News: PJM: For the Cowboys and Dak Prescott, the Metrics No Longer Make a Lick of Sense

[America's Cowboy]

I prefer a restart. Anything's better than this "close to nowhere" kind of state this team has been living in. Guys like you have become so accustomed to it that you really celebrate stuff like runner up MVP nonsense. Talking about mental...

Mentally toughen up. If you're going to talk smack about me, be man enough to reply to my comment to you. Posting separately is not a good look.

A restart would take years of reaching the playoffs. With this team management's bad history of struggling to draft a franchise QB in early rounds, it would likely set this team back even further. All to appease mentally weak fans like yourself. What a joke.

 

[America's Cowboy]

I hate the narrative that he loses in the playoffs..

He's lost every single difficult game.
for the past three seasons. He's had the luxury of a defense that allows under 20 points a game and has led the NFL in scoring. The luxury of a defense that delivers turnovers with great field position for him.
He's has had stout OLs, some of the best weapons at receiver, and top TEs and some of the best minds in the NFL constantly designing plays to get people open early. Pollard pre injury who could take it to the house from anywhere.

This year will be different, we'll go .500 in division at best and the rest of the schedule could be worse.
Dak should come to the realization soon he needs to seek a trade to a place who will give him a multi year deal NOW before he attempts to play here this season. When he preforms badly the fans will boo, the team will turn on him as well, and his value will plummet.

This team is going to be much better than a .500 team with this new, young and stronger Oline. With a veteran QB, a veteran WR, a bevvy of mixed RB talent, a young stud TE and a newly rebuilt and much stronger Oline, along with a smarter and tougher coached Defense, this team has a good chance to make the playoffs and make some noise if they stay healthy.

 

[DandyDon52]

I hate the narrative that he loses in the playoffs..

He's lost every single difficult game.
for the past three seasons. He's had the luxury of a defense that allows under 20 points a game and has led the NFL in scoring. The luxury of a defense that delivers turnovers with great field position for him.
He's has had stout OLs, some of the best weapons at receiver, top TEs, and some of the best minds in the NFL constantly designing plays to get people open early. Pollard pre injury who could take it to the house from anywhere.

This year will be different, we'll go .500 in division at best and the rest of the schedule could be worse.
Dak should come to the realization soon he needs to seek a trade to a place who will give him a multi year deal NOW before he attempts to play here this season. When he preforms badly the fans will boo, the team will turn on him as well, and his value will plummet.

some of the best minds in the NFL constantly designing plays to get people open early.............have to disagree with this one.
The rest I agree with except how they/he do this season. You just never know.

 

[Streifenkarl]

Mentally toughen up. If you're going to talk smack about me, be man enough to reply to my comment to you. Posting separately is not a good look.

A restart would take years of reaching the playoffs. With this team management's bad history of struggling to draft a franchise QB in early rounds, it would likely set this team back even further. All to appease mentally weak fans like yourself. What a joke.

Haha what? I reply the way I want lol. I would have added the quote if someone slipped in between.

Jeez, you do have serious problems.

 

[Hoofbite]

I think that is the reason to keep him. It’s a bad idea to start over when we are so close.

close. lol

 

[America's Cowboy]

Haha what? I reply the way I want lol. I would have added the quote if someone slipped in between.

Jeez, you do have serious problems.

Weak. Weak idea. Quitters response.

 

[plymkr]

Okay I got a question for the group. I want to preface this by saying in no way shape or form am I trying to argue or start an argument. I actually want to know this and have a civil conversation about it. Ok with that being said.

I predict Monday or Tuesday Dak will sign an extension. Just a gut feeling I have. For me I’m not I’m not super excited about it because I’m in the camp that is ready to move from Dak. But let’s pretend my gut feeling is correct. I could live with a 55 APY, 5 year contract. I wouldn’t be jumping for joy but I wouldn’t be so mad that I take a break. I would be furious if he signed for 60-62 APY and 3 year contract.

