My theory on the Dak contract

[Rockport]

I think Jerry hasn't re-signed Dak yet because he isn't winning in the playoffs and this is a prove it year.

He’s been told twice to prove being tagged twice and has excelled.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

If they extend Dak now, they can structure it however they want for future years. They have a 40M dead cap if they move on for him next year. If they extend him, they are able to lessen that impact and spread it out over multiple years to help with next years cap.

And if they extended him before this year (or used the built-in restructure), they could have saved against the cap this year.

The idea that Dak is going to cripple the cap is mythology.

 

[phildadon86]

Pretty sure by extending him they would create MORE flexibility for the cap than if they don’t.

If their goal is to front load the payout this year, they can structure the extension that way if they want to.

I think the issue is far more simple: Dak is asking north of 60 mil and knows he can get it next year easily. JJ doesn’t want to pay 60+ million for a guy who craps the bed in the playoffs.

JJ’s comment this week is quite telling. He said “if you haven’t seen it by now, then you haven’t seen it.” Despite some of the nice things he has said and continues to say about Dak as a person and a player, that quote reveals a deep doubt that JJ has about Dak’s ability to deliver the goods.

The GB game has (rightfully) caused the FO to question if Dak can get it done. Hence their comfort with letting him play this year out. If he wins big, JJ will be the first to line up with the brinks truck to Dak’s front door. But if he craps out again, the FO has the flexibility to walk away and blunt some of the long term effects on their cap, get a new HC, drop some other cap heavy contracts and circle 2026 as a fresh start.

Jerry also said he isnt urgently trying to sign lamb.

Week later he was signed.

Stop listening to Jerry. He likes to drum up interest and clicks with his words.

Jerry has a deal already in place. Just like he did with Lamb. He just wants the Cowboys talked about while its happening and after. Its marketing 101.

Hence Daks comment "I dont pay attention what Jerry says TO THE MEDIA."

He knows what Jerry is doing. Dak is a lot of things. Dumb isnt one of them.

 

[KJJ]

There’s a lot of theories. Dak and his side could be holding everything up or maybe the Joneses want to see how he plays this season before making a decision. If it’s the latter, it’s a risky move by the Joneses. If Dak starts playing well and they come to him during the season with an offer, he may resist and want to play the year out. It also could be a distraction trying to work out a deal during the season. I just hope it gets resolved before the opener. The thought of having to go through a carousel of QBs next off-season to try and replace him isn’t a pleasant thought.

 

[Blitzen]

really so you're gonna want to pay prescott 75 million in dead cap over 2 years with him not here just to clear the books for 5-10 year stretch of truly bad records?? since when does the cap dictate what fans feels is best for the team. Daks best for this team the next 3 years ..redo it short term or not..NO Dak = the start of terrible stretch, hello Dave campo years. 12-15 bad qbs until we land one.,

.
by the way i hope you're happy with when Daks not here and you can have all these shiny toys you want, here come 6 wins maybe 8 =See NY Jets, Washington, and Giants, doesn't matter what you have elsewhere.

if Dak truly leaves,

IM trading away everyone lamb, parsons, and Diggs Tank and martin retired, gone , whatever than you keep Bland and Carson. Easy to project Huh?? how's Lance to Flournay sound.. get ready.

LOL!!! 12-15 QBs…

 

[Blitzen]

Lots of good points and lots of we don't want Dak. Realize the salary cap is going to be over 273 million next year, 290 in 2025 and now projected to be around 316 to 320 in 2026. Cowboys will add void years to any contract as they did already with Lamb.

Just bbelieve the hold up with Dak is number of years and the guarantee money. Dak wants either a 3 or 4 year deal while Dallas wants a 5 year deal. Think word go at 57 or 58 on a 3 year deal but probably a 5 yr deal would have to be 300 mil fully guaranteed. If I was Jerry I would go 3 years at 57/58 fully guaranteed so it gives you 3 drafts to find a guy who could sit for a year before taking over.

You have Sanders coming out in 2025 and Manning coming out in 2026. Either could be good and always others.

How do you draft those guys when you are in the mid 20’s 1st round. Getting high enough would mean giving three first rounders and it’s still no guarantee. You guys need to be more realistic.

 

[acr731]

He’s been told twice to prove being tagged twice and has excelled.

He's never excelled in the postseason. I don't even know what you are talking about.

