Long term thinking in a short term game

[HungryLion]

For those who don’t believe the answer for teams next franchise QB is the draft they should take a long look at this:

QB's drafted 1990-2016

1st round 1-16 81%
1st round 17-32 65%
2nd round 48%
3rd round 25%
4th round 13%
5th round 6%
6th round 16%

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

These success rates are meaningless. They are literally only if a first round QB starts for the team for multiple years.

The % of first round QB’s that are any good is far less than 81%

 

[Kwyn]

These success rates are meaningless. They are literally only if a first round QB starts for the team for multiple years.

The % of first round QB’s that are any good is far less than 81%

To read this forum, you can get an elite All-Pro QB in the fourth round of every draft. Hell, from the frequency of pairs here saying “just go get rookie and groom him to be Brady”, there are probably several of those available in every draft!

 

[Diehardblues]

These success rates are meaningless. They are literally only if a first round QB starts for the team for multiple years.

The % of first round QB’s that are any good is far less than 81%

If you become a starter for a NFL team wouldn't that be defined as successful? That was the definition.

But as the writer stated it depends on what you’d call successful. His definition which he even provided some examples that are questionable still fit under his multiple years starting.

Remember this is just an opinion column and not an actual official representation with meaning outside his scope. But I thought it did represent that the answer for starting QB’s is in the draft and really always has been with rare exception.

You’re free to provide your opinion and analysis of compilation as this writer has.

 

[gjkoeppen]

There were some blowout games last year that I thought Dak shouldn't be on the field. If this team was trying to develop a QB they could have definitely gotten that QB some playing time. But Cooper Rush is a career backup and there was no 3rd QB on the 46.

But you are right in saying you just can't keep changing out players like that. And that's why most teams want a franchise QB. Someone that's going to be around for a while. Find a QB stick with him and build around him is most teams game plan.

Since we agree on teams not just playing musical chairs and finding their franchise QB, then I guess I'm confused by this whole QB thing. Since Jerry, Stephen, McCarthy and Nussmeier believe Prescott is the Cowboys franchise QB tell me how many franchise QB's get pulled from games to give backups any meaningful snaps. Ya sometimes the backup gets in to do some victory snaps to run out the clock or if there is a big enough lead to be able to do a 3 and out doing running plays to use up as much clock and leaving the other team with under a minute to make up 14 points, but for the most part those backups sit until or if there is an injury to the franchise QB. Teams hope that the backups progresses enough with the snaps they get in practice. Now you also said "If Dak wants three years now re-signing him would give Dallas two good years to find his replacement." so my question is because the Cowboys believe Prescott is their franchise QB this year and the following two years and you say that gives the Cowboys 2 years to find his replacement and that leaves 1 year for him to sit behind Prescott getting very little or no snaps and then all of a sudden say Prescott is no longer the franchise QB because we drafted is replacement when we believed Prescott was our franchise QB so now we just have to let Prescott go in favor on a QB with very little or no NFL snaps. It would be different if Prescott was going into his like 12th season at at the closer end to his career then what you said make some sense, but when Prescott will be in the prime of his career when this 3 year contract will be up and you say they should have another QB ready to replace their in prime time franchise QB doesn't make good sense. Now all in favor of finding a QB that will be a solid backup if he would ever be needed but to start looking for a replacement now is way premature. n People just have to come to terms with the price of QB rises at a faster rate than any other position and it's part of the game.
.

 

[America's Cowboy]

People did not refer to Mahomes as “another mike white”

Yes, some did. Saying he's a gunslinger from a run-n-shoot type of offense, never played behind Center, can't handle being a pro QB, etc

 

[buybuydandavis]

Well, what did SF do when they had Montana, GB when they had Favre, NE when they had Brady and KC with Smith? Got the replacement before they needed him.

Should have been doing more than picking up a Mike White over 3 drafts.

Dak saved the franchise from oblivion when Tony went down, then retired. Why wasn't that a hint to *keep on investing in QBs*?

Now we're looking at 35-40mil per year for Dak, without options, and without any real attempt to have them.

 

[buybuydandavis]

It should be a 4 year deal for Dak. That is fair to both sides and gives Dak another bite at an even bigger apple when he is 30 and should be in his peak years.

If the Cowboys won’t offer a 4 year deal then Dak should hold out.