My question to the group, especially to the sign Dak at all costs guys. What would you consider an acceptable contract? What number do you feel is too high? Example: would you be happy with Dak signing for 65 APY? Fish, who’s in idiot, said a NFL “insider” said Dak could get 70 APY next year. So my question is what contract parameters would be too much even for the guys that believe we should sign him?

 

[CowboyoWales]

Paying a very good player like he’s the league’s best player depletes your funds and wrecks your depth. It leaves you with a team that — when healthy — is certainly capable of a 12-win regular season, but once it gets to the playoffs, its holes and weak links are just too easy to exploit.​

This is not going to change whether we pay Dak or don't.

The front office is the problem, but we get caught up in making this player or that player the scapegoat. Complete teams have won Super Bowls with less than Dak,

These posts arent mutually exclusive. Indeed, the way Jerry GOT BEATEN UP in 2021 negotiation (without any guarantee in this eventuality).....is why we need a new GM (and QB).

Having Dak on a $60m 4 year contract is probably the going rate, however, Jerry probably feels he 'owed' something for:
a) giving him the money in 2021
b) giving him the NTC and no-FT,
c) 4 years, when everyone else was getting 5
d) giving him all that even though he was coming off a serious injury
e) restructuring the deal, through years 2022-24, to give Dak the team to compete
f) leaving himself with $40m od Dead Money in 2025

We wont get a better QB - agree, but there's a realisation that at the 4 @ $60 (+ $40m Dead), is probably undoable to get to where we want to get to.

The compromise, is to give a career ending contract, (ala Hurts) which would give a 2/3 year ALL-IN opportunity (then a couple of year oblivion).....doing this with a genuine (independent) GM would be icing on the cake. If Dak is playing for 4 years.....sorry move on, as we cant overcome his composure issues without heavy spending on a defense and complimentary running game.

 

[csirl]

To those fans who are using the 40m in dead money as a reason to keep Dak - can you provide any evidence of this approach working?

However there is recent evidence of taking the hit on dead money and moving on actually working e.g. Rams, Eagles and SF.

 

[visionary]

People clearly love drinking the Jones’ kool-aid. When has this organization ever spent $$$ even with a relatively cheap qb. They certainly didn’t do it in the Dak era.

What you are saying is probably true but even if they haven’t built the best team around Dak, that is not a reason to pay him above his ceiling. People are just waking up after the GB game but I said this before Daks last contract that the only thing worse than paying a good player elite money is paying a good QB elite money because it cripples you

 

[doomsday9084]

What matters is the cap hit.

If you look, guys like Lawrence signed a deal that allowed for a low cap hit for like 4 years. Then it gets ridiculous. By signing a long term deal, at least Lawrence gave his team a window.

Dak taking 4 or shorter year long deals affords the team no such flexibility.

I'm not huge Dak fan or hater. I would have no issue with a 8 year $460m deal or something that looks huge on paper but allows the team to have 4 years of low cap hits to put together a team around Dak.

A 3 or 4 year deal at over $55m is going to be such a huge pill to swallow that the team isn't going to be able to do much.

 

[csirl]

What matters is the cap hit.

If you look, guys like Lawrence signed a deal that allowed for a low cap hit for like 4 years. Then it gets ridiculous. By signing a long term deal, at least Lawrence gave his team a window.

Dak taking 4 or shorter year long deals affords the team no such flexibility.

I'm not huge Dak fan or hater. I would have no issue with a 8 year $460m deal or something that looks huge on paper but allows the team to have 4 years of low cap hits to put together a team around Dak.

A 3 or 4 year deal at over $55m is going to be such a huge pill to swallow that the team isn't going to be able to do much.

Dak's had some loaded teams in recent years - that experiment has already failed.

 

[Vtwin]

So what else is new. This is what, the 3rd time the metrics didn't make sense with Dak?

1st. Going against history and leaving your legit SB run in the hands of a rookie when you had fresh rested veteran who had been playing his best ball on the sidelines. The team was constructed for that veteran.

2nd. Paying him top dollar on the first contract.

Reminds of a great song from my youth... I got a song that ain't got no melody... You know the rest.

