Prescott's Pressured Dropbacks, 2016-17

[BobSacamano]

Dak holds the ball too long.

I dont think our WRs are getting open either. OLine had some bad games. I want to believe Dak is a franchise guy but he hasnt been close since Zeke's suspension. Seattle was an embarrassment.

So much blame to go around on an offense that was supposed to be elite. Frustrating.

Yeah, you want to point to outside influences, but then you see Dak throw up a pass while hopping on one foot. All around it just wasn't there in the passing game this year. From bad receiver routes, to leaky pass protection and regressed mechanics/unable to see the field. Recipe for disaster. This team isn't built for a QB. It's built for the QB to follow on the heels of the running game. And we all saw what happens when the opposing D can key in on that and keep the rushing damage to a minimum.

 

[Kevinicus]

Oh I'm sure you could, champ.

I did. The LB was breaking right before he committed to Zeke.

Right or left it doesn't matter. He wasn't breaking backwards. He has no shot at backpedaling to break up a pass to Witten unless it is a terrible throw (entirely possible). Witten is 6 yards behind him and he isn't facing back towards the line of scrimmage. That is easy pitch and catch.

 

[Kevinicus]

Witten about to break wide open here

Where the LB in discussion is before the ball is thrown relative to where Witten ended up. From the time he got past those DBs he was open. Period. If a QB can’t make that throw, he has no business playing in the NFL. Say he missed it, fine. Don’t bs while trying to make excuses.

That first pic is when he should have been firing a pass over Beasely's head for a huge gain. Hit Witten in stride with the safety moving the other direction and everyone else facing back towards the line. Possibly gets inside the 20.

 

[sean10mm]

You can find blown reads by any QB. Going over 1 play like it's the Zapruder Film is sort of silly.

The truth is that the Cowboys offense has many problems, and sometimes it's hard to see where one ends and one begins.

1. The receivers are mostly not very good. Witten is reliable but painfully slow. Williams and Beasley are career role players. Dez can't win the 50/50 jump balls anymore, but runs his mouth like he still can.
2. The offensive line has zero depth. One guy going out - even one as good as Smith- shouldn't cause your pass protection to implode to the point where you give up 12 sacks in 2 games. They can't survive any starters going out on the line without it turning into a catastrophe.
3. The offense is antiquated. You can practically hear Romo start to salivate when he breaks down plays that he never got to run himself in Dallas. He won't say "I wish we ran that play!" because he's too classy, but sometimes that subtext is so loud that it's deafening.
4. Dak is undoubtedly playing worse. How much of it is all the other stuff affecting him, and how much is just him backsliding, is debatable. But he's got that bad combination going where he's both making too many mistakes AND being too cautious.

 

[calicowboy54]

Here's every full game of his career so far, with the number representing the percentage of dropbacks on which he was pressured (hurried, hit as thrown, or sacked) in that game. About 33% is normal.

2016
29 NYG
37 at WAS
37 CHI
39 at SF
26 CIN
21 at GB
52 PHI
24 at CLE
35 at PIT
31 BAL
39 WAS
52 at MIN
48 at NYG
29 TB
28 DET
31 GB

2017
23 NYG
40 at DEN
37 at ARI
44 LAR
23 GB
27 at SF
40 at WAS
31 KC
45 at ATL
46 PHI
41 LAC
33 WAS
21 at NYG
42 at OAK
49 SEA

W-L by pressured %
< 40% 17-3 (.850)
≥ 40% 4-7 (.364)

in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
413 of 600 (68.8%) 4932 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.7
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
208 of 352 (59.1%) 2119 yd (6.0 ypa) 9 td 15 int 67.2

You would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, but Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he gets a lot of pressure, even when he's not pressured on that particular play. Especially (but not only) in 2017.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET only
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 222 of 288 (77.1%) 2636 yd (9.2 ypa) 17 td 1 int 122.6
2017 106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0
career 328 of 440 (74.5%) 3842 yd (8.7 ypa) 30 td 2 int 121.4

in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0
career 145 of 219 (66.2%) 1347 yd (6.2 ypa) 8 td 10 int 76.0

Keep in mind that there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, because a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations which usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

what are the same Metric's for Rodgers or Brady?

 

[Captain43Crash]

I always wonder about our "great OL" in this regard. Can't put all of this on Tyron's injury....

If any thing this shows our O line’s pass blocking has been extremely over rated the past 2 years. This is not an elite pass blocking O line and when Tyrone is out( Atlanta, Seattle) it is down right lousy. Jerry and company need to be careful about over paying their O lineman. Why? The O line is only as good as its weakest link. We might be better served paying for competent backups on the O line. Let’s have 3 All Pros on the O line and scrubs as backups. How well did that workout this year? Garrett is the main problem!! Pass it on.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

tony played with a worse rb and oline his entire career...no excuses. dude either needs to man up or get cut.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Sure theyre not.......


https://i.*******/jtezdfhkk5601.jpg

Always hard to tell stuff from stills. But Dak dating back to last year has routinely missed guys open downfield.

 

[ROUSH8692]

Always hard to tell stuff from stills. But Dak dating back to last year has routinely missed guys open downfield.

From last year and this year, there are more than 40 stills showing the same thing lol

 

[Captain43Crash]

You can find blown reads by any QB. Going over 1 play like it's the Zapruder Film is sort of silly.

The truth is that the Cowboys offense has many problems, and sometimes it's hard to see where one ends and one begins.

