Removing The Outlier - QBs

[Toruk_Makto]

Oh, I know. That's what the the thread was about. I just though Romo was going to run away with the league rating if you took out those two really bad games where his back was at issue, and then I looked and saw that Rodgers INTs were still a lot lower after the adjustment. He just takes care of the football.

Rodgers doesn't take risks with the football. Even when he should.

Whispers about caring a bit too much about his low int numbers.

 

[ufcrules1]

That is not my criticism, and it has nothing to do with Romo.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/

Is it s criticism you agree with? From your post I would say you do. Also, that article is complete garbage. That guy sounds like he spent an insane amount of time trying to find stats that makes the greatest QB in football right now look bad. It's downright sad actually.

 

[perrykemp]

The criticism is that when the game is tight or they're behind late in games, most quarterbacks go for broke, trying to do everything they can to come back and win, while Rodgers instead plays it safe. That keeps his stats nice and neat, but it doesn't help his team win very often.

That is not my criticism, and it has nothing to do with Romo.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/

It's a legit criticism -- Aaron Rodgers isn't a QB god and does have faults. Having said that, if you look at his QB rating in the 4th quarter or even his QB rating in the 4th quarter when the score is within 7 and you'll see his overall numbers are still very impressive,

In 2011 his 4th Quarter QB rating when the score was within 7 points was 146.2. In 2012 it was 119.8. In 2013 it was 97.1. In 2014 it was 97.3. Add it altogether and it roughly a 110 average QB rating in close (within 7 points one way or another).

When I <do> think it's worth noting is that Aaron Rodgers doesn't 'elevate' his game in those situations -- he just basically plays his normal game.

 

[burmafrd]

Is it s criticism you agree with? From your post I would say you do. Also, that article is complete garbage. That guy sounds like he spent an insane amount of time trying to find stats that makes the greatest QB in football right now look bad. It's downright sad actually.

what is sad is your pathetic hatred of Romo and your desperate need to elevate ANYONE ELSE when compared to him.

 

[BlindFaith]

Yes, Russell Wilson is consistently worse.

Removing his two worst games doesn't change his ranking much because he had several other games that were just as bad -- his four worst ratings were 47.6, 53.7, 63.9 and 69.4. He also had a 77.5 and 81.9.

Romo's two worst games were a 53.7 and a 60.8. His next lowest was 93.5, and most of his games were 110 or better. He also set NFL records with seven games with a rating higher than 129 and six games higher than 135. (Not even counting his 143.6 in the playoffs.)

You left off Romo's bad game at home against Washington. I don't think you're a fan of QBR, could be wrong, but Romo had a 25 QBR and a 95.7 QR. They lost to Colt McCoy who had a 76.3 QBR and a 94.3 QR.

I know there was some debate on QBR vs QR. In this case, as in many, the QR doesn't tell the story. Romo won the QR yet the team lost. He did have an awful QBR though.

And I'm not trying to make this a Romo thing. He led the league in QBR. Had a very good year.

 

[AbeBeta]

Last night, I was debating a Steeler fan about who had a better year between Romo and Roethlisberger. The debate started when I brought up the two games in which Romo was clearly not healthy (SF and Thanksgiving Day vs PHI). This got me thinking, "If I remove the worst two games from the top QBs and pro-rate them over 16 games, how would their stats look?" Well, take a look:

A 71.4% completion percentage and a passer rating of 123.5. That is insane.

http://all22breakdown.com/?p=3393

All this shows is something that has plagued Romo for years. His is more prone than most elite QBs to the occasional terrible game. All the other QBs on this list are more consistent in their PR meaning that their bad games weren't the sort of stinkers that Romo drops.

 

[ufcrules1]

It's a legit criticism -- Aaron Rodgers isn't a QB god and does have faults. Having said that, if you look at his QB rating in the 4th quarter or even his QB rating in the 4th quarter when the score is within 7 and you'll see his overall numbers are still very impressive,

In 2011 his 4th Quarter QB rating when the score was within 7 points was 146.2. In 2012 it was 119.8. In 2013 it was 97.1. In 2014 it was 97.3. Add it altogether and it roughly a 110 average QB rating in close (within 7 points one way or another).

When I <do> think it's worth noting is that Aaron Rodgers doesn't 'elevate' his game in those situations -- he just basically plays his normal game.

Perry,
The thing with stats though is you can look at them a thousand different ways and come to multiple different conclusions. We can look at the stats you pointed out with regards to Aaron Rodgers 4th quarter rating when the score was within 7 and conclude that his numbers are getting worse but is his overall game getting worse? He was the MVP last year for a reason. We could probably find other stats where his game has improved as well. Can this guy lead his team and win super bowls? Yes. Is he the best QB in football right now? Yes. Then who cares about some weird off the wall stats about him? lol

 

[AdamJT13]

You left off Romo's bad game at home against Washington.

