is there such thing as choke/clutch QBs?

[LatinMind]

Allow me to mention the extremes: Joe Montana/Roger Staubach
and Tony Romo/Danny White (though Danny half more playoff wins and has lots more charisma)

Ive ever seen a more head strong person then Danny White. He was murdered every week for Dallas shortcomings. Can you imagine if there was internet then. Would be 100 times worse then tony gets

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Start with the null hypothesis: QBs who make it to the point of starting in the NFL are not guys whose performance changes dramatically in "pressure" situations. Given that hypothesis, we'd expect a fairly normal distribution of late-game/final-drive/playoff performances: some guys will do better than they normally do, some will do worse, most will do about the same. Which is pretty much what we see. This will be impacted by some specific things that aren't character-related: defenses are better in the playoffs, some guys do better against certain types of defenses than others, etc.

I don't believe that anyone who's made it to this level has a problem with performing under pressure. They've been doing it their whole lives. And I don't think there's any solid evidence pointing otherwise.

I get what you're saying, but just because you've "made it this far" doesn't mean you've been on the grandest of stages. That's like saying playoff experience doesn't matter. Seems to work in favor of the San Antonio Spurs. Look at it this way... (I'm just giving an example using Tony Romo but I'm not saying he's a choker or not.) Romo didn't even play division 1 football. Or he played 1AA or something like that. So he wasn't on the same stage as 99% of other QBs who played 1A for elite schools in elite conferences. These guys played in Sugar Bowls, Rose Bowls, etc. Then he doesn't even get drafted and is a long shot to ever make a professional football team. After a few minor miracles, he made the NFL. And where did he go? To the Dallas Cowboys. Probably the most famous franchise (them and the Yankees) in any sport in the entire world. Just because he's extremely talented and played small ball at a no-name college, doesn't mean he's predisposed to being completely comfortable in the most stressful job in all of American sports.

My point is, I don't really buy the argument that just because he made it to the big leagues that he can't fold under pressure. Look at LeBron. No athlete on the planet (probably in the history of sports) has ever had as much on his shoulders as he does. You have to be pretty headstrong to handle that kind of pressure. Not every professional in the NBA can handle that.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I get what you're saying, but just because you've "made it this far" doesn't mean you've been on the grandest of stages. That's like saying playoff experience doesn't matter. Seems to work in favor of the San Antonio Spurs. Look at it this way... (I'm just giving an example using Tony Romo but I'm not saying he's a choker or not.) Romo didn't even play division 1 football. Or he played 1AA or something like that. So he wasn't on the same stage as 99% of other QBs who played 1A for elite schools in elite conferences. These guys played in Sugar Bowls, Rose Bowls, etc. Then he doesn't even get drafted and is a long shot to ever make a professional football team. After a few minor miracles, he made the NFL. And where did he go? To the Dallas Cowboys. Probably the most famous franchise (them and the Yankees) in any sport in the entire world. Just because he's extremely talented and played small ball at a no-name college, doesn't mean he's predisposed to being completely comfortable in the most stressful job in all of American sports.

See, I think you're arguing my point. Tony went from a small school to a huge stage with crushing pressure every day just to stay on the roster...and excelled in that situation so much that he became the starter. If he was the kind of guy who performs worse when the pressure is on, he would have disappeared quickly and we'd never be in a position to analyze his performance in big games.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

See, I think you're arguing my point. Tony went from a small school to a huge stage with crushing pressure every day just to stay on the roster...and excelled in that situation so much that he became the starter. If he was the kind of guy who performs worse when the pressure is on, he would have disappeared quickly and we'd never be in a position to analyze his performance in big games.

Okay, I get what you're saying. Romo earned his way. But I still think that professionals can choke. Romo was thrown into the spotlight when Bledsoe went down. Romo handled it well. But there are lots of guys who get thrown in and don't handle it. There are 1st round picks who can't handle it. But didn't they make it so far? They won national titles at schools like Ohio State and Alabama, but then they fold the second they get a starting job in the NFL. How does that happen?

 

[Rockport]

I like to think of it more as a comparison.

But if Romo is not allowed in this discussion I would like to know so I can edit out Romo's name and replace it with . . . i dunno, someone who chokes at the worst times, has great PERSONAL stats and is rich beyond compare.

Best wishes and a happy news year

Must suck to be a hater. LOL!!

 

[JD_KaPow]

Look at LeBron. No athlete on the planet (probably in the history of sports) has ever had as much on his shoulders as he does. You have to be pretty headstrong to handle that kind of pressure. Not every professional in the NBA can handle that.

You just said that he's the only person who's been in that situation, and then you say that nobody else could handle that situation. How do you know?

 

[JoeyBoy718]

You just said that he's the only person who's been in that situation, and then you say that nobody else could handle that situation. How do you know?

Well, I guess my point is, there are different stages and I don't think you ever assume someone won't eventually choke just because they've "made it this far."

