Quick Brugler nugget on drafting QBs

[lkelly]

"Here's some outliers. This totally disproves the rule!"

The history of the SB era makes it quite clear - your best bet is to draft QBs with premium draft picks as often as possible. Even if you already have Tom Brady you should still do this as you will have the next guy, or you trade one of them for a huge haul of more draft picks.

It's the easy moneyball of the NFL. Any idiot armed with this simple realization that anyone can confirm for themselves with a glance at the history of the SB era can build a successful team.

If you need to go deeper than this here is a four step solution to team building:

1) Find the right QB.
2) Find a blind side tackle to protect him.
3) Find a stud DE pass rusher to destroy the other team's QB.
4) Everything else including coaches.

Imagine you are the Cleveland Browns and you have gone through more first round QBs than Dallas has drafted in the last 40 years. You had Joe Thomas for his entire career. You drafted DPOY Myles Garrett and have gotten 7 years out of him. As a cherry on top, you once had Bill Belichick, Nick Saban and Kirk Ferentz on the coaching staff at the same time.

All this and you still are one of the worst franchises since the introduction of the salary cap. So maybe not any idiot...

 

[Hawkeye0202]

My dude.....mid-tier vets are already making at or more than Dak is currently. You're either resigning Dak or drafting a QB

my mid-tier vet(s) are guys like Derrick Carr, Justin Fields, Geno Smith etc. Any QB commanding $40M + isn't mid-tier.

 

[Hadenough]

Been preaching this to people. To put it in perspective…..Dak was a second team all pro last year. He was drafted in 2016….what are all those first round quarterbacks doing not named Mahomes drafted after him? There’s been over 30 of them. Where are they?

But what you fail to understand is Daks play drops off so dramatically it as though he is a back up QB. When he gets that deer in the headlights he's done. He goes cold for 3/4 of the game. When the other team gets on top and pulls their starters Dak comes up for air when he has nothing to lose. We've seen that too many times with him. He's not worth keeping. I think that GB fiasco sealed his fate. Jerry looked so upset. How many times is Jerry going to let Dak disappoint him.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Alex Smith = Geno Smith or Baker

I would gladly take Geno or Mayfield as a bridge to finding my franchise QB

 

[gtb1943]

Ehh I don’t know if draft status has to do with it.

Did Eli Manning win two rings because he was a 1st rounder?

Did Ravens win because Trent Dilfer was a first rounder?

I don’t see the correlation.

Mahomes was a first rounder. Probably will go down as one of the best to ever play if not the best.

The numbers skew in favor off those drafted in the 1st because typically guys don’t succeed in this league.

For instance a guy like Wentz who has had one good year in his year career will get so many chances just because he was a first rounder.

Mariota is always on someone’s team as is Jameis.


Your draft status will get your more chances on a team than a guy taken in the 5th round.

Dak and Romo didn’t fail because they weren’t first rounders. They have had better careers than most first rounders.

Sometimes numbers do tell the tale. Outside of Brady, virtually every SB won this century was with a first rd pick
Brees and Warner are the exceptions I believe. Well, Brad Johnson of course but then he had a historic Defense. That is about the only way you win a SB without a first RD QB.
It is incredibly difficult to build a historic Defense anymore. Was the Legion of Boom historic? Even so they had a QB that turned out to be elite and drafted in the second rd.
The simple fact is that if you want to win a SB the numbers OVERWHELMINGLY say you need a really good QB and the numbers say that virtually all of them come from the first rd

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

But what you fail to understand is Daks play drops off so dramatically it as though he is a back up QB. When he gets that deer in the headlights he's done. He goes cold for 3/4 of the game. When the other team gets on top and pulls their starters Dak comes up for air when he has nothing to lose. We've seen that too many times with him. He's not worth keeping. I think that GB fiasco sealed his fate. Jerry looked so upset. How many times is Jerry going to let Dak disappoint him.

Packers game was a fluke game where the whole team sucked just like the Cardinals;. Had Dak played well you guys would make excuses for it. 49ers have his number.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I would gladly take Geno or Mayfield as a bridge to finding my franchise QB

I mean as a bridge what are your goals?

 

[gtb1943]

Packers game was a fluke game where the whole team sucked just like the Cardinals;. Had Dak played well you guys would make excuses for it. 49ers have his number.

Packers game was a fluke game where the whole team sucked just like the Cardinals;. Had Dak played well you guys would make excuses for it. 49ers have his number.

Packers game was a fluke game where the whole team sucked just like the Cardinals;. Had Dak played well you guys would make excuses for it. 49ers have his number.

fact is he has played lousy or not good in virtually every single Playoff game except against a losing TB team. Now his first one he did good; but he never has since.
There is no evidence that Dak can elevate his game when it really matters.

