Maso's WR Rankings

[smarta5150]

I really don't understand what you mean with this statement.

He thought he was better but when he plugged whatever into whatever the formula is it didnt come out so great.

I am assuming.

 

[Big Dakota]

Thanks for the effort. Sorry you wasted your time.

 

[masomenos]

I really don't understand what you mean with this statement.

Yeah before I started working on the formula I got interested in him just from reading the prospect profiles and seeing some stuff about him on the NFL Network.

 

[Iago33]

The list is really kind of useless at this point without any indication of how you arrived at these rankings. The only point is to look back and see if you were right or wrong.

You don't want to divulge your formula? OK, that's fine. Can you tell us what categories you used, at least?

 

[dalboy]

Who is this guy?

 

[DasTex]

Unlike most posting on here...I don't think it's too bad. I'd probably move Anthony Gonzalez and Meachem up a space, but overall not too shabby.

Some of you guys need to realize this isn't a mock...it's a opinion on what type of WR they will end up being down the road.

 

[TheBeheader31]

Here are my WR Rankings, as promised (well promised to one person lol). It's not something that predicts where a WR will be chosen, but rather where they deserve to go, based on how their skills project to the NFL. No, the system isn't perfect but by going back and seeing where players like Marques Colston (early-mid second), Mike Williams (6th round) and Patrick Crayton (third) (among others) would have projected has helped me check the validity of the system. This is the first year it will be used on an incoming draft class though and there are going to be a lot of things people don't agree with I imagine.

-Top 5 Pick-Player of Rare Ability
1. Calvin Johnson - 4.9

-Early to Mid First-Pro Bowl Potential
2. Steve Smith - 4.4
3. Dwayne Bowe - 4.2

-Mid to Late First- Very Good Player
none

-Early to Mid Second - Good Player
4. Johnnie Lee Higgins - 3.4

-Mid to Late Second - Above Average Player
5. Anthony Gonzalez - 2.7
6. Ted Ginn Jr - 2.6

-Third Round - Average Player
7. Chris Davis - 2.4
8. Robert Meachem -2.4
9. Laurent Robinson - 2.3
10. Aundrae Allison - 2.1
11. Dallas Baker - 2.0

-Fourth to Fifth - Slightly Below Average Player
none

-Fifth through Sixth - Below Average Player
12. Dwayne Jarrett - 1.2
13. Dave Ball - 1.2
14. Jason Hill - 1.0

-Seventh and UFA - Bottom of Roster
15. Sidney Rice - 0.9
16. Ryne Robinson - 0.5
17. Steve Breaston - 0.5
18. Aaron Fairooz - -0.1
19. Mike Walker - -0.4
20. Chauncey Stuckey - -1.7

So there you go. I haven't been able to do it for every WR prospect in the draft and I haven't been able to find information on Craig Davis from LSU so that's why he's absent from the list. Also Ted Ginn's score hinges on how well he runs on the 12th and right now is just an estimated position.

So three sleepers for this year are Chris Davis, Laurent Robinson and Dallas Baker. Three overrated players are Dwayne Jarrett, Sidney Rice and Jason Hill.

I know it's unpopular to only have a couple guys worthy of first round picks but that's how it works.

Yikes, we'll see how this goes.

Dude...please explain how you have Sidney Rice as a bottom of the roster player. How'd you come to that conclusion?

 

[masomenos]

please explain how you have Sidney Rice as a bottom of the roster player. How'd you come to that conclusion?

To keep things short it's the same reason I have Dwayne Jarrett so low, neither play shows great explosiveness and that should raise concerns about their ability to separate from coverage in the NFL. I do allow a little mobility on the chart, say one category up or down, and he is right on the verge of being "below average" but I'd say expecting him to be any sort of star in the league will only lead to disappointment.

 

[cowboyz]

Thanks for posting, how does jacoby jones rank?

 

[Vintage]

Very interesting.

I'd like to see how you came up with this. Not to criticize or anything, just of curiosity.

 

[TheBeheader31]

To keep things short it's the same reason I have Dwayne Jarrett so low, neither play shows great explosiveness and that should raise concerns about their ability to separate from coverage in the NFL. I do allow a little mobility on the chart, say one category up or down, and he is right on the verge of being "below average" but I'd say expecting him to be any sort of star in the league will only lead to disappointment.

Sorry man...I'm not buying it. I think your putting way too much stock in his 40 time.

Official Bio

Strengths:
Has excellent size with long arms and a rangy frame...Outstanding ball skills...A smooth natural athlete...Excellent leaper who high points the ball...Has big, soft, and very reliable hands...Terrific body control...Plays faster than he times...Tracks the ball well and has great hand / eye coordination...A terror in the red zone...Will make the spectacular catch...Able to separate and is a great vertical threat...Was extremely productive and pretty dominant in the SEC...Still has a ton of potential.

