I've Never Been Afraid To Predict Good Things For The Cowboys

[morasp]

Jason Garrett has been here 4 years now and has effectively put together the most talent deprived defense in the NFL heading into the 2014 season. Who woulda thunk it? Good news is he won't survive another poor year, he's out of scapegoats.

That's my beef, especially looking at how defense dominated in the playoffs. All you have to do is look at all of the first, second, and third round picks on offense and compare it to all of the third, fourth, and later picks plus some mid to low level FAs on defense.

 

[Hostile]

Where did I say it was bad?

I just wanted to see if this was a serious thread of just one to increase his post/like count

I never have cared about either one. Never will.

 

[burmafrd]

You can't predict anything with this team b/c they've been so wildly inconsistent. But if they can get to that 8-8 mark and sneak into the playoffs, then why can't they be a contender? I keep going back to the same example, but the Giants were awful for much of the season when they won their last Chip. There's no reason Dallas can't do the same.

The reality is that this team could just as easily go 3-13 as 13-3. The fact that there are so many question marks leave doubts about success, sure, but they also open the door to the chance that this team makes serious strides.

I don't buy for one second that we have a difficult schedule. There are some tough scheduling things late in the season, but in terms of the quality of the teams we play, it isn't tough at all. SF and NO are completely beatable, and the rest of our first 10 games are a whose who of bottom feeders. Is it really impossible to think that Dallas splits with SF and NO, then beats Tenn, STL, Hou, NYG, Wash, Zona, and Jax and start the season 8-2? Then you go .500 the rest of the way and finish 11-5? Is it likely, no, but impossible? Absolutely not.

The overall product of the NFL is so far down from what it was a few years ago that there isn't a single team in the league who doesn't have a major flaw. Everyone's beatable, and anyone could make a run. Dallas has an outstanding QB, good skill guys, and the potential to make leaps and bounds defensively (I don't think they were nearly as bad last year as the numbers suggest anyways, though losing Lee obviously hurts). Of course, it could all collapse, and everything could go wrong, but there's no reason to think this team can't make a run.

rolls eyes. 13-3? Really need to change your prescription on your glasses.

 

[Wezsh0T]

USA Today predicted NFC East as

NFC East

Eagles 11-5 (4): Class of weak division. But can Nick Foles reproduce 2013 magic? DeSean Jackson's speed will be missed.
Commanders 7-9: If the line and RG3's knee hold up, this offense will be hard to slow, but defense may be year away.
Giants 6-10: Eli Manning's supporting cast is getting younger, even if he isn't. Team speed doesn't impress.
Cowboys 3-13: Tony Romo's back, defense are looking awfully frail. Dallas fans might end up pining for .500 teams.

HAHA...this is funny. As long as Romo stays healthy and even with Weeden starting, we'd be better than 3-13. 8-8 is highly possible, but if we get some better than expected play and some lucky breaks, 10-6 is just as likely.

 

[Cowboy_Shawn]

In the immortal words of the old lady sitting next to Billy Crystal & Meg Ryan in 'When Harry Met Sally', I'll have what the OP is having.

He's an ultra-homer so no surprise seeing him post his annual prediction of greatness for the Cowboys.

I just don't see this windfall of increased talent on defense. We're banking on a gimpy Spencer to fully recover from a career threatening knee injury. We're hoping that two unproven young DL (Crawford & Lawrence) actually pan out. I like Melton but you never know how players will perform in their first year back from a serious knee injury.

The LB play will probably be inconsistent again and we still have a gaping hole at FS.

There are just way too many 'ifs' and question marks for the Cowboys. That's why I see them as a 6 to 8 win team. I'm leaning more towards 6.

 

[Future]

rolls eyes. 13-3? Really need to change your prescription on your glasses.

You need to change your reading comprehension lenses then, b/c it was a reference to the 3-13 prediction.

 

[DogFace]

Where did I say it was bad?

I just wanted to see if this was a serious thread of just one to increase his post/like count

Oh. I thought that was implied.

 

[LOBO7]

Its too early but,
We currently arnt beaten up like last year,
Offense better
Defense better
Schedule tougher except that the other teams in our division play a similar schedule.
We have as good a chance as anyone to win our division, so I have
alot of hope for that and a playoff appearance this year.
9-7 NFC East champs.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I've never been afraid of predicting good things either, I just don't see it this year.

