Parameters of Dak next contract

[DIAF]

Thanks for running the numbers and actually posting them to prove my point

He has been very good his whole career except the first 6 weeks this year when he was simply good

If you think his first 6 games of the year were simply "good" you have a very bad definition of the word.

106 completions/171 attempts, 1144 yards (190.67 ypg, 6.69 YPA), 7 TDs, 4 Ints, 19 sacks, 4 fumbles for a QB rating of 85.52 is NOT "good". 85.5 is the 28th or 29 rated QB in terms of passer rating. Essentially, 2018 Alex Smith or Jameis Winston or Joe Flacco. Bottom of the barrel as far as starting QBs go. 10 years ago a rating in the mid 80s would have been mediocre, but with the proliferation of even more sophisticated passing attacks, its now nearly dead last for starting QBs.

That's not good.

Basically, you argument is "Dak has gone from downright awful to acceptable". I dont know about you, but I want better than just 'Acceptable" especially If I'm about to have to pay him 20+ million a year and eat up a bunch of cap space.

 

[Sydla]

Eagles face big decision on Carson Wentz's contract

The Philadelphia Eagles have a critical decision in front of them when it comes to quarterback Carson Wentz, who is eligible for a new contract starting Dec. 31.

Nick Foles mania aside, coach Doug Pederson has made it clear that "when [Wentz is] healthy, he's our quarterback." The organization has long held the conviction that Wentz is a franchise QB with enormous potential, and they have a history of locking in their core players early.

Wentz is dealing with a stress fracture in his back at the moment, though, and is coming off a serious multiligament knee injury. Does the team slow-play the negotiations given his recent health issues and risk getting slammed financially when the market resets, or do they try and lock him up soon while the cost is (comparatively) reasonable and cross their fingers that these type of injuries don't continue to strike?

http://www.espn.com/blog/philadelph...s-face-big-decision-on-carson-wentzs-contract

---

I'm guessing Dak's agent will use numbers similar to Wentz and/or Goff, especially if using their stats and postseason play.

Side note.......notice the chart will the top 6 QBs contracts/salaries. For fans saying let him play out his last year of 2019, $28.6M is the average salary for the top on the list. Meaning 2019 franchise tag for QBs could jump from $23M to 28M.

Just know this isn't Dak, the reality is the NFL market for starting QBs is on fire. Notice what the article says about Russell Wilson next deal.

Bottom line.....IF Dak is your 2020-2021 starter with a contract averaging $23-25M, it's likely a bargain.


ModEdit: Made the post a lot more readable than it was.

I am not sure you are calculating the tag right.

The cap hit for 2018 was $23MM and that was based on the top 5 average salaries as of April 2018 for the 2018 cap year. If you take the data in that article, that number would be well over $23MM.

The cap hit for 2019 will likely be around $25MM or so, not $28MM. The tag has gone up anywhere from $500K to $2MM annually.

 

[Sydla]

at minimum his franchise years will be 29 and almost 35m (120% year 2 franchise). that works out to a 3 year avg salary including his last year on the rookie deal of 21.5m

the franchise tag will be taken up and no one else will be protected if needed (zeke, jaylon, byron). tons of questions for 2 years and stress about your qb situation like they had in washington will take a toll on the team. unnecessary drama. i'd rather front load a deal or lower the signing bonus and provide roster bonus and lock him up for a bit more money. 23 to 25 structured team friendly is definitely the way to go imo. i still have doubts and hesitations about dak but this is the smart team play imo. both sides get something out of it.

5 years 120. first 2 years fully guaranteed (48 mil). team can walk away each year after that.

it's comparable to franchising him 2 years in a row without actually doing it.

I don't believe that's true at all.

 

[Sydla]

I think the Eagles trade Foles before the start of next season.
Or
Somewhere before they need to re-sign Wentz.

Foles is due $20 million next season.

Foles can opt out in 2019, which I suspect he likely will.

So the Eagles likely can't trade him. Because Foles will opt for FA before that.

