Landmines, Pitfalls and Quicksand

[Sydla]

Carroll was a position of need but was a bust. awuzie and Lewis more than made up for it. Overall, stephen's done s great job.

In FA?

He absolutely has not done a good job.

The fact Awuzie and Lewis can play doesn’t change the fact they totally whiffed on Carroll. They won’t sign a guy like Tre Boston, a better player, to a one year, cheap deal but had no problem giving a terrible CB in Carroll a two year deal that carried a dead money hit in year two.

Look at the list of FAs they have signed the last 5-6 years. It’s sad.

 

[cern]

In FA?

He absolutely has not done a good job.

The fact Awuzie and Lewis can play doesn’t change the fact they totally whiffed on Carroll. They won’t sign a guy like Tre Boston, a better player, to a one year, cheap deal but had no problem giving a terrible CB in Carroll a two year deal that carried a dead money hit in year two.

Look at the list of FAs they have signed the last 5-6 years. It’s sad.

Few are perfect. He did a good job shoring up the o-line in free agency last year.

 

[Sydla]

Few are perfect. He did a good job shoring up the o-line in free agency last year.

Who said perfect?

They’ve been bad at FA. Oh they’ve hit on a guy here or there but their overall success rate in FA has been pretty poor. It’s bizarre people think they’ve done well in FA.

 

[TheHerd]

I agree but is he really that elite that we should be discussing 20 to 23 mil a year? My god that is franchise QB money.

That's not quite franchise QB money. 12 QBs are at 23 or higher in terms of cap hit, 8 are over 25. But I agree we shouldn't pay DLaw 20-23.

 

[Melonfeud]

Awesome thread header,man!

* at first ,I thought you were offering up personally learned invaluable insights pertaining to marriage,,,er,,,till I hit the click to it

 

[jrumann59]

So when was Dlaw supposed to have his big year. He was drafted DE take about 3 years to get going. His injuries slowed him. So if he was a stud he should have balled out season 1 game 1. But since it takes time year 3-4 is where DE make that jump. Oh look at that he was drafted and got a 4 year contract he finally matured and developed in his 4th year, but hey it was fluke here is a Franchise Tag year, oh wait you only do it on contract years....

 

[Future]

He had 11.4 yards per reception last year. I threw out some figures. The bottom line Is I think if Jarwin ends up being the no 1 next year which he most likly will be unless they use a premium pick on a te or sign a F.A. then he will likely be in line for a big raise when his contract is over next year. Whether that is 70 catches for 800 yards or 60 catches for 600 yards. Either way he will be in line for a big raise.

Fair enough, but if that's the case, just let him walk. The Cowboys usage of TEs means that they don't need a high skill - or salary - player in the role. It's designed so that average TEs can be productive without being particularly good, and they're getting less and less usage every year in the Dak offense.



Fwiw, I think it's a good thing, b/c speed kills.

 

[Sandyf]

I understand what Killerinstinct is saying but the fact is every good team is going through the same thing. You can pay what if all day long but the fact remains whatever we pay any of these guys will be outdone before the ink is dry by another player on another team. You have to pay some of them least you want to be 3-13 every year. You have to draft well and find some cheap keepers in free agency but also willing to take a gamble or two in free agency. You have to have depth for injuries because you know they will happen.

I don't really care what the total contract dollars are because it is simply a fictitious number as is the average per year. All that really counts is the guarantee money and in which year of the contract you can release the player with the least amount of damage to the cap. Take Gerald McCoy for example, he signed a $108+ million for 8 years in 2014 with $51 million in guarantees (bonus, salary, etc.) and is due $13 million in 2019 and he is going to be cut with no cap implications. His 2020 cap would have been $13 million as would have been 2021. Simple math says the contract was really only $69 million.

So always comes down to guarantees. Frankly I could see them guarantees of about $65 million for Lawrence, $80 million on Dak, $35 million on Cooper, $40 million on Zeke, and $25 million on Jones. All of those numbers would be spread out over 5+ years with most of the guarantees over the first 4 years through bonus, salary, roster bonus, and incentives. Easily get out of those contracts in 4 years. We could even sign Earl Thomas to a $60 million 5 year contract with $30 million in guarantees and walk away from him in three year with under a $5 million cap hit.

Forget the total of the contract and look at the guarantees and years, that will tell you what is good and what is bad.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The front office is going to make or break this team for the foreseeable future with the decisions made over the next two years.

