Revisiting Romo's Late Game Stats

[percyhoward]

I can't prove you wrong, because you haven't given any substance. All I can say is that your thesis is incomplete.

And if you "could" list a huge number of regular season and post season games that proves your thesis, then why not do it? Oh, you don't want to waste your time? Then I'm not going to waste any more time giving your opinion any credibility. See how that works?

If you can prove it, prove it.

This gets a like from me--not to gang up on any specific poster--but because I'll be stealing from it word-for-word in the future.

 

[BrassCowboy]

QB is most important.

that goes without saying, little to support the theory that wins equals great QB though. wins means very very little to how good a player is. With that being said, a qb mistake can be critical compared to other players mistakes, but again the reason why one would want individual stats to be very good as Romo's is

Our problem is defense, period. Romo has to outdo himself every single game to try and keep up with what the defense gives up as proven last year. Cannot hold onto any lead we get for the life of us, which means we give up on the running game and put it all on Romo leading to the possibility of critical mistakes.

 

[jnday]

Well, in that same year against NO he played lights out and the defense did what it did and we lost. And this was in the 4th quarter and equally an important game. If I am not mistaken, he threw a pretty clutch TD pass late in that game. Pretty much at the start of the Bengals that year, every game was a must win.

But we shouldn't just excuse the defense for their performance against Wash. If I'm not mistaken, the defense could have stopped Wash late in the game after the TO. There was a bone headed penalty from Hatcher.

Until this defense steps up, we can expect more of the same.

I am not letting the defense off the hook , but when there is a chance to win these games late in the 4th quarter, Romo needs to step up and not turn the ball over. Romo's problems started before the defense got this bad. He has had the problem his whole career.

 

[jnday]

The post of yours that I quoted was one sentence. How is that cherry-picking?

If your point is that a turnover in the final minutes of a game "doesn't help" a team's winning percentage when they need a score, well no ****. And of course Romo has thrown more than one late game INT... but that doesn't tell us anything. You have to compare it to his contemporaries to see where he ranks in order for it to be useful. Neither you or KJJ have done any of that. All you've done is throw out conclusory statements that have no context with QBs across the league. You can't come in to a statistical debate and throw out generalities and think that's gonna get you very far.

It would be like me saying Dez Bryant's finger falling out of bounds in that Giants loss at home a couple of years back didn't help the team's winning percentage. And even though he's tearing the league up statistically, his drops and fumbles and that play prevent us from winning, and therefore he shouldn't be considered a top WR in the league. I wouldn't argue that because it provides no context of his performance with other WRs in the league. If it was something I really wanted to argue, then I would "research" the performances of other WRs and see how he stacked up.

What you and KJJ end up with is a standard that no QB can throw late game (or "stupid") interceptions or they don't fit your definition of a good QB. The problem with that is that no QB in the league can meet that standard.

You are a lawyer and you should know better. Judges don't allow cherry-picking conversations for evidence and you know the reasons why. I saw how you cherry-picked KJJ's post , but I am not going to fall for it. I know that you are not dumb. You knew exactly what points I was making in my post.

 

[peplaw06]

You are a lawyer and you should know better. Judges don't allow cherry-picking conversations for evidence and you know the reasons why. I saw how you cherry-picked KJJ's post , but I am not going to fall for it. I know that you are not dumb. You knew exactly what points I was making in my post.

What would you know about what judges and lawyers do?

I think you've gotten this backwards. You and KJJ have chosen Romo's performance in "elimination games" as the most important, or "useful," stat for comparing him to other QBs. That's the epitome of cherry-picking.

Yet, when I ask both of you for more information to further develop your argument, I get accused of cherry-picking. LMAO.

 

[peplaw06]

I am not letting the defense off the hook , but when there is a chance to win these games late in the 4th quarter, Romo needs to step up and not turn the ball over. Romo's problems started before the defense got this bad. He has had the problem his whole career.

You do understand that if Romo was some type of bumbling turnover machine in the 4th quarter of close games that his rating wouldn't be as high as it is right? This is just confirmation bias on your part. You came to a conclusion based on your cherry-picking of certain games. Now when evidence is presented to say you're wrong, you dismiss it and just focus on the certain games you used to get to your opinion in the first place.

 

[KJJ]

I can't prove you wrong, because you haven't given any substance. All I can say is that your thesis is incomplete.

And if you "could" list a huge number of regular season and post season games that proves your thesis, then why not do it? Oh, you don't want to waste your time? Then I'm not going to waste any more time giving your opinion any credibility. See how that works?