 

[Willfreedom909]

Uh, no he hasn't. The only qb on that list he's "outplayed" is Stafford, who is saddled with a bad OC, injured, and had his team trade away his weapons.

Also, there's more to a players' trade value than his stats. Contract status is just as important.

Dak Prescott has 1 more year of being a cheap bargain, then he has to get PAID. Starting QBs are almost always overpaid, that's just the nature of the position. Year 2 someone is going to have to give him 100+ million for 5 years, with most of that guaranteed. There's no way a team is going to trade a 1st and 2nd. Don't be dumb. This isn't Madden franchise mode.

No I meant in head to head matchups

 

[Sydla]

Foles has a 20m mutual option.... either side can void it

And Foles will void that by all indications.

 

[iceberg]

Just curious, what happens if a year later he's the 10th ranked passer?

he should have done it previous to the 3+ years took him to get there.

 

[HanD]

I don't believe that's true at all.

i have no idea if this is correct.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2019/average/quarterback/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

based on the avg/year columns of the top 5, the franchise tag would be 29.2

 

[Sydla]

i have no idea if this is correct.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2019/average/quarterback/

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

based on the avg/year columns of the top 5, the franchise tag would be 29.2

It's not correct.

Go into spotrac and look at the 2018 "average salaries" for the Top 5 QBs. That is what the 2018 tag was based on. In other words, the top 5 salaries for that coming league year are what the tag is. So for the 2018 tag, it was based on the 2018 salaries.

Using the 2018 numbers, the tag should have been like $28MM. It wasn't. It was $23MM. As I understand it, the totals used are adjusted for certain contract parameters.

 

[LatinMind]

Eagles face big decision on Carson Wentz's contract

The Philadelphia Eagles have a critical decision in front of them when it comes to quarterback Carson Wentz, who is eligible for a new contract starting Dec. 31.

Nick Foles mania aside, coach Doug Pederson has made it clear that "when [Wentz is] healthy, he's our quarterback." The organization has long held the conviction that Wentz is a franchise QB with enormous potential, and they have a history of locking in their core players early.

Wentz is dealing with a stress fracture in his back at the moment, though, and is coming off a serious multiligament knee injury. Does the team slow-play the negotiations given his recent health issues and risk getting slammed financially when the market resets, or do they try and lock him up soon while the cost is (comparatively) reasonable and cross their fingers that these type of injuries don't continue to strike?

http://www.espn.com/blog/philadelph...s-face-big-decision-on-carson-wentzs-contract

---

I'm guessing Dak's agent will use numbers similar to Wentz and/or Goff, especially if using their stats and postseason play.

Side note.......notice the chart will the top 6 QBs contracts/salaries. For fans saying let him play out his last year of 2019, $28.6M is the average salary for the top on the list. Meaning 2019 franchise tag for QBs could jump from $23M to 28M.

Just know this isn't Dak, the reality is the NFL market for starting QBs is on fire. Notice what the article says about Russell Wilson next deal.

Bottom line.....IF Dak is your 2020-2021 starter with a contract averaging $23-25M, it's likely a bargain.


ModEdit: Made the post a lot more readable than it was.

I think dak will have a huge cap hit in 2020 basically because Dallas has over 113 mil in cap room. It will go down because of deals made this offseason but it won’t go down a lot because basically Dallas has most of its core players locked up and the rest playing on rookie deals.

And the way the team handles deals is they give the player a lot of money in the first 3 yrs. as the sb is lower but the base salaries is guaranteed. So say they give him 50 in guaranteed money and say 20 mil sb. That’s 4 mil a yr on prorated signing bonus and can guaranteed say 20mil base in 2020. That’s 24mil or almost half of his guaranteed money already paid in just the first yr. which will give them options to restructure in later yrs they need the money. Or limit the money owed if he doesn’t work out.

 

[HanD]

It's not correct.

Go into spotrac and look at the 2018 "average salaries" for the Top 5 QBs. That is what the 2018 tag was based on. In other words, the top 5 salaries for that coming league year are what the tag is. So for the 2018 tag, it was based on the 2018 salaries.

