Long term thinking in a short term game

[CouchCoach]

And if we’re going to prop Dak up with stats and #1 offense then we must give credit to our defense for being top 10 statistically .

If we had a more Elite QB it could already be enough. We really don’t know.

But imagine a QB closer to the Elite talent of our OL, RB and WR. That’s what I want!!!

I’m not sure why we settle for less at QB?

You are just a spoiled fan and think you deserve an elite QB because some other team has one. It's all about team, it's not just about an elite QB because you don't like Prescott.

 

[Diehardblues]

I’d be for paying Dak at the level of his talent if we are intent on retaining him. In mid 20’s.

Then you can continue surrounding him while attempting to beef up defense.

Not many teams with rare exceptions going to or winning Super Bowls without an Elite QB or defense . Right now we have neither.

 

[jaythecowboy]

The Cowboys want Prescott to commit to a 7-year deal so they can keep the cap hit down these next three years. They can structure the contract so Dak doesn't even count $35 million+ on the cap till year 4. That way the team can afford to put pieces around him during this three-year window with Zeke and the oline. A shorter deal (or especially the franchise tag) ensures we lose key positions immediately. That notion makes no sense for a team trying to win now.

 

[Diehardblues]

You are just a spoiled fan and think you deserve an elite QB because some other team has one. It's all about team, it's not just about an elite QB because you don't like Prescott.

Sure, I want the success they’ve been having. Why should we settle for less ? Because he’s our guy or we like him. Screw that. I want more ?

And I’ll continue arguing for it. It’s not personal with me. I’d love Dak as our backup. We finally found one we can win some games with.

Fans get too attached to these players without more success. Especially QB’s.

All about team sounds like some whiny parents rooting their kids on. Lol

 

[Diehardblues]

It's conservative thinking reiterated time and again by Jason Garrett's protecting the ball, not making any mistakes.

People who don't make mistakes aren't doing anything.

Oh I forgot. Fat Mikey is going to save us cause he’s had so much success without Elite QB’s.

Some of these fans sounding more like parents instead of the cut throat business of professional sports.

Please, join Jerry in the Country Club locker room and pat everyone on the back for another successful season . Wow

 

[CouchCoach]

I’d be for paying Dak at the level of his talent if we are intent on retaining him. In mid 20’s.

Then you can continue surrounding him while attempting to beef up defenses.

Not many teams with rare exceptions going to or winning Super Bowls without an Elite QB or defense . Right now we have neither.

Which team has both?

 

[Diehardblues]

Which team has both?

I didn’t say both. I said or. Details details CC.

 

[garyo1954]

Oh I forgot. Fat Mikey is going to save us cause he’s had so much success without Elite QB’s.

Some of these fans sounding more like parents instead of the cut throat business of professional sports.

Please, join Jerry in the Country Club locker room and pat everyone on the back for another successful season . Wow

Yeah. Seems like the only people lining up to snag the great Dak Prescott is the Dallas Cowboy fans.

Maybe most teams see Dak the same way former VP of NY Giants Player Evaluation, Marc Ross....

“Definitely. I think Sam just has more natural playmaking ability than Dak,” Ross said.

“Maybe not as consistent right now but Dak, to me, is if you need to go win a game, he’s not that caliber quarterback where Sam Darnold has shown flashes of that. And I believe still has potential to be that guy.”

 

[Diehardblues]

Yeah. Seems like the only people lining up to snag the great Dak Prescott is the Dallas Cowboy fans.

Maybe most teams see Dak the same way former VP of NY Giants Player Evaluation, Marc Ross....

“Definitely. I think Sam just has more natural playmaking ability than Dak,” Ross said.

“Maybe not as consistent right now but Dak, to me, is if you need to go win a game, he’s not that caliber quarterback where Sam Darnold has shown flashes of that. And I believe still has potential to be that guy.”

Yep

And Darnold potential would be higher with our supporting cast as Daks would be less with Jets.

Dak has been uplifted with the supporting cast he’s had. Without it probably wouldn’t even be a starter.

