Prescott's Pressured Dropbacks, 2016-17

[percyhoward]

Just curious, what's your background in football, man? You come up with some really informative stats

Thanks. I didn't play past 8th grade, LOL.

Just seems like there's always more information than there are people who know what to do with it. For example, back in 2010, nobody was looking at passer rating on receivers targeted, even though all the data was available to do so.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

As mentioned recently by Sturm, Dak has been excellent vs. the blitz throughout his career.

Against teams that can generate a pass rush without resorting to the blitz, that's when he has struggled.

Sturm also mentioned Seattle blitzed him quite a bit and had success. Think it was a one-time anomaly?

 

[DFWJC]

Sure theyre not.......


https://i.*******/jtezdfhkk5601.jpg

Wow

 

[DFWJC]

Here's every full game of his career so far, with the number representing the percentage of dropbacks on which he was pressured (hurried, hit as thrown, or sacked) in that game. About 33% is normal.

2016
29 NYG
37 at WAS
37 CHI
39 at SF
26 CIN
21 at GB
52 PHI
24 at CLE
35 at PIT
31 BAL
39 WAS
52 at MIN
48 at NYG
29 TB
28 DET
31 GB

2017
23 NYG
40 at DEN
37 at ARI
44 LAR
23 GB
27 at SF
40 at WAS
31 KC
45 at ATL
46 PHI
41 LAC
33 WAS
21 at NYG
42 at OAK
49 SEA

W-L by pressured %
< 40% 17-3 (.850)
≥ 40% 4-7 (.364)

in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
413 of 600 (68.8%) 4932 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.7
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
208 of 352 (59.1%) 2119 yd (6.0 ypa) 9 td 15 int 67.2

You would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, but Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he gets a lot of pressure, even when he's not pressured on that particular play. Especially (but not only) in 2017.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET only
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 222 of 288 (77.1%) 2636 yd (9.2 ypa) 17 td 1 int 122.6
2017 106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0
career 328 of 440 (74.5%) 3842 yd (8.7 ypa) 30 td 2 int 121.4

in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0
career 145 of 219 (66.2%) 1347 yd (6.2 ypa) 8 td 10 int 76.0

Keep in mind that there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, because a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations which usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

Great stuff percy.

What defines "pressured"
I assume a time tag has to be used. Is it pressure after 2 seconds? 3 seconds?
If a QB leaves an okay pocket into pressure, or gets pressure because he fails to climb the pocket...does that still count as "pressure"?

 

[Doomsay]

Here's every full game of his career so far, with the number representing the percentage of dropbacks on which he was pressured (hurried, hit as thrown, or sacked) in that game. About 33% is normal.

2016
29 NYG
37 at WAS
37 CHI
39 at SF
26 CIN
21 at GB
52 PHI
24 at CLE
35 at PIT
31 BAL
39 WAS
52 at MIN
48 at NYG
29 TB
28 DET
31 GB

2017
23 NYG
40 at DEN
37 at ARI
44 LAR
23 GB
27 at SF
40 at WAS
31 KC
45 at ATL
46 PHI
41 LAC
33 WAS
21 at NYG
42 at OAK
49 SEA

W-L by pressured %
< 40% 17-3 (.850)
≥ 40% 4-7 (.364)

in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
413 of 600 (68.8%) 4932 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.7
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
208 of 352 (59.1%) 2119 yd (6.0 ypa) 9 td 15 int 67.2

You would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, but Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he gets a lot of pressure, even when he's not pressured on that particular play. Especially (but not only) in 2017.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET only
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 222 of 288 (77.1%) 2636 yd (9.2 ypa) 17 td 1 int 122.6
2017 106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0
career 328 of 440 (74.5%) 3842 yd (8.7 ypa) 30 td 2 int 121.4

in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0
career 145 of 219 (66.2%) 1347 yd (6.2 ypa) 8 td 10 int 76.0

Keep in mind that there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, because a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations which usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

He was hurried because he couldn't make an easy read. Dak just started to fold, it wasn't exogenous forces at play, just his weaknesses getting exploited.

 

[percyhoward]

Sturm also mentioned Seattle blitzed him quite a bit and had success. Think it was a one-time anomaly?