Weaknesses:
Doesn't have a lot of experience...Still very raw and needs to work on mastering the nuances of the position...Timed speed is only average...Needs to get stronger and could stand to add some weight...Has to refine his route running...Does not provide much after the catch...Is not real explosive and lacks a burst...Has some durability concerns and battled a number of minor injuries throughout his career.

Notes:
Was also a very good basketball player in high school...Redshirt sophomore who was able to declare for the draft because it had been three years since his high school class graduated...The key word is upside and had he gone back to school for one more year he might have been a Top 5-10 overall pick in 2008...A bit of a project who teams will have to be patient with and develop but he certainly has #1 wideout potential at the next level and could ultimately end up being a steal.



I bolded the part about him being a very good basketball player because basketball requires explosivenes, whether it be driving past a defender of dunking on someone. And even if for some reason he has trouble creating seperation from DB's (which he won't), he's still going to be able to outjump them. Sidney Rice = Larry Fitzgerald

 

[peplaw06]

To keep things short it's the same reason I have Dwayne Jarrett so low, neither play shows great explosiveness and that should raise concerns about their ability to separate from coverage in the NFL. I do allow a little mobility on the chart, say one category up or down, and he is right on the verge of being "below average" but I'd say expecting him to be any sort of star in the league will only lead to disappointment.

Well can you at least give some camparison for reference?

I understand not wanting to divulge your formula to a point. But is this the first group of WRs you've used this formula for? Have you rated past WRs before they were drafted? How did those pan out?

How did a guy like Marques Colston rate for example? Without a point of reference or a formula, all I can say is it's interesting, but ultimately I won't give it any weight or credence whatsoever because it could just as easily be arbitrary.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I think it's a pretty interesting post. And actually I agree with quite a few of your rankings.

 

[masomenos]

Sorry man...I'm not buying it. I think your putting way too much stock in his 40 time.

I bolded the part about him being a very good basketball player because basketball requires explosivenes, whether it be driving past a defender of dunking on someone. And even if for some reason he has trouble creating seperation from DB's (which he won't), he's still going to be able to outjump them. Sidney Rice = Larry Fitzgerald

Actually Im not basing that comment on his 40 time at all, Im basing it on his cone drill time. He does show good acceleration of of the line but he doesn't show suddenness out of his cuts. And separation is far more important than leaping ability.

 

[superpunk]

Well can you at least give some camparison for reference?

I understand not wanting to divulge your formula to a point. But is this the first group of WRs you've used this formula for? Have you rated past WRs before they were drafted? How did those pan out?

How did a guy like Marques Colston rate for example? Without a point of reference or a formula, all I can say is it's interesting, but ultimately I won't give it any weight or credence whatsoever because it could just as easily be arbitrary.

This is a solid question.

 

[masomenos]

Well can you at least give some camparison for reference?

I understand not wanting to divulge your formula to a point. But is this the first group of WRs you've used this formula for? Have you rated past WRs before they were drafted? How did those pan out?

How did a guy like Marques Colston rate for example? Without a point of reference or a formula, all I can say is it's interesting, but ultimately I won't give it any weight or credence whatsoever because it could just as easily be arbitrary.

Yeah I can give some comparisons for reference. And to answer your questions, yes this is the first full group of WRs I've used it for. I have gone back and taken a few cases from the past to see if the formula was credible though. I've done Mike Williams who graded out a little bit lower than Dwayne Jarrett which puts him as a "Below Average Player". I've graded Patrick Crayton who graded at right around 2.1 and projected as an "Average" player worthy of a 3rd round pick. I graded Marques Colston who scored a 3.2 worthy of an early-mid second. And I graded Skyler green who scored in the negatives. Sadly it's not easy to find all the information I need for past players.

I know it's hard to take the post very seriously without knowing how the formula works or anything, but I have done my best to cross reference it using players from the past. If you have any more questions or want something different in terms of a comparison then just let me know.

 

[masomenos]

Thanks for posting, how does jacoby jones rank?

I'll check for you, give me about 30 minutes and I should know.

 

[dogberry]

Does Adam give out his workpapers, if not why should anyone?

Maso has given alot of clues, we should figure it out on our own.

 

[masomenos]

Jacoby Jones doesn't rate too highly, right around the Sidney Rice and Jason Hill range. Grades as a late round pick with a score of about 1.0

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Does Adam give out his workpapers, if not why should anyone?

Maso has given alot of clues, we should figure it out on our own.

Very good point.