1. Romo is not exactly a quick healer. I felt he didn't play anywhere near as well as his numbers show. He showed clear signs of slowing down, so with the back injury I'm not exactly thrilled. Reminds me a lot of Matt Hasselbeck his last few years in Seattle. If so, that means he'll be oft-injured.


2. With Sean Lee out, we need a lot of things to go right. You don't need a good defense to win if your offense is excellent. I think we have a chance with Linehan calling plays instead of Garrett, although there will undoubtedly be some learning curve of Linehan understanding how to best use talent. Still, we need all of the pieces we can get and my money is on Escobar's injury being severe in the end. Then we still have to worry about Murray not getting injured given his past.


3. With Sean Lee out, wee need a lot of things to go right. I have zero confidence that we'll be able to minimize injuries on defense. Haven't been able to do that since Garrett became HC and Woicik became Head Trainer.


4. We cannot afford another injury to a LB, period.


5. Claiborne and Carr don't fit the defense.


6. Our safety play is sketchy at best.


7. We have a coach that refused to go for it on 4th downs.


8. We haven't run a trick play on offense since the Parcells era.


9. I think it's imperative that this team get off to a good start. I get the sense that the team is starting to lose faith in Garrett. Unlike Wade, I don't think the entire team will quit on Garrett. But, if they get off to a rocky start I see a lot of players not wanting to fight for him.





YR

 

[BoysFan4ever]

Let's see. They play the toughest division in football.

They have a QB coming off back surgery.

They just lost their best linebacker.

Their defensive line had to be rebuilt..

Our defensive backs are a big question mark.

We have a horrible in game head coach.

I'll believe it when I see it that the Cowboys make any noise this year.

Sorry YR did not see your post. I just repeated the same concerns.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I just don't see the defense being anything but bad. The offense should keep us competitive if Romo stays healthy. Bad coaching and mistakes that always cost us games need to stop. I haven't seen anything in the last few years that convince me that it will. If the other NFC East teams remain bad then I think we can take the division or at least have a chance to. I'd like to see this team actually beat a good team before I say that this team is headed in the right direction. I just don't see it.

Then there is the schedule which looks brutal. that can always change though as some teams might be better than last year and some teams worse.

 

[CATCH17]

In the immortal words of the old lady sitting next to Billy Crystal & Meg Ryan in 'When Harry Met Sally', I'll have what the OP is having.

He's an ultra-homer so no surprise seeing him post his annual prediction of greatness for the Cowboys.

I just don't see this windfall of increased talent on defense. We're banking on a gimpy Spencer to fully recover from a career threatening knee injury. We're hoping that two unproven young DL (Crawford & Lawrence) actually pan out. I like Melton but you never know how players will perform in their first year back from a serious knee injury.

The LB play will probably be inconsistent again and we still have a gaping hole at FS.

There are just way too many 'ifs' and question marks for the Cowboys. That's why I see them as a 6 to 8 win team. I'm leaning more towards 6.

Even if the talent is better on defense it is still a bunch of 2nd rate talent.

All we can hope is that they can play above their level as a unit.

Im still not sold on these defensive schemes either. I think they are outdated and will get you killed against a spread attack.

We didn't slow down 1 top 10 passer last year. We got absolutely torched by these QB's when they came out in spread formations.

Until I see a Marinelli / Kiffin scheme stop this then I don't have much faith in it.

 

[adbutcher]

I hear everyone saying we're 8-8 again, or 6-10, even worse. I think that's a load of crap and I'll tell you why. The Defense is going to be a lot better in 2014, and we now have the makings of a really great OL.

How can I say the Defense will be better? It's real simple, it is no longer a M*A*S*H unit. When this team does improve a lot of people are going to have to explain why they were wrong about the injuries hurting us in 2013. They did hurt us. Way more than people realize.

We lost the best 2 pieces of our Defensive Line and I still say we're going to be better than last year. The reason is we finally have some decent depth. Nothing against Nick Hayden, but when he's a starter, you're in some trouble.

Let's look at DE from last year and this year.

2013...DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer (1 game), George Selvie, Landon Cohen, Edgar Jones, Caesar Rayford, Jason Vega, and Jarius Wynn.

2014...DeMarcus Lawrence, Anthony Spencer, Tyrone Crawford, Ben Gardner, Jeremy Mincey, George Selvie, and Martez Wilson.

I figure 6 of that group will make the team with Crawford getting work inside and out. Martez Wilson is probably the odd man out.