For example, I just used an example of an elite college QB who plays in a big college conference and wins big bowl games and goes in the 1st round of the draft and then can't handle the pressure of the NFL. Well, he made it that far. He excelled at the highest level of college football and then couldn't excel at the lowest level of pro football. And then you have guys who have excelled in the NFL during the regular season but then don't excel in the playoffs. And then guys who excel in the playoffs but not in the Super Bowl. I guess my point is, there are different levels of big stages. I would call playing in the BCS National Championship a pretty big stage. But just because you excel there, doesn't mean you will in the NFL. And just because you excelled to a certain extent in the NFL, doesn't mean you will at a higher level.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Okay, I get what you're saying. Romo earned his way. But I still think that professionals can choke. Romo was thrown into the spotlight when Bledsoe went down. Romo handled it well. But there are lots of guys who get thrown in and don't handle it. There are 1st round picks who can't handle it. But didn't they make it so far? They won national titles at schools like Ohio State and Alabama, but then they fold the second they get a starting job in the NFL. How does that happen?

It happens for a whole variety of reasons. Usually they're just not good enough. Tim Tebow failed because he can't throw accurately. Sometimes they're not set up for success, because of poor coaching, poor talent around them, being thrown to the wolves before they were ready, etc. David Carr comes to mind. Alex Smith failed for the same reason...and then succeeded when he was put in a better situation. And the guys who fail often don't last long enough to develop to their potential. And yes, some of them fail because they don't have the work ethic or discipline required (think JaMarcus Russell).

There are lots of obvious reasons that QB prospects fail without having to resort to armchair psychoanalysis about their "chokiness".

 

[percyhoward]

I've always been a Romo basher, mainly for "choking" in key games. But I'm wondering if such a thing really exists. I was watching Numbers Never Lie and they were saying how the Lions went 1-6 in the final 7 games to blow a division with 2 injured QBs in Cutler and Rodgers. I mean that's pretty awful. Marcellus Wiley was saying it was Stafford's fault. Also, I know Peyton caught flack his whole career for performing much worse in the playoffs as opposed to his Earth shattering regular season performances. Is Peyton a choke artist or are those playoff defenses just too much for him? Brady won 3 Super Bowls playing solid (but not great) football. Then once he reached his prime, he never won again. How does a QB go from clutch to choke? Is it because the Patriot's defense hasn't been the same since their last Super Bowl win? If so, then why does Brady get so much credit for those 3 Super Bowls? These are just a few questions regarding the choke/clutch phenomenon. And of course, what's a choke thread without mention of Romo? .

It's all perception. When somebody tries to define "choke" or "clutch," it ends up being more art than science.

Any time FOX or NFLN comes up with a stat to show how Romo is a choker, they have to be very, very careful how they set each of the parameters in order to keep guys like Brady and Rodgers from appearing there next to Romo in the results. They're playing to people's perceptions, after all, and no one perceives Brady and Rodgers that way.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

It happens for a whole variety of reasons. Usually they're just not good enough. Tim Tebow failed because he can't throw accurately. Sometimes they're not set up for success, because of poor coaching, poor talent around them, being thrown to the wolves before they were ready, etc. David Carr comes to mind. Alex Smith failed for the same reason...and then succeeded when he was put in a better situation. And the guys who fail often don't last long enough to develop to their potential. And yes, some of them fail because they don't have the work ethic or discipline required (think JaMarcus Russell).

There are lots of obvious reasons that QB prospects fail without having to resort to armchair psychoanalysis about their "chokiness".

I agree with you about coaching. I think a coach can play a large role in instilling confidence in his QB. Look at Brady. Of course he's talented, but so is Peyton. But Brady just looks so much more confident in big moments than Peyton (in my opinion). I think Bellichick had a lot to do with that. I mentioned that Romo tries to do too much sometimes because I feel like he lacks confidence in the guys around him. I see the complete opposite in Brady. There are times when he's shocked that he got sacked. Then there are times when Romo throws the ball away when no one is even close to him. Confidence in your teammates but also confidence from your head coach.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I agree with you about coaching. I think a coach can play a large role in instilling confidence in his QB. Look at Brady. Of course he's talented, but so is Peyton. But Brady just looks so much more confident in big moments than Peyton (in my opinion). I think Bellichick had a lot to do with that. I mentioned that Romo tries to do too much sometimes because I feel like he lacks confidence in the guys around him. I see the complete opposite in Brady. There are times when he's shocked that he got sacked. Then there are times when Romo throws the ball away when no one is even close to him. Confidence in your teammates but also confidence from your head coach.

I actually share this perception. Sometimes I watch Romo and think he's getting it out to quickly because he's feeling a rush that isn't there. A couple points about that: (1) I really have no idea if my perception is accurate - there's a billion times more stuff happening on the field than I can process, I know that. (2) I don't think those times correlate with "high pressure" times in a game. I've seen it early in games, late in games, in big games, in not-so-big games. I've seen him hang in against a rush or escape from it and make the huge play at the biggest times, too (think the 4th-and-goal in the Washington game). So even if what you say is true, I think it has nothing to do with being clutch or a choker.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Ive ever seen a more head strong person then Danny White. He was murdered every week for Dallas shortcomings. Can you imagine if there was internet then. Would be 100 times worse then tony gets

Yeah, but Danny was more lovable and he half a good personality.
Dang. I would half loved to half the Internet in Danny's day.
We would half kilt him! (figuratively, that is)

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Must suck to be a hater. LOL!!

