Question for Hostile (& anyone else in the know) about the Roy Willy Trade

[Vintage]

I think Jerry saw Roy's production in Detroit and thought with a good QB, Roy could easily produce beyond that.

Jerry saw a physically talented WR who could be a #1 WR and take over for Owens and we wouldn't miss a beat. While I have no basis for this, I do think the Roy trade precipated the release of Owens. I do not think, had we kept the 1st rounder AND drafted a WR, Jerry would have gone into the season with Austin, a rookie WR, and Crayton. Obviously, with hindsight, if we had drafted Harvin or Nicks (or someone like that) we'd have been ok. But that's because Austin busted out like no one predicted. Jerry might have been saying all the right things in regards to Austin, but I do not think Jerry forsaw Austin stepping up the way he did this season. So.... Jerry wanted a weapon to give Romo. It also allowed him to evaluate in the offseason in regards to the Owens issue.

 

[Bach]

I guess these guy were referring to me, but I don't get their point, what was it?

Don't worry, they rarely have one.

 

[Bach]

Bach, your signature is pretty hilarious.

I've been kinda asking myself the same question the week or so .

[/CARRY ON]

It would be funny if it weren't so sad.

 

[Randy White]

with RW is so simple that any 10 cents pyschologist can see it ( and yes, I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, so I qualify ).

His problem is his contract.

He needs to stop " thinking " he " has to " live up to it on every play. He doesn't need to score a TD every time he catches a pass. He doesn't need to make a 1 hand catch all the time. He doesn't need to be Superman just because he's making alot of money. Get back to basis. Run the route, see the ball, catch the ball, run. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less.

Once he gets over that hurddle and learns to relax, everyting else ( the chemistry with Romo questions, the TDs, the catches, the yardages, the 1st downs ) will take care of itself.

 

[Hostile]

And as for those in the know, hmmm:

I was guessing about that part, not the whole topic. That guess is based upon reports about how closely that staff work together on these decisions.

Just want to clarify that.

 

[SDogo]

Good grief......this thread is like a roller coaster. So many high points, great discussion, insight shared...just good football talk and then out of no where comes a 100ft drop into dumb land.

 

[WoodysGirl]

Good grief......this thread is like a roller coaster. So many high points, great discussion, insight shared...just good football talk and then out of no where comes a 100ft drop into dumb land.

So I wasn't the only one who thought that? lol

 

[Hostile]

Good grief......this thread is like a roller coaster. So many high points, great discussion, insight shared...just good football talk and then out of no where comes a 100ft drop into dumb land.

Hopefully I was not part of that drop. If so, kick my shins.

 

[SDogo]

Hopefully I was not part of that drop. If so, kick my shins.

Just the opposite but I'll still kick your shins if you want. lol

 

[SDogo]

So I wasn't the only one who thought that? lol

Keep your hands and arms inside the cart at all times.....lol

 

[Eskimo]

I have no idea why Austin didn't start the first 4 games of 2009 or played more 08. I have no idea why Felix wasn't used more, or Spencer. You're right.

We never defer to guys on contract and overpay for vets (Hamlin, Flozell, et al). I apologize

Bill Parcells when he was here said that when a younger player in almost or as good as an older player, you have to let the older player go and move on because by the end of the year the younger guy is going to be better and will help the team in the long run. It is painful to let players go who have been helpful in the past and they may still be able to play right now, but this is a young man's game.

Jerry needs to take a hard look at start to make some decisions about Flo, Kosier and Colombo. I don't think any of these guys can play as starters for much longer. Flo and Colombo are too expensive to be backups for long. He also may need to make the decision to part with Barber, hopefully via trade for an early 3rd rounder (got my fingers crossed). Hamlin's days are likely also numbered given his deal. TNew is saved by the fact that CBs are so hard to find and he still is playing very well.

 

[TheDude]

Bill Parcells when he was here said that when a younger player in almost or as good as an older player, you have to let the older player go and move on because by the end of the year the younger guy is going to be better and will help the team in the long run. It is painful to let players go who have been helpful in the past and they may still be able to play right now, but this is a young man's game.

