Twitter: MVP Odds

[Irvin88_4life]

Question......if I put down $150 bucks for Dak and he wins it @ 66/1 odd, what's my take?

9,900.00

 

[WillieBeamen]

Having a little trouble parsing this. You're saying Rodgers didn't have a better year than Romo, right? I disagree, and point to the numbers I presented as my evidence.

You quoted Percy's post, I assume as evidence that Romo should have won the MVP?There are a couple problems here.
First, completion percentage, yards per pass attempt and TD percentage are all part of passer rating, so this is all pretty redundant, and still ignores sacks and rushing.
Second and more importantly, those other guys didn't have competition like Rodgers. All of them except 2001 Warner led the league in passer rating by at least 13 points (Warner led by 6, Romo led by only 1), and all of them except Montana led the league in passing TD (Rodgers led Romo by 4). 2014 was a unique year.

1.The point is there were only 6 other instances when Qbs had a season like Romo’s.

2. Are you really trying to argue that those other QBs didnt have other great QBs as their competition??

3. Passer rating has the biggest correlation to winning in football. Romo was superior there. Also, he set the record for passer rating in the month of December (arguably the most critical part of the season). Furthermore, Romo missed a game and the Cowboys lost even though Murray played which further proves Romo shouldve been MVP

 

[JD_KaPow]

1.The point is there were only 6 other instances when Qbs had a season like Romo’s.

2. Are you really trying to argue that those other QBs didnt have other great QBs as their competition??

3. Passer rating has the biggest correlation to winning in football. Romo was superior there. Also, he set the record for passer rating in the month of December (arguably the most critical part of the season). Furthermore, Romo missed a game and the Cowboys lost even though Murray played which further proves Romo shouldve been MVP

Working backwards.

3. Passer rating does not have "the biggest correlation to winning" in football. You can easily construct stats (and people have) that correlate better. Also, 113.2 is not meaningfully different from 112.2: if that one-point difference in a stat that ignores important aspects of a QB's play (such as rushing and sacks) is the crux of your argument, you don't have a strong argument. Further, when you start reaching for monthly stats and single missed games, you're not helping your case. Finally, that game they lost because Romo wasn't available is the reason they had to go on the road to GB in the playoffs, where they lost. Lack of durability works against a player's MVP case, not for it.

2. This is just silly. Of course there were great QBs in the league. But each one of those MVP-winning QB's seasons was head and shoulders above their competition in that particular year. In none of those seasons was another guy right there with them, which was the case in 2014.

1. No, the point is that when you cherry-pick certain redundant stats, you can create a list of 6 other guys and Romo. Romo squeaked by Rodgers in a few passing categories (while finishing behind him in others that were conveniently left out of the criteria). Rodgers soundly beat Romo in other categories, things like TDs, passing yards, sack rate, and (by a mile) rushing performance.

 

[Rockport]

Yet another bash Dak thread in disguise. There is no way Zeke has a better chance at winning MVP honors over Dak. This Zeke > Dak campaign needs to end right now. Dak is going to get paid and paid first. Zeke is getting traded if he gets greedy. That is where the priorities are with the Cowboys. Dak is our MVP.

It’s the national media. They are clueless. And you can tell who the CZ members are who get all their takes from the national media.

 

[bsbellomy]

It’s the national media. They are clueless. And you can tell who the CZ members are who get all their takes from the national media.

MVP Odds have nothing to do with the national. These odds follow people's money.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Working backwards.

3. Passer rating does not have "the biggest correlation to winning" in football. You can easily construct stats (and people have) that correlate better. Also, 113.2 is not meaningfully different from 112.2: if that one-point difference in a stat that ignores important aspects of a QB's play (such as rushing and sacks) is the crux of your argument, you don't have a strong argument. Further, when you start reaching for monthly stats and single missed games, you're not helping your case. Finally, that game they lost because Romo wasn't available is the reason they had to go on the road to GB in the playoffs, where they lost. Lack of durability works against a player's MVP case, not for it.

2. This is just silly. Of course there were great QBs in the league. But each one of those MVP-winning QB's seasons was head and shoulders above their competition in that particular year. In none of those seasons was another guy right there with them, which was the case in 2014.