If you can prove it, prove it. If you can't then shut up. One game -- or even 5 -- doesn't prove anything.

You just said it there you can't prove me wrong. You haven't done one ounce of legwork to prove anything I've said wrong because you can't. Why should I list a large number of games regular season and postseason that proves my point when there's been 48 SB's and the last 5 prove my point? That doesn't indicate a pattern to you? No matter how many games I list you'll come back and scoff or toss an insult. I have posts throughout this entire thread proving my point but all you've done is gloss over them which has been proven by misinterpreting my comments. In the 92 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 4-0 and Kelly/Reich's ratio was 1-4. In the 95 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 1-0 while Neil O'Donnell's ratio was 1-3. In the 2007 playoffs Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 1-1 while Eli's ratio was 2-0.

In the 2008 season finale vs Philly with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while McNabb's ratio was 2-0. In Romo's only playoff win in 2009 vs Philly his TD to turnover ratio was 2-0 while McNabb's ratio was 1-1. The following week in the blowout loss to Minn Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while Favre's ratio was 4-0. In the season finale loss vs the Giants in 2011 with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-2 while Eli's was 3-0. In the season finale loss to Washington with a playoff birth on the line in 2012 Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-3 while RG3's was 0-0. In every elimination game loss Romo committed at least one turnover or made a mistake (fumbled snap vs Seattle) which "contributed" to each of those 6 losses. In 5 of Romo's 6 elimination game losses the opposing QB had the better TD to turnover ratio.

I don't need to list game after game throughout the entire history of the NFL to prove my point. There's exemptions to every rule but a QB's TD to turnover ratio compared to the opposing QB determines more big games than any stat. Turnovers are usually the difference in big games. You haven't brought anything to the table but insults. You've defended percy in this debate but you haven't provided anything that points to a QB's passer rating correlating to more wins than their TD to turnover ratio. You want to put me on the defensive proving something that every NFL expert would agree with but you don't want to provide anything to refute what I've been proving throughout this thread because you can't…nuff said!

 

[Cebrin]

Perception is subjective. Where one person sees an idiot. Another person sees the love of their life. Everyone can pull a stat pleading their case. You can probably do it with any QB in the league. However, when your team has sucked for 18 years, it sure makes it easier. Don't argue with the haters, it's a waste of your intelligence. Just move along.

 

[DFWJC]

Leave it to Tony to do so

Sadly.

But what it shows indisputably is that he had recently (not always) played on teams with really bad defenses.

Even an average defense in either of those games and the cowboys win by 2, 3, even 4 TDs.

The Denver game especially can serve as a football IQ filter. Anyone that would remotely hint that the loss was on the offense, let alone the QB, it way beyond clueless.

The Green Bay game (though winning or losing made no difference in the playoff quest) on the other hand...... No matter what options Romo had or how stacked it was against the run, he should not have thrown the ball in that situation. That did tee me off. That was a bad play by both him and the coaches. It happens.
I'd say he redeemed himself in a far more important game the following week though.

 

[Cebrin]

Sadly.

But what it shows indisputably is that he had recently (not always) played on teams with really bad defenses.

Even an average defense in either of those games and the cowboys win by 2, 3, even 4 TDs.

Troy Aikman
Def Ppg Allowed
1990 19.2/g
1991 19.4/g
1992 15.2/g
1993 14.3/g
1994 15.5/g
1995 18.2/g
1996 15.6/g
1997 19.6/g
1998 17.2/g
1999 17.2/g
2000 22.6/g
Tony Romo
Def Ppg Allowed
2006 21.9/g
2007 20.3/g
2008 22.8/g
2009 15.6/g
2010 27.2/g
2011 21.7/g
2012 25.0/g
2013 27.0/g

Take in to account the rebuild of the offense during the period where our defense was priming. Now we've the offensive front but, no defensive front. Sucks to be Romo. Except for those millions. Those millions don't suck at all.​

 

[peplaw06]

You just said it there you can't prove me wrong. You haven't done one ounce of legwork to prove anything I've said wrong because you can't.

LOL... just the way you wanted it. I can't disprove a theory that hasn't been presented. It's up to you to prove it big boy.

Why should I list a large number of games regular season and postseason that proves my point when there's been 48 SB's and the last 5 prove my point?

Because of sample size.

In the 92 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 4-0 and Kelly/Reich's ratio was 1-4. In the 95 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 1-0 while Neil O'Donnell's ratio was 1-3. In the 2007 playoffs Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 1-1 while Eli's ratio was 2-0.