I think it's safe to say pressure affects his game, whether it's from a DL or not. Not all blitzes bring pressure though, and a 102.1 rating vs. the blitz in 2016 and 109.6 this year going into the Oakland game would make Seattle's success -- as it relates to blitzes -- an anomaly.

Blitz or no, Seattle's 49% pressure rate and Prescott's reaction to it are more of the same.

 

[Doomsay]

I think it's safe to say pressure affects his game, whether it's from a DL or not. Not all blitzes bring pressure though, and a 102.1 rating vs. the blitz in 2016 and 109.6 this year going into the Oakland game would make Seattle's success -- as it relates to blitzes -- an anomaly.

Blitz or no, Seattle's 49% pressure rate and Prescott's reaction to it are more of the same.

So, under what lower defensive pressure scenario is Dak going to be a franchise QB? What are the metrics for him to complete an easy 5 yard out to Jason?

 

[waving monkey]

The O line has poor depth. If one of our starters gets hurt, he gets replaced by a turnstile.

bingo poor depth and I look to Pollard for some of the blame
When Callahan left the O/line went down some

 

[Airbiscuit]

I'm not gonna stop, mon frère. If Dak can't make the completion, little dump off to Zeke, that's a problem. But that's not what you're arguing, buddy boy.

Him not hitting Witt when there's a rover hovering the middle of the field is not earth shattering. Watch your own damned tape.

Absolutely not. Any NFL caliber qb makes that throw to either Bease or Witt. The problem is that Dak becomes skittish and very tentative with pressure. Even the overthrow to Zeke was high because he himself said that he changed his mind mid throw.

 

[percyhoward]

Great stuff percy.

What defines "pressured"
I assume a time tag has to be used. Is it pressure after 2 seconds? 3 seconds?
If a QB leaves an okay pocket into pressure, or gets pressure because he fails to climb the pocket...does that still count as "pressure"?

Or waits too long for someone to come open, yes it's still a pressure. A "pressure" here is any time the QB is hurried, hit as throwing, or sacked, regardless of time in the pocket or who is to blame.

 

[Doomsay]

LOL, Dak is increasingly indecisive, so he faces more statistical "pressure".

 

[percyhoward]

Dak is increasingly indecisive, so he he faces more statistical "pressure".

The increase in pressures doesn't seem to be a result of spending more time in the pocket -- at least not in 2017 when 3/4 of these games have happened.

Percentage of dropbacks with >2.5 seconds in pocket
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 55.5%
2017 50.7%
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 62.4%
2017 50.0%

The pressures this year are more likely a result of OL issues and defenses faced.

 

[percyhoward]

Of the 32 QB with the most dropbacks, this is the average time (in seconds) from the snap of the ball until a sack in 2017.

1 Taylor 4.18
2 Brissett 3.99
3 Newton 3.91
4 Goff 3.76
5 Rodgers 3.73

28T Brees 3.17
28T Prescott 3.17
30 Carr 3.06
31 Manning 3.05
32 Palmer 2.66

Last year, Prescott ranked 4th, and Carr was 2nd.

 

[superonyx]

The increase in pressures doesn't seem to be a result of spending more time in the pocket -- at least not in 2017 when 3/4 of these games have happened.

Percentage of dropbacks with >2.5 seconds in pocket
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 55.5%
2017 50.7%
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 62.4%
2017 50.0%

The pressures this year are more likely a result of OL issues and defenses faced.

Thanks for this Percy.
While we have some posters here that have already made up their mind and are trying hard to discredit the facts you are presenting...some of us actually take all this in and use it to determine if we should be very worried about Prescott moving forward. Based on everything you posted the conclusion I am taking from all of this is that Dak didn’t just fall apart this year. It shows what I always suspected after watching the Giants and Vikings last year. Our coaches did a very poor job of helping Dak and the OL when needed this year. It makes me wonder why the coaches didn’t pick up on this and make the adjustments needed to combat this issue.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

The increase in pressures doesn't seem to be a result of spending more time in the pocket -- at least not in 2017 when 3/4 of these games have happened.

Percentage of dropbacks with >2.5 seconds in pocket
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 55.5%
2017 50.7%
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 62.4%
2017 50.0%

The pressures this year are more likely a result of OL issues and defenses faced.

So he’s actually been spending less time in the pocket this year. Is the decrease a matter of getting the ball out more quickly or bailing out of the pocket faster?

