Is Murray on an unsustainable pace?

[Angus12]

Every. Single. Time. With. A. Sample. Size. Of. 2. LOL.

Not sure where you're getting only 2 backs have reached that plateau, but ok. And if you'll be honest, which I'm beginning to see is tough for you, I originally said RBs that approach 400 carries. You are the one that set the bar AT 400. But even so, there are more than 2 RBs that have hit that number. Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, Eric Dickerson, and Eddie George. Admittedly, I missed Eric Dickerson when I looked at the list. The others on that list fell hard in the following seasons.

And if we go with what I originally stated, about approaching that number, the list grows quite a bit. Gerald Riggs, Ricky Williams, Terrell Davis, Barry Foster, Edgerrin James, Walter Payton, and Marcus Allen. All with 380+ carries. Added to the group above, all fell off quite substantially. Some to the point where their careers were basically over. The only one's that didn't of that group was Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson. So a couple all-timers, one arguably the best RB ever. So, yeah. History says you are wrong on this.

 

[big dog cowboy]

America’s Team is back, but for how long?

You mean our comeback only lasted 6 games?

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Not sure where you're getting only 2 backs have reached that plateau, but ok. And if you'll be honest, which I'm beginning to see is tough for you, I originally said RBs that approach 400 carries. You are the one that set the bar AT 400. But even so, there are more than 2 RBs that have hit that number. Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, James Wilder, Eric Dickerson, and Eddie George. Admittedly, I missed Eric Dickerson when I looked at the list. The others on that list fell hard in the following seasons.

And if we go with what I originally stated, about approaching that number, the list grows quite a bit. Gerald Riggs, Ricky Williams, Terrell Davis, Barry Foster, Edgerrin James, Walter Payton, and Marcus Allen. All with 380+ carries. Added to the group above, all fell off quite substantially. Some to the point where their careers were basically over. The only one's that didn't of that group was Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson. So a couple all-timers, one arguably the best RB ever. So, yeah. History says you are wrong on this.

its ok, i'll let you wiggle out of this one.

 

[xwalker]

There is an article in today's Wall Street Journal about DeMarco Murray titled "The Cowboys Fatal Flaw" (I love that everyone hates us again). The writer Kevin Clark claims Murray can't sustain the pace he is on because only two RBs have ever had a season with that many (400) and both (Larry Johnson and Jamal Anderson) fell off the map immediately after.

I was a guy against the Marion Barber III contract because I didn't think he would hold up as an every down back. But in this case I disagree with the article, I think Murray can hold up because of his style and because of the OL he is running behind.

What do you guys think? This is the WSJ Article:

Data suggests that there is a limit to what a running back can handle. A 400-carry season, which Murray is on pace to pass, usually signals the end of a player’s career. After former Kansas City Chief Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times in 2006, he only played in eight games the next season and never again played a full season. Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson became a star in 1998 while running 410 times. He played two games the next season and was out of football three years later.

Even if the workload is reduced, there may still be a problem. Accumulating 650 carries in two years is typically a bad career move. In the last decade, 17 players have done it, and essentially, only LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have made it out in fine shape and stayed healthy. Most with that large a workload end up injured or unproductive: Larry Johnson, Travis Henry and Willie Parker all had big drops in production after two busy seasons of running the ball.

The Cowboys are faced with the most intriguing choice in football this season: Do they keep riding their running back, consequences be damned, or do they try to find some balance in their final 10 games, even if it means less success?

America’s Team is back, but for how long?


This the link but its behind the pay wall:

http://on.wsj.com/1xUolH9

I think they will gradually start giving Randle and Dunbar more snaps. They both had success against the Seahawks in limited snaps.

 

[Thomas82]

The truth of the matter is he needs to have a big game at some point that can sustain several smaller ones. I think we are going to need him fresh for the playoffs. To have that he's going to need at least one monster game to sustain this pace.

You hit the nail on the head.

 

[Kaiser]

I think they will gradually start giving Randle and Dunbar more snaps. They both had success against the Seahawks in limited snaps.

I agree, also I disagree with the WSJ article on a couple of fronts. Murray isn't a power back that crashes into every tackler - another reason I mentioned Marion Barber III as an example of a guy I didn't think would hold up. Murray is more the Emmitt Smith type that will break tackles but isn't getting hit square on most plays.

Its also a function of this offensive line, Murray is typically a few yards past the line of scrimmage when he gets hit the first time. He isn't taking the abuse that some of the other RBs listed in this thread have.

