Prescott vs NFL - Intermediate Throws

[Doomsday101]

Don't get me wrong Dooms. I agree with your take. But I also see the risks in a rookie QB (or any QB for that matter) routinely sustaining long drives without any mistakes. The fact that Dak hasn't thrown an INT is incredible. I also think D's crowding the line because they don't fear the deep ball with catch up to us sooner or later. Again, maybe all this is by design and the design is working because Dak is not turning the ball over. But I don't think he can make a living on being a bus driver, especially with our D.

I think he will take shots down the field, heck on every pass play there are more than 1 read and as long as Dak is going through his progressions and finding the open man then great. The only thing I don't want to see is him forcing passes. I don't think what Dak is doing is being a bus driver, the Cowboys want a balanced offense using the run and the pass. As I mentioned the Bears expected to see Cole run the slant well surprise he was wide open off the go rout. I don't think Dallas is afraid of throwing it deep or advising him not to go deep I think he is going where he finds the open man.

 

[percyhoward]

Rodgers is a big surprise on that list -- Rodgers 6 of 17 81 yd 4.8 ypa 1 td 1 int 46.4

Is he having an early downfall?

It's still only a 3-game sample, but also I think he's a guy who's more likely to throw it away when he sees something he doesn't really like. Looking at his numbers since the beginning of the 2014 season, he's got a completion percentage of only 45.4% on these throws.

118 of 260 2082 yd 16 td 5 int 85.8

 

[Trouty]

It's still only a 3-game sample, but also I think he's a guy who's more likely to throw it away when he sees something he doesn't really like. Looking at his numbers since the beginning of the 2014 season, he's got a completion percentage of only 45.4% on these throws.

118 of 260 2082 yd 16 td 5 int 85.8

Yeah, it's been a problem for some time. He has been throwing away a lot of passes, but before he would scramble and find his guy, on like his fourth progression, even if it was a shovel pass or small post etc... he's been getting hit a lot.

The TD:Int is nice, tho

 

[Alexander]

I think we will see more down field passes just as the Cowboys did with Beasley last game. I think Beasley taking off on a go rout surprised the Bears after seeing film of nothing but inside slants by Cole.

I would not make that a habit.

He does not have the deep speed to separate unless the DB is lazy or not expecting that. Plus if there is a high catch point on the pass, he's going to lose that battle too.

 

[Trouty]

I would not make that a habit.

He does not have the deep speed to separate unless the DB is lazy or not expecting that. Plus if there is a high catch point on the pass, he's going to lose that battle too.

He was getting swallowed up previous to last week's game on the deep route (albeit on press coverage, lining up on the outside). But last week's game was somewhat encouraging.

 

[percyhoward]

So the sole completion was that catch by Beasley? How long was the pass on that 47 yarder that Williams fumbled?

18 yards. Snap was from the 31, catch at the 49.

 

[Doomsday101]

I would not make that a habit.

He does not have the deep speed to separate unless the DB is lazy or not expecting that. Plus if there is a high catch point on the pass, he's going to lose that battle too.

Was not the 1st time Cole has ran a go rout. Vast majority of the time Cole is going to run the slant out the quick outs and as CB start moving up on it Cole has the quickness to turn it up field and if you can get 2 or 3 steps on a CB that is all you need to burn them.

 

[Trouty]

Was not the 1st time Cole has ran a go rout. Vast majority of the time Cole is going to run the slant out the quick outs and as CB start moving up on it Cole has the quickness to turn it up field and if you can get 2 or 3 steps on a CB that is all you need to burn them.

Just use his small frame and quickness to slip behind the back coverage (FS), like last week

Welker made a living doing it.

 

[percyhoward]

Yeah, it's been a problem for some time. He has been throwing away a lot of passes, but before he would scramble and find his guy, on like his fourth progression, even if it was a shovel pass or small post etc... he's been getting hit a lot.

The TD:Int is nice, tho

Good point. And yeah, that ratio gives you the impression he's not worried about running out of downs.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Garrett's offense is predicated on exploiting the intermediate passing game... Romo does not throw deep that often either.

Umm, Tony often leads the league in percent of passes over 20 yards: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

Tony at #1 with 13.6%
Teddy at #2 with 9.5%

So Tony throws deep VERY often, in fact, the most often.

 

[Trouty]

Umm, Tony often leads the league in percent of passes over 20 yards: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

Tony at #1 with 13.6%
Teddy at #2 with 9.5%

So Tony throws deep VERY often, in fact, the most often.

Thank you for this, Fastback. It needed to be said

Surprised to see Teddy at two, I know he airs it, but I would expect someone like Cam up there near the top

 

[Risen Star]

*not including Thur night game

If you don't include last night's game these stats mean nothing.