 

[Hawkeye19]

Jerry also said he isnt urgently trying to sign lamb.

Week later he was signed.

Stop listening to Jerry. He likes to drum up interest and clicks with his words.

Jerry has a deal already in place. Just like he did with Lamb. He just wants the Cowboys talked about while its happening and after. Its marketing 101.

Hence Daks comment "I dont pay attention what Jerry says TO THE MEDIA."

He knows what Jerry is doing. Dak is a lot of things. Dumb isnt one of them.

Guess we will soon find out.

 

[Diehardblues]

I’ve believed since the onset if he’s not signed by beginning of season or soon there after , he’s gone.

The longer this drags out the more we alienate ourselves and the more it cost.

My instincts say if we don’t get a deal done soon it’s our intention to move on. Even if Dak has a banner season and finally breaks thru in playoffs which will just bolster the demand for him in Free Agency.

Good talent evaluators know if he’s our guy or not. They don’t need to see or validate winning a divisional round game. If you’re All In. You cave in. If they’re not, then move on.

Ive maintained from the beginning it’s been more about public perception with our dysfunctional ownership after playoff debacle than squeezing the Cap.

 

[Diehardblues]

He's never excelled in the postseason. I don't even know what you are talking about.

Right. But that doesn’t stop teams from ponying up Market type price for Franchise QB’s. The list is long.

They either believe in him or not . And while we don’t believe he’s Elite they have maintained he is.

I believe it’s become more about public perception than the Cap. They feel the criticism and are attempting to balance that to what they want and or believe.

 

[FiveSuperBowls]

My theory is Dak wins Superbowl this year, then he hits the jackpot and Jerry pays whatever he wants.

If same o same o, then Dak leaves and gets paid by any team that wants him, then Dallas drafts his replacement.

 

[plymkr]

I think the main reason that the Cowboys haven’t resigned Dak to a new contract is his impact on the salary CAP - not so much this year’s CAP, but the CAP for future seasons.

The Cowboys need to clear his 59M off the CAP this year, rather than kick the can down the road yet again. This is also the last year for the big contracts for Zach Martin, and DeMarcus Lawrence.

In order to set themselves up for CAP success in future seasons, AND also to have enough CAP space to sign Micah Parsons to a long term deal, they need to clear the CAP in future years. So, by letting Dak play out the final year of his contract this season, the Cowboys free themselves of a lot of rollover CAP charges they would incur by signing Dak now.

Finally, if you listen to Dak’s latest comments to the press, he says he understands what they are doing from a business perspective. And Jerry has explicitly said the failure to sign Dak this year isn’t because they don’t value Dak; rather, it is about CAP management.

Ultimately , if the Cowboys want to keep Dak (and I believe they do want Dak back), then it will cost them more in real dollars by waiting until next year. But the name of the game is CAP management. They run the risk of alienating Dak; but on the other hand, they believe Dak wants to be in Dallas, and will forgive them.

Trey Lance is their backup plan. You can see he has the physical tools to be a successful NFL QB. His arm strength and elusiveness jump out at you when you watch him. But he’s reckless with the ball - something Dak isn’t. If Dak leaves, the Cowboys will keep Lance on a cheap contract, hoping they can coach the recklessness out of him. But they’d rather have Dak.

The bottom line is the NFL economics is forcing the Cowboys to “reset” their CAP for future seasons. That is why they are choosing to take the big CAP hit for Dak this year - hoping they can fix it all next March.

At least that is my theory, based on looking at the contracts, future CAP space, and the comments coming from both Jerry and Dak.

Does anyone know how much dead cap will be there for DLaw and Martin after this season?

 

[Sandyf]

The Cap can go up to a billion dollars, Dak has had enough time as a cowboy, he's taken enough money from us. If he were better in the playoffs, we'd be having a much different conversation

Since the last time Dallas was in a Super Bowl (1995), 16 QBs have won Super Bowls, some 30 Super Bowls. There have been over 400 QBs that started for teams during that time period. It ain't easy getting there and definitely not easy winning it. We do expect more from our QBs but reality is that is ain't just the QB. Defense still wins championships, always has. It is rare that once the playoffs start that a team gets blown away.

Blame Dak for some of them but he didn't give up 48 points to GreenBay, he didn't give up a last second field gold where Rodgers went some 60 years in 30 seconds to win on a last second field goal. The defense gave up 30 points to the Rams and still a one score game, the year Goff got the Rams to the Super Bowl, and the other 2 losses were one score games. It takes a team to win and a team to lose.