Dak didn't hold out making 2mil last year. Why hold out and miss 30mil+ this year? Play another season. All the prices go up. And Dak is heading for free agency again, or a 20% increase to his tag price.

Playing on the tag should be Dak's plan. If Jerry wants something else, let him make a stupid big offer. Time is on Dak's side.

 

[jazzcat22]

If your looking for a way out after 2 years...that means you don't trust the guy in the first place. That means your in the QB market even if you want to admit it or not.

I guess you did not read my entire post or chose to ignore part of it. Like so many do on here all the time.
I also said IF he did not perform....Reading and comprehension is your friend, if you want it to be.

 

[HungryLion]

If you become a starter for a NFL team wouldn't that be defined as successful? That was the definition.

But as the writer stated it depends on what you’d call successful. His definition which he even provided some examples that are questionable still fit under his multiple years starting.

Remember this is just an opinion column and not an actual official representation with meaning outside his scope. But I thought it did represent that the answer for starting QB’s is in the draft and really always has been with rare exception.

You’re free to provide your opinion and analysis of compilation as this writer has.

I did share my opinion. Nowhere close to 81% of QB’s drafted in the top 16 are any good. The number is closer to 50%.

And no, I don’t think starting in the league for a couple of years makes a player successful. A QB who starts for 2 years but sucks is not successful.

QB’s drafted top 10 in the NFL are going to be given every chance to succeed. So it’s no surprise that a high % of top draft picks have multiple years starting. Despite them never becoming a good QB.

If the Cowboys do draft a QB in the first round and he starts for a couple years but ends up not being any good and ends up worse than Dak. Nobody in their right mind would consider that a successful pick.

 

[MaineBoy]

More than 3 teams would easily give Dak 30 million.

Jerry is that you ? You were so right that Garrett would have 5 teams offering him their coaching jobs. Oh, wait...

 

[Diehardblues]

I did share my opinion. Nowhere close to 81% of QB’s drafted in the top 16 are any good. The number is closer to 50%.

And no, I don’t think starting in the league for a couple of years makes a player successful. A QB who starts for 2 years but sucks is not successful.

QB’s drafted top 10 in the NFL are going to be given every chance to succeed. So it’s no surprise that a high % of top draft picks have multiple years starting. Despite them never becoming a good QB.

If the Cowboys do draft a QB in the first round and he starts for a couple years but ends up not being any good and ends up worse than Dak. Nobody in their right mind would consider that a successful pick.

I’d like to see your compilation of QB’s drafted that weren’t successful as this link has provided supporting their percentage instead of just throwing out your 50% without any documentation.

 

[calicowboy54]

I like this guy. I was hoping he'd come out early so we can get him in one of the late rounds. His arm strength and deep ball accuracy in McCarthy's westcoast offense would be something worth seeing.

One of the big problems with Cole is his ability to read a defense and progress from Receiver to Receiver. If MM can teach him that, this kid has all psychical tools to be good... its between his Ears i question.

 

[CouchCoach]

One of the big problems with Cole is his ability to read a defense and progress from Receiver to Receiver. If MM can teach him that, this kid has all psychical tools to be good... its between his Ears i question.

That IS the question about all young QB's. Most are good passers and make some throws better than others but any 1st round QB not named Tebow is a good enough passer.

Decision making is the major separator between those that make it and those that don't. And those decisions have to come a lot faster and the throws in tighter windows than in college.

When I think of impressive passers that never seemed to make it over that hump, I think of Jeff George and Jay Cutler. They did have NFL careers but I would have expected better because there haven't been two stronger arms to play QB. I saw George send the ball at least 50 yards and it didn't get over 10-12' off the ground. They both had rocket arms with accuracy.

Then, on the other side of that you get Bernie Kosar who's mind balanced out his arm and Joe Kapp and Billy Kilmer who both threw the ugliest passes but they had a good mind for the game.

Paxton Lynch's arm was fine, Goff and Wentz didn't have better arms and Lynch actually started out that season ranked ahead of both of them but then the decision making began to show up his last year in college. Prescott's stock dropped his last college year, mainly because D's like AL, AU and LSU came with plans to make him one dimensional and he struggled.