I didn't leave off anything. This thread was about Romo's passer rating, and my comment was about his passer rating. His passer rating in that game was 95.7.

I don't think you're a fan of QBR, could be wrong, but Romo had a 25 QBR and a 95.7 QR. They lost to Colt McCoy who had a 76.3 QBR and a 94.3 QR.

I know there was some debate on QBR vs QR. In this case, as in many, the QR doesn't tell the story. Romo won the QR yet the team lost. He did have an awful QBR though.

There is no such thing as QR -- it's PASSER rating, not "quarterback rating."

 

[AdamJT13]

It's a legit criticism -- Aaron Rodgers isn't a QB god and does have faults. Having said that, if you look at his QB rating in the 4th quarter or even his QB rating in the 4th quarter when the score is within 7 and you'll see his overall numbers are still very impressive,

In 2011 his 4th Quarter QB rating when the score was within 7 points was 146.2. In 2012 it was 119.8. In 2013 it was 97.1. In 2014 it was 97.3. Add it altogether and it roughly a 110 average QB rating in close (within 7 points one way or another).

When I <do> think it's worth noting is that Aaron Rodgers doesn't 'elevate' his game in those situations -- he just basically plays his normal game.

If you read the 538 article, the criticism applies more when he's behind by more than one touchdown and needs a big comeback. It's not that he doesn't "elevate" his game in those situations, it's that he doesn't CHANGE his game when most quarterbacks do. He is averse to taking risks even when a risky approach is the best way to TRY to win the game. He still puts up good stats in those situations, but they don't lead to wins because the only way to win is often to take chances against defenses designed to stop the big plays.

 

[percyhoward]

When I <do> think it's worth noting is that Aaron Rodgers doesn't 'elevate' his game in those situations -- he just basically plays his normal game.

Rodgers is the best QB in football, and he is so good that his team isn't behind very often late in games. But he turns into a different player when he's behind late in a close game. His rating drops almost 12 points, his TD/INT ratio is less than 2.00, and he has almost twice as many sacks as TD.

These numbers are since 2008, when Rodgers entered the league. They include postseason.

Rodgers
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
158 of 253 2104 yd 13 td 7 int 24 sacks 94.4 rating (86.4, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 8.7
INT % 2.7
TD/INT 1.86

Romo
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
216 of 347 2543 yd 18 td 6 int 10 sacks 97.6 rating (92.0, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 2.8
INT % 1.7
TD/INT 3.00

Trailing in "Late and Close" Situations
Differences from Career Numbers (since 2008)
pass rating
Rodgers -11.5
Romo -0.2

TD/INT ratio
Rodgers -2.11
Romo + 0.54

INT% (negative is better)
Rodgers +1.0
Romo -0.5

sack % (negative is better)
Rodgers +1.0
Romo -3.8

 

[Afigueroa22]

Rodgers doesn't take risks with the football. Even when he should.

Whispers about caring a bit too much about his low int numbers.

I actually remember one game where Troy was broadcasting and said something along the lines of that during a game.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I actually remember one game where Troy was broadcasting and said something along the lines of that during a game.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/

 

[percyhoward]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/skeptical-football-the-aaron-rodgers-enigma/

Interesting article that focuses more on the late-and-lopsided aspect than the late-and-close. Here's an update on the W-L when trailing by 9+ in the 2nd half, with some context.

Brady 19-38 (.333)
PManning 21-57 (.256)
Romo 10-32 (.238)
Brees 7-33 (.175)
Rivers 10-47 (.175)
Roethlisberger 8-41 (.163)
EManning 11-58 (.159)
Ryan 3-36 (.076)
Rodgers 0-25 (.000)

The Packers still haven't won a game with Rodgers when they trail by more than one score in the 2nd half. If Hanna falls on Cobb's fumble on the kick return in the 2nd half, we get the ball at their 23, and a FG puts us up by 11.

 

[perrykemp]

Interesting article that focuses more on the late-and-lopsided aspect than the late-and-close. Here's an update on the W-L when trailing by 9+ in the 2nd half, with some context.

Brady 19-38 (.333)
PManning 21-57 (.256)
Romo 10-32 (.238)
Brees 7-33 (.175)
Rivers 10-47 (.175)
Roethlisberger 8-41 (.163)
EManning 11-58 (.159)
Ryan 3-36 (.076)
Rodgers 0-25 (.000)

The Packers still haven't won a game with Rodgers when they trail by more than one score in the 2nd half. If Hanna falls on Cobb's fumble on the kick return in the 2nd half, we get the ball at their 23, and a FG puts us up by 11.

