Prescott's Pressured Dropbacks, 2016-17

[Trouty]

5:10 on the video. Witten breaks into the middle and no one goes with him. The safety to his left does start following Dak's eyes to the left, but Witten is wide open.

Thank you for this. The LB is breaking for Witt (to the LB's right) before Dak dumped it off.

 

[Trouty]

I could make the throw to Witten and Wagner would have not intercepted me. Just go look at the replay........

Oh I'm sure you could, champ.

I did. The LB was breaking right before he committed to Zeke.

 

[Bleu Star]

Here's every full game of his career so far, with the number representing the percentage of dropbacks on which he was pressured (hurried, hit as thrown, or sacked) in that game. About 33% is normal.

2016
29 NYG
37 at WAS
37 CHI
39 at SF
26 CIN
21 at GB
52 PHI
24 at CLE
35 at PIT
31 BAL
39 WAS
52 at MIN
48 at NYG
29 TB
28 DET
31 GB

2017
23 NYG
40 at DEN
37 at ARI
44 LAR
23 GB
27 at SF
40 at WAS
31 KC
45 at ATL
46 PHI
41 LAC
33 WAS
21 at NYG
42 at OAK
49 SEA

W-L by pressured %
< 40% 17-3 (.850)
≥ 40% 4-7 (.364)

in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
413 of 600 (68.8%) 4932 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.7
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
208 of 352 (59.1%) 2119 yd (6.0 ypa) 9 td 15 int 67.2

You would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, but Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he gets a lot of pressure, even when he's not pressured on that particular play. Especially (but not only) in 2017.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET only
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 222 of 288 (77.1%) 2636 yd (9.2 ypa) 17 td 1 int 122.6
2017 106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0
career 328 of 440 (74.5%) 3842 yd (8.7 ypa) 30 td 2 int 121.4

in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0
career 145 of 219 (66.2%) 1347 yd (6.2 ypa) 8 td 10 int 76.0

Keep in mind that there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, because a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations which usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

Brilliant!

 

[wileedog]

Thank you for this. The LB is breaking for Witt (to the LB's right) before Dak dumped it off.

Stop dude. If Dak can't make that completion to a guy that open he has no business being in the NFL.

 

[Bleu Star]

Thanks Percy now add that to routes and receivers that take forever to open up and Wallah

Trainwreck

Yes indeedee

 

[Bleu Star]

Stop dude. If Dak can't make that completion to a guy that open he has no business being in the NFL.

Lol. You guys. Amusing...

 

[wileedog]

Oh I'm sure you could, champ.

I did. The LB was breaking right before he committed to Zeke.

Look, I could probably find you 100 videos of Romo missing open guys - it obviously happens. But it is a known issue with Dak and it has gotten really bad the 2nd half of this season.

 

[aikemirv]

Oh I'm sure you could, champ.

I did. The LB was breaking right before he committed to Zeke.

No, I suck throwing the ball, but if you are claiming Witten is not wide open then I really don't know what to say to you!

 

[Trouty]

Stop dude. If Dak can't make that completion to a guy that open he has no business being in the NFL.

I'm not gonna stop, mon frère. If Dak can't make the completion, little dump off to Zeke, that's a problem. But that's not what you're arguing, buddy boy.

Him not hitting Witt when there's a rover hovering the middle of the field is not earth shattering. Watch your own damned tape.

 

[Trouty]

Look, I could probably find you 100 videos of Romo missing open guys - it obviously happens. But it is a known issue with Dak and it has gotten really bad the 2nd half of this season.

This I 100% agree with. Dak's second season was very troubling.

 

[Bleu Star]

I'm not gonna stop, mon frère. If Dak can't make the completion, little dump off to Zeke, that's a problem. But that's not what you're arguing, buddy boy.

Him not hitting Witt when there's a rover hovering the middle of the field is not earth shattering. Watch your own damned tape.

Hahaahhh

 

[Trouty]

No, I suck throwing the ball, but if you are claiming Witten is not wide open then I really don't know what to say to you!

The passing lane to Witt was shadowed (by, I assume, Wagner). Dak has made some awful throws this year, but why you guys are so dug in on some turdy still is beyond me. Especially when said still, and then the video, show Wagner (?) only break once the ball is passed.

 

[ROUSH8692]

Dak and Dunk. No surprise here. He has only won against one team this season with a winning record......

 

[jwooten15]

Nope, You can watch the whole replay on NFL Network. Witten is wide open from his break and Dak is staring him down and just looks away. I just watched every frame. It is not even close and you can see Dak looking at him.

Then why the heck did he ever look away??
It's infuriating haha.

 

[wileedog]

Him not hitting Witt when there's a rover hovering the middle of the field is not earth shattering. Watch your own damned tape.

If he's not even going to attempt that throw because there is a "rover hovering" 10 yards away from him then Dak is not going to have a very long career. Period.

 

[Bleu Star]

Dak's 3rd season will be a stellar improvement over #2 if:

Dez is gone

An OC that uses quicker developing routes is brought in (or Linehan is lobotomized)

Our OL depth doesn't resemble that of your nearest HS

Witten goes ahead and calls it a great career

And so on...

 

[aikemirv]

The passing lane to Witt was shadowed (by, I assume, Wagner). Dak has made some awful throws this year, but why you guys are so dug in on some turdy still is beyond me. Especially when said still, and then the video, show Wagner (?) only break once the ball is passed.

Listen, Dak looked right and the CB jumped, He then quickly looked middle and at that time Witten was almost 10 yards right of Wagner and 5 yards deeper. The fact of the matter is Dak is not looking downfield and this play is the PRIME example of that and that is why I am focusing on it. It is why we lost Sunday - because he would not look downfield and kept throwing 5 yard passes.

 

[jwooten15]

After re-watching the video, most of you guys are right.. Witten was insanely open. The LB was too shallow to ever make a play on the throw and the DB was 15 yards away, shadowing Dez.

Why would Dak not pull the trigger there? Especially since it's obvious he saw Witten.

I think while being pressured in the pocked, Dak just goes into panic mode and his instinct only allows him to see <5 yards down the field.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

We run too many curls and hitches. The WR's don't get open in part because the scheme is stupid and predictable. We rarely fool defenses and we don't force safeties into making decisions enough. Get the safety to take one false step and then one receiver will get open. You're not making false steps as a safety on curls and hitches.

That's not to say WR's never get open and Dak never misses them. But when I go thru All-22 I see more times when nobody is even close to getting open as the defense knows exactly where the ball is going than times when WR's are open or about to get open if Dak anticipates the throw.

The deep pass that Dez caught against Seattle was a great example. We went with 22 personnel and Seattle knew we were likely going play action. So they stacked 9 in the box and had the corner and Earl Thomas double Dez. You could do something else on that play if you have a fast TE or fullback that can catch. But we have neither and everybody should know where that play is going. Dak has nobody to throw to and then makes a ridiculous throw topped off by Dez's ridiculous catch.

It's a poor scheme that does not attack today's modern schemes combined with a limited amount of plays we run. When you have a healthy O-Line of Tyron, Leary, Fred, Martin and Free along with Dez and Elliott and Beasley...they'll make bad schemes and predictable playcalling look good. But when teams have a year to prepare for it and the team isn't healthy, it gets devoured.





YR

 

[AzorAhai]

Witten about to break wide open here

Where the LB in discussion is before the ball is thrown relative to where Witten ended up. From the time he got past those DBs he was open. Period. If a QB can’t make that throw, he has no business playing in the NFL. Say he missed it, fine. Don’t bs while trying to make excuses.