Seeing that your cases involved cutting and surgical intervention, they are even less like Jaylon's case than the studies I am talking about. Crush and stretch are both categorized as type 2 or 3 given palsy whereas cutting is by definition the worst case, type 4. I specifically ignored all the stuff relating to grafts due to that.
No doubt the atrophy post injury is significant but Smith's injury was nowhere near as problematic in overall recovery just playing percentages of outcomes. If I recall correctly, not all of the reinnervations involved using the old synaptic endplate and instead formed new ones either.
Ultimately the lack of specificity means I cannot just look up prognosis for type 2 peroneal injuries.
Once the injury occurs it takes about a month or so before regeneration starts. Once the nerve regenerates to the distal region it takes anywhere from a month to several months for the endplate to form.
If you had minimal to no delays at the endpoints his January injury would reinnervate about August but I recall calculating that it could happen at September at the earliest given the delays.
He made several tweets late September and early October where he talks about God's timing and thanking God which were not similar to his posts before or after even his religious tweets before or after that time period. There is a difference between saying God is great or that you do what you do for God as he does the rest of the time and thanking god for something that he did at that time.
I don't think there is any question that something significant happened to him. I also cannot think of anything other than his medical situation that he would be so coy about that he would be willing to bring up on twitter in the first place.
I recall the researchers talking about how severing near the muscle is an easy case.
I dont know which is a better match for Jaylon's stretch case 6 inches from the muscle, having to regenerate some distance after cut and suture or your case with the crushed nerve next to the muscle.
Given that end-to-end suture has high success rate (~75%), I tend to think it is not that different than stretch (~90%) - % are from recollection only.
In either case, Jaylon has a decent chance for playing near the end of the season.
Wow, you really did a lot of research into this.
I only read the literature because I was writing a business plan for the researchers.
In terms of the recovery, I recall it was 1 month delay + 1 month/inch = August 8th or so.
Not sure how you got to Sept.
I will ask the researchers about your papers.
About Jaylon's tweets, I think we have the same suspicions.