Maso's WR Rankings

[masomenos]

Actually, I have a correction to make. The rating for Colston that I've been saying was from the original formula. He grades out a little lower in the current formula with a rating of around 2.5, or a mid-late 2nd round pick.

 

[burmafrd]

For the past year so many were claiming that this draft would be a great one for WRs. I just do not see it. Johnson towers in all ways over everyone else; there are a couple of guys who look good; and then several who might be good and might bomb; and several like Jarrett whom I think has bust written all over him AND tattooed on his forehead.

 

[jobberone]

Very interesting. It's a great post IMO. It's stimulating a good bit of interest. It'd love to see this list again in three or four years.

 

[masomenos]

For the past year so many were claiming that this draft would be a great one for WRs. I just do not see it. Johnson towers in all ways over everyone else; there are a couple of guys who look good; and then several who might be good and might bomb; and several like Jarrett whom I think has bust written all over him AND tattooed on his forehead.

Obviously I'm inclined to agree with you, a couple people who could impress but on a whole just a bunch of average players and some (like you said Jarrett) who are entirely overrated.

 

[superpunk]

Does Adam give out his workpapers, if not why should anyone?

Maso has given alot of clues, we should figure it out on our own.

Adam has a history.

I know masomenos from another forum, but he's got 50 posts on here and we don't have a WR ranking from last year to determine whether the formula is worth a darn.

These are intriguing rankings, but people will wonder how exactly you came to a conclusion before putting any stock into it.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I'd like to see your rating of WR's from older years like 2000-2003 so we can have some point of reference to their success or failure in the NFL compared to your ranking.

 

[ThreeSportStar80]

Is he serious with Meachem below Gonzalez and Ginn Jr.??? LMAO! Now that's funny!

 

[masomenos]

Adam has a history.

I know masomenos from another forum, but he's got 50 posts on here and we don't have a WR ranking from last year to determine whether the formula is worth a darn.

These are intriguing rankings, but people will wonder how exactly you came to a conclusion before putting any stock into it.

Yeah, and I understand that. Ultimately the only way to judge them is a few years down the road and at that point Im sure I'll be the only one who cares about them then. It's really no bother to me that a lot of people think the rankings are foolish, I mainly do them just cause I find the draft fascinating and creating the system is, in its own way, intellectually stimulating. I enjoy it. So, when someone tells me something like "Sorry, you wasted your time" I take it with a grain of salt.

I mean it's something I've spent quite a while on, and I may very well end up being proven wrong, but I still did enjoy the process and I wouldn't have released them unless I thought they were somewhat "good" (for some reason "good" is the only word I can think of right now that fits, see why I need the intellectual stimulation? haha). I am somewhat happy with the amount up interest the thread has turned up though and I think it's a good sign that not everyone on the forum immediately writes me off as a crackpot.

Oh, and I didn't make the connection with the name...good seeing you over here lol.

 

[smarta5150]

I am somewhat happy with the amount up interest the thread has turned up though and I think it's a good sign that not everyone on the forum immediately writes me off as a crackpot.

See, good thing I challenged you

 

[masomenos]

Is he serious with Meachem below Gonzalez and Ginn Jr.??? LMAO! Now that's funny!

Biggest question with Meachem is his suddenness in and out of his breaks. Now in all fairness, like I said there is a degree of mobility and he could be in the same bracket as Ginn and Gonzalez but no I don't think he's the great prospect everyone else does. And while my system doesn't take this into account it is worth nothing that he only had one major productive year at Tennessee and there's potential that he was just a "flash in the pan" type player. Meachem also only has average burst off of the line. I think there may be more questions about him than a lot of people think.

 

[masomenos]

See, good thing I challenged you

lol, indeed, and to think we got off an such a bad foot

edit: oh and I meant to ask, what'd you think of the formula itself? like I said, it's not perfect by any means, anything that you think may need more or less of a consideration?

 

[smarta5150]

lol, indeed, and to think we got off an such a bad foot

edit: oh and I meant to ask, what'd you think of the formula itself? like I said, it's not perfect by any means, anything that you think may need more or less of a consideration?