1. No, the point is that when you cherry-pick certain redundant stats, you can create a list of 6 other guys and Romo. Romo squeaked by Rodgers in a few passing categories (while finishing behind him in others that were conveniently left out of the criteria). Rodgers soundly beat Romo in other categories, things like TDs, passing yards, sack rate, and (by a mile) rushing performance.

Bro what are you really arguing?

I had to stop reading your post when you said I reached for monthly stats and games missed.

The award is MOST. VALUABLE. PLAYER. 2 of the games the Cowboys lost were 1.Romo wasnt able to finish the game and 2. A game he completely missed. When you factor that in, the Cowboys were 12-2 in games Romo started and finished (technically 11-2 because he didnt play the whole game in the finale).

As far as the monthly stats, uhh yea they matter. I shouldnt and wont explain why the month of December is important. But lets compare their stats:

Rodgers:
3-1 w/l
94.8 rating
63% completion
1056 yards
6tds
2 ints

Romo:
4-0 w/l
133 rating
74% completion
987 yards
12td
1 int

On top of having a higher completion %, y/a, td%, passer rating, and QBR, Romo had 4 game winning drives/4qc and Rodgers only had 1.

And your point about cherry picking stats to support my argument is wrong. Surely you do know that the Espn stat Quarterback Rating (QBR), takes into consideration of ALL of the qbs contributions towards winning including the rushing stats and sacks you brought up. Romo beat him in that stat as well so ur wrong

 

[Rockport]

MVP Odds have nothing to do with the national. These odds follow people's money.

Exactly. Which is why Dak is way down on the list because the national media craps on him.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Bro what are you really arguing?

I had to stop reading your post when you said I reached for monthly stats and games missed.

The award is MOST. VALUABLE. PLAYER. 2 of the games the Cowboys lost were 1.Romo wasnt able to finish the game and 2. A game he completely missed. When you factor that in, the Cowboys were 12-2 in games Romo started and finished (technically 11-2 because he didnt play the whole game in the finale).

As far as the monthly stats, uhh yea they matter. I shouldnt and wont explain why the month of December is important. But lets compare their stats:

Rodgers:
3-1 w/l
94.8 rating
63% completion
1056 yards
6tds
2 ints

Romo:
4-0 w/l
133 rating
74% completion
987 yards
12td
1 int

On top of having a higher completion %, y/a, td%, passer rating, and QBR, Romo had 4 game winning drives/4qc and Rodgers only had 1.

And your point about cherry picking stats to support my argument is wrong. Surely you do know that the Espn stat Quarterback Rating (QBR), takes into consideration of ALL of the qbs contributions towards winning including the rushing stats and sacks you brought up. Romo beat him in that stat as well so ur wrong

December matters exactly as much as each of the other months. No more and no less. I cannot fathom why people don't understand that.

Yes, it's Most Valuable Player. And Tony missed (most of) 2 games that the team lost. He provided no value in those games, and the team ended up on the road in the playoffs. Again, lack of durability is a negative, not a positive. I cannot fathom why people don't understand that. Put it this way. If Rodgers had missed 2 games, the Packers would have been on the road in the playoffs. But he didn't, so the Cowboys were.

Tony led in the rate stats of QBR and passer rating (very slightly in both cases) but not the counting stats, like points added. Again, the time he missed mattered.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Dak=MVP ya right and Pink Elephants can fly baby!!!!

 

[beware_d-ware]

Seems reasonable to me. Zeke will only win MVP if he rushes for 2,000 yards - a 60 to 1 shot sounds about right there.

And Dak has operated within a VERY well defined statistical window through 3 seasons: 3300-3800 yards, 22-23 passing TDs, and exactly 6 rushing TDs every year. By any reasonable guess, he's going to repeat. I'm going to guess that the MVP winner this year throws for high-4000s yards and 40 TDs. Between Luck, Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers - someone's going to go off.

So for Dak to get about 40% more yardage, we're going to have to start throwing at a much higher rate than before, and Dak's going to have to play at a much higher level than before. Even if Dak gets better, he's not going to win MVP without volume. Romo played some super efficient ball in 2014 and he got 2 MVP votes out of 50. I think the odds that Dak both becomes an MVP level quarterback and we start letting him throw 40 times a game are less than 1%

 

[Diehardblues]

66/1

What I’d give for one of those top QB’s.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yet another bash Dak thread in disguise. There is no way Zeke has a better chance at winning MVP honors over Dak. This Zeke > Dak campaign needs to end right now. Dak is going to get paid and paid first. Zeke is getting traded if he gets greedy. That is where the priorities are with the Cowboys. Dak is our MVP.