 

[TINGS21]

Of the 32 QB with the most dropbacks, this is the average time (in seconds) from the snap of the ball until a sack in 2017.

1 Taylor 4.18
2 Brissett 3.99
3 Newton 3.91
4 Goff 3.76
5 Rodgers 3.73

28T Brees 3.17
28T Prescott 3.17
30 Carr 3.06
31 Manning 3.05
32 Palmer 2.66

Last year, Prescott ranked 4th, and Carr was 2nd.

The NFL nextgen stats show his time to throw was 2.88 sec (5th) in ‘16 vs 2.81(8th) in ‘17.

 

[percyhoward]

So he’s actually been spending less time in the pocket this year. Is the decrease a matter of getting the ball out more quickly or bailing out of the pocket faster?

He's been getting sacked quicker, so both.

Time to throw
2016 2.89 (4th)
2017 2.82 (7th)

Time to scramble
2016 5.10 (12th)
2017 4.91 (22nd)

Time to sack
2016 3.83 (4th)
2017 3.17 (28th)

 

[percyhoward]

The NFL nextgen stats show his time to throw was 2.88 sec (5th) in ‘16 vs 2.81(8th) in ‘17.

That's a different stat. You can't throw it when you've been sacked.

But that's funny how PFF's numbers are both just 1/100 of a second off from the NFL's.

 

[Coy]

Here's every full game of his career so far, with the number representing the percentage of dropbacks on which he was pressured (hurried, hit as thrown, or sacked) in that game. About 33% is normal.

2016
29 NYG
37 at WAS
37 CHI
39 at SF
26 CIN
21 at GB
52 PHI
24 at CLE
35 at PIT
31 BAL
39 WAS
52 at MIN
48 at NYG
29 TB
28 DET
31 GB

2017
23 NYG
40 at DEN
37 at ARI
44 LAR
23 GB
27 at SF
40 at WAS
31 KC
45 at ATL
46 PHI
41 LAC
33 WAS
21 at NYG
42 at OAK
49 SEA

W-L by pressured %
< 40% 17-3 (.850)
≥ 40% 4-7 (.364)

in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
413 of 600 (68.8%) 4932 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.7
in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
208 of 352 (59.1%) 2119 yd (6.0 ypa) 9 td 15 int 67.2

You would expect a QB to struggle when pressured, but Prescott also tends to struggle on all attempts in games in which he gets a lot of pressure, even when he's not pressured on that particular play. Especially (but not only) in 2017.

Passing from CLEAN POCKET only
in games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016 222 of 288 (77.1%) 2636 yd (9.2 ypa) 17 td 1 int 122.6
2017 106 of 152 (69.7%) 1206 yd (7.9 ypa) 13 td 1 int 119.0
career 328 of 440 (74.5%) 3842 yd (8.7 ypa) 30 td 2 int 121.4

in games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks
2016 29 of 53 (54.7%) 422 yd (8.0 ypa) 4 td 3 int 82.4
2017 116 of 166 (69.9%) 925 yd (5.6 ypa) 4 td 7 int 74.0
career 145 of 219 (66.2%) 1347 yd (6.2 ypa) 8 td 10 int 76.0

Keep in mind that there will be some cause-effect confusion in these samples, because a QB who is struggling from a clean pocket is more likely to be losing the game, and so will find himself in more passing situations which usually translates into more pressures as the game goes on. This effect is somewhat diminished by using percentages instead of the raw number of pressures, but not completely eliminated.

Someone posted this earlier...

From 2011 to 2013, Romo was sacked 35+ times each year. This year, Dak has been sacked 31 times.

During that span, Romo threw for 4,000 yds 31TD to 13 INT average...

I bet he had even more pressures that Dak this year, he still put out great numbers.
Although it is obviously better to have a clean pocket, I don’t think pressure should be an excuse for great QB’s

BTW, Percy, you are awsome, thanks.

 

[percyhoward]

I don’t think pressure should be an excuse for great QB’s

BTW, Percy, you are awsome, thanks.

It isn't, and you're welcome.

When Parcells called Romo one of those guys who could walk into the room, sink the 8 ball, and walk out, it's because he'd seen so many who couldn't. That's what impressed him most about Romo -- his grace under pressure.