1. The receivers are mostly not very good. Witten is reliable but painfully slow. Williams and Beasley are career role players. Dez can't win the 50/50 jump balls anymore, but runs his mouth like he still can.
2. The offensive line has zero depth. One guy going out - even one as good as Smith- shouldn't cause your pass protection to implode to the point where you give up 12 sacks in 2 games. They can't survive any starters going out on the line without it turning into a catastrophe.
3. The offense is antiquated. You can practically hear Romo start to salivate when he breaks down plays that he never got to run himself in Dallas. He won't say "I wish we ran that play!" because he's too classy, but sometimes that subtext is so loud that it's deafening.
4. Dak is undoubtedly playing worse. How much of it is all the other stuff affecting him, and how much is just him backsliding, is debatable. But he's got that bad combination going where he's both making too many mistakes AND being too cautious.

Excellent analysis. Our #1 problem is Garrett though. We will never sniff a Super Bowl with Garrett. Every year with Garrett we find new and ridiculous ways to lose games. At the end of the year when the well coached teams rise to the top, we fall on our faces because of Garrett’s basic game plans, lack of in game adjustments, and terrible clock management.

 

[wileedog]

You can find blown reads by any QB. Going over 1 play like it's the Zapruder Film is sort of silly

No question, but the point is though it may not be just a "missed read." Since the Atlanta debacle in particular Dak has given up on looking downfield far too often.

He's not even under much pressure on that play, yet he still wound up checking down.

And I don't buy the WRs aren't getting open argument. Dez may have lost a step, but Witten certainly isn't any slower than last year (because that isn't possible) and no one was saying that about him in 2016. Beasely and T-Will are who they are, and there were no complaints about them getting open last year.

Its a better possibility that the problem this year is that the league has figured out you can rattle Dak with enough pressure. Or maybe that Atlanta game just really did shake him.

 

[birdwells1]

After re-watching the video, most of you guys are right.. Witten was insanely open. The LB was too shallow to ever make a play on the throw and the DB was 15 yards away, shadowing Dez.

Why would Dak not pull the trigger there? Especially since it's obvious he saw Witten.

I think while being pressured in the pocked, Dak just goes into panic mode and his instinct only allows him to see <5 yards down the field.

Young QB not thrusting what he's seeing. On the play that ended up with an int in the Raiders game, a lot of posters were blaming Dez but a poster pointed out that Dez was settling in the zone but Dak thought it was man covered. That's why last year Beasley and Witten were his favorite receivers because the roads were easy.

 

[fifaguy]

If any thing this shows our O line’s pass blocking has been extremely over rated the past 2 years. This is not an elite pass blocking O line and when Tyrone is out( Atlanta, Seattle) it is down right lousy. Jerry and company need to be careful about over paying their O lineman. Why? The O line is only as good as its weakest link. We might be better served paying for competent backups on the O line. Let’s have 3 All Pros on the O line and scrubs as backups. How well did that workout this year? Garrett is the main problem!! Pass it on.

over-rated seems to be the operative word for the Cowboys generally. I have great memories of the many years when they lived up to the hype far more often than not...

 

[percyhoward]

Again, that photo is bull shyte in attempting to show Dak missing a "wide open" receiver. It's a still taken after Dak made the throw.

The Mike is breaking on the ball to get to the receiver. If Dak throws it in the middle, that LB probably makes a play

Forget the arrow and circle, and focus on the flat-footed overthrow. Seattle pressured him on 49% of his dropbacks in that game, which is the highest of the year. I think that pic illustrates how Dak tends to allow defenses to take him out of his game, even on plays like this one when he isn't pressured.

 

[percyhoward]

Then why the heck did he ever look away??
It's infuriating haha.

Based on the numbers, he gets rattled when he's been knocked around a few times. It makes him do things he wouldn't normally do, even when pressure isn't a direct factor. As DLaw said from the bench during the 2nd Skins game, "Dak tired of gettin' hit."

 

[percyhoward]

Listen, Dak looked right and the CB jumped, He then quickly looked middle and at that time Witten was almost 10 yards right of Wagner and 5 yards deeper. The fact of the matter is Dak is not looking downfield and this play is the PRIME example of that and that is why I am focusing on it. It is why we lost Sunday - because he would not look downfield and kept throwing 5 yard passes.

It's typical of how he's responded this season in a clean pocket during games in which he's pressured often. Take the short, "safe" throw.

From clean pocket, in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0

Notice how the completion percentage is way up and YPA is way down.

 

[aikemirv]

It's typical of how he's responded this season in a clean pocket during games in which he's pressured often. Take the short, "safe" throw.

From clean pocket, in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0

Notice how the completion percentage is way up and YPA is way down.

I agree and to me it's not like he can't be successful throwing down the field. He can, we have seen him do it. But if he is too afraid to make mistakes, he will never be successful. He has not been right all year. His pocket presence has nver, all year been near what it was last year. I don't understand how you.lose that in the offseason....

 

[jwooten15]

Based on the numbers, he gets rattled when he's been knocked around a few times. It makes him do things he wouldn't normally do, even when pressure isn't a direct factor. As DLaw said from the bench during the 2nd Skins game, "Dak tired of gettin' hit."

Just curious, what's your background in football, man? You come up with some really informative stats

 

[percyhoward]

Would this pressure get to him this often if he was better at reading the defenses and reacting or is this just a factor of our offensive line not doing a good enough job protecting Dak..

As mentioned recently by Sturm, Dak has been excellent vs. the blitz throughout his career.

Against teams that can generate a pass rush without resorting to the blitz, that's when he has struggled.

 

[percyhoward]

I agree and to me it's not like he can't be successful throwing down the field. He can, we have seen him do it. But if he is too afraid to make mistakes, he will never be successful. He has not been right all year. His pocket presence has nver, all year been near what it was last year. I don't understand how you.lose that in the offseason....

I don't think it's anything that was lost in the offseason. From a clean pocket in games when he's pressured more than 40% of the time, his passer rating is similar to what it was last year. The difference this year is he's had 8 such games already, after having only 3 last year.