Jerry needs to take a hard look at start to make some decisions about Flo, Kosier and Colombo. I don't think any of these guys can play as starters for much longer. Flo and Colombo are too expensive to be backups for long. He also may need to make the decision to part with Barber, hopefully via trade for an early 3rd rounder (got my fingers crossed). Hamlin's days are likely also numbered given his deal. TNew is saved by the fact that CBs are so hard to find and he still is playing very well.

I thought I was alone..

This is what is alarming to me, starting with Parcells last draft, No 1st-3rd round picks have started or really saw much action in their first year. The first couple of Years Parcells was here all kinds of rookies started and played (Newman, Jones, Barber, Witten, Burnette, James, etc). But unlike the horrible drafts from 1996-2003, Once most have been given a chance to contribute in games, they have.

Now I agree their is a balance with letting some rookies learn, but sitting spencer for a whole year was inexcusible, as was the underutilization of Felix and Tashard and Free,

Of all those, only Carpenter was likely a bust, but he has played better the more he has gotten in the games

.....Except our 1st and 3rd round picks did play the majority of this year and last year...

 

[yimyammer]

Does anyone else find it perplexing that on the one hand the Cowboys can identify, acquire and develop a guy like Austin (yet be hesitant to put him on the fileld until Roy got hurt) and also identify and acquire Roy and have him perform so much lower than expected?

It makes me wonder about the scouting abilities of the organization as well as their decision making process.

I guess this confusion is at the heart of my post.

On the one hand they seem to have something really good in spotting a guy like Austin and having him play so well but then acquire a guy like Roy who has been a major disappointment. If he was an original draft choice that didn't work out, I wouldn't be as disappointed. Having the luxury of seeing him play in the league for 4 years should have reduced the chances of missing on him dramatically.

I hope the Cowboys are thinking hard about this internally because there appears to be an issue with talent evaluation when it comes to receivers.

Did that even make any sense?

 

[Hostile]

Does anyone else find it perplexing that on the one hand the Cowboys can identify, acquire and develop a guy like Austin (yet be hesitant to put him on the fileld until Roy got hurt) and also identify and acquire Roy and have him perform so much lower than expected?

It makes me wonder about the scouting abilities of the organization as well as their decision making process.

I guess this confusion is at the heart of my post.

On the one hand they seem to have something really good in spotting a guy like Austin and having him play so well but then acquire a guy like Roy who has been a major disappointment. If he was an original draft choice that didn't work out, I wouldn't be as disappointed. Having the luxury of seeing him play in the league for 4 years should have reduced the chances of missing on him dramatically.

I hope the Cowboys are thinking hard about this internally because there appears to be an issue with talent evaluation when it comes to receivers.

Did that even make any sense?

Here's the thing Yim, every team has that same thing.

The Patriots...Chad Jackson a high draft pick, bombed out. Wes Welker a UDFA that they traded for and he fits perfectly. Same coaches and scouting department looked at both.

 

[Eskimo]

Here's the thing Yim, every team has that same thing.

The Patriots...Chad Jackson a high draft pick, bombed out. Wes Welker a UDFA that they traded for and he fits perfectly. Same coaches and scouting department looked at both.

The Pats mistake was more excusable because there is always a huge projection between seeing what a guy can do in college with college playbooks and gameplans against other college players versus the NFL.

Jackson had the measurables and played well in college and looked the part so he was a reasonable 2nd round pick. Some of these are going to be flops.

With Welker, they had the chance to see how he actually did when facing NFL calibre competition in an NFL style offense rather than the run and shoot.
So here the only projection is to how he fits into your system.

I think earlier you mentioned that Jerry developed an infatuation with Roy and I think this is what caused the trade to happen. I personally doubt Garrett or the scouts had much to do with it. I bet they came back and said not to offer more than a second rounder but that is conjecture, of course.