Really interesting stats Adam. Thank for pulling these together.

Rodgers not winning any of these games is very surprising.

I'm also surprised at the low win rate for guys like Big Ben (16%), Eli (15%), and Brees (17%). You add them together with Rodgers and those guys have 6 Superbowl victories.

The statistician in me screams to spend some time digging deeper into Rodgers stats. If he has lost all 25 games where he trailed by 9+ points in the half, and we know that Rodgers had lost only 33 games in his entire career, it must mean that he must have some really incredible stats going in the other direction -- ie he must almost never lose games when he has a lead of any sort in the 2nd half.

 

[Everson24]

All this shows is something that has plagued Romo for years. His is more prone than most elite QBs to the occasional terrible game. All the other QBs on this list are more consistent in their PR meaning that their bad games weren't the sort of stinkers that Romo drops.

True, But he also leads every other QB if you remove each QB's two best games. Tony Romo is vastly underated, and most of it comes from the national media propaganda.

 

[ufcrules1]

Rodgers is the best QB in football, and he is so good that his team isn't behind very often late in games.

That is all you really needed to say. He is the best QB in the game and the vast majority of the time HE puts his team in a very good position to win games. The rest is just random fluff that tries to compare him with Romo which isn't even fair to Rodgers. Rodgers is on a whole other level than Romo. If they were both on the same team Romo would be holding the clipboard... Let's be honest. We would already have our 6th super bowl trophy as well.

 

[perrykemp]

That is all you really needed to say. He is the best QB in the game and the vast majority of the time HE puts his team in a very good position to win games. The rest is just random fluff that tries to compare him with Romo which isn't even fair to Rodgers. Rodgers is on a whole other level than Romo. If they were both on the same team Romo would be holding the clipboard... Let's be honest. We would already have our 6th super bowl trophy as well.

ufc, it's not a crime to point out Rodger's warts. He has them -- he isn't perfect and his 4th quarter / trailing late in games stats is probably at the top of the list.

Like I said earlier, digging through Rodger's metrics is a staticians dream. You could write hundreds of blog post about some of the very odd and unique stats in his career.

How about this one for example: In 2012 Rodgers led the NFL in QB rating (108.0) AND was the most sacked QB in the NFL (51). In 2009 he had a QB rating of 103.2 AND was the most sacked QB in the NFL.

I'm curious to know if any other QB in NFL history has led the NFL in QB rating and also been the most sacked QB in the league.

 

[BlindFaith]

If you read the 538 article, the criticism applies more when he's behind by more than one touchdown and needs a big comeback. It's not that he doesn't "elevate" his game in those situations, it's that he doesn't CHANGE his game when most quarterbacks do. He is averse to taking risks even when a risky approach is the best way to TRY to win the game. He still puts up good stats in those situations, but they don't lead to wins because the only way to win is often to take chances against defenses designed to stop the big plays.

Trailing by 9+ starting the second half is a pretty open ended stat.

Since we have the three biggest stat guys posting in this thread, I'd be interested to see if anyone can provide the data to show how that second quarter actually played out.

Of the guys listed, can you provide the number of times the offense scored to take the lead in those same games in the second half? If the offense scores to take the lead only to have the defense give the lead back up, it's hard to really blame the offense.

Also, it would be interesting to see what the score was going into the second half. Were they blowouts? Was it like 3 - 14? Was it 14 - 24? Was it 0 -21? Just trying to get a sense of whether the offense was doing anything in the first half. Was the 9+ deficit dramatically more than just 9 points.

If you have a good reference to where I can find this data I'd do the work.

 

[AbeBeta]

True, But he also leads every other QB if you remove each QB's two best games. Tony Romo is vastly underated, and most of it comes from the national media propaganda.

I don't see him as under rated. He's clearly in a tier below the elite guys like Brady and Rodgers.

The reason why media get on him is that throughout his career there have been big games where he's made big errors. He wins us a ton of games. But he also drops a couple stinkers in each season. Last year we were good enough to overcome those but in other years, he's had huge turnovers in spots that cost us games. That's why media are critical if him.

 

[percyhoward]

Really interesting stats Adam. Percy.

Right, it's important that he's not trailing in the 2nd half very often. Rodgers has by far the best rating after 3 quarters.

This is the same list of players from my previous post.

1st-3rd qtr
min 2000 attt
Rodgers 107.4
PManning 99.7
Rivers 97.8
Brees 97.7
Brady 97.2
Romo 95.9
Roethlisberger 95.3
Ryan 94.3
EManning 82.8