I mean Brees didn't start his rookie year and was injured his 3rd year. Stafford was injured his 2nd year. So the 5 FULL seasons thing applies to them too I assume? Both of them won Comeback Player of the Year awards when they came back (Dak didn't), but they still didn't lead their teams to any postseason success, so my rankings for them would not have changed probably. They would have been tier 4 guys still because, like Dak, that had proved nothing (other than winning Comeback Player of the Year).
Manning is different. He was a 3 time Pro Bowler with 2 Top 5 MVP seasons in his first 5 full seasons. He would of still been a tier 2 guy, because everyone that knew anything knew Manning was just THAT good. He was a top pick for a reason. Manning was one of the surest QB prospects ever and was thought very highly of in the NFL. He didn't have the playoffs success yet, but he clearly had the ability and was showing it. I don't believe Dak has anywhere near that ability. Neither did the people in the know either as they graded him a 4th round, 3rd day talent and that was when he was dual-threat. If he was a pure pocket passer at Miss State he goes undrafted.
If Dak wants to move up then he's going to have to be better, the same goes for the other guys in my 4th tier. It's not set in stone. If Dak wins the MVP this year, and we still get bounced in the 1st round, then he still may move up into my tier 2. Because it takes a team, but if you win the MVP then you must be doing something right. The reason I am so low on Dak right now is because I watch him shrink against good teams and buckle under pressure. If you take away the run game we're toast with Dak at QB right now. He goes as the running games goes. I still view him as nothing but a pretty good bus driver. Maybe that changes this year, but my opinion on that won't change until I see the play of the field change.