 

[BAT]

Agreed, but I do think Murray helps wear down a defense a little better than most backs because of his physical style.


I think a lot of other RB's could do more when they get into the secondary though.

Murray is a really good runner but the yards he leaves on the field drive me insane sometimes.

Murray is leading the league in yards, as well as carries. The yards he is picking up on his own is much more than the yards he is leaving on the field. And pace is always one of those stats that make me laugh. Pace changes every single week, depending on what Murray generates each Sunday. If Murray runs for 200 on 10 carries against the Giants then his pace will change drastically as well. So will his projected total yards.

Forget the stats for once, enjoy what is happening in the now, Cowboys are WINning, and in dominant fashion. Those Ws are my favorite "stat" in any case.

 

[Beast_from_East]

If we can ride Murray to an appearance in the NFCCG, then freaking do it.........................He is in the last year of his contract and might not be here next season so why save him for another team next year?

Ride him into the ground and then go get another RB, besides if 400 carries is a career ender I don't see Murray complaining about it.

 

[NoLuv4Jerry]

Not to sound cold or anything, but if we can ride Murray with 400+ carries and make a deep playoff run, why the hell would we not?

Use him up in the last year of his contract, then go get another RB if 400 carries is a career ender.

I'm sorry. But your reply is deeply disturbing.

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

Yeah, his number of carries is not sustainable based on historical evidence. But the thing is, all it takes is one game where they get up huge on an opponent in the first half and he won't carry it 25 times that game. The other guys will take some of the load.

 

[kramskoi]

I agree on the fanbase wanting to push out Murray. It feels like they know he's a Jerry pick (actually Switzer suggested him which is many cases is even worse) and they told us up-and-down that Murray is just a speed back with 'no wiggle' and now they are being proven wrong.

In many ways this reminds me of 2007. Except back then the media couldn't say a good word about that team and eventually went to well, they'll get killed by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Now it is the fans and their weird dismissal of Murray's success. I think like the press in 2007 was wrong about TO, Wade and the Cowboys...the fans are now realizing they've been wrong about Murray and want to say 'it's all the O-Line' despite Murray averaging 5.1 yards per carry before this season.

I can understand the worry about signing him to a big contract because RB's can be found at good value, but anytime that is discussed it is usually followed up by Adrian Peterson is a better running back or I'd rather have LeSean McCoy or we should draft Todd Gurley.

I do think the amount of carries he's getting is a concern for next season and we need to get bigger leads and use Randle and Dunbar more with that lead and get Murray about 20 carries a game. If we can do that for the rest of the season, Murray would end up with 360 carries for the year, well below the 385 mark. And that would put him on pace for 1,765 yards rushing and 16 rushing TD's.





YR

You want to spare the guy...but how to do it and not affect the team's current third down conversion rate? You could spare him 10 carries a game and not make the playoffs. Then what was it really all for...a championship? or saving a player from a fate that may or may not happen. That 1,765 would almost equal to the yard Emmitt's best rushing season (1995), so I can't really disagree with you, but this pitch-count business is rather silly at the moment because I feel that the Cowboys have a chance to make some lemonade over the next 4-5 weeks...the team still has a bye coming up. You could theoretically spare him down the stretch if it comes to that. Dallas has a real opportunity to bank some wins and avoid turning December into a crisis for once. Moreover...it is very likely that Murray "will" miss time with an injury before this season is done. Rarely does a RB make it through an entire season without missed time...even if it is just a week or two. I just think this pitch-count thing is going overboard. With the sun shining and the wind at their back, they need to be thinking of only one thing...banking wins!

 

[CATCH17]

You want to spare the guy...but how to do it and not affect the team's current third down conversion rate? You could spare him 10 carries a game and not make the playoffs. Then what was it really all for...a championship? or saving a player from a fate that may or may not happen. That 1,765 would almost equal to the yard Emmitt's best rushing season (1995), so I can't really disagree with you, but this pitch-count business is rather silly at the moment because I feel that the Cowboys have a chance to make some lemonade over the next 4-5 weeks...the team still has a bye coming up. You could theoretically spare him down the stretch if it comes to that. Dallas has a real opportunity to bank some wins and avoid turning December into a crisis for once. Moreover...it is very likely that Murray "will" miss time with an injury before this season is done. Rarely does a RB make it through an entire season without missed time...even if it is just a week or two. I just think this pitch-count thing is going overboard. With the sun shining and the wind at their back, they need to be thinking of only one thing...banking wins!