I know you may think otherwise but I suspect Roy has failed mostly due to lack of work ethic. He doesn't seem to have the hunger to improve his game. He is happy to rest on his laurels of a highlight reel of big plays made in the past, a Pro Bowl appearance in his backpocket and two big signing bonuses in the bank and $26M guaranteed of Mr. Jones' money. He was in denial regarding his dismal 2008 and thought that things would be fine once his plantar fasciitis settled in the offseason. It took embarassment in front of a Monday night crowd for him to see the player who he has become - a JAG. I do worry about a guy like RoyW who always got by on natural talent - every guy in the NFL has natural talent - it isn't enough. He has failed to advance his game and the rest of the league knows his game cold. What used to work well for him has mostly been taken away from him. He will need to learn how to do new things to be successful.

Of course, this is all just hypothesis and conjecture but we'll see if I'm right. I think if Roy finds success, it will be because he has improved his game, not because he has "found his old game" or "developed chemistry with Romo". I think Romo, Garrett, Wade and Jerry have done their best to protect Roy from vilification the best they could in the hopes they can turn him around this offseason.

 

[yimyammer]

Here's the thing Yim, every team has that same thing.

The Patriots...Chad Jackson a high draft pick, bombed out. Wes Welker a UDFA that they traded for and he fits perfectly. Same coaches and scouting department looked at both.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, you obviously know more than I do about all this stuff.

However, I don't see Austin/Williams as being similar to New Englands Jackson/Welker but maybe that's the first trade that came to your mind.

I thinnk your point is you can't bat a 100% which I agree, but I still take issue with the Roy Trade and it causes me to doubt managements ability to put the best team on the field which is the main problem I've had with the Cowboys since Jimmy and Landry left (with the exception of time while Parcells was on board).

I know a lot of people hate New England because of the video crap, but I really like the way they do things and the Welker trade is one of many examples of things I think they do very well (good player analysis with a low risk/cost--the value of the picks they gave up was 300 points compared to Dallas' 1st & 3rd worth 1038 points).

I hope management and Jerry are reflecting hard on deals like Roy Williams and how they can better analize the risk reward of future deals if they were to present themselves.

I hope they don't get too locked into any players, churn the roster and keep all players competing for their jobs while giving younger players opportunities, building a team philosphy primarily from the draft with strategically signed free agents that don't cost the farm or cripple us cap wise or in the draft.

I still think there are philosophical issues that are keeping this team from being the best they can be, but last year was a nice change in a positive direction that was fortunately rewarded with a measure of success in the regular season and playoffs. I really hope this bodes well for our future (because Jerry sees it can work this way and that he doesn't have to go back to his wildcatting ways).

I wish we would have gone further, but I am very happy with this team and proud to root for them, I can be proud of team that works hard, competes and plays hard every game regardless of what their record is. We've got some really great guys (Roy included) that just make you want to see them succeed that much more.

I've said it before, but I hope this sinks in with Jerry and he realizes in todays NFL you don't have to swing for the fences trying to hit homers every time you come up to bat and you can win a lot of games and compete year in and out by consistently getting singles and doubles.

Of course this is just my naive opinion, so take it for what its worth

 

[Hostile]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, you obviously know more than I do about all this stuff.

However, I don't see Austin/Williams as being similar to New Englands Jackson/Welker but maybe that's the first trade that came to your mind.

I thinnk your point is you can't bat a 100% which I agree, but I still take issue with the Roy Trade and it causes me to doubt managements ability to put the best team on the field which is the main problem I've had with the Cowboys since Jimmy and Landry left (with the exception of time while Parcells was on board).

I know a lot of people hate New England because of the video crap, but I really like the way they do things and the Welker trade is one of many examples of things I think they do very well (good player analysis with a low risk/cost--the value of the picks they gave up was 300 points compared to Dallas' 1st & 3rd worth 1038 points).

I hope management and Jerry are reflecting hard on deals like Roy Williams and how they can better analize the risk reward of future deals if they were to present themselves.

I hope they don't get too locked into any players, churn the roster and keep all players competing for their jobs while giving younger players opportunities, building a team philosphy primarily from the draft with strategically signed free agents that don't cost the farm or cripple us cap wise or in the draft.