I’m grateful for what Daks done. He brought hope with his sensational Rookie season. But the honeymoon is over.

 

[garyo1954]

Yep

And Darnold potential would be higher with our supporting cast as Daks would be less with Jets.

Dak has been uplifted with the supporting cast he’s had. Without it probably wouldn’t even be a starter.

Dak has had a much better supporting cast with Dallas than Darnold has had with the Jets.

Dak won't lose you a game, he'll protect the ball, and he won't make mistakes, but he won't win you (many) games either.

 

[Diehardblues]

Dak has had a much better supporting cast with Dallas than Darnold has had with the Jets.

Dak won't lose you a game, he'll protect the ball, and he won't make mistakes, but he won't win you (many) games either.

I’d trade for Darnold straight up.

 

[HungryLion]

Yes but it’s a small percentage . Small enough that it doesn’t deter franchises from continuing going to the well.

I’m not sure why fans focus on the smaller percentage that bust? The only conclusion I can arrive at is spinning it to support a narrative, opinion or defending their guy.

It’s not a small percentage that busts or is never any good. Unless you consider 50% small.

 

[Diehardblues]

It’s not a small percentage that busts or is never any good. Unless you consider 50% small.

That’s not a verifiable percentage.

The 1st and 2nd round continues to be the most reliable place to find the next franchise QB despite whatever percentage of bust or less succesful.

I can’t believe we’re even having this discussion. lol .

 

[garyo1954]

It’s not a small percentage that busts or is never any good. Unless you consider 50% small.

Depends on how you are defining success I guess.

There is an article that shows the first 16 picks since 1990 have an 81% success rate, 17-32 have a 65%, and the second rounders drop to 48%. It goes down from there.

Perhaps the overall success rate is below 50%?

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

 

[HungryLion]

That’s not a verifiable percentage.

The 1st and 2nd round continues to be the most reliable place to find the next franchise QB despite whatever percentage of bust or less succesful.

I can’t believe we’re even having this discussion. lol .

Just look at the list and break it down. Think for yourself rather than have the author of the article spoon feed you.

 

[HungryLion]

Depends on how you are defining success I guess.

There is an article that shows the first 16 picks since 1990 have an 81% success rate, 17-32 have a 65%, and the second rounders drop to 48%. It goes down from there.

Perhaps the overall success rate is below 50%?

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

This is the exact article I was talking to him about. The 81% is way inflated because they define success as starting for 2 years. But just looking at the list you can see plenty of successful QB’s by that metric, that any team would be unhappy if they were the ones drafting them.

That 81% would include guys like Byron Leftwich, Tannehill, Jake Locker, Marcus Mariota, Andre Ware, Jameis Winston, Christian ponder, matt Leinart, etc.


I don’t think any rational
Person would call it a success to draft one



I’m not arguing AGAINST taking a QB in the first round. I’m just stating 81% of QB’s drafted in the first round are NOT good QB’s. The real number is much lower.

If the cowboys do draft a first round QB. I will be hoping they’re the next Mahomes. I’ll probably buy their jersey and I will damn sure watch every single and rooting them on.

I just am realistic about how tough it is for teams to draft good QB’s. There are a bunch of QB’s drafted high that never ever live up to the expectations. Doesn’t mean don’t do it. It just is what it is.

 

[DenCWBY]

The Cowboys are their own worst enemy. They stupidly inflate their own players value with reckless public commentary and completely lack any semblance of transition planning from a very good player by trying to obtain some exit value for that player via a trade.

The Cowboys often pay good players top talent contracts and continuously find themselves with less than starting caliber talent on the depth chart behind them. The top heavy roster is starting to show signs of becoming a problem and the strategy remains the same.

Coach offers a good divergence from the just pay them strategy. Franchise Dak, bring in a quality FA QB who will do a 1 yr deal and draft or sign a developmental QB. Players that want things their way should only be allowed to get their way elsewhere. Zeke and Lawrence are two good examples of players that were overpaid and wanted to do things according their plan. That, so far, has not worked out great for the Cowboys considering what it has cost them.

