Review of LB Anthony Hitchens against LSU

[FuzzyLumpkins]

How is he going to be a Day 1 starter?

Beat out another one of the LB to start would be my guess.

 

[tm1119]

You have to love how Risen makes it all about him. Risens' view defines whether it is a reach for all the world. If he had mocked something then it is meaningful in his deluded world.

If the club say that he was rated in the fourth round then he was rated in the fourth round. Ranking him there ahead of Smith and Pierre is not a 'reach.' If they end up being wrong in their rankings then its a gross misevaluation of talent.

Ahh so everyone else is wrong and the cowboys are right? Got ya, makes perfect sense. I mean how could a front office with such a great track record possibly be wrong?

It was a reach and you would have no problem saying it if any other team took it. I'm not gonna dwell on it and I hope the kid succeeds and proves everyone wrong , but saying its not a reach just because it's your favorite team is ridiculous.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ahh so everyone else is wrong and the cowboys are right? Got ya, makes perfect sense. I mean how could a front office with such a great track record possibly be wrong?

It was a reach and you would have no problem saying it if any other team took it. I'm not gonna dwell on it and I hope the kid succeeds and proves everyone wrong , but saying its not a reach just because it's your favorite team is ridiculous.

This post is very stupid. Everyone else? Have to love people appealing to the bandwagon.

it has nothing to do with my like or dislike the team. It comes down to the objective reality of how the Cowboys draft board. Either they rated him as a fourth round pick like they claim ahead of Smith and Pierre or they did not.

If they have someone ranked in the fourth round then they have him rated in the fourth round. Selecting him in the fourth round is not a 'reach.' It means they did a poor job evaluating the talent.

There is no objective board to go by and fan consensus is just about worthless. Risen Star mock drafts as the standard by which to judge things are about as stupid as one can get.

 

[Idgit]

You have to love how Risen makes it all about him. Risens' view defines whether it is a reach for all the world. If he had mocked something then it is meaningful in his deluded world.

If the club say that he was rated in the fourth round then he was rated in the fourth round. Ranking him there ahead of Smith and Pierre is not a 'reach.' If they end up being wrong in their rankings then its a gross misevaluation of talent.

I'd say there're two considerations for every pick: does he end up generating the expected return where you picked him, and: did you pick him at a point where he represented good value (ie, how much later could you have picked the same player).

In most players' cases, only time answers question one. You can never say with any certainly how other teams evaluated a guy in relation to question two, but my guess in Hitchens' case is that we took him earlier than he probably would have gone. I'm ok with that--we obviously were considering the rest of the league there if we took him before Street who reportedly had a third round grade himself. But I do think its a legitimate question to ask.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Reach to me implies that he was taken higher than he was rated. Even if he were the highest LB left on the board if he were rated as a 6th/7th rounder then it's still a reach if he was taken in the 4th.

Who gets to make the rating chart that we all follow?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I'd say there're two considerations for every pick: does he end up generating the expected return where you picked him, and: did you pick him at a point where he represented good value (ie, how much later could you have picked the same player).

In most players' cases, only time answers question one. You can never say with any certainly how other teams evaluated a guy in relation to question two, but my guess in Hitchens' case is that we took him earlier than he probably would have gone. I'm ok with that--we obviously were considering the rest of the league there if we took him before Street who reportedly had a third round grade himself. But I do think its a legitimate question to ask.

I have busted out multiple sources since he was drafted indicating that the 9ers Seahawks Rams and Cards all were interested and the seachickens in particular were ready to draft him.

 

[Idgit]

Ahh so everyone else is wrong and the cowboys are right? Got ya, makes perfect sense. I mean how could a front office with such a great track record possibly be wrong?

It was a reach and you would have no problem saying it if any other team took it. I'm not gonna dwell on it and I hope the kid succeeds and proves everyone wrong , but saying its not a reach just because it's your favorite team is ridiculous.