Give up on Dak if you want but there is no guarantee that some rookie will lead us to the Super Bowl if we even could get a top pick in 2025 draft. Everyone seems to want Sanders or maybe the next year in Manning but odds are we (Jerry) will never give up the draft capital it would take to move from the 20s and 30s to get there. So the we hope for another Dak in the 4th round or Brady in the 6th.

It is your opinion, mind is that Dak has been 12-5 for last 3 years and if luck holds at least that again and a playoff spot and hopefully get lucky with a late 1st or 2nd round pick that can learn for a couple of years under Dak. Everyone gave up on Manning and Elway winning or getting to a Super Bowl and I believe both were at 7 years and beyond. Winning the season is important and I for one would rather be in the playoffs every year than on the outside looking in.

 

[Jarv]

Since the last time Dallas was in a Super Bowl (1995), 16 QBs have won Super Bowls, some 30 Super Bowls. There have been over 400 QBs that started for teams during that time period. It ain't easy getting there and definitely not easy winning it. We do expect more from our QBs but reality is that is ain't just the QB. Defense still wins championships, always has. It is rare that once the playoffs start that a team gets blown away.

Blame Dak for some of them but he didn't give up 48 points to GreenBay, he didn't give up a last second field gold where Rodgers went some 60 years in 30 seconds to win on a last second field goal. The defense gave up 30 points to the Rams and still a one score game, the year Goff got the Rams to the Super Bowl, and the other 2 losses were one score games. It takes a team to win and a team to lose.

Give up on Dak if you want but there is no guarantee that some rookie will lead us to the Super Bowl if we even could get a top pick in 2025 draft. Everyone seems to want Sanders or maybe the next year in Manning but odds are we (Jerry) will never give up the draft capital it would take to move from the 20s and 30s to get there. So the we hope for another Dak in the 4th round or Brady in the 6th.

It is your opinion, mind is that Dak has been 12-5 for last 3 years and if luck holds at least that again and a playoff spot and hopefully get lucky with a late 1st or 2nd round pick that can learn for a couple of years under Dak. Everyone gave up on Manning and Elway winning or getting to a Super Bowl and I believe both were at 7 years and beyond. Winning the season is important and I for one would rather be in the playoffs every year than on the outside looking in.

Yes I do blame Dak, most agree which is why he hasn't been signed yet.

 

[Chasing6]

I think the main reason that the Cowboys haven’t resigned Dak to a new contract is his impact on the salary CAP - not so much this year’s CAP, but the CAP for future seasons.

The Cowboys need to clear his 59M off the CAP this year, rather than kick the can down the road yet again. This is also the last year for the big contracts for Zach Martin, and DeMarcus Lawrence.

In order to set themselves up for CAP success in future seasons, AND also to have enough CAP space to sign Micah Parsons to a long term deal, they need to clear the CAP in future years. So, by letting Dak play out the final year of his contract this season, the Cowboys free themselves of a lot of rollover CAP charges they would incur by signing Dak now.

Finally, if you listen to Dak’s latest comments to the press, he says he understands what they are doing from a business perspective. And Jerry has explicitly said the failure to sign Dak this year isn’t because they don’t value Dak; rather, it is about CAP management.

Ultimately , if the Cowboys want to keep Dak (and I believe they do want Dak back), then it will cost them more in real dollars by waiting until next year. But the name of the game is CAP management. They run the risk of alienating Dak; but on the other hand, they believe Dak wants to be in Dallas, and will forgive them.

Trey Lance is their backup plan. You can see he has the physical tools to be a successful NFL QB. His arm strength and elusiveness jump out at you when you watch him. But he’s reckless with the ball - something Dak isn’t. If Dak leaves, the Cowboys will keep Lance on a cheap contract, hoping they can coach the recklessness out of him. But they’d rather have Dak.

The bottom line is the NFL economics is forcing the Cowboys to “reset” their CAP for future seasons. That is why they are choosing to take the big CAP hit for Dak this year - hoping they can fix it all next March.

At least that is my theory, based on looking at the contracts, future CAP space, and the comments coming from both Jerry and Dak.

It is not Dak's $59M Cap hit. It is Jerry's kick the can down the road cap hit.

