Looks Like We Have 10 Roster Spots to Fill

[jazzcat22]

You think the team is going to spend any more serious money.
No way.
They are squeezing the money from the cap and hiding it from the fans.

The team claims poverty and good financial planning.
The free agent market is overpriced...

The team is stressing value, but what they mean is profits.
They say long term, but what they mean is hiding profits long term.
Of course, fans would be angry if they see $100 million of cap unused.
How are they going to hide that from the fans?
It is quite simple - in the name of long term stability.

The team has been restructuring about 20-30 million dollars per year.
By systematically turning off the restructuring, you can hide about 50 million profits from the fans.
In fact, they can make their cap space look tight with this mirage in 2018,
in 2019, the savings are so huge (67million) that 32 million still shows.
in 2020, the savings are even large (92 million) that 47 million still shows.
how to hide that, they can change the standard contracting structure - essentially front loading contracts.
the drop in profits in 2021 is from the massive contracts given to resigning the class of 2016 - takes an extra year or 2 for massive cap hit to show up. actually after 2020, the model is not even relevant as there will be a new TV contract.

With the traditional 20 million of restructuring:
2017----- 2018----- 2019----- 2020----- 2021
$ 3.20---$ 28.66---$ 67.91--$ 92.72---$ 72.23

To hide the profits from the fans, with 20 million of restructuring turned off:
2017----- 2018----- 2019----- 2020----- 2021
$ 3.20---$ 8.66-----$ 32.91---$ 47.72--$ 22.23

These calculations have assumed:
1. continue to sign 3 free agents per year - 1 at 2m aav, 1 at 3m aav, 1 at 4m aav
2. resigning own free agents - martin, collins, jones and most of the class of 2016 as good starters or stars, resigning class of 2017 as decent starters (assuming draft results are not as good)

For those who want to question the financial model, I would be happy to email the model to you.
A more detailed report of the model will be posted on BTB.

What do you not get...there is no hiding money on the cap. If he wants to hide personal money from profits, that is his own dang business.
But the cap is open for all to see. If the NFL seen hidden money, if there is such a thing. You be sure to know, that Kraft, Mara, Rooney goons would be all over it whining to Goodell.

 

[big dog cowboy]

But letting the best of a poor defensive back field, without a plan to replace them with better players

According to who?

You actually think the plan was to sit around and watch those guys leave and then say now what?

 

[Alexander]

Marrinelli is a great coach, but not a miracle worker

Apparently we believe he is. He has done such a fine job of tuning up the "rushmen", we now get to see him work his magic with players like Nolan Carroll.

Prepare to be dazzled.

 

[dallasfan4lizife]

If only we could go into the season with 22 players on the roster. That way Stephen can really save some money!!!

 

[waldoputty]

What do you not get...there is no hiding money on the cap. If he wants to hide personal money from profits, that is his own dang business.
But the cap is open for all to see. If the NFL seen hidden money, if there is such a thing. You be sure to know, that Kraft, Mara, Rooney goons would be all over it whining to Goodell.

no that is not i am saying - not hiding his personal money.
hiding the money in the cap is simple.

the team has been working from credit for the 20 years.
about 20-30 million is roughly extracted every year in the last few years.
so everything is fine as long as you dont disturb that.

well, what are they doing.
they appear to be systematically turning that off.
what really happens - when you go cold turkey, you squeeze the budget for 1-2 years.
if the team is horrible, fine, no problem.
when the team is 13-3, it is plain stupid.

by doing this for a few years, the savings are absorbed into the team's cap system.
not many people notice unless you literally start messing around with their dollars in a spreadsheet.
then you see how the money flows.
doing it this way allows Stephen to stash the money with 99.99% of the people not know.
fans would be pissed if they saw tens of millions of available $ and the team not using it to retain players or sign similar or better players.

 

[Rogerthat12]

 

[Alexander]

According to who?

You actually think the plan was to sit around and watch those guys leave and then say now what?

So what was the plan?

There is a lot more evidence from the get-go that yes, they were going to wait out free agency by design. Came right from Stephen Jones' mouth.

And here we are. Banking on a home run draft.

Wait, is this one of those gosh darn our bad luck things again?

 

[Mr Cowboy]

According to who?

You actually think the plan was to sit around and watch those guys leave and then say now what?

Are you saying the Woodson's, in their prime are walking thru the door soon?

 

[JoeKing]

No doubt the secondary was bad, but so was the pass rush, and it has been for the past 5 years. But letting the best of a poor defensive back field, without a plan to replace them with better players is not exactly blowing up the bad defense. Spin it however you want, but talent is the main ingredient in building a team, and the little to bad talent we had is gone and replaced by worse talent. You're not going to get 7 walk in starters on defense in the draft.

Jerry and company has always had the problem of not being able to build a complete team, this will be another one of those teams. From having 7 1st round picks on defense, while playing OL who didn't even start on their college team, to having 5 1st round picks on offense with Home Depot day laborers manning the defense. Marrinelli is a great coach, but not a miracle worker.

But for the 5th + year feel good about the Cowboys mantra of "you can't build a defense in one off season!"