 

[stinkface]

Draft a QB in the late rounds every year. Like the lottery. If you don't play you can't win.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

I mean as a bridge what are your goals?

I think a lot of the QBs today, especially 1st rounders are thrown in the fire too fast and have problems with the pressure to win. Give me mid-tier vet for a couple of years while my young guy sits and learns. A guy like Geno or Mayfield or Carr can win some games, and maybe get you to the playoffs with strong defense and coaching.

 

[Retro88]

I would gladly take Geno or Mayfield as a bridge to finding my franchise QB

You may do that but the point I was making was the Chiefs did not have a top 8 QB in the league and then decided to give up a 1st & a 3rd to draft one. They had a very replaceable QB. Context is often left out. Geno & Baker are making 25 and 33.5mil/yr btw.

 

[sunalsorises]

The only QBs to win a Super Bowl since Dak was drafted are Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes. Just 4 of them. Only 2 of them were first round picks. Stafford was selected first overall but didn't win until he got to his second team. Mitchell Trubisky was the only QB taken ahead of Mahomes. I guess Mitchell Trubisky still has a chance to rewrite history but it seems unlikely he'll catch Mahomes.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

“We have Alex Smith, guys! Why waste a 1st round pick on that Texas Tech guy that most scouts say is a project at best? It’s scary to try. I like my comfort QB instead”.

Alex Smith sucked.

Tell me what your plan is. (You won't, because you're a coward)

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Sometimes numbers do tell the tale. Outside of Brady, virtually every SB won this century was with a first rd pick
Brees and Warner are the exceptions I believe. Well, Brad Johnson of course but then he had a historic Defense. That is about the only way you win a SB without a first RD QB.
It is incredibly difficult to build a historic Defense anymore. Was the Legion of Boom historic? Even so they had a QB that turned out to be elite and drafted in the second rd.
The simple fact is that if you want to win a SB the numbers OVERWHELMINGLY say you need a really good QB and the numbers say that virtually all of them come from the first rd

I’m looking over the last 10 years of NFL champions…..I count 3 first rounders….Stafford, Mahomes and Peyton Manning.
Where are all of these first round picks at over the last 10 years? Why are they not winning SBs? Manning was drafted in the 90s….in the last 10 years only one person drafted in that span has won a ring…..

In that same span? Nick Foles and Russell Wilson have won a ring. There’s no correlation.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

The only QBs to win a Super Bowl since Dak was drafted are Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Matthew Stafford, and Patrick Mahomes. Just 4 of them. Only 2 of them were first round picks. Stafford was selected first overall but didn't win until he got to his second team. Mitchell Trubisky was the only QB taken ahead of Mahomes. I guess Mitchell Trubisky still has a chance to rewrite history but it seems unlikely he'll catch Mahomes.

Damn you got me by 2 minutes….didn't see it posted. Good stuff.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

“You might miss, so don’t try”

Loser mindset.

They prefer what we have now............getting embarrassed by any playoff-caliber team.
Let them munch on wins against sub-par .500 teams and go homer crazy then run and hide when a real team slaps us around...........hmmmmm how did they feel when the Niners did the nasty 42-10?
The loser mindset is correct................

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Alex Smith sucked.

Tell me what your plan is. (You won't, because you're a coward)

Draft a QB.

Do what you need to do. The Chiefs had to trade up to get Mahomes because they were making the playoffs with Smith.

You play scared. You’re scared of trying. Then have the nerve to call someone a “coward” because they want to move on from your safe space comfort QB.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

fact is he has played lousy or not good in virtually every single Playoff game except against a losing TB team. Now his first one he did good; but he never has since.
There is no evidence that Dak can elevate his game when it really matters.

You can’t say he’s played lousy in every game and then say except 2 lol. That’s not virtually every game then. He has gotten dominated by the 49ers. We know the story.

 

[Denim Chicken]

 

[Hawkeye0202]

You may do that but the point I was making was the Chiefs did not have a top 8 QB in the league and then decided to give up a 1st & a 3rd to draft one. They had a very replaceable QB. Context is often left out. Geno & Baker are making 25 and 33.5mil/yr btw.

The Chiefs also had Andy Reid, arguably the best offensive mind in the NFL not named Shanahan. You guys always use Mahomes who is an exception to the rule. Hell, even he sat a year behind Alex Smith.
But my take is I do not trust drafting a rookie QB and starting him immediately ......call it old school or whatever but I love what the Packers did with Love for example.