 

[DanA]

I think the main reason that the Cowboys haven’t resigned Dak to a new contract is his impact on the salary CAP - not so much this year’s CAP, but the CAP for future seasons.

The Cowboys need to clear his 59M off the CAP this year, rather than kick the can down the road yet again. This is also the last year for the big contracts for Zach Martin, and DeMarcus Lawrence.

In order to set themselves up for CAP success in future seasons, AND also to have enough CAP space to sign Micah Parsons to a long term deal, they need to clear the CAP in future years. So, by letting Dak play out the final year of his contract this season, the Cowboys free themselves of a lot of rollover CAP charges they would incur by signing Dak now.

Finally, if you listen to Dak’s latest comments to the press, he says he understands what they are doing from a business perspective. And Jerry has explicitly said the failure to sign Dak this year isn’t because they don’t value Dak; rather, it is about CAP management.

Ultimately , if the Cowboys want to keep Dak (and I believe they do want Dak back), then it will cost them more in real dollars by waiting until next year. But the name of the game is CAP management. They run the risk of alienating Dak; but on the other hand, they believe Dak wants to be in Dallas, and will forgive them.

Trey Lance is their backup plan. You can see he has the physical tools to be a successful NFL QB. His arm strength and elusiveness jump out at you when you watch him. But he’s reckless with the ball - something Dak isn’t. If Dak leaves, the Cowboys will keep Lance on a cheap contract, hoping they can coach the recklessness out of him. But they’d rather have Dak.

The bottom line is the NFL economics is forcing the Cowboys to “reset” their CAP for future seasons. That is why they are choosing to take the big CAP hit for Dak this year - hoping they can fix it all next March.

At least that is my theory, based on looking at the contracts, future CAP space, and the comments coming from both Jerry and Dak.

Given you can roll unused cap space over I’m not sure this makes a lot of sense. You’d just leave the extra cap space created in 2024 unused. What’s the difference between if you pay him 20m and roll over 39m vs pay him 59m? I would have thought not doing a deal is actually worse because money has a time value not factored in to cap equation, so Dak getting cash now has more value than later.

Plus having Dak under contract better allows you to plan.

I think it’s they can’t agree a number, pure and simple.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Yes I do blame Dak, most agree which is why he hasn't been signed yet.

Yes as I stated, play better in the playoffs and maybe we're not even talking about this!

 

[JBS]

OP has no clue about CAP

 

[plymkr]

And then the real complaints can happen you know the valid ones when Prescott's gone this is going to be a truly Dave campo type situation. Prepare yourself .. If you haven't been paying attention finding a starting quarterback could take three years it could take 10 years..wotour one you like to call this team over Daks tenure Mediocre gt ready for the real definition to come true, just saying the complaints will be actually valid for once.

In 2000 Dave Campo took over as coach and Troy was concussed and retired at the end of the season. Dave Campo coached the Cowboys from 2001-2003. In 2001 Quincy Carter was drafted. In 2004 Quincy Carter lead the Dallas Cowboys to a 10 win season and a WC loss. In 2023 Dak Prescott lead the Cowboys to a 12 win season and a WC loss. So what’s the difference?

Since signing his mega deal for 40 million APY Dak Prescott has lead the Cowboys to one game closer to the Super Bowl than Quincy Carter. And Quincy Carter is widely regarded as one of the worst QBs in franchise history.

So this argument that we will have a hard time replacing Dak if he leaves doesn’t have much merit considering we survived Quincy Carter leaving. A lot of fans are acting as if Dak leaving is the end to some magical Cowboys dynasty and I don’t see it. I see us as only one game closer to the Super Bowl than what Quincy Carter did. I’m pretty confident we can find a Quincy Carter in the draft. In fact we have a Quincy Carter on the roster, his name is Lance.

 

[Aven8]

Nice post. I agree. But I also believe that they truly don’t believe in him. This is the second time they’ve done this with his contract waiting to the very end “prove it deal” type of thing. They paint themselves in the corner however by having no backup plans. They want Lance to be that but he’s not. He can’t throw.

They cave because of relevancy. We’ve watched the Hard Knocks etc. When you don’t have a QB your team is cooked. Think about this. The Chicago Bears have never had a 4,000 yard passer! They have been living in purgatory for decades. Yes they made a SB since us, but that was all on the defense with Tillman and Urlacker.

It’s a lose lose situation unless Dak wins it all. Highest paid QB? Or No QB?