Removing The Outlier - QBs

[perrykemp]

Gotcha.

Rodgers still can't overcome a 2 score deficit. Because he won't, apparently, take any risks. I wonder if opposing coordinators know this and play him more aggressively in those scenarios.

On the other hand how much of it is circumstantial?

Look at the playoffs last year:

• Cowboys - Packers playoff game: Packers were down 8 points with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter. If anything Rodgers played better when trailing in that game than anything else. He led them back to victory (Dez catch not withstanding).
• Seattle - Packers playoff game: Packers were down 3 to Seattle with just 1:25 left in the 4th quarter. He probably played his best that day when driving down for a FG that tied and sent it into overtime. Obviously Seattle won the coin-toss and won the game.

I also think back to Rodger's first playoff game, that amazing shootout vs Arizona in 2009 where the Cardinals beat the Packers 51-45. Packers were down by 21 points (31-10) in the 1st half and Rodgers them back to tie it 45-45 and send it into overtime only to lose.

Two of those games were losses, however, in these 3 playoff examples it sure didn't seem like Rodgers was playing conservative at the end of games when he HAD perform. I'm not say he played particularly well in these games, however, he didn't seem to be avoiding risk either.

 

[dstovall5]

That is all you really needed to say. He is the best QB in the game and the vast majority of the time HE puts his team in a very good position to win games. The rest is just random fluff that tries to compare him with Romo which isn't even fair to Rodgers. Rodgers is on a whole other level than Romo. If they were both on the same team Romo would be holding the clipboard... Let's be honest. We would already have our 6th super bowl trophy as well.

What's the point of making this comment? If Brady, Manning, Montana, Young, ect; all played on the same team as Rodgers in their PRIME they'd all be holding the clipboard. At this rate, Rodgers will smash all QB records and go down as the GOAT. As for our 6th ring, that's highly debatable. Honestly anyone who watched that GB vs Dallas playoff game, I don't see how they could come away from that game thinking the difference in the W/L was due to Rodgers outperforming Romo.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

On the other hand how much of it is circumstantial?

Look at the playoffs last year:

• Cowboys - Packers playoff game: Packers were down 8 points with 4 minutes left to go in the 3rd quarter. If anything Rodgers played better when trailing in that game than anything else. He led them back to victory (Dez catch not withstanding).
• Seattle - Packers playoff game: Packers were down 3 to Seattle with just 1:25 left in the 4th quarter. He probably played his best that day when driving down for a FG that tied and sent it into overtime. Obviously Seattle won the coin-toss and won the game.

I also think back to Rodger's first playoff game, that amazing shootout vs Arizona in 2009 where the Cardinals beat the Packers 51-45. Packers were down by 21 points (31-10) in the 1st half and Rodgers them back to tie it 45-45 and send it into overtime only to lose.

Two of those games were losses, however, in these 3 playoff examples it sure didn't seem like Rodgers was playing conservative at the end of games when he HAD perform. I'm not say he played particularly well in these games, however, he didn't seem to be avoiding risk either.

One score game against two score game is the cutoff.

And I mean 25 games for Rodgers in the situation down 2 scores in the 2nd half and he doesn't have one come from behind win? For the best QB in football? And then we have data showing him being less aggressive in those situations(int rate). Smoke meet fire.

 

[AbeBeta]

And other QBS don't have bad games? I can think of quite a few with Ben,Brady and Peyton. Romo's bad games are just made more public and ridiculed more.

But these analyses show that Romo had two really bad games last year. Two real stinkers that dramatically change his PR. The others did not experience the same sort of lows which is why taking their two worst out didn't change PR much

 

[AbeBeta]

love how you Romo haters stick together no matter what. Statistically and in the real world you get owned again and again but never falter in your pathological hatred.
The GB fan trying to minimize Rodgers failings in comebacks is also fun to read.

And how you Romo haters always blame him never anyone else- like Crayton stopping on a route or Fasano dropping one in his hands, etc. Romo getting his foot stepped on by his O lineman. And so forth. It is always only his fault when the boys loose. Truly pathetic.

