Prescott and Bryant, Prescott vs. top defenses

[Risen Star]

On what planet did Dak play "horrible" against Washington?

Earth.

They're not going to make the Commanders travel to another planet on a short week. Be real.

 

[visionary]

Great info Percy
Can you give us Daks stats in the games Dez missed? To address Toruks point?
I seem to recall he played very well in this'd games

 

[visionary]

Great info Percy
Can you give us Daks stars in the games Dez missed? To address Toruks point?
I seem to recall he played very well in this'd games

 

[percyhoward]

I certainly won't take your word for it.

NFL completion percentage
15+ yard throws: 41.3%
<15-yard throws: 69.2%

NFL yards per attempt
15+ yard throws: 11.9 ypa
<15-yard throws: 6.3 ypa

Why do NBA teams shoot 3-pointers?

 

[percyhoward]

Can you give us Daks stats in the games Dez missed? To address Toruks point?

It isn't "normal" for the passer rating on the targets to the #1 WR to be lower than it is to the other receivers. Since 2006, the only time it's happened is Owens' final year (2008) and Bryant this year.

To keep the defenses faced the same for all receivers, these are the numbers for only the games Dez has played.

Prescott 2016
to Bryant
38 of 80 644 yd 6 td 2 int 89.8

to everyone else
163 of 227 1776 yd 8 td 1 int 104.4

 

[CCBoy]

How is Dez's percentages affected by not getting 4-5 yards on first down, running the ball?

 

[JeffInDC]

Earth.

They're not going to make the Commanders travel to another planet on a short week. Be real.

17-24, for 195 yards and a TD plus 8 carries for 39 and another TD is only terrible if your name is NOT Carson Wentz I guess

 

[waving monkey]

`Whats sad to me is I can see the FO justifying a WR in the 1st round.

 

[Kaiser]

I expect those numbers to be lower than the "others" considering T.O. and Dez had the best coverage on them.

I am not saying that Dez does not have his concerns but comparing #1's to the field is useless.

Totally agree.

Pass attempt #1 is to Dez while Josh Norman covers him.

Pass attempt #2 is a dump off to Zeke.

Which of those two, over time, is going to result in a higher passer rating?

 

[Coy]

This is why this offense works much better without Dez on the field when Dak is our QB. Without Dez was when this offense was at its peak in efficiency. He bogs and slows everything down.

It can also be that we are playing better defenses of late and that maybe teams know a bit more of Dak than earlier in the season.

 

[DallasCowboys2080]

just came back through is part of our fan base still weak and fickle? or did we toughen up? are they still acting like we have weeden or matt cassell under center and we are 4-12? cliffnotes anyone?

 

[kramskoi]

It isn't "normal" for the passer rating on the targets to the #1 WR to be lower than it is to the other receivers. Since 2006, the only time it's happened is Owens' final year (2008) and Bryant this year.

To keep the defenses faced the same for all receivers, these are the numbers for only the games Dez has played.

Prescott 2016
to Bryant
38 of 80 644 yd 6 td 2 int 89.8

to everyone else
163 of 227 1776 yd 8 td 1 int 104.4

Why wouldn't Bryant receive higher level pass coverage than the others in this little thought experiment? And Romo isn't throwing to Bryant this year...Prescott is...AND the season isn't over yet. Moreover...the 2 INTs...one is the result of the receiver slipping and falling to the ground...and the other is a questionable ball thrown up toward a waiting safety in double coverage. Finally he's only been active for 10 of the 13 games. His catch rate is concerning (47.5%) but in 2014 he finished at about 64%...higher, but still under the 70 - 75% put up by Witten and Beasley. But it also must be acknowledged that Bryant has a higher yards-per-catch avg than either Witten or Beasley...meaning the ball is being pushed down the field more on throws to him. His ypc avg was 15 in 2014. It is currently 16.9 yds this year. I will say that since he lost three games this year due to injury, it is unlikely that his overall catch rate will even reach 60% over the final three games...chemistry with Prescott has been spotty...except for the four games leading up to the Giants, where he had actually performed better than Beckham over the same time span:

Note the ypc...which is very close to his current overall avg of 16.9 ypc.

