 yards.





YR

 

[Doomsday101]

I agree on the fanbase wanting to push out Murray. It feels like they know he's a Jerry pick (actually Switzer suggested him which is many cases is even worse) and they told us up-and-down that Murray is just a speed back with 'no wiggle' and now they are being proven wrong.

In many ways this reminds me of 2007. Except back then the media couldn't say a good word about that team and eventually went to well, they'll get killed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Now it is the fans and their weird dismissal of Murray's success. I think like the press in 2007 was wrong about TO, Wade and the Cowboys...the fans are now realizing they've been wrong about Murray and want to say 'it's all the O-Line' despite Murray averaging 5.1 yards per carry before this season.

I can understand the worry about signing him to a big contract because RB's can be found at good value, but anytime that is discussed it is usually followed up by Adrian Peterson is a better running back or I'd rather have LeSean McCoy or we should draft Todd Gurley.

I do think the amount of carries he's getting is a concern for next season and we need to get bigger leads and use Randle and Dunbar more with that lead and get Murray about 20 carries a game. If we can do that for the rest of the season, Murray would end up with 360 carries for the year, well below the 385 mark. And that would put him on pace for 1,765 yards rushing and 16 rushing TD's.





YR

I think coaches understand this as well in terms of carries and I think there will be games where we may not have to lean on Murray as much. Right now Dallas is doing what they need to do to win ball games.

 

[Ren]

I don't think our running game would drop completely off with Randall, Murray is obviously the best option but I'm confident we could still run effectively behind this line with Randall

 

[65fastback2plus2]

You can believe what ever you want to believe. I'll believe the fact that every single time a runner hits the 400 carry wall, they decline sharply. So, no. It certainly isn't irrelevant.

Every. Single. Time.

Every. Single. Time. With. A. Sample. Size. Of. 2. LOL.

 

[85Cowboy85]

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about DeMarco Murray titled "The Cowboys Fatal Flaw" (I love that everyone hates us again). The writer Kevin Clark claims Murray can't sustain the pace he is on because only two RBs have ever had a season with that many (400) and both (Larry Johnson and Jamal Anderson) fell off the map immediately after.

There's some argument here that correlation does not necessarily equal causation. It's been debated before and I would point you to this:
http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2012/preseason/myth-overworked-running-backs

Or this:
http://cowboyszone.com/threads/the-myth-of-370-carries.156070/

The one thing we can determine though is that this season is likely a statistical outlier for Murray. It would be unwise to pay him as if he is going to produce like he is now for the next 3-4 years.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Eric Dickerson is the exception.

He had 404 carries in 1986 and then 'only' had 1,288 yards rushing in 1987. But, he switched teams mid-season and still averaged MORE yards per carry in '87 than he did in '86. And then in '88 he had 369 carries for 1,659 yards.





YR

Wait...I thought it was Every. Single. Time....LOL

 

[joseephuss]

Eric Dickerson is the exception.

He had 404 carries in 1986 and then 'only' had 1,288 yards rushing in 1987. But, he switched teams mid-season and still averaged MORE yards per carry in '87 than he did in '86. And then in '88 he had 369 carries for 1,659 yards.





YR

He only played 12 games in 1987 like the majority of players that season due to the strike/scab games. That was a big reason he didn't have more carries and yards that year. He still averaged 23.6 carries per game. If he would have been able to play 4 more games at the pace he set he would have had over 370 rushing attempts and over 1700 rushing yards. The guy was the definite exception to the curse of what happens when guys carry it more than 370 times in a season. So was Emmitt Smith and Emmitt got a lot more carries in the playoffs to go along with regular season rushes than Dickerson got.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k11curseof370_archive

 

[Gridiron Man]

Murray has just as much to do with the success in the ground game as our offensive line has to do with it. I don't know why people think it's all about the line. Murray has preformed well with little support up front. Now he is benefiting from a rebuilt line. Look at how many RBs we have gone through over the years. How do they compare to Murray?

I don't think we need to burn a draft pick in 2015 on another RB if the price is right for Murray.

 

[Bleu Star]

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about DeMarco Murray titled "The Cowboys Fatal Flaw" (I love that everyone hates us again). The writer Kevin Clark claims Murray can't sustain the pace he is on because only two RBs have ever had a season with that many (400) and both (Larry Johnson and Jamal Anderson) fell off the map immediately after.

I was a guy against the Marion Barber III contract because I didn't think he would hold up as an every down back. But in this case I disagree with the article, I think Murray can hold up because of his style and because of the OL he is running behind.

What do you guys think? This is the WSJ Article:

Data suggests that there is a limit to what a running back can handle. A 400-carry season, which Murray is on pace to pass, usually signals the end of a player’s career. After former Kansas City Chief Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times in 2006, he only played in eight games the next season and never again played a full season. Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson became a star in 1998 while running 410 times. He played two games the next season and was out of football three years later.

Even if the workload is reduced, there may still be a problem. Accumulating 650 carries in two years is typically a bad career move. In the last decade, 17 players have done it, and essentially, only LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have made it out in fine shape and stayed healthy. Most with that large a workload end up injured or unproductive: Larry Johnson, Travis Henry and Willie Parker all had big drops in production after two busy seasons of running the ball.

The Cowboys are faced with the most intriguing choice in football this season: Do they keep riding their running back, consequences be damned, or do they try to find some balance in their final 10 games, even if it means less success?

America’s Team is back, but for how long?


This the link but its behind the pay wall:

http://on.wsj.com/1xUolH9

Murray can handle anything we throw at him. He's that good. He's the least of our worries.