I usually have my one touchy feeling for the month... sort of like a flavor of the week.

And lately it has been dealing with our FS spot.

So thats why I laughed at you and your Griffin talks

As for the formula I will look it over more tomorrow... I gotta run out in a few.

 

[masomenos]

I'd like to see your rating of WR's from older years like 2000-2003 so we can have some point of reference to their success or failure in the NFL compared to your ranking.

Ya know, I really don't have enough back information to give a definitive reference point. If anyone can help me out with a list of combine info and pro day info from those years then I can do a comprehensive reference like a lot of people are asking for, but without that information it's really tough for me to do. Without the information all I could do is speculate on cone drill times and stuff. Really though, I'd like to have a reference like that as much as anyone, it would help me cross check the ratings system.

 

[Dday22t]

He doesn't need to explain the formula, if you think about half the WRs drafted are going to be disappointments so his list isn't a stretch. If there are 5-6 WRs drafted in the 1st rd this year 2-3 of them are going to average to below average starters at best.

 

[jobberone]

Is he serious with Meachem below Gonzalez and Ginn Jr.??? LMAO! Now that's funny!

He's giving you the results he got knowing he'd get some ridicule. It's just a tool and I don't think he or many others are taking it as gospel.

 

[Danny White]

Sorry for dismissing this initially; right or wrong, you clearly put more thought into this than many have given you credit.

So clearly, you think Steve Smith will be a value pick whenever he goes in rounds 2-4.

Why do you think so highly of him?

 

[adamknite]

Here are my WR Rankings, as promised (well promised to one person lol). It's not something that predicts where a WR will be chosen, but rather where they deserve to go, based on how their skills project to the NFL. No, the system isn't perfect but by going back and seeing where players like Marques Colston (early-mid second), Mike Williams (6th round) and Patrick Crayton (third) (among others) would have projected has helped me check the validity of the system. This is the first year it will be used on an incoming draft class though and there are going to be a lot of things people don't agree with I imagine.

-Top 5 Pick-Player of Rare Ability
1. Calvin Johnson - 4.9

-Early to Mid First-Pro Bowl Potential
2. Steve Smith - 4.4
3. Dwayne Bowe - 4.2

-Mid to Late First- Very Good Player
none

-Early to Mid Second - Good Player
4. Johnnie Lee Higgins - 3.4

-Mid to Late Second - Above Average Player
5. Anthony Gonzalez - 2.7
6. Ted Ginn Jr - 2.6

-Third Round - Average Player
7. Chris Davis - 2.4
8. Robert Meachem -2.4
9. Laurent Robinson - 2.3
10. Aundrae Allison - 2.1
11. Dallas Baker - 2.0

-Fourth to Fifth - Slightly Below Average Player
none

-Fifth through Sixth - Below Average Player
12. Dwayne Jarrett - 1.2
13. Dave Ball - 1.2
14. Jason Hill - 1.0

-Seventh and UFA - Bottom of Roster
15. Sidney Rice - 0.9
16. Ryne Robinson - 0.5
17. Steve Breaston - 0.5
18. Aaron Fairooz - -0.1
19. Mike Walker - -0.4
20. Chauncey Stuckey - -1.7

So there you go. I haven't been able to do it for every WR prospect in the draft and I haven't been able to find information on Craig Davis from LSU so that's why he's absent from the list. Also Ted Ginn's score hinges on how well he runs on the 12th and right now is just an estimated position.

So three sleepers for this year are Chris Davis, Laurent Robinson and Dallas Baker. Three overrated players are Dwayne Jarrett, Sidney Rice and Jason Hill.

I know it's unpopular to only have a couple guys worthy of first round picks but that's how it works.

Yikes, we'll see how this goes.

at first I was going to say you're blody nuts, then I noticed you mentioned using some kinda formula, so very interesting, nice post.

 

[peplaw06]

Biggest question with Meachem is his suddenness in and out of his breaks. Now in all fairness, like I said there is a degree of mobility and he could be in the same bracket as Ginn and Gonzalez but no I don't think he's the great prospect everyone else does. And while my system doesn't take this into account it is worth nothing that he only had one major productive year at Tennessee and there's potential that he was just a "flash in the pan" type player. Meachem also only has average burst off of the line. I think there may be more questions about him than a lot of people think.