 

[Bagman]

Ok, so we let Dak walk.

We now have to eat $40 million on next year's cap for a player no longer with the team and we also have no viable replacement on the roster.

Whats the plan? The draft?

2025 is one of the worst drafts for QBs in some time, you basically got 3 guys that would even remotely be considered day 1 starters and even then they are not considered "elite". You got Deion's boy in Colorado, you got Ewers from my beloved Longhorns, and you got Beck from Georgia.............and with Dak playing this year, we are going to be too low anyways to get one of these guys without mortgaging the future moving up from the 20s to the top 5.

So, again, what is the plan? Lance? He is not ready and making him the starter could lead to a non-playoff season, something Jerry is totally against because he said the most important thing was for the Cowboys to be hanging around the rim. You are not hanging around the rim if you are a lottery team, so Jerry would not be signing off on a possible tank season.

So, whats the plan if we let Dak walk knowing that Lance is not ready and we are going to be picking too low in the draft to get one of the studs? You see, the decision to let Dak walk is not as easy as some make it out to be when you start considering the alternatives.

What's the plan if we SIGN Dak for 5 more years? What moves could we conceivably make to turn this team into a champion ? We are going to have an enormous chunk of the cap tied up in 3 guys.....who are already on the team. Who or what will be the additional improvements to take this team to the next level ?

 

[SultanOfSix]

Your spin on what Jimmy said is creative, I'll give you that.

He never said that the solution would be to let Dak (or any "good QB") walk.

In fact, he said it's a problem that the entire league is facing BECAUSE you need a good QB to win... which implies that the solution isn't nearly as simple as "let the guy walk!!"

Actual quote is below.



"The other thing is, he's got the quarterback situation with Dak Prescott, and I think the entire league's got a problem here because if you don't have a quality quarterback, you're not going to win right, everybody understands that,” Johnson said. “But the only thing is good quarterbacks are demanding great money and they're not great quarterbacks, they're not great players, but because their contract is up they're going to be the highest paid player at that position. This has kind of escalated here for the last couple of years because every owner is desperate and they understand they've got to have a quarterback, they've got to have a quality quarterback, and the quarterback money is taking too big of a piece of the pie as far as the salary cap.”

What’s the spin here?

Jimmy was asked a Dak related question and answered it without literally and straightforwardly saying it. He put it into a surrounding context of referring to a group of players instead of singling him out.

But the implication is quite clear: he thinks Dak is a good QB not a great one but is asking to be paid like he is a great one.

 

[big dog cowboy]

My question to the group, especially to the sign Dak at all costs guys. What would you consider an acceptable contract? What number do you feel is too high?

$30M a year. Anything more is too high. I don't care what he think he deserves. His track record is well established.

Put a clause in his new deal that he gets a new deal when he actually accomplishes something in January.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

That is an excellent point................whatever the cap hit is for the QB next year if Dak leaves, you have to add the additional $40 million to that since that is the dead money that would accelerate from all the restructures and void years in Dak's current contract.

So yea, lets say you sign a mid level QB in free agency to be a stop gap QB until you find a guy, that is going to run you around $30 million for anybody decent. Add Dak's $40 to that and you are sitting at $70 million cap charge for QB1 in 2025.

Again, let me be crystal clear, I am not opposed to moving on from Dak, but there needs to be a viable plan in place considering the financial implications as well as the viability of the replacement before such a decision is made.

Man really desperate stuff here. Saddling daks contract on the next qb....instead of Jerry or just cap.

 

[Dools29]

What proof is there the Jones would spend? They sure as heck didn’t when Dak was on his rookie deal.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

So go years without reaching the playoffs just to appease hurt feelings? That's the plan? Yuck.

Hard Pass

Hurt feelings? Yours? If dak leaves were in for years of losing? Nobody else can qb the Cowboys but dak?

You got some serious hurt going.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

What proof is there the Jones would spend? They sure as heck didn’t when Dak was on his rookie deal.

Jerry went out and got amari JUST fir dak. kept zeke. Some serious money.