Desperate teams with a lot of cap space make some highly speculative decisions. Maybe the Cowboys can find another Minnesota out there to help them move a player and get some significant draft capital in exchange.

This. JJ wants to be liked by his players therefore keeps competition off the team which is one of his worst (of many) qualities as a GM. Jimmy kept his players (including his starting QB) on edge and they performed giving him the opportunity to trade those who were still above average for more picks. JJ will never tilt the competitive apple cart and plays his favorites (like Witten who couldn't start for any other team last year). He plays all the players that are highest paid even if they are not performing up to par so he can justify his title. And here we sit hoping McCarthy can overcome this thought process.

 

[Diehardblues]

Just look at the list and break it down. Think for yourself rather than have the author of the article spoon feed you.

I’ve read other articles about how about 70-80% of starting QB’s come from 1st and 2nd rounds.

Determining whether they are good enough for you to decide if they’re good or not isn’t relative.

It’s still the place to look for your franchise QB and why teams continue to reach and give up so much for the opportunity despite the bust or disappointments.

 

[HungryLion]

I’ve read other articles about how about 70-80% of starting QB’s come from 1st and 2nd rounds.

Determining whether there are good enough for you to decide if they’re good or not isn’t relative.

It’s still the place to look for your franchise QB and why teams continue to reach and give up so much for the opportunity.

I was simply arguing that the 81% success rate is not accurate because it defines success as starting for 2 years. That’s all I’ve been arguing. Simply starting for 2 years is a poor definition of what is a successful draft pick at QB. That’s it. That’s the argument.


You’re the one twisting the argument into something else in your mind. Why? I have no idea.

 

[blueblood70]

The stumbling block in getting this QB deal done seems to be the term of the contract and the Cowboys do not want to find themselves back here again in 4 years. Prescott is young enough that he will most likely get another contract and they evidently fear he will improve and deliver and they will be at his mercy and the mercy of a QB league gone wild.

Well, what did SF do when they had Montana, GB when they had Favre, NE when they had Brady and KC with Smith? Got the replacement before they needed him.

This seems very simple to me in this rags to riches to rags league and windows of opportunity. Where was SF in 2018? 4-12, second worst record in the NFC and in 2019? 13-3, best record in the NFC and in the SB. One year, two different teams. Will they be able to hold that team together? Probably not but who cares? They took that one to the Big Dance.

If they're concerned about the solution with the next contract with this QB, don't be, don't even consider another contract with him. They hired a QB oriented HC, make his assignment to find the next franchise QB before this QB's contract expires because he's hitting the bricks before or when it expires. That is his priority #2.

This keeping the family together thinking has no place with successful teams. If the Niners could part with Montana, Rice and Lott and GB with Favre and NE willing to trade Brady, long term thinking has no place in today's NFL. View every player, including the Witten's, as passing through and a hired gun. Every player is expendable and replaceable by the team, not on their own.

Accept that their not going to keep the band together, it's going to be like Poco, not often the same players from album to album but great players along the way.

Now, get this done. Get all of the players either gone and replaced or renewed and the team set for the season. No hold out distractions like they had last year, get the team ready for the season, a season of nothing but the game of football, not the business of football.

There is no team in all of sports with built in opportunities for distractions like the Cowboys. The team was inconsistent last season and underachieved because of distractions. The job of any FO is to limit those, not create them. Get the football team all about football.

nice write up..makes sense except the fact that is when those teams gave up their qbs they already had 1-3 sbs and could afford to let them go.they also had some luck on their side when they drafted the replacements, no guarantee they were going to eb good.. we are not in that postion at this point. OH BTW Dak isnt evn close to one of those guys you mentioned except JimmyG but SF does not have their future qb to replace him, do they> and they paid him what 28mil to rehab last year? this year very inconsistent like Dak ?

Im not sure your wonderful write up applies here because at the moment we have a Dak is not a Montana or Rice or Farve and he wants elite money..this is what he isnt signed..

back to square one but a nice thought..