Osa Odighizuwa Is An Underrated Pass Rusher

[Cowboys5217]

And no NFL front office would. It takes fans time to adjust but the analytics are taking over, and already have. This is the same type of arguments baseball fans had 20 years ago when analytics first hit the game hard. Back then teams would pay guys for counting stats like RBIs and Wins and be disappointed with the results.

Sacks are great but pressures are just as important. They get the qb to throw the ball away, make bad throws, and contribute to turnovers. Pressure rates and win rates are also more protectable year to year….most of the time.

Jimmy Johnson would take the guy who gets more sacks. He placed playmakers above all others.

 

[Cowboys5217]

While pressures are certainly important, they are not as important as sacks. When a QB is sacked, he cannot complete a pass or score points for his team. When a QB is pressured, he can do both of the previous. One outcome ends a play. The other one introduces other possible outcomes.

Odighizuwa went 15 weeks without a sack last year. To act as if he's an underrated pass rusher when his finish stats are not there is embellishing his abilities in that area. He has the tools, but needs to get the QB on the ground more than in two games of a season.

Similar to the argument I had recently about why Diggs and Bland are the best CBs we've had since Deion and that CBs who go full seasons with zero interceptions are anything BUT a shut down corner.

 

[Plankton]

Tell me the difference between a 4-yard sack and a forced incompletion on third and 10.

Better field position for the defense. What do I win?

Tell me the difference between a sack and a play where a QB is pressured, but throws a TD.

 

[speedkilz88]

Jimmy Johnson would take the guy who gets more sacks. He placed playmakers above all others.

So how many sacks did Russell Maryland and Tony Casillas get for him?

 

[Plankton]

QBs that are pressured are less effective.

QBs that are sacked are not productive on those plays. You can't say the same about pressures.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

Better field position for the defense. What do I win?

Tell me the difference between a sack and a play where a QB is pressured, but throws a TD.

4 yards is nothing, good try.

Tell me the difference, on second down, between a sack that gets converted on third down and an INT caused by a pressure.

It goes both ways. Volume pressure is far more impactful to an offense than sack rate on pressures.

 

[thunderpimp91]

While pressures are certainly important, they are not as important as sacks. When a QB is sacked, he cannot complete a pass or score points for his team. When a QB is pressured, he can do both of the previous. One outcome ends a play. The other one introduces other possible outcomes.

Odighizuwa went 15 weeks without a sack last year. To act as if he's an underrated pass rusher when his finish stats are not there is embellishing his abilities in that area. He has the tools, but needs to get the QB on the ground more than in two games of a season.

What you're saying is mostly true, but it's missing the point. I'm not saying sacks are not bad, but there is a level of randomization to sack numbers combined with sack totals being a relatively low number in general. These two factors combine to make sacks an unreliable stat to project year to year, especially for interior players not named Aaron Donald. Daron Payne was a 5 sack guy in 2021, got paid after a 12 sack year in 2022, and saw that drop to 5 this past season. We can look at the advanced metrics and see that his hurries, pressures, etc were all fairly consistent year to year with a slight jump in that high sack season. We can look at that data and make a relatively good assumption that Payne is not going to be a 10+ sack guy again unless a bit of luck comes into play or he is aggressively schemed to get a plethora of 1v1 looks.

On the flip side I look at a guy like Javon Hargrave....

2017: 9% pressure rate, 2 sacks, 231 snaps
2018: 9% pressure rate, 7 sacks, 243 snaps
2019: 13% pressure rate, 4 sacks, 373 snaps
2020:11% pressure rate, 4.5 sacks, 339 snaps
2021: 14% pressure rate, 7.5 sacks, 451 snaps
2022: 12.5% pressure rate, 11 sacks, 453 snaps
2023: 12% pressure rate, 7 sacks, 448 snaps

There is simply little consistency in the sack totals. He didn't come cheap, but was still a bargain for Philly when they initially signed him. His 2018 to 2019 seasons strongly indicated that he was a player capable in making a jump sack wise and hes become one of the better known interior rushers in the game today.

Compare this to a guy like OSA who is getting comparable pressure rates overall and the sack numbers should eventually come. With OSAs sack numbers from a year ago we really are only talking about 3-4 plays where he needed to be a fraction of a second quicker to the QB in order to be viewed as a top rusher from the interior. I think we simply have to look at the data in its entirety instead of just looking at sacks alone, which best case scenario only make up an average of 1 player per game for a player.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

What you're saying is mostly true, but it's missing the point. I'm not saying sacks are not bad, but there is a level of randomization to sack numbers combined with sack totals being a relatively low number in general. These two factors combine to make sacks an unreliable stat to project year to year, especially for interior players not named Aaron Donald. Daron Payne was a 5 sack guy in 2021, got paid after a 12 sack year in 2022, and saw that drop to 5 this past season. We can look at the advanced metrics and see that his hurries, pressures, etc were all fairly consistent year to year with a slight jump in that high sack season. We can look at that data and make a relatively good assumption that Payne is not going to be a 10+ sack guy again unless a bit of luck comes into play or he is aggressively schemed to get a plethora of 1v1 looks.