I still think there are philosophical issues that are keeping this team from being the best they can be, but last year was a nice change in a positive direction that was fortunately rewarded with a measure of success in the regular season and playoffs. I really hope this bodes well for our future (because Jerry sees it can work this way and that he doesn't have to go back to his wildcatting ways).

I wish we would have gone further, but I am very happy with this team and proud to root for them, I can be proud of team that works hard, competes and plays hard every game regardless of what their record is. We've got some really great guys (Roy included) that just make you want to see them succeed that much more.

I've said it before, but I hope this sinks in with Jerry and he realizes in todays NFL you don't have to swing for the fences trying to hit homers every time you come up to bat and you can win a lot of games and compete year in and out by consistently getting singles and doubles.

Of course this is just my naive opinion, so take it for what its worth

There's an old saying that is true of football, "no guts, no glory."

You have to know when enough guts is enough and when it is too much.

Every NFL team has made bad Draft picks. Every NFL team has made bad trades.

Here's something that is not a common thought in football. Some guys will not work in other systems. Let me give you an example that also works for bad trades. Herschel Walker.

He came to Dallas and tore things up. His numbers with Tony Dorsett as a backfield mate were great and when it was his job he was a killer. He was never the same player in Minnesota despite the fact they were a better team than we were. He only had two 1000 yard seasons as a pro. His last year in Dallas with 1500+ and his first year in Philly. He never came close in Minny.

It is like that often. Some guys can transition. A lot can't. There is no way to predict when someone can't. It cannot be done. You take the 12 greatest minds in football History and put them in the same room they will have 12 different opinions on how to use a player.

Pittsburgh drafted Johnny Unitas. He was born in Pittsburgh. He never threw a pass for them. Not one pass. Guy right in their back yard became the greatest QB of his generation.

Chuck Howley was a flop in Chicago with George "Papa Bear" Halas. Landry made him a machine at LB.

100% in football is effort on the field. Nowhere else has a possibility. You cannot predict a player being a vital piece of the puzzle. You cannot predict a player flopping.

It's an odd shaped ball and weird things happen.

 

[yimyammer]

There's an old saying that is true of football, "no guts, no glory."

You have to know when enough guts is enough and when it is too much.

.

Could you elaborate on what you mean by no guts no glory?

If you mean, you have to take calulated risks that may or may not work out, I agree. If you mean you have to gamble on the success of the entire team in order to win, then I don't agree (especially in this day and age with the salary cap and free agency).

I don't know all there is to know about football, in fact I would admit, I probably don't know much, but in my estimation, I would place a higher value on building strong offensive and defensive lines before devoting expensive resources on a risky receiving core, especially if I had a good QB, a better than average defense and good running backs. Given the age of our O-line and the time I would think it will take to rebuild it, I think it might have been a better decision to not risk the draft picks in addition to the high salary for Roy.

If Jerry hadn't blinked, I think they coud have signed Roy as a free agent and then at least we would have kept our draft picks and possibly picked up a guy like Michael Oher. We'd still be disappointed with Roy, but it wouldn't be nearly as bad.

My point is I think Jerry & Co didn't know when too much guts was too much in regard to this deal and I hope he shows better judgement in the future. The fact that you say player analysis is such a crap shoot just affirms my opinion that this trade was a poor decision. I thought Jerry always said it's too risky to spend high draft picks on receivers because their failure rate is too high. I thought trading or acquiring a receiver that has been in the league was supposed to significantly mitigate that risk (not eliminate it, just significantly reduce it)

I believe in todays NFL, an organization with a team first mentality can be very competitive with a mix of variously talented players and if they have a good to great QB, they can be very successful without making high risk/high cost trades like we did for Roy. I would reserve the high risk/high reward decisions for QB's, the best pass rushers and the next Ed Reed/Lawrence Taylors of the league. Do you think this is this a far fetched notion?

 

[Bach]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by no guts no glory?

It's just a gibberish way of trying to defend one of the worst GM's in the league over the last 15 years.

 

[Hostile]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by no guts no glory?

If you mean, you have to take calulated risks that may or may not work out, I agree. If you mean you have to gamble on the success of the entire team in order to win, then I don't agree (especially in this day and age with the salary cap and free agency).