In the 2008 season finale vs Philly with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while McNabb's ratio was 2-0. In Romo's only playoff win in 2009 vs Philly his TD to turnover ratio was 2-0 while McNabb's ratio was 1-1. The following week in the blowout loss to Minn Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while Favre's ratio was 4-0. In the season finale loss vs the Giants in 2011 with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-2 while Eli's was 3-0. In the season finale loss to Washington with a playoff birth on the line in 2012 Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-3 while RG3's was 0-0.

Oh, you've finally listed SOME specifics. Not nearly enough to prove a thesis. But I'll bite.

2013 postseason

KC vs. IND: Alex Smith 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 Fumble Lost; Andrew Luck 4 TD, 3 INT. Smith wins TD to turnover ratio, loses the game 45-44.
SD vs. DEN: Philip Rivers 2 TD, 0 INT; Peyton Manning 2 TD, 1 INT. Rivers wins TD to turnover ratio, loses the game 24-17.
NE vs DEN: Brady threw 1 TD, Manning threw 2. There were no turnovers in the game. Denver won 26-16. You can't say either QB won the TD to turnover ratio, because there were no turnovers. Your thesis wouldn't apply in this game.
SF vs GB: Kaepernick 1 TD, 1 INT; Rodgers 1 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers. Rodgers wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 23-20.
PHI vs NO: Brees 1 TD, 2 INT; Foles 2 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers. Foles wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 26-24.
NO vs SEA: Brees 1 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers; Wilson 0 TD, 0 INT. Brees wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 23-15.

This is just from the last postseason. There are only 13 games. Almost half of them disprove your thesis. You need to do some more work.

In every elimination game loss Romo committed at least one turnover or made a mistake (fumbled snap vs Seattle) which "contributed" to each of those 6 losses. In 5 of Romo's 6 elimination game losses the opposing QB had the better TD to turnover ratio.

Oh, now you're including the generic "mistake." Moving the goalposts already eh?

I don't need to list game after game throughout the entire history of the NFL to prove my point. There's exemptions to every rule but a QB's TD to turnover ratio compared to the opposing QB determines more big games than any stat. Turnovers are usually the difference in big games. You haven't brought anything to the table but insults. You've defended percy in this debate but you haven't provided anything that points to a QB's passer rating correlating to more wins than their TD to turnover ratio. You want to put me on the defensive proving something that every NFL expert would agree with but you don't want to provide anything to refute what I've been proving throughout this thread because you can't…nuff said!

I'm not asking you to list every game in the history of the NFL. Just prove your thesis. You haven't done it yet.

Here, I'll help you...

a QB's TD to turnover ratio compared to the opposing QB determines more big games than any stat.

This is your hypothesis. In order to prove that, you have to do the research. Show us how a TD to turnover ratio determines big games. What's the correlation? Then show us that correlation compared to every other stat... you know, since you said determines more than any stat...

Percyhoward has shown how passer rating and a defense's passer rating against correlates to wins and losses. That was his thesis. Hell, just show how your stat compares to his. He's already done his share of the work for you. Now do your share.

 

[KJJ]

I can't disprove a theory that hasn't been presented. It's up to you to prove it big boy.

You can't disprove facts. LOL Go waste someone else's time!

 

[jobberone]

You just said it there you can't prove me wrong. You haven't done one ounce of legwork to prove anything I've said wrong because you can't. Why should I list a large number of games regular season and postseason that proves my point when there's been 48 SB's and the last 5 prove my point? That doesn't indicate a pattern to you? No matter how many games I list you'll come back and scoff or toss an insult. I have posts throughout this entire thread proving my point but all you've done is gloss over them which has been proven by misinterpreting my comments. In the 92 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 4-0 and Kelly/Reich's ratio was 1-4. In the 95 SB Aikman's TD to turnover ratio was 1-0 while Neil O'Donnell's ratio was 1-3. In the 2007 playoffs Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 1-1 while Eli's ratio was 2-0.

In the 2008 season finale vs Philly with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while McNabb's ratio was 2-0. In Romo's only playoff win in 2009 vs Philly his TD to turnover ratio was 2-0 while McNabb's ratio was 1-1. The following week in the blowout loss to Minn Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 0-3 while Favre's ratio was 4-0. In the season finale loss vs the Giants in 2011 with a playoff birth on the line Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-2 while Eli's was 3-0. In the season finale loss to Washington with a playoff birth on the line in 2012 Romo's TD to turnover ratio was 2-3 while RG3's was 0-0. In every elimination game loss Romo committed at least one turnover or made a mistake (fumbled snap vs Seattle) which "contributed" to each of those 6 losses. In 5 of Romo's 6 elimination game losses the opposing QB had the better TD to turnover ratio.