Using the 2018 numbers, the tag should have been like $28MM. It wasn't. It was $23MM. As I understand it, the totals used are adjusted for certain contract parameters.

Isn't that because the nfl didn't calculate jimmyG, cousins, matt ryan and aaron rodgers even though they were technically signed in 2018?

if talking about 2019 aav. how do you calculate 25m for the franchise based on rodgers making 33.5, ryan 30, cousins 28, jimmyg making 27.5 and stafford at 27 for their contracts?


EDIT: actually....it isn't just the top 5 aav.....that computation changed....

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/28/10-things-to-know-about-the-franchise-tag/

 

[Mobinvans]

Just curious, what happens if a year later he's the 10th ranked passer?

Than I would be ecstatic and sign him

 

[Sydla]

Isn't that because the nfl didn't calculate jimmyG, cousins, matt ryan and aaron rodgers even though they were technically signed in 2018?

if talking about 2019 aav. how do you calculate 25m for the franchise based on rodgers making 33.5, ryan 30, cousins 28, jimmyg making 27.5 and stafford at 27 for their contracts?

But new contracts for QBs isn't something that happened last year.

Go back and look at the history of the QB tag number. Never had it gone up by more than roughly $2MM a year. Now it's going to go up $6MM?

There was an article on ESPN earlier this year from one of their cap gurus and he said basically the tag numbers go up anywhere from $500K to $2MM roughly a year.

EDIT: Pick a random year. Take 2015. The Top 5 QB salaries according to Spotrac averaged $21.5MM. The actual exclusive tag that year was $18.5MM. In 2016, the tag was $19.9MM, but the avg salary for 2016 from Spotrac was well over $23MM.

Its likely the tag could go up by more than $2MM in 2019 but $6MM? Not likely.

 

[HanD]

But new contracts for QBs isn't something that happened last year.

Go back and look at the history of the QB tag number. Never had it gone up by more than roughly $2MM a year. Now it's going to go up $6MM?

There was an article on ESPN earlier this year from one of their cap gurus and he said basically the tag numbers go up anywhere from $500K to $2MM roughly a year.

EDIT: Pick a random year. Take 2015. The Top 5 QB salaries according to Spotrac averaged $21.5MM. The actual exclusive tag that year was $18.5MM. In 2016, the tag was $19.9MM, but the avg salary for 2016 from Spotrac was well over $23MM.

Its likely the tag could go up by more than $2MM in 2019 but $6MM? Not likely.

i just edited my post to show that the numbers aren't just based on top 5 aav for the position. if it was, the number would go up by 6m based on rodgers, ryan, cousins and jimmyg getting huge deals. the calculation has changed. although this says for non exclusive tag

"
Under Article 10, Section 2 of the CBA, the number is based on the five-year average cap percentage for the tag at each position.

So it’s no longer driven by what players at the same position made in the prior season, but by the average cap percentage consumed by the franchise tender over five years. "


EDIT. if exclusive, i think it is still top 5 aav and will be 29m. if non exclusive it will be lower imo.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/...ive-non-exclusive-explained-article-1.2985100

Non-exclusive franchise tag:

This is the most common use of the tag, and the one that Landry received from the Dolphins. It results in a one-year guaranteed contract offer from the club to the player for a set amount based on position.

In the past that amount was calculated by averaging the salaries of the five highest paid players at that position the previous season. Under the 2011 CBA it became slightly more complex. Now, the non-exclusive tag is calculated by adding the franchise tag cost together from the five previous seasons and dividing it by the sum of the salary caps from the five previous seasons to get a percentage-of-cap number that is then multiplied by that year's cap.

Got it? Actually, the non-exclusive franchise tag is worth either that number, or 120% of the player's salary from the year before, whichever is greater.


Exclusive franchise tag:

The more uncommon tag still is used in some cases. The exclusive tag number is determined by the average of the five highest-paid players at the position. And that's based on this upcoming season, so the actual number won't be known until April when the Restricted Free Agent Signing Period ends because free agents this year could raise that average. Again, a 20% raise from that player's prior season salary becomes the franchise tag number if it is greater than the other calculation.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I am not sure you are calculating the tag right.