For the record, every team drafts players who look like reaches relative to publicly-available projections. And every year, players outperform draft projections by a wide margin. I don't see why hoping our fourth rounder does so is unusual in any way. Nor do I see why people have problems with other fans building such arguments.

I'd be willing to bet a detailed analysis of one of our draft picks' games that was not a glowing evaluation would get a ton of good football discussion. We rarely get those types of threads, though. I'll let others speculate as to the reasons for that, but it is a lot easier to criticize a detailed analysis than it is to provide one.

 

[Idgit]

I have busted out multiple sources since he was drafted indicating that the 9ers Seahawks Rams and Cards all were interested and the seachickens in particular were ready to draft him.

I know. And judging by Dallas' actions, I'd say its a safe bet the team believed that. But it's also true that many teams site such anecdotes re a questioned pick. It's hard to say what's true and what's draft positioning.

 

[MikeT22]

Who gets to make the rating chart that we all follow?

It's called a consensus. When was the last time we took a player at least 2 rounds higher than the consensus of prognosticators/experts had him going and it worked out for us? Skylar Green? Isaiah Stanback? David Arkin? AOA? Jason Williams?
Yeah, we really have a history of going against the grain and proving everyone else wrong.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's called a consensus. When was the last time we took a player at least 2 rounds higher than the consensus of prognosticators/experts had him going and it worked out for us? Skylar Green? Isaiah Stanback? David Arkin? AOA? Jason Williams?
Yeah, we really have a history of going against the grain and proving everyone else wrong.

All of those guys were projected in the midround areas. I invite you to go peruse NFLdraftscout and the like. For example,

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=73155&draftyear=2009&genpos=olb

There is really one comparison where we were dramatically off from what the cottage industry and that is Matt Johnson and he was hurt more than anything else.

Nice attempt at senastionalism though. The success rate of 4th round picks is very very low as in 10%. Listing failures doesn't say much because every team has a lot of them. It is about success rate. Wilber is another 4th rounder that may stick for example.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I know. And judging by Dallas' actions, I'd say its a safe bet the team believed that. But it's also true that many teams site such anecdotes re a questioned pick. It's hard to say what's true and what's draft positioning.

I know you have watched him and just don't like him. i can respect that. What I have issue with are people trying to appeal to the bandwagon as if there is a legitimate consensus as to how prospects 100-200 are ranked.

 

[Idgit]

I know you have watched him and just don't like him. i can respect that. What I have issue with are people trying to appeal to the bandwagon as if there is a legitimate consensus as to how prospects 100-200 are ranked.

Yeah. I also freely admit that I'm not capable of evaluating all that much, anyway. And I agree with your point, generally. Because it's a logical argument and those tend to be the best arguments.

 

[Proximo]

It comes down to the objective reality of how the Cowboys draft board. Either they rated him as a fourth round pick like they claim ahead of Smith and Pierre or they did not.

If they have someone ranked in the fourth round then they have him rated in the fourth round. Selecting him in the fourth round is not a 'reach.' It means they did a poor job evaluating the talent.

There is no objective board to go by and fan consensus is just about worthless.

This post right here really needs repeated and emphasized. I think people are confusing "reaching" and outright "misevaluation of talent".

And the reality is we don't know for a fact what the draft boards of 32 teams looked like, so all of this "reach" baloney is overhyped speculation.

 

[MikeT22]

All of those guys were projected in the midround areas. I invite you to go peruse NFLdraftscout and the like. For example,

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=73155&draftyear=2009&genpos=olb

There is really one comparison where we were dramatically off from what the cottage industry and that is Matt Johnson and he was hurt more than anything else.

Nice attempt at senastionalism though. The success rate of 4th round picks is very very low as in 10%. Listing failures doesn't say much because every team has a lot of them. It is about success rate. Wilber is another 4th rounder that may stick for example.