Alright, I'm gonna have to ask you to send me your formula if you don't mind. I assumed things were taken into account with numbers (i.e. 40 times, cone drill times, etc.), but now you mention things like "suddenness in and out of breaks," and I'm wondering how you come up with a numerical value for things like that, hands, route running, etc.

Just to make sure you are aware, there's been some heated debate to say the least about evaluation of WRs in the past week, that's why your thread has drawn so much interest. Most of the attention in those threads has been on the subjective nature of WR evaluation. Things like hands, willingness to go over the middle, and the like are just things that are hard to evaluate until you see someone in live action against NFL talent. So I guess I'm interested in what part those things played into your evals.

PS. Forgive me for being skeptical... but I AM glad you at least think a few WRs are worth a first round pick and it's not "a horrible idea" to pick one in that round.

 

[masomenos]

Sorry for dismissing this initially; right or wrong, you clearly put more thought into this than many have given you credit.

So clearly, you think Steve Smith will be a value pick whenever he goes in rounds 2-4.

Why do you think so highly of him?

Really, no need for apologies, thanks for giving it a second look though.

I do feel Steve Smith will be a value pick though wherever he's taken though, you're right. I think Smith has so much potential because he's a very quick player who really shows good explosion out of his cuts, it gives him the ability to be a terrific route runner. I also think he answered some questions by running a 4.44, although I don't put too much stock in 40 times. He's a player who's been productive and who, in my system, has the third highest "explosiveness rating" of any WR (behind Johnson and Ginn). There have never really been any questions about his hands and I really think he's just been overshadowed by guys like Jarrett and Mike Williams.

 

[masomenos]

Alright, I'm gonna have to ask you to send me your formula if you don't mind. I assumed things were taken into account with numbers (i.e. 40 times, cone drill times, etc.), but now you mention things like "suddenness in and out of breaks," and I'm wondering how you come up with a numerical value for things like that, hands, route running, etc.

Just to make sure you are aware, there's been some heated debate to say the least about evaluation of WRs in the past week, that's why your thread has drawn so much interest. Most of the attention in those threads has been on the subjective nature of WR evaluation. Things like hands, willingness to go over the middle, and the like are just things that are hard to evaluate until you see someone in live action against NFL talent. So I guess I'm interested in what part those things played into your evals.

PS. Forgive me for being skeptical... but I AM glad you at least think a few WRs are worth a first round pick and it's not "a horrible idea" to pick one in that round.

Sure thing, I'll PM you the formula after this. It has been tough for me to take things like "willingness to go over the middle" into account and really the only way I could do that is to either see game film on everyone or to read others scouting reports. I do review others scouting reports, although they don't have any effect on the formula unless I see something like "player drops way too many passes" over and over and over. I'm really trying to make this as subjective of a process as possible so I really try to stay away from putting in things like that, but for a few players I did feel the need.

The suddenness I was talking about can best be seen in a combination of 10yard time and 3 cone drill time, which you'll see in more detail in the PM. Another thing I've done (and I know it's FAR from real scouting tapes) is watch highlight videos on youtube. Again, it's not something I use in the formula but in a 3 minute video I can watch at least 10 routes and view things like how fast a WR is eating up a CBs cushion, how quick he is in his breaks, the amount of separation he gets, etc and I can at least look at my ratings and say "Hey, that makes sense."

And please, there's no read to apologize for being skeptical, having skeptics question me is a great way for me to evaluate the formula. In the past month I've been showing it to friends and by asking questions and saying "Well what about this?" they've helped me look at the system in ways I probably wouldn't have otherwise. And no, I don't think Dallas drafting a WR in Rd 1 would be that bad at all, I think Bowe would be terrific. Even if we drafted a guy like Meachem I wouldn't be overly disappointed, I would say we could have gotten better value, but if he turns out to be an average WR and gives us 700-800 yards and 5 TDs a year then hell there's no way I would consider it a wasted pick. I would just never expect him to get 1200 yards and 10 TDs a year.