The cap hit for 2018 was $23MM and that was based on the top 5 average salaries as of April 2018 for the 2018 cap year. If you take the data in that article, that number would be well over $23MM.

The cap hit for 2019 will likely be around $25MM or so, not $28MM. The tag has gone up anywhere from $500K to $2MM annually.

You could be right but I thought the tag was based on the top 5 average salaries. By my calculation, the top 5 salaries average is like $28.6M. Remember there were at least 2-3 huge QB contracts that escalated the salaries for QBs to record levels. But again, I'm certainly no expert so I could easily be wrong. Here's an article from Sporting News that talks franchise tag calculation.

Just curious.......why are you mentioning cap hit?


http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...vs-non-exclusive-transition-difference/1w7mwh
What’s the deal with exclusive, non-exclusive and transition tags?
There are three types of tags: non-exclusive, exclusive and transition tags.

Non-exclusive tags are most commonly used. It means a team will pay the tagged player no less than the average of the five highest salaries at the player’s position, or 120 percent of the player’s cap number from the previous season, whichever is greater. The player is allowed to negotiate with other teams, but his current team can match any offer sheet. If a player's current team declines to match another team's offer, it will be awarded two first-round draft picks as compensation

 

[Nightman]

If you think his first 6 games of the year were simply "good" you have a very bad definition of the word.

106 completions/171 attempts, 1144 yards (190.67 ypg, 6.69 YPA), 7 TDs, 4 Ints, 19 sacks, 4 fumbles for a QB rating of 85.52 is NOT "good". 85.5 is the 28th or 29 rated QB in terms of passer rating. Essentially, 2018 Alex Smith or Jameis Winston or Joe Flacco. Bottom of the barrel as far as starting QBs go. 10 years ago a rating in the mid 80s would have been mediocre, but with the proliferation of even more sophisticated passing attacks, its now nearly dead last for starting QBs.

That's not good.

Basically, you argument is "Dak has gone from downright awful to acceptable". I dont know about you, but I want better than just 'Acceptable" especially If I'm about to have to pay him 20+ million a year and eat up a bunch of cap space.

85 Passer Rating is clearly in the Good range.... thanks again for the legwork to prove my point

/case

 

[DIAF]

85 Passer Rating is clearly in the Good range.... thanks again for the legwork to prove my point

/case

On what planet is that good? Did you not just read the rest of my post? An 85 passer rating means you are likely one of the worst starting QBs statistically in today's NFL!!!! holy crap

 

[Hawkeye0202]

85 Passer Rating is clearly in the Good range.... thanks again for the legwork to prove my point

/case

Just curious....what your take on the expected tag increase for QBs 2019? Did I calculate right using the top salaries for an average of around $28M? Sydla says, as a rule, it generally caps put at max around 2M.

 

[Sydla]

You could be right but I thought the tag was based on the top 5 average salaries. By my calculation, the top 5 salaries average is like $28.6M. Remember there were at least 2-3 huge QB contracts that escalated the salaries for QBs to record levels. But again, I'm certainly no expert so I could easily be wrong. Here's an article from Sporting News that talks franchise tag calculation.

Just curious.......why are you mentioning cap hit?


http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...vs-non-exclusive-transition-difference/1w7mwh
What’s the deal with exclusive, non-exclusive and transition tags?
There are three types of tags: non-exclusive, exclusive and transition tags.

Non-exclusive tags are most commonly used. It means a team will pay the tagged player no less than the average of the five highest salaries at the player’s position, or 120 percent of the player’s cap number from the previous season, whichever is greater. The player is allowed to negotiate with other teams, but his current team can match any offer sheet. If a player's current team declines to match another team's offer, it will be awarded two first-round draft picks as compensation

Because a franchise tag is a one year contract which equals the cap hit the team would have to take under the tag.

It’s semantics. The tag = one year salary = cap hit.

 

[NumOneQB]

LOL @ those that think Jerruh is going to bring in competition next year and not extend Dak. He’s going to extend Dak and he’s going to pay $20mil+ per year.