CFZ Predictable: How the Zack Martin Holdout will end

[gimmesix]

The headlines I saw on some shows today had a curious change to them. Instead of looking for a “new deal” they said “restructure”.

Maybe it’s nothing, but maybe the Martin team has walked demands back a bit.

I think it's always been restructure. He has $13 million in non-guaranteed base next year. That's the starting point.

Frankly, I think they do a restructure/extension and add two years on to his deal. They turn $10 million of that base into a signing bonus, which means Martin gets more money this year while the deal actually lowers his projected cap hit over the next two years by $5 million (so a win for both sides). The hard thing would be figuring out 2025 and 2026 since he's already projected to cost $9 million in 2025 due to bonus carryover even though it's a void year. With the $2.5 million in bonus (from my projected deal), that goes to $11.5 million without any base. What I would probably do is add a hefty non-guaranteed base to that with plans to turn it into a bonus and extend the deal again in two years if he's still playing at a high level. To make it look good, the team could give him a very large nonguaranteed base for 2026, knowing that he'll never see that ... he'll either be cut by then or restructured.

That may not be palatable to Martin's side, but it's what I would offer.

 

[ESisback]

Can’t we “follow the blueprint” of Cincy? A one year extension loaded with incentives for their OG?

 

[Bobhaze]

I think it's always been restructure. He has $13 million in non-guaranteed base next year. That's the starting point.

Frankly, I think they do a restructure/extension and add two years on to his deal. They turn $10 million of that base into a signing bonus, which means Martin gets more money this year while the deal actually lowers his projected cap hit over the next two years by $5 million (so a win for both sides). The hard thing would be figuring out 2025 and 2026 since he's already projected to cost $9 million in 2025 due to bonus carryover even though it's a void year. With the $2.5 million in bonus (from my projected deal), that goes to $11.5 million without any base. What I would probably do is add a hefty non-guaranteed base to that with plans to turn it into a bonus and extend the deal again in two years if he's still playing at a high level. To make it look good, the team could give him a very large nonguaranteed base for 2026, knowing that he'll never see that ... he'll either be cut by then or restructured.

That may not be palatable to Martin's side, but it's what I would offer.

The bottom line is Martin will get a better deal. In structure, guarantees, etc. I don’t know what the particulars will be but I am certain Zack Martin will be starting vs the midgets on Sept 11, 2023 on opening night…with some kind of new deal for more guaranteed money.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

I sure hope not, Bob.
We have a lot of young talent to pay.
Of course we are talking Jerry here.
Wish we had a real GM.
Sigh...

Yep,,, some of the CAP pie is shifting over to the defense now,,, and it's about time!

 

[AbeBeta]

I think it's always been restructure. He has $13 million in non-guaranteed base next year. That's the starting point.

Frankly, I think they do a restructure/extension and add two years on to his deal. They turn $10 million of that base into a signing bonus, which means Martin gets more money this year while the deal actually lowers his projected cap hit over the next two years by $5 million (so a win for both sides). The hard thing would be figuring out 2025 and 2026 since he's already projected to cost $9 million in 2025 due to bonus carryover even though it's a void year. With the $2.5 million in bonus (from my projected deal), that goes to $11.5 million without any base. What I would probably do is add a hefty non-guaranteed base to that with plans to turn it into a bonus and extend the deal again in two years if he's still playing at a high level. To make it look good, the team could give him a very large nonguaranteed base for 2026, knowing that he'll never see that ... he'll either be cut by then or restructured.

That may not be palatable to Martin's side, but it's what I would offer.

That's not a restructure. It changes the terms rather than moves them around.

Zack is gonna want a decent raise (which likely happens via a signing bonus) and at least 2 more guaranteed years. His contract is structured to basically trigger that next year. Zack is coming off two straight 1st team AP All Pro seasons. It makes a ton of sense for him to hold out now and not risk an injury that would reduce his value later.

 

[AbeBeta]

Yep,,, some of the CAP pie is shifting over to the defense now,,, and it's about time!

Lol. People don't know how pie is made.

Here is a secret, kid. Any franchise that can pay the bills and not stress it (e.g., not the Raiders ... ) can make the cap work. The only teams the cap hinders are those who do not have the capital to finance deals up front or make the sort of restructures that a sudden 15 mill requires. The Cowboys are not one of those teams hindered.

 

[KingCorcoran]

History often repeats itself….

Jerry Jones has said repeatedly that he’s not giving in to Zack Martin’s holdout. He even said last week that he “needs extra cash to pay Micah Parsons” and has taken a “hard stance” on this. Don’t believe any of it.

Anyone remember what was happening in August of 2019? Here are some headlines in newspapers 4 years ago…almost exactly:

• ”Ezekiel Elliott could miss multiple regular season games, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says”- Wash Post, Aug. 30, 2019.
• “Jerry Jones on Zeke’s holdout: ‘It’s a marathon’“. https://heavy.com/sports/2019/08/cowboys-zeke-elliott-holdout-jerry-jones/ Aug 25, 2019.
• “Jerry Jones says he expects Ezekiel Elliott's holdout to last into the regular season, and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight”. https://www.businessinsider.com/eze...jerry-jones-cowboys-contract-extension-2019-8 Aug, 2019
• AND THEN….”Ezekiel Elliot is the highest-paid running back in the NFL”. https://www.businessinsider.com/ezekiel-elliott-highest-paid-running-backs-nfl-2019-9 Sept. 4, 2019.