What makes Burrow, Tua and Lawrence special is their decision making ability. In that championship game, it wasn't Lawrence's mind that failed him, it was his arm, he knew where he needed to go and couldn't get it there accurately. Burrow's decision making was uncanny in his last season. However, the choices he had were special, his WR corps was rated the highest in the FBS as was his OL.

 

[Kwyn]

That IS the question about all young QB's. Most are good passers and make some throws better than others but any 1st round QB not named Tebow is a good enough passer.

Decision making is the major separator between those that make it and those that don't. And those decisions have to come a lot faster and the throws in tighter windows than in college.

When I think of impressive passers that never seemed to make it over that hump, I think of Jeff George and Jay Cutler. They did have NFL careers but I would have expected better because there haven't been two stronger arms to play QB. I saw George send the ball at least 50 yards and it didn't get over 10-12' off the ground. They both had rocket arms with accuracy.

Then, on the other side of that you get Bernie Kosar who's mind balanced out his arm and Joe Kapp and Billy Kilmer who both threw the ugliest passes but they had a good mind for the game.

Paxton Lynch's arm was fine, Goff and Wentz didn't have better arms and Lynch actually started out that season ranked ahead of both of them but then the decision making began to show up his last year in college. Prescott's stock dropped his last college year, mainly because D's like AL, AU and LSU came with plans to make him one dimensional and he struggled.

What makes Burrow, Tua and Lawrence special is their decision making ability. In that championship game, it wasn't Lawrence's mind that failed him, it was his arm, he knew where he needed to go and couldn't get it there accurately. Burrow's decision making was uncanny in his last season. However, the choices he had were special, his WR corps was rated the highest in the FBS as was his OL.

Ooh ooh ooh! I’ve got one!

Todd Marinovich! The Robo-QB

An absolute prototype when it came to paper and drills but drugs and knuckleheadedness doomed him.

 

[calicowboy54]

That IS the question about all young QB's. Most are good passers and make some throws better than others but any 1st round QB not named Tebow is a good enough passer.

Decision making is the major separator between those that make it and those that don't. And those decisions have to come a lot faster and the throws in tighter windows than in college.

When I think of impressive passers that never seemed to make it over that hump, I think of Jeff George and Jay Cutler. They did have NFL careers but I would have expected better because there haven't been two stronger arms to play QB. I saw George send the ball at least 50 yards and it didn't get over 10-12' off the ground. They both had rocket arms with accuracy.

Then, on the other side of that you get Bernie Kosar who's mind balanced out his arm and Joe Kapp and Billy Kilmer who both threw the ugliest passes but they had a good mind for the game.

Paxton Lynch's arm was fine, Goff and Wentz didn't have better arms and Lynch actually started out that season ranked ahead of both of them but then the decision making began to show up his last year in college. Prescott's stock dropped his last college year, mainly because D's like AL, AU and LSU came with plans to make him one dimensional and he struggled.

What makes Burrow, Tua and Lawrence special is their decision making ability. In that championship game, it wasn't Lawrence's mind that failed him, it was his arm, he knew where he needed to go and couldn't get it there accurately. Burrow's decision making was uncanny in his last season. However, the choices he had were special, his WR corps was rated the highest in the FBS as was his OL.

Right i agree if im drafting a prospect in 1 - 3 round he needs to have the following

1. ability to dissect a game
2. accuracy
3. footwork/ Arm Strength

for Development guys later than 4th round i look for Psychical tools and they better be Game Junkies:
1. Accuracy
2. footwook / arm Strength
3. reading defenses

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

The stumbling block in getting this QB deal done seems to be the term of the contract and the Cowboys do not want to find themselves back here again in 4 years. Prescott is young enough that he will most likely get another contract and they evidently fear he will improve and deliver and they will be at his mercy and the mercy of a QB league gone wild.

Well, what did SF do when they had Montana, GB when they had Favre, NE when they had Brady and KC with Smith? Got the replacement before they needed him.

This seems very simple to me in this rags to riches to rags league and windows of opportunity. Where was SF in 2018? 4-12, second worst record in the NFC and in 2019? 13-3, best record in the NFC and in the SB. One year, two different teams. Will they be able to hold that team together? Probably not but who cares? They took that one to the Big Dance.

If they're concerned about the solution with the next contract with this QB, don't be, don't even consider another contract with him. They hired a QB oriented HC, make his assignment to find the next franchise QB before this QB's contract expires because he's hitting the bricks before or when it expires. That is his priority #2.