We won't lose much production, if any, if they let someone else cut into his carries.

This is more about the OL and playcalling than it is Murray's greatness.

 

[CanadianCowboysFan]

History has shown us that RBs that get up close to 400 carries or over are quickly spent. Look at guys like Larry Johnson, Barry Foster, Jamal Anderson, Eddie George, Jamal Lewis, Shawn Alexander, etc... Looked unstoppable and piled up high carries. Then the next season had drastic fall offs.

If we don't want to see that happen to Murray, we'd better find out how to cut in to the carries he's getting. Because he's on a pace to go over 400 if he remains healthy all season. Or maybe, the plan is to ride him until he drops and then cut him loose after the season considering this the final year on his contract. Harsh, but this is a harsh business.

True but he has barely played the last few years so this is making up for it

 

[BAT]

We won't lose much production, if any, if they let someone else cut into his carries.

This is more about the OL and playcalling than it is Murray's greatness.

You are being delusional now. None of our backs, other than Murray, has even had a 100 yard game, never mind a 200 yard game, even more the franchise record for most yards in a game prevously set by rushing champion of all time, ROH & HOFer, Emmitt Smith. No one knows if either guy can hold up or even sustain 10 carries a game, let alone how they will produce. Not one back other than Murray is trusted to carry on 3rd and short, for a very good reason. The Cowboys know they have a special back in Murray, it is undeniable.

Let's not confuse a 38 yard run for anything more than it was. Very nice, but not Jim Brown kind of nice. Huge diffence people.

 

[kramskoi]

We won't lose much production, if any, if they let someone else cut into his carries.

This is more about the OL and playcalling than it is Murray's greatness.

Be that as it may, but the guy has a whopping 41 third down conversions...no other player in the NFL has more than 26 (Jennings who is out in New York). Not sure you want to tamper with that type of potency on third down rushing attempts.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Be that as it may, but the guy has a whopping 41 third down conversions...no other player in the NFL has more than 26 (Jennings who is out in New York). Not sure you want to tamper with that type of potency on third down rushing attempts.

Um, Murray doesn't have 41 third-down conversions. The Cowboys as a team only have 45 third-down conversions. Murray has 9.

 

[BAT]

Um, Murray doesn't have 41 third-down conversions. The Cowboys as a team only have 45 third-down conversions. Murray has 9.

Are you seriously trying to say that Murray only has 9 third down conversions in 6 games??

Not sure where you got your numbers but you could not be more wrong. Cowboys were averaging over 23 first downs A GAME. Before the Seahawks game, Murray had a whopping 37 first down in 5 games.

The Cowboys offense ranks third in the league overall with 23.8 first downs per game. Murray has directly contributed 37 first downs himself, far and away the most by any RB in the league. But his contribution to the Cowboys offense ges far beyond that, because he helps put the entire offense into manageable third down situations.
Football Outsiders show that despite an unparalleled workload, Murray has the second highest success rate of 61% among all qualifying NFL running backs. That means that 61% of his carries are counted as a "success", i.e. a carry gains 40% of the required yards on first down, 60% of required yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
And if you're successful on first and second down, you put yourself in favorable third down situations: With 6.52 yards, the Cowboys have the sixth lowest average yards to go on third down. With that, it doesn't come as a surprise that the Cowboys offense is ranked number one in the league with a 55.6% third down conversion rate.
All of this, and more, is why DeMarco Murray is one of the leading MVP candidates this year.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014...s-demarco-murray-with-5-1-odds-to-win-nfl-mvp

 

[Zman5]

http://i124.***BLOCKED***/albums/p15/zman55/c86.jpg

 

[JD_KaPow]

Are you seriously trying to say that Murray only has 9 third down conversions in 6 games??

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Because that's the actual number. (Actually, it's 9 rushing 3rd-down conversions: he also has one receiving).

Not sure where you got your numbers but you could not be more wrong. Cowboys were averaging over 23 first downs A GAME. Before the Seahawks game, Murray had a whopping 37 first down in 5 games.

Yes, that is also true.

I leave the rest as an exercise for the reader. But here's a hint: nothing in that quote says anything about Murray's 3rd-down conversions.

 

[BAT]

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Because that's the actual number. (Actually, it's 9 rushing 3rd-down conversions: he also has one receiving).

Yes, that is also true.

I leave the rest as an exercise for the reader. But here's a hint: nothing in that quote says anything about Murray's 3rd-down conversions.

Fair enough Jim, completely read it wrong first time around. Def my bad.