Quarterback futility in the NFL

[erod]

The importance of maximizing Tony Romo's final years is paramount. Not just because he's an elite QB, but because replacing him is going to be a titanic challenge.

History proves that drafting and developing an elite quarterback is a mostly futile endeavor. The bust rate is staggering, especially in recent years as the college game has veered violently from the pro style, and those quarterbacks are getting the crud beat out of them in the pros. Many of them have never taken a snap from center, or dropped back in a pocket, in their football lives, which makes projecting them to the NFL a virtual guess most of the time.

Below are the starting quarterbacks for each NFL team. Note how few of them are established quality NFL quarterbacks (in bold), and how sparse so many draft years are at finding good ones. Such doesn't bode well for Goff or Wentz or the others, who come with little pedigree spotty success against legitimate competition.

2000

• Tom Brady - 6th round

2001

• Drew Brees - 2nd round

2002

• None

2003

• Carson Palmer - 1st round
• Tony Romo - undrafted

2004

• Eli Manning - 1st round
• Philip Rivers - 1st round
• Ben Roethlisberger - 1st round

2005

• Alex Smith - 1st round
• Aaron Rodgers - 1st round
• Ryan Fitzpatrick - 7th round

2006

• Jay Cutler - 1st round

2007

• None

2008

• Matt Ryan - 1st round
• Joe Flacco - 1st round

2009

• Matt Stafford - 1st round
• Mark Sanchez - 1st round

2010

• Sam Bradford - 1st round

2011

• Cam Newton - 1st round
• Colin Kaepernick - 2nd round
• Andy Dalton - 2nd round
• Tyrod Taylor - 6th round

2012

• Andrew Luck - 1st round
• Ryan Tannehill - 1st round
• Robert Griffin III - 1st round
• Brock Osweiler - 2nd round
• Russell Wilson - 3rd round
• Kirk Cousins - 3rd round
• Nick Foles - 3rd round

2013

• None

2014

• Blake Bortles - 1st round
• Teddy Bridgewater - 1st round
• Derek Carr - 2nd round

2015

• Jameis Winston - 1st round
• Marcus Mariotta - 1st round

 

[Denim Chicken]

2016

* Dak Prescott



j/k

 

[Corso]

The importance of maximizing Tony Romo's final years is paramount. Not just because he's an elite QB, but because replacing him is going to be a titanic challenge.

History proves that drafting and developing an elite quarterback is a mostly futile endeavor. The bust rate is staggering, especially in recent years as the college game has veered violently from the pro style, and those quarterbacks are getting the crud beat out of them in the pros. Many of them have never taken a snap from center, or dropped back in a pocket, in their football lives, which makes projecting them to the NFL a virtual guess most of the time.

Below are the starting quarterbacks for each NFL team. Note how few of them are established quality NFL quarterbacks (in bold), and how sparse so many draft years are at finding good ones. Such doesn't bode well for Goff or Wentz or the others, who come with little pedigree spotty success against legitimate competition.

...

True. It's so, so hard to find THE guy for a football team.
And frankly, it's scary. I certainly don't have the answer other than throwing more resources yearly into finding that guy, but I guess that's why I don't work for an NFL team.

 

[erod]

11 of the starting NFL quarterbacks in the league were drafted 10 or more years ago.

Wow.

 

[conner01]

It's the hardest position to draft and costs the most to go get one if you aren't in position to get one when you need one

 

[Wolfpack]

11 of the starting NFL quarterbacks in the league were drafted 10 or more years ago.

Wow.

Age helps the QB position like no other. It takes awhile to learn the game. I think a fair part of the current QB drout is not letting them learn before they are really ready.

The flip side is that once they are ready, you need to pay them for unproven service or risk loosing that investment to FA. Just part of the price of the game.

 

[Doomsday101]

Age helps the QB position like no other. It takes awhile to learn the game. I think a fair part of the current QB drout is not letting them learn before they are really ready.

The flip side is that once they are ready, you need to pay them for unproven service or risk loosing that investment to FA. Just part of the price of the game.