No plan? Who's spinning this situation now? We are just 8 days into FA and you're words would have us believe the sky is falling. Have some patience and let the FO do it's job. Anticipating decline seems premature at this point.

 

[tyke1doe]

You've got 2 Escobars in your list. Did you mean to include someone else?

He's so easy to forget you have to add him twice.

 

[jterrell]

It's ok the extra 5th round comp picks will net us some starters!

an extra 4th comp gave us a franchise QB so it seems an odd time to be on this shtick.

 

[superjoe]

So what was the plan?

There is a lot more evidence from the get-go that yes, they were going to wait out free agency by design. Came right from Stephen Jones' mouth.

And here we are. Banking on a home run draft.

Wait, is this one of those gosh darn our bad luck things again?

That's quite a bit of churn...my worry is that about 4 or 5 where our starters so improving there is the key, a push at those positions wont get us over the competitive hump with the rest of the NFC.

I think the plan was always to go cheep or prove-it deals in free agency and build through the draft...only thing with that approach is that they will need to have a pretty darn high rate of success in all round of the draft to round out a competitive team, especially on defense...we will see.

 

[Sydla]

According to who?

You actually think the plan was to sit around and watch those guys leave and then say now what?

I think their plan was to sign a cheap CB in FA and hope he's not as bad as he was last year and then believe they can fix the serious secondary issues they have in the draft immediately.

That's a very risky strategy that easily could result in an awful defense that is a reason you fail to make the playoffs in 2017.

I don't think some of you realize just how shoddy this defense is on paper right now. And if you say just wait until the draft to reach a conclusion, that's proving the point. If the draft is what's being counted on to make an immediate improvement to this defense, that's a very risky strategy for a team that was a few plays from a NFC Title game appearance.

 

[Sydla]

an extra 4th comp gave us a franchise QB so it seems an odd time to be on this shtick.

He's right. Counting on 4th and 5th round picks to be impact players immediately is very risky. Just because we hit with Prescott doesn't mean we can continually think it's going to turn out the way we want it for late round picks.

This offseason strategy is bizarre.

 

[waldoputty]

I think their plan was to sign a cheap CB in FA and hope he's not as bad as he was last year and then believe they can fix the serious secondary issues they have in the draft immediately.

That's a very risky strategy that easily could result in an awful defense that is a reason you fail to make the playoffs in 2017.

I don't think some of you realize just how shoddy this defense is on paper right now. And if you say just wait until the draft to reach a conclusion, that's proving the point. If the draft is what's being counted on to make an immediate improvement to this defense, that's a very risky strategy for a team that was a few plays from a NFC Title game appearance.

it is much better to miss the playoffs than the go 1-and-out.
at least we will have a better draft after 2017.
the problem is the offense is too good to miss the playoffs.

 

[DandyDon52]

No doubt the secondary was bad, but so was the pass rush, and it has been for the past 5 years. But letting the best of a poor defensive back field, without a plan to replace them with better players is not exactly blowing up the bad defense. Spin it however you want, but talent is the main ingredient in building a team, and the little to bad talent we had is gone and replaced by worse talent. You're not going to get 7 walk in starters on defense in the draft.

Jerry and company has always had the problem of not being able to build a complete team, this will be another one of those teams. From having 7 1st round picks on defense, while playing OL who didn't even start on their college team, to having 5 1st round picks on offense with Home Depot day laborers manning the defense. Marrinelli is a great coach, but not a miracle worker.

But for the 5th + year feel good about the Cowboys mantra of "you can't build a defense in one off season!"

good post, makes some new points no one is talking about.
your right, they build part of a team, but never a complete team.
I think they never put much into defense, they focus on offense always.

If they go Offense on round 1 and 2 this year people will freak out.

 

[Alexander]

I don't think some of you realize just how shoddy this defense is on paper right now. And if you say just wait until the draft to reach a conclusion, that's proving the point. If the draft is what's being counted on to make an immediate improvement to this defense, that's a very risky strategy for a team that was a few plays from a NFC Title game appearance.

If they were honest, they would. But pretending for a Jaylon/Tapper world domination tour and a home run draft keeps some people in their safe place.

 

[Alexander]

good post, makes some new points no one is talking about.
your right, they build part of a team, but never a complete team.

Plug the fingers in the holes, ignore the cracks appearing elsewhere.

 

[DandyDon52]

it is much better to miss the playoffs than the go 1-and-out.
at least we will have a better draft after 2017.
the problem is the offense is too good to miss the playoffs.

yeah if your gonna tank go for the first pick, with 0-16 lol.
But with dak and EE it will be hard to go below 8-8.

 

[jterrell]

He's right. Counting on 4th and 5th round picks to be impact players immediately is very risky. Just because we hit with Prescott doesn't mean we can continually think it's going to turn out the way we want it for late round picks.

This offseason strategy is bizarre.

not arguing that and let first posting of the whine pass buttttt... after a second reading in less than 5 mins.....
it is march. no games for months.
roster will change quite a bit.
how much for the better is debatable.