It doesn't help the success rate when we consistently reach for 6th/7th round talent in the 4th round. But at least we have a backup like Wilber to hold up as the only example in the last decade.

 

[Alexander]

I have busted out multiple sources since he was drafted indicating that the 9ers Seahawks Rams and Cards all were interested and the seachickens in particular were ready to draft him.

And people "busted out multiple sources" back in the day that the Vikings and Raiders were ready to jump Dallas for the right to draft Quincy Carter.

Did that make things any better?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And people "busted out multiple sources" back in the day that the Vikings and Raiders were ready to jump Dallas for the right to draft Quincy Carter.

Did that make things any better?

I do not recall that at all.

My point is that there is no consensus that he was not worth that pick and that he was not going to be available later.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It doesn't help the success rate when we consistently reach for 6th/7th round talent in the 4th round. But at least we have a backup like Wilber to hold up as the only example in the last decade.

Way to ignore almost all of what I said and then repeat yourself.

The last and really only times recently that the Cowboys picked someone way out of whack from the prognosticators has been Matt Johnson and Travis Frederick. Matt Johnson has not stayed healthy so may well bust but Frederick has done rather well.

You listed a bunch of guys that were picked in the area that most people figured they would be. They became busted mid round picks. You ignored my point about efficiency.

Our picks outside of the top 100 in the past few years have been: Webb, Randle, Holloman, Wilber, Johnson, Coale, Hanna, McSurdy, Arkin, Thomas, Harris, Chapas, Nagy.

Chapas, McSurdy and Nagy are out of the league. Coale and Arkin are at other teams but have not distinguished themselves.

Josh Thomas is a top backup in Carolina and Dwayne Harris has proven himself a dynamic player that may still develop into something great. Holloman and Wilber have flashed some playmaking ability at the linebacker spot. Webb, Randle and Johnson are still prospects in the organization.

This notion that our late round drafting has been miserable the last few years is not fair at all.

 

[xwalker]

It's called a consensus. When was the last time we took a player at least 2 rounds higher than the consensus of prognosticators/experts had him going and it worked out for us? Skylar Green? Isaiah Stanback? David Arkin? AOA? Jason Williams?
Yeah, we really have a history of going against the grain and proving everyone else wrong.

The draft media thought that they drafted Frederick too early. That seemed to work out quite well.

 

[BigStar]

I don't think speed has been a priority as of late. I am not saying that they need to take the Al Davis route and put speed over their playing ability, but I want to see more speed , especially in the secondary and with the LBs. I want the team to concentrate on the fastest players at their positions. I think the team has taken a "fast enough" approach with players and it has created a team with just average speed. I hope that changes.

I appreciated the earlier Church reference and agree about the general lack of speed on this team (slot WRs/TEs are slow too). The lack of speed/athleticism from the the Safety position is concerning outside of Wilcox who seems to have the game speed that is wrongly applied to Church. Slow safeties/nonathletic safeties will not due well in zone coverage but football awareness can admittedly hide some of these deficiencies; but that is the exception not the norm to follow when constructing a backfield in this scheme but also in general in today's league with hybrid TEs and RBs being involved in the passing game so regularly. The days of dime safeties are rare, and are usually hybrid packages to prepare for the run on the third and mid-short. Yet we have 3 SS's basically playing coverage in our dime scheme. Hopefully a renewed outlook towards the Safety position is dealt with in the manner they dealt with the OL after neglecting or going "cheap" for that miserable recent stretch. Get this DL fixed up and look towards QB/S with some resources via draft/FA in 2015/16.

 

[BigStar]

stopped reading here.

too many posers on the internet these days

Yeah, 4-5 NFL organizations have figured out how to run great/respectable(ish) organizations, what are those other 27 teams doing that fans on forums aren't? Being professionals and all, they should have this science/invention trademarked...is it the credit or belittlement that is the drive here? Unless you coach college football, I don't think you are any different unless you came here to read JJ quotes?