Prescott is only 1 of 8 for 28 yards on 20+ yard targets.

LOL. Embarrassing.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Thank you for this, Fastback. It needed to be said

Surprised to see Teddy at two, I know he airs it, but I would expect someone like Cam up there near the top

Drives me nuts...we have the internet and people still wanna toss out conjecture instead of spending the 10 seconds to find the facts lol

 

[perrykemp]

Rodgers is a big surprise on that list -- Rodgers 6 of 17 81 yd 4.8 ypa 1 td 1 int 46.4

Is he having an early downfall? I've seen many, many fans in Packerland worrying about that, as weird as it is to say. His play has steadily declined since about week 4 of last season. He did have 4 TDs last week which is great, but his numbers (yds/ypa) are still down (his ypa was over 8 last week, to be fair, but only ~200yds). And this is with Nelson back. I personally think he lost confidence in himself due to terrible line play for a time being, and his ad lib style just wasn't working. His last game was very efficient, so most likely it's premature. But there's a lot of discussion going on about this very fact.

Dak third overall in YPA, and only .2 behind Eli! Love that nice 130.6 QB rating, too. Wentz's ypa is unreal. Thanks for the awesomeness, Percy

Before last week there was an interesting comparison being made where Rodgers's QB rating was worse than Blane Gabbert's over the previous 16 games.

He obviously been in the worst rut of his career, the Lions game this past Sunday not-with-standing.

His poor play has been somewhat obfuscated by the unworldly occasional plays he has made during that time period -- 2-3 successful Hail Marys, this incredible play from last week / etc:

Aaron Rodgers made one of the greatest throws in NFL history and nobody noticed

Hard to say what the heck is going on with him, but he hasn't been the same guy but a long shot.

 

[noshame]

thanks Percy

 

[Risen Star]

Before last week there was an interesting comparison being made where Rodgers's QB rating was worse than Blane Gabbert's over the previous 16 games.

He obviously been in the worst rut of his career, the Lions game this past Sunday not-with-standing.

His poor play has been somewhat obfuscated by the unworldly occasional plays he has made during that time period -- 2-3 successful Hail Marys, this incredible play from week / etc:

Aaron Rodgers made one of the greatest throws in NFL history and nobody noticed

Hard to say what the heck is going on with him, but he hasn't been the same guy but a long shot.

Olivia Munn would distract me too.

Just get this game over with. I want to go home.

 

[Trouty]

Olivia Munn would distract me too.

Just get this game over with. I want to go home.

There's Packer fans that are actually blaming her lol

And his brother going on that reality show. They have the pitchforks out right now, even wanting to can McCarthy

 

[Hawkeye19]

Umm, Tony often leads the league in percent of passes over 20 yards: https://www.profootballfocus.com/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

Tony at #1 with 13.6%
Teddy at #2 with 9.5%

So Tony throws deep VERY often, in fact, the most often.

Actually-- here is what the article says about the category where Tony ranks #1:

"The 21-30 yard range is essentially the border between an intermediate and a deep pass,"

So, I guess it depends on how you choose to define "deep pass". IMO-- the 21-30 yard range is still within the intermediate passing game, b/c the article goes on to measure 2 additional deep passing categories-- 31-40 yards and 40+ yards. Tony's numbers start to decline after 30+ yards.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Actually-- here is what the article says about the category where Tony ranks #1:

"The 21-30 yard range is essentially the border between an intermediate and a deep pass,"

So, I guess it depends on how you choose to define "deep pass". IMO-- the 21-30 yard range is still within the intermediate passing game, b/c the article goes on to measure 2 additional deep passing categories-- 31-40 yards and 40+ yards. Tony's numbers start to decline after 30+ yards.

Did you read the OP? 20+ yards.

Further, 40+ yards Tony is 5th @ 3.3% with Drew Stanton #1 @ 5.6%

So 1st in 20+ and 5th in 40+

AKA Throws a butt ton of deep balls.

 

[Hawkeye19]

Did you read the OP? 20+ yards.

Further, 40+ yards Tony is 5th @ 3.3% with Drew Stanton #1 @ 5.6%

So 1st in 20+ and 5th in 40+

AKA Throws a butt ton of deep balls.

OK-- so he's 1st in 21-30 (still rated as an intermediate pass by the article), 29th in 31-40, and 5th in 40+. Don't leave that out lol.

The point of the OP was to say that Dak should throw and complete more 20+ passes. My point is simply saying that JG's offense is focused on the intermediate game, and Tony's numbers between 21-30 yards bear that out.

My guess would be that as Dak matures as a passer and defenses have to back off a bit on the running game-- his numbers of 20+ passes will go up as a result. I would still think that Garrett would have him focused on higher percentage passes under 30 yards, as that is the bread and butter of this offense.