Naw it gift me direction in life. By the way, if you are available, I would like to hate you.

 

[5Stars]

I've always been a Romo basher, mainly for "choking" in key games. But I'm wondering if such a thing really exists. I was watching Numbers Never Lie and they were saying how the Lions went 1-6 in the final 7 games to blow a division with 2 injured QBs in Cutler and Rodgers. I mean that's pretty awful. Marcellus Wiley was saying it was Stafford's fault. Also, I know Peyton caught flack his whole career for performing much worse in the playoffs as opposed to his Earth shattering regular season performances. Is Peyton a choke artist or are those playoff defenses just too much for him? Brady won 3 Super Bowls playing solid (but not great) football. Then once he reached his prime, he never won again. How does a QB go from clutch to choke? Is it because the Patriot's defense hasn't been the same since their last Super Bowl win? If so, then why does Brady get so much credit for those 3 Super Bowls? These are just a few questions regarding the choke/clutch phenomenon. And of course, what's a choke thread without mention of Romo? As much as I like to hate on him, he went to the playoffs 3 out of 4 years with a top 13 defense, and the only year he missed was when he missed 3 games due to injury. Does that make those playoff streaks that Peyton and Brady had look less impressive? Romo could have done it too with a decent defense. Flacco and Big Ben did it many years. I'm just kinda philosophizing but I just want to get people's opinions. Now that I think about it, this is probably better suited for the Rant or NFL forum.

Yeah, Romo. Feel better now?

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Yeah, Romo. Feel better now?

I didn't hate him once in this thread. I've been kinda trying to defend him for some odd reason.

 

[zack]

This is the thing with Romo, people can name the 7 games or more were he made a mistake that may or may have not contributed to a loss. So, let me see if I can rattle off a few off the top of my head. The Jets game, Pittsburgh, Lions game a couple of years ago, Skins game last year, Packers game this year, and if you are really reaching the Denver game. Oh, and the Seattle game to which really had nothing to do with his QB'ing skills.

So, you mean to tell me that you can't find 7 games or more that Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees threw a costly pick and lost the game for them? Like someone mentioned in this thread, Tom Brady has thrown 3 INT's at the end of the games this year. Peyton Manning threw it across the field for an INT vs the Ravens last playoffs. Eli threw 27 picks this year and let alone has thrown for more than 20 picks in a season three times.

What about that stat they threw out during the Eagles game. We have played in 35 one possession games. How good has our defense been during those 35 games....awful. How many times has the defense stepped up and made a stop when they have to? How many times has it been done for Eli, Brady? A ton. All of this contributes to whether or not a guy is a choker or clutch. Generally, the better the team, the more clutch the QB is considered.

Bottom line is that Romo plays for Dallas. If were playing anywhere else, he would be like Kurt Warner. He would be consider the American dream, overcoming the obstacles. From an undrafted FA to an NFL starter. Period, point blank, end of story.

 

[Apollo Creed]

If the ref's mark Witten's forward progress correctly in Seattle in 2006 and Crayton holds on to that ball in 2007 against the Giants - Romo magically becomes 'clutch' and history suddenly looks a lot different.

 

[DandyDon1722]

I like to think of it more as a comparison.

But if Romo is not allowed in this discussion I would like to know so I can edit out Romo's name and replace it with . . . i dunno, someone who chokes at the worst times, has great PERSONAL stats and is rich beyond compare.

Best wishes and a happy news year

Let me do the work for you since your working hard on your sarcasm class today.

Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan who btw has led TWO 13-3 teams nowhere, Jay Cutler, and Phillip Rivers. All have had crucial picks all have little or no success the the playoffs and all are just as rich or richer than Tony. Hmnnnm - do ya think just maybe there is value on guys who at least have the potential to win for you?

I also believe that good or bad fortune play into perception. We've all seen it with Tony and Eli and how the script can change in a 3 point league with a drop here or a penalty there.[/quote]

 

[Red Dragon]

Tough question.

Aaron Rodgers is like 3-17 in comeback / 4th quarter situations yet NOBODY calls Aaron Rodgers a choke artist.

Tony Romo has like a 100+ QB rating in the same scenario and is considered a choke-artist by many.

Its obviously complicated.

Here is my theory -- once a QB wins a Superbowl -- the choke artist monicker won't stick anymore no matter how deserved.

Believe it or not, many Giants fans still think Eli Manning is a bad QB despite having won 2 SBs.

 

[theSHOW]

I wondered who would be the first to turn this into a bash Romo thread.

That is why this thread was started. And then we can parley this into a manziel thread which in turn will solve our QB issues.