He may very well be our MVP but the league looks at overall talent.

And if Zeke leads the league in rushing again ( assuming he’s playing) and Dak ends up in middle of pack again in passing while the Cowboys go further in playoffs , Elliott definitely will be one of the favorites for MVP.

QB’s don’t win MVP’s if they aren’t amongst the leaders in passing while leading their team to success.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Did you win the division like everybody said before the season started? Y'all don't have Foles to save the losing season like last year.

Way to dance around the foolishness you posted. Every year when the majority picks the winner or best team in the East they are wrong. So saying everybody says it isn't a very good argument as most of the time they are wrong.

If the majority was saying Dallas was going to win the division I would be worried. But since they said Philly will, I'm confident Philly will not win it and I'm betting on it.

Well if you’re going by negative prediction trends, then last year’s winner won’t win it anyway.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Well if you’re going by negative prediction trends, then last year’s winner won’t win it anyway.

So guess it's the Giants then that wins the division.

 

[JoeKing]

He may very well be our MVP but the league looks at overall talent.

And if Zeke leads the league in rushing again ( assuming he’s playing) and Dak ends up in middle of pack again in passing while the Cowboys go further in playoffs , Elliott definitely will be one of the favorites for MVP.

QB’s don’t win MVP’s if they aren’t amongst the leaders in passing while leading their team to success.

Yes, if that is the case, you're right but those are all big "ifs". All I'm doing is the same as you only in favor of Dak... If Dak leads the league in TDs and Zeke ends up in the middle of the pack while the Cowboys go further in the playoffs, Dak definitely will be one of the favorites for MVP.

RB's don't win MVP's if they aren't amongst the leaders in rushing yards while leading there team to success.

 

[Diehardblues]

Yes, if that is the case, you're right but those are all big "ifs". All I'm doing is the same as you only in favor of Dak... If Dak leads the league in TDs and Zeke ends up in the middle of the pack while the Cowboys go further in the playoffs, Dak definitely will be one of the favorites for MVP.

RB's don't win MVP's if they aren't amongst the leaders in rushing yards while leading there team to success.

No doubt if Prescott leads the league in passing or near the top while leading us deeper in the playoffs he’d be considered for MVP.

It just seems more likely with their talent level and history thus far it’s more likely for Elliott and probably why the odds are in his favor.

 

[JoeKing]

No doubt if Prescott leads the league in passing or near the top while leading us deeper in the playoffs he’d be considered for MVP.

It just seems more likely with their talent level and history thus far it’s more likely for Elliott and probably why the odds are in his favor.

I'm not talking about our history, I'm talking about 2019 and "their talent level" is your opinion. IMO, Dak has more diversity of talent and is by far the better leader. IMO, the oddsmakers are wrong about this one. Figuring out where the oddsmakers are wrong is how money is made in these things.

 

[Diehardblues]

I'm not talking about our history, I'm talking about 2019 and "their talent level" is your opinion. IMO, Dak has more diversity of talent and is by far the better leader. IMO, the oddsmakers are wrong about this one. Figuring out where the oddsmakers are wrong is how money is made in these things.

I’m not speaking of intangible factors. I’m talking about raw talent level. Surely you’d agree Elliott is a more talented RB than Prescott is QB?

 

[JoeKing]

I’m not speaking of intangible factors. I’m talking about raw talent level. Surely you’d agree Elliott is a more talented RB than Prescott is QB?

You aren't listening to me. Pay attention to my words. I think Dak has a greater diversity of talent than Zeke. He has a more critical role and a greater margin for error. RB and QB can not be compared like you are doing. The way you seem to be dismissing Dak, you obviously have no respect for the responsibility put on his shoulders as QB. I'm not going to take the time to persuade you of this because frankly I just don't care if you ever figure this out. Just know I'm serious when I say what I'm saying about Dak.

 

[JD_KaPow]

If Dak leads the league in TDs and Zeke ends up in the middle of the pack while the Cowboys go further in the playoffs, Dak definitely will be one of the favorites for MVP.

No doubt if Prescott leads the league in passing or near the top while leading us deeper in the playoffs he’d be considered for MVP.

MVP is a regular season award, voted on before the playoffs.