Bryant...21 - 352 yds - 4 TDs (16.7 ypc)
Beckham...31 - 339 yds - 3 TDs (10.9 ypc)

 

[kramskoi]

Romo builds wide receivers. They should build a statue in his honor.

Miles Austin was nothing special at all. Romo made him seem like it.

Patrick Crayton was just a guy. Romo made him a multimillionaire in San Diego.

Laurent Robinson was a journeyman. Romo got him paid like Jerry Rice in Jacksonville.

Terrance Williams had better make sure he plays where Romo plays, or else he'll fall off the NFL map.

And Dez Bryant, who has some freakish abilities, isn't nearly as freakish when he doesn't have Romo throwing pin-point perfect balls in places he can get to. Dez is a poor route runner with limited speed. He prefers to line up in the same spot most every play. He's a one-trick pony, although that is a heckuva trick with the right QB. Dak hasn't yet figured out how to consistently use him.

Dez is catching less than 50% of the balls targeted for him. That is awful.

A one trick pony? Well that one trick pony played pretty well in 2014...I will let you figure out which of the two sets of figures below belong to Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant:

2014...88 of 136.....1320 yds...15 ypc......16 TD...64.7% catch rate
2014...98 of 151.....1519 yds...15.5 ypc...13 TD...64.9% catch rate

I wonder how good Nelson would look if he didn't have someone named Rodgers throwing to him...just a thought.

 

[ghst187]

Dak likes to throw what he sees right in front of him. That's Beasley and Witten over the middle. He's not very comfortable down field unless he can roll out of the pocket. Minnesota and New York were making very conscious efforts to keep him in the pocket, while covering the middle of the field.

So Dak is a lot like Russell wilson

 

[DallasCowboys2080]

ELEVEN AND TWO!!!!
QB changes? you kidding right?

 

[kramskoi]

ELEVEN AND TWO!!!!
QB changes? you kidding right?

Even a loss vs. Tampa would not cause Prescott to be yanked...but it will put the #1 seed and division in jeopardy should the Giants beat Detroit at home...putting Dallas in a position where it might need to win both of the last two games, with weather conditions in the last somewhat of a wildcard. Currently, 66% is sufficient to secure the yellow-brick road, but a loss will require 100% going forward, unless you want to be waiting on the outcome of NY vs. Washington in the final week.

 

[phildadon86]

Romo has also had since 2003-2007 to work some of this stuff out. it takes time. Dak is in his 1st year. However considering that Dak is having better success throwing to Beas, Witten, maybe Twill for some reason.

I think with another off season. Dez and dak will be just fine. If everyone here remembers correctly. Romo and Dez were meeting up one year before TC just to get their timing down. Dak and Dez should probably do the same thing.

 

[percyhoward]

Why wouldn't Bryant receive higher level pass coverage than the others? And Romo isn't throwing to Bryant this year...Prescott is...AND the season isn't over yet...

Again, we know that it isn't normal for the targets to a #1 WR (yes, the guy who draws the best coverage) to have a lower pass rating. It's not normal, and it's not desirable.

If you want numbers for a full season, wait three games. All I can tell you is how it stands right now. And right now, whomever we choose to blame, you don't want your passing to suffer where you have the most targets. Bad thing for your offense.

But it also must be acknowledged that Bryant has a higher yards-per-catch avg than either Witten or Beasley...meaning the ball is being pushed down the field more on throws to him.

This was already acknowledged in a much more specific way than ypc could tell you. As I posted in the OP, on the deeper throws Dez has 30 targets and all the other players combine for 37. But depth of target isn't an issue under 15 yards, where Bryant's targets have an 89.7 rating and everyone else's have a 102.9.

Dez's targets either need to yield better results, or there need to be fewer of them.

 

[Alexander]

At times, they might be better off just letting Bryant's game unfold organically. Just perception.

 

[erod]

A one trick pony? Well that one trick pony played pretty well in 2014...I will let you figure out which of the two sets of figures below belong to Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant:

2014...88 of 136.....1320 yds...15 ypc......16 TD...64.7% catch rate
2014...98 of 151.....1519 yds...15.5 ypc...13 TD...64.9% catch rate

I wonder how good Nelson would look if he didn't have someone named Rodgers throwing to him...just a thought.

With Romo....which was the whole point of my post.

Romo knows how to use that one trick.