Now let's look at DT from last year and this year.

2013...Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, Jerome Long, Marvin Austin, Everette Brown, Everett Dawkins, Corvey Irvin, David Carter, Drake Nevis, and Frank Kearse.

2014...Henry Melton, Terrell McClain, Amobi Okoye, Josh Brent?, Ben Bishop, Ben Bass, and Davon Coleman.

I think people are really going to like Davon Coleman. Put him or Bishop with that first 4, or both of them and drop Brent.

With the Offense clearly looking to control the clock more with the ground game setting up the passing game, and the Defense actually having better depth for a fresh legs rotation I am saying the Defense is going to be better than people give it credit for. I just can't understand why people think last year's Defense wasn't the easy biggest issue with what was wrong with this team.

Enjoy the season, it's going to be a lot better than people think right now. I look forward to some excitement. Get excited now for your Cowboys. You won't regret it.

Great post as usual Hos. Top 5 O + Top 20 D = A Playoff Run but we have to stay reasonably healthy. Like with any team if we lose any of our offensive heavy hitters we will be in trouble.

Davon Coleman is my pet cat, the kid is freakish and what's scary is he now appears to get it. I will be watching him and Bishop. I anticipate it is going to be very fun to watch.

 

[adbutcher]

Way too many questions on defense still for me. I expect us to be quite good on offense and ST. Can see the defense being anything from awful again to mediocre.

Good news is mediocre should get us in the playoffs.

I suspect that that we will start off shaky early getting better as the season progresses. However, if the young pups come to play early; we will shock the hell out of people.

 

[adbutcher]

Look at the stats for 2011-2012 Ware sucked, for at least 1 year 1/2, plus! While Hatcher can never have a better season, Melton could.

While we're gonna blow chunks... for this DL rotation without injury, someone will make plays, you shouldn't discount Dallas in the East...that said rite now 7-9 at best...hoping for 3-13.

What the hell? You are wishing for a terrible season?

 

[adbutcher]

Sure, we'll probably have fewer injuries on defense. But we could easily have more on offense. Our O has been very healthy the last couple of years, especially last year. Dez, Murray and Tony with the back all have injury questions... And let Tyron or Frederick twist a knee and we won't be any better overall even if the defense is improved.

The same can be said for any team in the NFL. If you lose your good and great players, you will lose ballgames.

Success in the NFL is 1 part health, 1 part preparation, 1 part talent, and 1 part luck.

 

[dstovall5]

Honestly this year is even more blurry then our past 3 8-8 seasons. I do think we've gotten better, but a lot of that depends on the play of Romo as well. If Romo can be his normal self then I think we a great shot at winning the division, but if he's injured any then it looks very bleak.

 

[Hoofbite]

Predicting 8-8 is a load of crap? After 3 consecutive 8-8 finishes, predicting 8-8 is a load of crap?

 

[Carolina Cowboy]

Hos - I enjoy and try to make a point to read all of your posts; their insight and ofttimes insider take on the organization are a welcome respite from the forum norm.

That said, I think the offense (if Tony's back holds out) will be better. I agree our line is FINALLY doing what it should have been doing since 1996, getting younger, stronger, faster and better at every opportunity. It has the look of a line that could dominate games once it gels. I think our receiving core has the potential to be dynamic and I'm excited about what the new kid's potential brings to the mix. Barring injury, our TE and RB core is solid. All that said, the D is still an unknown and unproven commodity with a new coach. The d-line and the lb's will all have gone through heavy shuffling with new (and rookie) pieces at critical spots. The secondary, well who the hell knows what they'll do? Yes the line was porous and didn't lend much help in the way of cover last year, but not one CB, or S has stood out as anything other than JAG in this scheme (which is pretty damning considering the $'s spent back there). All of that coupled with the loss of our starting D-QB is a terrible thing given the coordinating calls that will have to be made as a result.

Can we catch lightening in a bottle, well I guess so, but color me in the crowd of not wanting to play Charlie Brown to Jerry Jone's Lucy this year.

 

[peplaw06]

I believe I predicted the Defense will be better than people expect.

The Problem is, that's a meaningless Prediction. It gives no quantitative basis for measuring the Prediction. Two People could expect this defense to give up all time records in Points and Yards, and you could claim your Prediction was correct.

What you're left with is a vague Rah Rah Prediction. Not Particularly compelling.