I agree. I think most teams are pretty much forced to throw young QB out there but I still think if a QB is allowed some time before being thrown out there the better chance he will have. With a rookie cap in place it is more than feasible to do that.

 

[Vinnie2u]

To me it looks like we of should of drafted a QB at 4. 16 of the 32 were first round picks.

 

[Eddie]

The crazy thing is that you'll never find a franchise QB unless you address the position.

 

[SHAMSzy]

The thing you aren't considering is 5 years from now QBs from the past 5 years will have emerged.. If you made this list in 05 it'd be a similar story.

 

[dogunwo]

It's the hardest position to draft and costs the most to go get one if you aren't in position to get one when you need one

Yeah, you said it. Its importance and limited availability make the costs skyrocket

 

[Denim Chicken]

This is why its good business to draft one every few years.

 

[Idgit]

11 of the starting NFL quarterbacks in the league were drafted 10 or more years ago.

Wow.

I don't find that at all surprising. You find a good one, you keep him. Other than Brees and Palmer, that's about what happened. Another third of the team or so are in the process of developing somebody on a rookie contract. The bottom third are scrambling because they don't really have a guy.

Anecdotally, it doesn't seem right that Cutler's newer to the league than Alex Smith. It feels like that guy's been around stealing paychecks forever.

 

[conner01]

Yeah, you said it. Its importance and limited availability make the costs skyrocket

And the risk

 

[Yakuza Rich]

It's out development of QB's from the organization that is more important than just about anything.

What we are seeing a lot of these days is teams starting QB's right away. I think that is generally a disastrous move. There's such a learning curve and it's a precious time in most QB's career to sit and learn instead of playing right away and trying to survive out on the field. For instance, you may have a talented QB that struggles with their footwork. Throwing them out there right away combined with having to learn all of the other parts of being a QB, studying gamefilm and then getting used to the speed of the game...the end result is going to be a QB that reverts back to their old footwork. And that may destroy their confidence. For every Russell Wilson, there's a Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, JP Losman, etc. that were lost when they might have been good if they sat the bench until they were ready.





YR

 

[Joe Realist]

It's the hardest position to draft and costs the most to go get one if you aren't in position to get one when you need one

which is why I am upset the Eagles got Wentz. He will kill us in time, starting in December.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

It's out development of QB's from the organization that is more important than just about anything.

What we are seeing a lot of these days is teams starting QB's right away. I think that is generally a disastrous move. There's such a learning curve and it's a precious time in most QB's career to sit and learn instead of playing right away and trying to survive out on the field. For instance, you may have a talented QB that struggles with their footwork. Throwing them out there right away combined with having to learn all of the other parts of being a QB, studying gamefilm and then getting used to the speed of the game...the end result is going to be a QB that reverts back to their old footwork. And that may destroy their confidence. For every Russell Wilson, there's a Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, JP Losman, etc. that were lost when they might have been good if they sat the bench until they were ready.
YR

Excellent point. I've always wondered if the Patriots had drafted Tom Brady in the first round and made him start immediately if he would have busted or just would have just become a journeyman. I suspect the same thing about Dallas and Romo. If he had been our first-round pick with all that pressure on him to start and lead the team immediately, I suspect it would have been just too much and he would not have developed into the elite QB that he is. Obviously, this is unprovable speculation because we can't do a Star Trek style timeline change, but it's what I suspect. By the same token, I suspect there are QBs who busted who may have been long-term starters if they had been allowed to stay on the bench and learn for a couple years first.

 

[CATCH17]

The crazy thing is that you'll never find a franchise QB unless you address the position.

Weeeentz.

 

[AmericasTeam81]

The almost ubiquitous use of the spread offense, read option offense in high school and college is starting to have a major impact on the NFL game.

 

[Kaiser]

For every Russell Wilson, there's a Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, JP Losman, etc. that were lost when they might have been good if they sat the bench until they were ready.

I agree, David Carr of the Texans should be on the OP because he was the first pick of the draft in 2002. If he wasn't thrown into the fire from the beginning, he could have developed into a good QB.