I've never been a Romo hater. I love the guy. I realize fully that those horrible plays come from exactly the same place that the thrilling ones do. You are chasing the wrong car here little doggie

 

[BlindFaith]

But these analyses show that Romo had two really bad games last year. Two real stinkers that dramatically change his PR. The others did not experience the same sort of lows which is why taking their two worst out didn't change PR much

For me, QBR makes more sense to use when evaluating QBs. Romo had another bad game based on QBR, the Washington game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

See how the QBs compare, Passer Rating to QBR. QBR does add value for running QBs. Russell Wilson is a little higher on the QBR scale. Kaepernick is on the QBR list but not the Passer Rating list. But I'd rather have Kaepernick than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Alex Smith. QBR doesn't just factor in QB rushes. They also look at situations and assign value based on who contributed most to a play. A QB who dumps the ball off to a running back who runs 70 yards for a TD is far different than a QB who sits back in the pocket and launches a ball 50 yards down field to a WR who then walks in for a 70 yard TD.

Passer Rating---------------QBR
Tony Romo, QB------------- 113.2 Tony Romo, DAL------------- 83.6
Aaron Rodgers, QB-------- 112.2 Aaron Rodgers, GB--------- 77.4
Ben Roethlisberger, QB--- 103.3 Peyton Manning, DEN------ 75.1
Peyton Manning, QB------ 101.5 Tom Brady, NE--------------- 74.6
Tom Brady, QB-------------- 97.4 Drew Brees, NO------------- 73.4
Drew Brees, QB------------ 97.0 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT---- 72.1
Andrew Luck, QB----------- 96.5 Matt Ryan, ATL--------------- 71.0
Carson Palmer, QB-------- 95.6 Russell Wilson, SEA-------- 70.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB------- 95.3 Philip Rivers, SD------------- 70.5
Russell Wilson, QB-------- 95.0 Joe Flacco, BAL------------- 67.0
Matt Ryan, QB-------------- 93.9 Eli Manning, NYG----------- 65.9
Philip Rivers, QB----------- 93.8 Nick Foles, PHI--------------- 62.7
Alex Smith, QB-------------- 93.4 Andrew Luck, IND----------- 61.5
Ryan Tannehill, QB-------- 92.8 Colin Kaepernick, SF------- 60.2
Eli Manning, QB------------ 92.1 Mark Sanchez, PHI--------- 59.4
Joe Flacco, QB-------------- 91.0 Ryan Tannehill, MIA--------- 58.0
Jay Cutler, QB--------------- 88.6 Teddy Bridgewater, MIN--- 56.9
Mark Sanchez, QB--------- 88.4 Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU----- 56.7
Kyle Orton, QB-------------- 87.8 Alex Smith, KC--------------- 55.0

 

[BlindFaith]

One score game against two score game is the cutoff.

And I mean 25 games for Rodgers in the situation down 2 scores in the 2nd half and he doesn't have one come from behind win? For the best QB in football? And then we have data showing him being less aggressive in those situations(int rate). Smoke meet fire.

Take a look at how many interceptions Rodgers had in those 4 games. (5) Where's the smoke again? And I find it funny that we are trying to determine how good a QB is by saying that he doesn't throw enough interceptions. smh

Also, in a couple of those 4 games GB scored at least 16 points. Seattle (16) and NO (23). The defense gave up 36 and 44 in those two games. Seattle and Buffalo were two of the best defense in the league last year. Both games on the road.

Detroit is the real stinker game. And all teams/QBs will have one or two of those games.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Take a look at how many interceptions Rodgers had in those 4 games. (5) Where's the smoke again? And I find it funny that we are trying to determine how good a QB is by saying that he doesn't throw enough interceptions. smh

Also, in a couple of those 4 games GB scored at least 16 points. Seattle (16) and NO (23). The defense gave up 36 and 44 in those two games. Seattle and Buffalo were two of the best defense in the league last year. Both games on the road.

Detroit is the real stinker game. And all teams/QBs will have one or two of those games.

What part of Rodgers int rate drops dramatically in the 2ndnhalf when down 2 scores don't you understand?

What part of other qbs in that same situation see their int rate spike don't you understand?

What part of other qbs have had dramatically more success in those situations probably because they take more risks don't you understand?

 

[blindzebra]

What part of Rodgers int rate drops dramatically in the 2ndnhalf when down 2 scores don't you understand?

What part of other qbs in that same situation see their int rate spike don't you understand?