On the flip side I look at a guy like Javon Hargrave....

2017: 9% pressure rate, 2 sacks, 231 snaps
2018: 9% pressure rate, 7 sacks, 243 snaps
2019: 13% pressure rate, 4 sacks, 373 snaps
2020:11% pressure rate, 4.5 sacks, 339 snaps
2021: 14% pressure rate, 7.5 sacks, 451 snaps
2022: 12.5% pressure rate, 11 sacks, 453 snaps
2023: 12% pressure rate, 7 sacks, 448 snaps

There is simply little consistency in the sack totals. He didn't come cheap, but was still a bargain for Philly when they initially signed him. His 2018 to 2019 seasons strongly indicated that he was a player capable in making a jump sack wise and hes become one of the better known interior rushers in the game today.

Compare this to a guy like OSA who is getting comparable pressure rates overall and the sack numbers should eventually come. With OSAs sack numbers from a year ago we really are only talking about 3-4 plays where he needed to be a fraction of a second quicker to the QB in order to be viewed as a top rusher from the interior. I think we simply have to look at the data in its entirety instead of just looking at sacks alone, which best case scenario only make up an average of 1 player per game for a player.

Good post.

See also: Jordan Phillips in 2019. He had 9.5 sacks on 25 pressures lol

 

[Plankton]

4 yards is nothing, good try.

Tell me the difference, on second down, between a sack that gets converted on third down and an INT caused by a pressure.

It goes both ways. Volume pressure is far more impactful to an offense than sack rate on pressures.

4 yards is nothing. Good to know.

A pressure is nothing when a first down is converted or a scoring play for the offense is the result. With a sack, there is no possibility of those two outcomes. Pressures are definitely important. Plays that result in zero possible positive outcomes for the offense are more valuable.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Anyone seen sacks versus pressures *quantified* into win probability added (WPA)?

I haven't, but I betcha a nickel that
WPA(1 sack) > WPA(1 pressure)

You're probably right, but in general a player is going to have a lot more pressures than sacks to even that out.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

4 yards is nothing. Good to know.

A pressure is nothing when a first down is converted or a scoring play for the offense is the result. With a sack, there is no possibility of those two outcomes. Pressures are definitely important. Plays that result in zero possible positive outcomes for the offense are more valuable.

In the grand scheme of field position, it is nothing.

A sack is nothing if a first-down is converted on the next play. You're acting like a sack ends every drive.

 

[zrinkill]

4 yards is nothing. Good to know.

A pressure is nothing when a first down is converted or a scoring play for the offense is the result. With a sack, there is no possibility of those two outcomes. Pressures are definitely important. Plays that result in zero possible positive outcomes for the offense are more valuable.

Damn ...... Plankton is putting on a clinic

 

[thunderpimp91]

In the grand scheme of field position, it is nothing.

A sack is nothing if a first-down is converted on the next play. You're acting like a sack ends every drive.

A lot of offenses are OK taking sacks these days too. Granted his injury history doesnt suggest its a great idea but Burrow went to a superbowl with the ideology that he would rather hold onto the ball and take the -5 yard play because their offense is designed for the big chunk plays so it doesn't matter as much.

 

[visionary]

How do you “under-rate” someone who regularly vanishes in nov/dec/jan?

Answer: LOL

 

[thunderpimp91]

How do you “under-rate” someone who regularly vanishes in nov/dec/jan?

Answer: LOL

Thats the whole point of the thread though....he really doesnt vanish down the stretch. His advanced metrics are basically the exact same the first half of the season to the second half of the season. By saying he vanishes is probably suggesting that you're more focused on the 4 or so plays that don't show up as sacks on the stat sheet instead of evaluating the other 400ish snaps. Individually the 4 are important to see, but collectively the 400 is what we should be evaluating off of.

 

[Rayman70]

I think he's in a contract year. Could be wrong. Usually guys play better in that scenario. No matter, we will need him to be complete as a dlineman. He's gonna need to be good all the time . Yes, he's been kinda overlooked I think. We don't talk about him much. Glad someone made a thread on him. He's been a good player for us. He needs to be slightly better than good this year.

 

[CWR]

QBs that are sacked are not productive on those plays. You can't say the same about pressures.

It's such a silly argument. Pressure is a good thing, and sacks are a better thing. It's really that simple.

 

[MarcusRock]

In the grand scheme of field position, it is nothing.

A sack is nothing if a first-down is converted on the next play. You're acting like a sack ends every drive.

Is that not also true of a pressure? If anything, a sack decreases the chance of converting a 1st Down in the series since there's loss of yardage. Not sure where the 4-yard example came from but your typical sack is 8-12 yards from what I can recall. That can indeed be significant for field position or for trying to kick a late FG in a half or something, etc. Whether one is better or not is a big ol' argument of opinions unless someone has numbers but sacks are more devastating to an opposing offense than a pressure on any given down. They just come farther and fewer in between so you can't make your living on that if you're a defense, so the two work together.

 

[Chasing6]

What was his pressure rate when he was singled is the bigger question???

 

[Chasing6]

That was a video of Micah being doubled and forcing the QB to step up in the pocket.

Osa was chipped by a TE and released.