I don't need to list game after game throughout the entire history of the NFL to prove my point. There's exemptions to every rule but a QB's TD to turnover ratio compared to the opposing QB determines more big games than any stat. Turnovers are usually the difference in big games. You haven't brought anything to the table but insults. You've defended percy in this debate but you haven't provided anything that points to a QB's passer rating correlating to more wins than their TD to turnover ratio. You want to put me on the defensive proving something that every NFL expert would agree with but you don't want to provide anything to refute what I've been proving throughout this thread because you can't…nuff said!

Everyone knows TDs and turnovers are important in winning games esp turnovers. So tell us why TD to turnover ratio is so important esp for the Dallas Cowboys. Hint: without discussing TD/TO I've stated it in this thread although not elaborated. How are some teams able to overcome it and its a killer for some or even most?

 

[peplaw06]

You can't disprove facts. LOL Go waste someone else's time!

Just as I suspected. You're running now. Bye.

 

[peplaw06]

I suggest you start with this thread started by @percyhoward. http://cowboyszone.com/threads/hist...on-the-importance-of-our-pass-offense.285403/

That's what actual "research" looks like.

 

[KJJ]

Everyone knows TDs and turnovers are important in winning games esp turnovers. So tell us why TD to turnover ratio is so important esp for the Dallas Cowboys. Hint: without discussing TD/TO I've stated it in this thread although not elaborated. How are some teams able to overcome it and its a killer for some or even most?

I've already discussed that. Russell Wilson had several multiple turnover games last season but overcame them due to being bailed out by his outstanding defense. Romo can't afford to turn the ball over having a historically bad defense that never bails him out but that doesn't excuse the turnovers he's had late in tight games. Although the defense was terrible vs Denver the Cowboys were still in position to win the game in the end until Romo's int in the closing minutes. Turnovers are going to happen when a team is way behind and a QB has to press but they're being paid the big bucks to come through when the opportunity is there.

 

[KJJ]

Just as I suspected. You're running now. Bye.

LOL dream on! I've been debating this topic for several days with a number of different posters who've brought something to the table that was worth my time. You haven't brought anything you just show up to scoff, disagree and toss a few insults.

 

[KJJ]

2013 postseason

KC vs. IND: Alex Smith 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 Fumble Lost; Andrew Luck 4 TD, 3 INT. Smith wins TD to turnover ratio, loses the game 45-44.
SD vs. DEN: Philip Rivers 2 TD, 0 INT; Peyton Manning 2 TD, 1 INT. Rivers wins TD to turnover ratio, loses the game 24-17.
NE vs DEN: Brady threw 1 TD, Manning threw 2. There were no turnovers in the game. Denver won 26-16. You can't say either QB won the TD to turnover ratio, because there were no turnovers. Your thesis wouldn't apply in this game.
SF vs GB: Kaepernick 1 TD, 1 INT; Rodgers 1 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers. Rodgers wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 23-20.
PHI vs NO: Brees 1 TD, 2 INT; Foles 2 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers. Foles wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 26-24.
NO vs SEA: Brees 1 TD, 0 INT, no turnovers; Wilson 0 TD, 0 INT. Brees wins TD to turnover ratio, loses 23-15.

This is just from the last postseason. There are only 13 games. Almost half of them disprove your thesis. You need to do some more work.

Dude I just told you there's exceptions to every rule. Not every QB who has a better TD to turnover ratio is going to win there's exceptions just like with the passer rating stat. There's plenty of games in which QB's have lost games where they had a higher passer rating than the winning QB. Turnovers are the deciding factor in a lot of big games anyone who knows football will tell you that.

 

[KJJ]

I suggest you start with this thread started by @percyhoward. http://cowboyszone.com/threads/hist...on-the-importance-of-our-pass-offense.285403/

That's what actual "research" looks like.

Are you a family member of his? Never seen a FAN defend another FAN with so much passion. Hopefully he doesn't tell you to jump. LOL

 

[5Stars]

Dude I just told you there's exceptions to every rule. Not every QB who has a better TD to turnover ratio is going to win there's exceptions just like with the passer rating stat. There's plenty of games in which QB's have lost games where they had a higher passer rating than the winning QB. Turnovers are the deciding factor in a lot of big games anyone who knows football will tell you that.

Oh, now there are "exceptions to every rule"...unless it comes to Romo. Pathetic...