What part of other qbs have had dramatically more success in those situations probably because they take more risks don't you understand?

We have a few posters that always take the anti-cowboys stance and keep repeating the same thing over and over...BF and KJJ are birds of a feather (if not the same bird)...and all they do is troll threads. Facts don't matter. Mountains of proof gets ignored. It is a complete waste of time trying to reason with them, because they are not here to discuss, they are here to annoy.

 

[jobberone]

Right.. but this was Romo's best year ever. Wilson is just getting started. I would take Wilson in a second right now over Romo.

Well, you are unabashedly consistent......ly wrong. It's difficult for me to think you actually believe that.

 

[5Stars]

I would love to have a time machine and go back some years and have Brady, Rodgers, Eli, or any of the other QB's that the Romo haters love to praise play behind or with the teams that Romo has had to play on! Then tell us how good they were...

It makes my head spin to hear fans think about how great a QB is, yet don't understand the concept of "team". Little Eli? That poor fool would have never made it to a SB with the oline and defense that Romo has had during his early years, yet the team was still in the running at the end of the season...the team just could not overcome, yet, it was all Romo's fault.

I remember last year when our biggest Romo hater, ufcrules, got all giddy about the start that the Cowboys were making after winning 6 in a row after the first game loss to the 49'ers. He came on the forum saying, "oh boy, Cowboy fans...let's all unite...let's all be happy fans...lets all get along...lets all pee our pants..." etc. And, he will do the same if the Cowboys are good again this season.

Him and others like him that do nothing but dog the Cowboys every chance they get will want to be the first in line to eat at the table if the Cowboys were to win the SB. In the mean time, they will put Romo down at every chance they get. Yeah....nice fan.

Oh, and this little gem from KJJ..."Romo could not even beat a one legged Rodgers". Another fan. smh

I'm glad I'm a FAN because I played on teams and know the dynamics of the concept.

But, if the Cowboys win...oh boy....they will want to party down with the rest of us FANS. Pathetic...

 

[BlindFaith]

What part of Rodgers int rate drops dramatically in the 2ndnhalf when down 2 scores don't you understand?

What part of other qbs in that same situation see their int rate spike don't you understand?

What part of other qbs have had dramatically more success in those situations probably because they take more risks don't you understand?

Are you really that closed minded? Do except every random stat at face value?

And what kind of generic stat is down by 9+ in the second half? When in the second half? The start? The end of the 3rd? Two minute warning? Do you understand why I'm asking that?

And what does 9+ mean? They are down 9? 14? 35? Tell me how many QBs are going to win down 14 with two minutes to play. Do you understand that question?

And where is the stat that shows how many INTs these QBs throw when in that nebulous down by 9+ at some point in time in the second half?
I saw this posted by Percy
Rodgers
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
158 of 253 2104 yd 13 td 7 int 24 sacks 94.4 rating (86.4, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 8.7
INT % 2.7
TD/INT 1.86

Romo
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
216 of 347 2543 yd 18 td 6 int 10 sacks 97.6 rating (92.0, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 2.8
INT % 1.7
TD/INT 3.00

Looks like Rodgers threw more interceptions down by one score or less. Or does that make him a bad QB? I'm confused as to when throwing interceptions is good or bad. Kinda like I get confused as to if we should be eating eggs now or not. And does that make Romo more worried about his stats?

How about doing some of your own research.

In those games for each of those QBs, show me:
1. What was the actual point differential.
2. What time was remaining when said point differential occurred.
3. Did the given QB ever tie or exceed the point differential to only have the defense allow another score to lose the game?
4. What were the yards per attempt by the QB when trying to overcome said point differential.
5. Were said yards per attempt higher than average yards per attempt?
6. What was the defensive ranking of the team the QB was playing against.
7. Was the QB injured?
8. Was the game on the road or away?

Do you understand why one should ask those questions?

Yes, on the surface it is interesting that Rodgers has never won a game in this extremely undefined category of being down some amount of points over 8 at some point in the second half.