I don't know all there is to know about football, in fact I would admit, I probably don't know much, but in my estimation, I would place a higher value on building strong offensive and defensive lines before devoting expensive resources on a risky receiving core, especially if I had a good QB, a better than average defense and good running backs. Given the age of our O-line and the time I would think it will take to rebuild it, I think it might have been a better decision to not risk the draft picks in addition to the high salary for Roy.

If Jerry hadn't blinked, I think they coud have signed Roy as a free agent and then at least we would have kept our draft picks and possibly picked up a guy like Michael Oher. We'd still be disappointed with Roy, but it wouldn't be nearly as bad.

My point is I think Jerry & Co didn't know when too much guts was too much in regard to this deal and I hope he shows better judgement in the future. The fact that you say player analysis is such a crap shoot just affirms my opinion that this trade was a poor decision. I thought Jerry always said it's too risky to spend high draft picks on receivers because their failure rate is too high. I thought trading or acquiring a receiver that has been in the league was supposed to significantly mitigate that risk (not eliminate it, just significantly reduce it)

I believe in todays NFL, an organization with a team first mentality can be very competitive with a mix of variously talented players and if they have a good to great QB, they can be very successful without making high risk/high cost trades like we did for Roy. I would reserve the high risk/high reward decisions for QB's, the best pass rushers and the next Ed Reed/Lawrence Taylors of the league. Do you think this is this a far fetched notion?

Exactly, it is about calculated risks. Every team in the NFL looks at their roster and tries to decide what will make it better. Every time there is a change on that roster, whether it is a Draft pick, or a waiver, or a Free Agent, or a trade that move is a calculated risk.

Look at the waiver of Owens for example. That was a risky move. Many people panned it. Some of our own fans were sure that meant we were headed back to 5-11 days. Some former Cowboys were part of that mindset. Gutsy move that paid off.

Sometimes those moves backfire. Oakland traded Moss away for a song. He blew up in New England.

Every year moves work and they don't. When it happened I was not too sure about the Leonard Davis move. A lot of money for a guy who I had seen a lot of and quite frankly he had not lived up to his Draft status. Now I look at it and think, that move paid off. It takes guts to pay that kind of money for someone to be a missing piece in a puzzle.

It took guts for Minnesota to go after Brett Favre. His shoulder was so bad after 2008 he had to have surgery. His late season fade was noticeable. Yet they paid him 12 million I think. No guts, no glory. Without them doing that, they aren't in the NFC Championship.

Every team has to look at risks and rewards and roll the dice. Not just the Cowboys despite what some people foolishly preach.

To me that is all the Williams trade was, a roll of the dice. In some ways it has worked out wonderfully, the guy loves it here and is part of a positive chemistry with this team. In some ways, namely stats production, it has not.

For just about every player you can play what if games. What if the Cowboys had taken Tony Mandarich instead of Troy Aikman? We don't know because they didn't. What if we had drafted Nick Mangold instead of Bobby Carpenter? We don't know because we didn't. What if we had traded a 4th to Oakland and had Moss and Owens? We don't know because we didn't.

All of these scenarios are fun for some people to think about. I have never been able to grasp the concept. What if every single player on your team gets the swine flu the day before the game? What if your Kicker decides he is really a woman trapped in a man's body? To me outrageous stuff like that is the same category. We don't know because it didn't happen.

It's easy to look at the players we did not draft with the 2 picks we gave up for Roy. Do we know those are the exact 2 players on the radar? No, because it never happened.

A lot of people have no idea how a football personnel decision is made. They assume it is just like when they make one on Madden or Fantasy Football. Nothing could be further from the truth. It's a lot more complicated than that.

Sometime the guts pay off. Sometimes glory moves further away. Let's be honest, the waiver of Owens might have backfired. Thank heavens Miles Austin emerged. He might not have ever emerged if not for one game proving to him that he could do this at this level. Once he knew, he knew he belonged, he made his mark. Now he has his QBs confidence and is in the Pro Bowl. I love stuff like that. Owens still here, that story never happens.

No guts, no glory.