I expect this pattern to be followed with Zack Martin by early September. In fact, by Sept. 4th, 2023- one week before the season opener- there will likely be a press conference to announce Zack Martin’s contract extension. He will probably be the highest paid G in pro football.

History will repeat itself.

Smart people learn from their mistakes.

 

[KJJ]

I’m sure there has been a big Cowboys star who held out that Jerry never caved to…I just can’t think of any.

These days Jerry has some huge contracts coming up, and he just paid Trevon Diggs. He’s got Dak, CeeDee and Parsons extension will absolutely break the bank. I believe this will end with Zack swallowing his pride and coming back.

 

[Starforever]

Go ahead and send him to KC for Chris Jones. Pay Jones and let the JAGS hold down the oline. Let the chaos ensue.

 

[T-RO]

His contract will be inflated to cover all the fines adding up.

It'll have to be if Zack is playing hardball.

 

[AbeBeta]

Smart people learn from their mistakes.

True.

But that is not relevant here.

 

[buybuydandavis]

- What will further help Martin's cause is the suspect lack of depth at OG that is showing itself in camp. ( Edoga, Farniok, Watlesko, Richards)

New that was coming last year, and they did squat to change that.

Could have easily taken 2 interior oline in the draft and not been overdoing it.

 

[plasticman]

No matter how he postures, the reality is Jerry wants a championship completely unrelated to Jimmy Johnson's involvement. More than anything else left to do in his life his life, he wants to be recognized as a real football executive. If he could buy that, no matter the price, he would pay.

There is no way he is going to risk the health and safety of his starting QB and RB to Ball and company. No way.

Jerry is not going to squander, possibly, the best opportunity left in his life to achieve that goal. Barring devastating injury, this team is locked and loaded. An offensive line typically sets the tone for an offense and Zack Martin must be on the field.

 

[GMO415]

Micah >Dak>Zack. Hence, Micah will be here when Dak and Zack are gone.

 

[T-RO]

That may not be palatable to Martin's side, but it's what I would offer.

If it's not palatable the offer never gets off the ground. Ergo, it's pointless chatter.

I initially wanted the Cowboys to play hard ball. The reality I've come to learn?

-Zack is quite in fact underpaid relative to his performance and his peers.​

-He really might be ready to sit out the season. He's massively wealthy and likely manages his money exceptionally well. He has Zero Need to play.​

-As the Cowboys have negligible depth on the line...Martin has Death Star leverage. No joke to say the season is in the balance.​

I don't like seeing money sucked off our available cap, but Zack is absolutely going to win this battle. He's Thor. Jerry is a Drunk.

 

[The Fonz]

Jerry is just a talk he will cave in and ihe does not he is a fool

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Jerry grabbed his ankles for lesser talent and ya he will be doing it again before week 1 setting another bad precedent for the team......................
Give him a couple of drinks and can you say Marshmello baby?
The Circus opens in Sept and by the way "one eye" Jerry is looking, expect the goofball mentality to reach new levels of stupidity that will ensure we waste another talent pool of fine players.

 

[John813]

Martin has no real incentive to end his holdout until the season starts.

From a cost perspective it's cheaper to end the holdout now, IMO

Every day he misses of TC, he's fined 50k. I think I read from articles from Chris Jones holdout and Martin the fines could hit 2.1mil if they miss all of TC.
Once the regular season starts, and let's say Martin is still out, he would be docked game checks. But since the Cowboys paid him 11.xmil in March when they restructured him, his weekly game checks are 1.7mil/18 weeks or 94k.
Losing 94k a week doesn't seem that bad when right now he's at 50k a day.

I'll be curious if Martin folds, and his fines reach close to his remaining base salary I'd assume they would just dock those fines out of his weekly check and he could be playing for literal peanuts.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

History often repeats itself….

Jerry Jones has said repeatedly that he’s not giving in to Zack Martin’s holdout. He even said last week that he “needs extra cash to pay Micah Parsons” and has taken a “hard stance” on this. Don’t believe any of it.

Anyone remember what was happening in August of 2019? Here are some headlines in newspapers 4 years ago…almost exactly:

• ”Ezekiel Elliott could miss multiple regular season games, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says”- Wash Post, Aug. 30, 2019.
• “Jerry Jones on Zeke’s holdout: ‘It’s a marathon’“. https://heavy.com/sports/2019/08/cowboys-zeke-elliott-holdout-jerry-jones/ Aug 25, 2019.
• “Jerry Jones says he expects Ezekiel Elliott's holdout to last into the regular season, and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight”. https://www.businessinsider.com/eze...jerry-jones-cowboys-contract-extension-2019-8 Aug, 2019
• AND THEN….”Ezekiel Elliot is the highest-paid running back in the NFL”. https://www.businessinsider.com/ezekiel-elliott-highest-paid-running-backs-nfl-2019-9 Sept. 4, 2019.

I expect this pattern to be followed with Zack Martin by early September. In fact, by Sept. 4th, 2023- one week before the season opener- there will likely be a press conference to announce Zack Martin’s contract extension. He will probably be the highest paid G in pro football.

History will repeat itself.

Likely you're right.
Too many people look at the NFL as different than most other businesses. But it is a business, first and foremost. And like any business, there are negotiation tactics.
Suffice it to say Jerry's taking a hardball approach at this point, that's just one negotiation tactic, of which there are many.

 

[Deionindahood]

Jerry will eventually give Martin what he wants. It's what Jerry does....