 

[AbeBeta]

For me, QBR makes more sense to use when evaluating QBs. Romo had another bad game based on QBR, the Washington game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

See how the QBs compare, Passer Rating to QBR. QBR does add value for running QBs. Russell Wilson is a little higher on the QBR scale. Kaepernick is on the QBR list but not the Passer Rating list. But I'd rather have Kaepernick than Ryan Fitzpatrick or Alex Smith. QBR doesn't just factor in QB rushes. They also look at situations and assign value based on who contributed most to a play. A QB who dumps the ball off to a running back who runs 70 yards for a TD is far different than a QB who sits back in the pocket and launches a ball 50 yards down field to a WR who then walks in for a 70 yard TD.

Passer Rating---------------QBR
Tony Romo, QB------------- 113.2 Tony Romo, DAL------------- 83.6
Aaron Rodgers, QB-------- 112.2 Aaron Rodgers, GB--------- 77.4
Ben Roethlisberger, QB--- 103.3 Peyton Manning, DEN------ 75.1
Peyton Manning, QB------ 101.5 Tom Brady, NE--------------- 74.6
Tom Brady, QB-------------- 97.4 Drew Brees, NO------------- 73.4
Drew Brees, QB------------ 97.0 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT---- 72.1
Andrew Luck, QB----------- 96.5 Matt Ryan, ATL--------------- 71.0
Carson Palmer, QB-------- 95.6 Russell Wilson, SEA-------- 70.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB------- 95.3 Philip Rivers, SD------------- 70.5
Russell Wilson, QB-------- 95.0 Joe Flacco, BAL------------- 67.0
Matt Ryan, QB-------------- 93.9 Eli Manning, NYG----------- 65.9
Philip Rivers, QB----------- 93.8 Nick Foles, PHI--------------- 62.7
Alex Smith, QB-------------- 93.4 Andrew Luck, IND----------- 61.5
Ryan Tannehill, QB-------- 92.8 Colin Kaepernick, SF------- 60.2
Eli Manning, QB------------ 92.1 Mark Sanchez, PHI--------- 59.4
Joe Flacco, QB-------------- 91.0 Ryan Tannehill, MIA--------- 58.0
Jay Cutler, QB--------------- 88.6 Teddy Bridgewater, MIN--- 56.9
Mark Sanchez, QB--------- 88.4 Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU----- 56.7
Kyle Orton, QB-------------- 87.8 Alex Smith, KC--------------- 55.0

So we remain back on the "Romo had a great year" story. That's absolutely correct. However I'd bet his QBR is lower in other years where he had gaudy PR numbers. Likely because of those of key situation turnovers - I'm assuming QBR dings fumbling QB in the way it boosts great runners

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Are you really that closed minded? Do except every random stat at face value?

And what kind of generic stat is down by 9+ in the second half? When in the second half? The start? The end of the 3rd? Two minute warning? Do you understand why I'm asking that?

And what does 9+ mean? They are down 9? 14? 35? Tell me how many QBs are going to win down 14 with two minutes to play. Do you understand that question?

And where is the stat that shows how many INTs these QBs throw when in that nebulous down by 9+ at some point in time in the second half?
I saw this posted by Percy
Rodgers
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
158 of 253 2104 yd 13 td 7 int 24 sacks 94.4 rating (86.4, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 8.7
INT % 2.7
TD/INT 1.86

Romo
4th qtr or OT, down by one score or less
216 of 347 2543 yd 18 td 6 int 10 sacks 97.6 rating (92.0, counting sacks as incompletions)
sack % 2.8
INT % 1.7
TD/INT 3.00

Looks like Rodgers threw more interceptions down by one score or less. Or does that make him a bad QB? I'm confused as to when throwing interceptions is good or bad. Kinda like I get confused as to if we should be eating eggs now or not. And does that make Romo more worried about his stats?

How about doing some of your own research.

In those games for each of those QBs, show me:
1. What was the actual point differential.
2. What time was remaining when said point differential occurred.
3. Did the given QB ever tie or exceed the point differential to only have the defense allow another score to lose the game?
4. What were the yards per attempt by the QB when trying to overcome said point differential.
5. Were said yards per attempt higher than average yards per attempt?
6. What was the defensive ranking of the team the QB was playing against.
7. Was the QB injured?
8. Was the game on the road or away?

Do you understand why one should ask those questions?

Yes, on the surface it is interesting that Rodgers has never won a game in this extremely undefined category of being down some amount of points over 8 at some point in the second half.

Please go back and read the article I posted.

Thanks.