This keeping the family together thinking has no place with successful teams. If the Niners could part with Montana, Rice and Lott and GB with Favre and NE willing to trade Brady, long term thinking has no place in today's NFL. View every player, including the Witten's, as passing through and a hired gun. Every player is expendable and replaceable by the team, not on their own.

Accept that their not going to keep the band together, it's going to be like Poco, not often the same players from album to album but great players along the way.

Now, get this done. Get all of the players either gone and replaced or renewed and the team set for the season. No hold out distractions like they had last year, get the team ready for the season, a season of nothing but the game of football, not the business of football.

There is no team in all of sports with built in opportunities for distractions like the Cowboys. The team was inconsistent last season and underachieved because of distractions. The job of any FO is to limit those, not create them. Get the football team all about football.

I think we may find that you lost the majority of audiance with "Poco" Coach.

 

[HungryLion]

I’d like to see your compilation of QB’s drafted that weren’t successful as this link has provided supporting their percentage instead of just throwing out your 50% without any documentation.

I have posted it numerous times on this forum.

The article itself said that starting a couple years is what they deem successful. I just stated why I think saying starting for a couple years is “successful” is a joke. Starting for a coupe years and NOT being a good player, doesn’t shout “success” to me.


I’m not throwing out 50% without any documentation. I posted a thread about it a while back.


Unless of course you think the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Byron Leftwich, Mark Sanchez, Heath shuler, etc would
All be a good pick with the cowboys first rounder.


Just look at the list in the link and you’ll see a treasure trove of quarterbacks who sucked in the NFL.

 

[Diehardblues]

I have posted it numerous times on this forum.

The article itself said that starting a couple years is what they deem successful. I just stated why I think saying starting for a couple years is “successful” is a joke.


I’m not throwing out 50% without any documentation. I posted a thread about it a while back.


Unless of course you think the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Byron Leftwich, Mark Sanchez, Heath shuler, etc would
All be a good pick with the cowboys first rounder.


Just look at the list in the link and you’ll see a treasure trove of quarterbacks who sucked in the NFL.

Using the 19% of QB drafted who aren’t as successful is spinning the stats to support a negative narrative discrediting where most of the better franchise QB’s are drafted.

 

[Diehardblues]

That IS the question about all young QB's. Most are good passers and make some throws better than others but any 1st round QB not named Tebow is a good enough passer.

Decision making is the major separator between those that make it and those that don't. And those decisions have to come a lot faster and the throws in tighter windows than in college.

When I think of impressive passers that never seemed to make it over that hump, I think of Jeff George and Jay Cutler. They did have NFL careers but I would have expected better because there haven't been two stronger arms to play QB. I saw George send the ball at least 50 yards and it didn't get over 10-12' off the ground. They both had rocket arms with accuracy.

Then, on the other side of that you get Bernie Kosar who's mind balanced out his arm and Joe Kapp and Billy Kilmer who both threw the ugliest passes but they had a good mind for the game.

Paxton Lynch's arm was fine, Goff and Wentz didn't have better arms and Lynch actually started out that season ranked ahead of both of them but then the decision making began to show up his last year in college. Prescott's stock dropped his last college year, mainly because D's like AL, AU and LSU came with plans to make him one dimensional and he struggled.

What makes Burrow, Tua and Lawrence special is their decision making ability. In that championship game, it wasn't Lawrence's mind that failed him, it was his arm, he knew where he needed to go and couldn't get it there accurately. Burrow's decision making was uncanny in his last season. However, the choices he had were special, his WR corps was rated the highest in the FBS as was his OL.

Fans often want to use the exception of failed QB’s in the 1st round instead of the more common success.

I don’t have the link handy but I read it last year I believe where about 80% of the starting QB’s in NFL come out of the 1st and 2nd rounds. So, whatever bust there are it’s still the place to look for your next QB.

 

[Diehardblues]

Cowboys have had pretty good success in those rounds over the years on QB’s with Morton, White and Aikman. With Quincy the only failure which he actually started a couple seasons going 18-16 with a playoff appearance.

Even our 1st round supplemental pick of Walsh netted us 3 draft picks including a 1st and 3rd which delivered two key pieces in 90’s dynasty.

I think we could present a strong argument the1st round is the place for us to look. As it is for most teams.