What if you sign Dlaw to the largest DE contract in the league like he wants and he takes a step back while Gregory takes another step forward? Dlaw had a couple of good years. Both of which were contract years. All of a sudden he is worthy of the largest DE contract in history? Imagine if we sign him and he ends up with 6 sacks next year and Gregory ends up with 12. How much will Gregory want to be paid?

What if you make Amari Cooper the 3rd highest paid WR in the league and he disappears like he did in Oak? I doubt this happens but I also doubt he will be the 3rd best WR in the league.

What if you sign Dak to a long term deal at what appears to be the going rate and he ends up being what he appears to be? A tough guy with accuracy problems that gets by as long as you have the best OL in the league and a Top 3 RB, and a defense playing over their heads, and 3 legit WR's. He looks like a mid tier QB to me with the possibility of growing into a top tier QB. If you pay him as a top tier QB then you are gambling. If you don't, you likely lose him.

Zeke - I can't imagine him doing any better than he has. In all likelihood his production is going to taper off some. Do yo want to pay him more than he is currently making for less production when current production wasn't good enough to win it all?

Byron Jones - One good year and fell off at the end and all of a sudden he should be paid like a shutdown corner? Every player on the team coming up for a new contract can't be paid like the g.o.a.t.

Jaylon Smith - the gamble appears to have paid off. Congrats. You got a couple of good years out of him. Can you afford to pay him for the next contract? After paying all these other stars of a 10 and 6 team? Hell, they are all superstars worthy of being amongst the highest paid at their respective positions.

Randy Gregory - it is looking like the gamble is finally starting to pay off there too. If he takes another step forward how much will ge be looking to get paid?

Lael Collins - already well paid. Is he going to be willing to take a smaller contract next year? Will we move on? If so will Williams pan out at RT? If he does, you better hope Sua filo continues to play well.

Sua Filo - Collins is gone, Williams is at RT and Sua Filo is playing well. How big will his contract have to be in 2020 to keep him? Especially when you consider what the rest of the O.L. are paid.

Blake Jarwin - His trajectory is up. If he takes another step forward he will be getting a huge pay raise next year too.

Antwan Woods and Maleik Collins. I think we are all hoping these two make major steps forward this year. Just in time for new contracts next year.

And people are talking about signing F.A.'s like Earl Thomas and Grady Jarrett? How?

You can't pay everyone like they are superstars. Especially when you are a 10 and 6 team.

If Dlaw wants more than 17 mil per year tag and trade him.
If Dak thinks he is the 25 to 30 mil a year man then he can seek it elsewhere. Trade him to Tampa.
Cooper is worth 15 per. Sign it or leave next year and we will take the comp pick.
Zeke has two more years of control and then see ya! Never use a top 4 pick on a RB again.
Sign Anthony Brown to an extension right now while he has never sniffed a decent pay day. That way if Byron thinks he is Revis he can pound sand.
Extend Jarwin now before he ends up with 70 catches and 800 yards next year.

When future extensions come up for the O.L. don't just immediately make them the highest paid players in the league at their respective positions. Play hardball and trade them if you have to.

so you are basically really afraid none of these players will come through and we shouldn't pay them...because you are scared....

 

[75boyz]

I understand what Killerinstinct is saying but the fact is every good team is going through the same thing. You can pay what if all day long but the fact remains whatever we pay any of these guys will be outdone before the ink is dry by another player on another team. You have to pay some of them least you want to be 3-13 every year. You have to draft well and find some cheap keepers in free agency but also willing to take a gamble or two in free agency. You have to have depth for injuries because you know they will happen.

I don't really care what the total contract dollars are because it is simply a fictitious number as is the average per year. All that really counts is the guarantee money and in which year of the contract you can release the player with the least amount of damage to the cap. Take Gerald McCoy for example, he signed a $108+ million for 8 years in 2014 with $51 million in guarantees (bonus, salary, etc.) and is due $13 million in 2019 and he is going to be cut with no cap implications. His 2020 cap would have been $13 million as would have been 2021. Simple math says the contract was really only $69 million.

So always comes down to guarantees. Frankly I could see them guarantees of about $65 million for Lawrence, $80 million on Dak, $35 million on Cooper, $40 million on Zeke, and $25 million on Jones. All of those numbers would be spread out over 5+ years with most of the guarantees over the first 4 years through bonus, salary, roster bonus, and incentives. Easily get out of those contracts in 4 years. We could even sign Earl Thomas to a $60 million 5 year contract with $30 million in guarantees and walk away from him in three year with under a $5 million cap hit.

Forget the total of the contract and look at the guarantees and years, that will tell you what is good and what is bad.

Really nice actual dollars and cents break down. Good post man.