 

[BlindFaith]

We have a few posters that always take the anti-cowboys stance and keep repeating the same thing over and over...BF and KJJ are birds of a feather (if not the same bird)...and all they do is troll threads. Facts don't matter. Mountains of proof gets ignored. It is a complete waste of time trying to reason with them, because they are not here to discuss, they are here to annoy.

Yeah, that's me, a troll. I just call BS when I read it. I love the Cowboys. I moved to Texas 20+ years ago just so I could have access to a newspaper that could provide more than a two sentence recap of a game. I remember my first trip to Texas Stadium like it was yesterday.

I am older now. I don't accept things at face value. I don't have blind faith anymore. I've learned that the more questions you ask the more truth actually comes out. If that's annoying, so be it. Lot of folks don't like being told there wrong. No matter how you do it. Some of them even act like children when you do...

 

[blindzebra]

Yeah, that's me, a troll. I just call BS when I read it. I love the Cowboys. I moved to Texas 20+ years ago just so I could have access to a newspaper that could provide more than a two sentence recap of a game. I remember my first trip to Texas Stadium like it was yesterday.

I am older now. I don't accept things at face value. I don't have blind faith anymore. I've learned that the more questions you ask the more truth actually comes out. If that's annoying, so be it. Lot of folks don't like being told there wrong. No matter how you do it. Some of them even act like children when you do...

For you to tell someone they're wrong requires that you be right...that has yet to happen.

 

[BlindFaith]

So we remain back on the "Romo had a great year" story. That's absolutely correct. However I'd bet his QBR is lower in other years where he had gaudy PR numbers. Likely because of those of key situation turnovers - I'm assuming QBR dings fumbling QB in the way it boosts great runners

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6909058/nfl-total-qbr-faq

Yes, fumbles are in the rating. But it's not a huge influence on the over all QBR. Just like Russell Wilson wasn't dramatically better in the QBR than he was Passer Rating.

And yes, previous years he did have a lower QBR than he did PR. Which begs a question: For those that didn't think the run game was a major factor in Romo being more efficient, then why was this his best year statistically? And if it wasn't the run game that was the major factor, then was it just that Romo wasn't as good the previous years? Hmmm...

 

[BlindFaith]

Please go back and read the article I posted.

Thanks.

I read it the firs time and it doesn't answer anything. Its the basis for this whole statistically undefined blackhole of a poorly vetted subject.

It does say this though:
In a surprise, I found that Rodgers actually has a history of being great in comeback situations like the one he faced against the Dolphins. In the fourth quarter, with his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead (that is, down 4 points to 8 points), only Peyton Manning has led his team to a higher percentage of touchdown drives:

So if he's down by 8 in the fourth quarter he is great, second best to only a HOFer. But if he's down by some undefined amount greater than 8 at some undefined point in the second half he is awful and doesn't throw enough interceptions.

Yeah, Rodgers sucks. It's so clear now.

 

[AbeBeta]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6909058/nfl-total-qbr-faq

Yes, fumbles are in the rating. But it's not a huge influence on the over all QBR. Just like Russell Wilson wasn't dramatically better in the QBR than he was Passer Rating.

And yes, previous years he did have a lower QBR than he did PR. Which begs a question: For those that didn't think the run game was a major factor in Romo being more efficient, then why was this his best year statistically? And if it wasn't the run game that was the major factor, then was it just that Romo wasn't as good the previous years? Hmmm...

I don't want to know what people who don't think the run game was a major factor have to say. Largely because it is a cometely untenable argument.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I read it the firs time and it doesn't answer anything. Its the basis for this whole statistically undefined blackhole of a poorly vetted subject.

It does say this though:
In a surprise, I found that Rodgers actually has a history of being great in comeback situations like the one he faced against the Dolphins. In the fourth quarter, with his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead (that is, down 4 points to 8 points), only Peyton Manning has led his team to a higher percentage of touchdown drives:

So if he's down by 8 in the fourth quarter he is great, second best to only a HOFer. But if he's down by some undefined amount greater than 8 at some undefined point in the second half he is awful and doesn't throw enough interceptions.

Yeah, Rodgers sucks. It's so clear now.

The old strawman argument. Please quote a single person that stated Rodgers sucks.

Now go back and read more than those sentences of the article.