Revisiting Romo's Late Game Stats

[DanteEXT]

Which tells you how little insight stats can sometimes provide. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best late game QBs both now and in the history of the NFL based on QB rating, however, from a win/loss perspective his 4th quarter comeback record is SHOCKINGLY bad.

That is a a real had scratcher with Rodgers. You'd think he didn't have many opportunities but compared to Romo he really only has a handful less. I believe ( but can't say for sure) that last year was his first against a team that was 500 or better when they beat the Bears at the end of the season.

 

[perrykemp]

That is a a real had scratcher with Rodgers. You'd think he didn't have many opportunities but compared to Romo he really only has a handful less. I believe ( but can't say for sure) that last year was his first against a team that was 500 or better when they beat the Bears at the end of the season.

Rodgers is obviously incredible in so many ways, however, one of his greatest strengths -- his complete unwillingness to take chances with the ball - which leads to his very high QB rating and incidentally a lot of sacks (instead of putting the ball up for grabs or making low percentage passes), also factors heavily into why he has very few comebacks. When you are coming back you have to take more chances with the ball and I believe Aaron Rodgers has such an aversion to making low percentage passes he just can't make himself do it in comeback situations.

Just a theory.

 

[DanteEXT]

Rodgers is obviously incredible in so many ways, however, one of his greatest strengths -- his complete unwillingness to take chances with the ball - which leads to his very high QB rating and incidentally a lot of sacks (instead of putting the ball up for grabs or making low percentage passes), also factors heavily into why he has very few comebacks. When you are coming back you have to take more chances with the ball and I believe Aaron Rodgers has such an aversion to making low percentage passes he just can't make himself do it in comeback situations.

Just a theory.

I would say that theory probably has a lot of merit. Not sure how one would either validate or disapprove it. I guess one could watch all 22 of packers games in those situations.

 

[jobberone]

What's funny is, based on the facts, we should be criticizing Romo's 1st quarters, if anything. But rather than "waste their time" finding this out, some prefer simply to regurgitate whichever ready-made criticisms are the most popular.

I don't know what's up with this teams starts. Some of it has to be Romo but I suspect its multifactoral. Have you looked at this? How much is game plan vs execution? Or is the answer yes?

 

[jobberone]

Rodgers is obviously incredible in so many ways, however, one of his greatest strengths -- his complete unwillingness to take chances with the ball - which leads to his very high QB rating and incidentally a lot of sacks (instead of putting the ball up for grabs or making low percentage passes), also factors heavily into why he has very few comebacks. When you are coming back you have to take more chances with the ball and I believe Aaron Rodgers has such an aversion to making low percentage passes he just can't make himself do it in comeback situations.

Just a theory.

Very good. That should be obvious to most but I just never thought of it that way. Of course I don't think about GB or Rodgers too often.

 

[Hoofbite]

Well I know one thing. Both Tony and A-rod have smoking hot babes.

And that's all that really matters.

 

[iceberg]

Well I know one thing. Both Tony and A-rod have smoking hot babes.

And that's all that really matters.

Finally some sanity!

 

[jobberone]

Well I know one thing. Both Tony and A-rod have smoking hot babes.

And that's all that really matters.

LOL. Superficial but vain. It's not all that matters but hot helps.

 

[percyhoward]

Rodgers is obviously incredible in so many ways, however, one of his greatest strengths -- his complete unwillingness to take chances with the ball - which leads to his very high QB rating and incidentally a lot of sacks (instead of putting the ball up for grabs or making low percentage passes), also factors heavily into why he has very few comebacks. When you are coming back you have to take more chances with the ball and I believe Aaron Rodgers has such an aversion to making low percentage passes he just can't make himself do it in comeback situations.

Just a theory.

Actually, Rodgers' sack % goes down in late and close situations while his YPA goes up. But his TD% does drop considerably (7.0 to 5.8).

Romo's TD% actually goes up from 4.8 to 5.6

 

[percyhoward]

I don't know what's up with this teams starts. Some of it has to be Romo but I suspect its multifactoral. Have you looked at this? How much is game plan vs execution? Or is the answer yes?

Beats me but we seem to do better when we go away from the game plan.

 

[DejectedFan1996]

There's clearly some who have trouble seeing Romo's performances in those games for what they were. They try and steer any of the blame away from him. The losses have been a collective effort by the "team" but Romo has played a part with a number of turnovers. Roethlisberger won a SB with a poor performance but Seattle's Hasselbeck wasn't very good himself in that game. Ben played terrific in his 3 playoff games leading up to that SB.

The game has changed some since 05 and Roethlisberger had to play great to win his next SB 3 years later despite having the #1 defense. Rodgers out played him in 2010. The way the NFL is today you can't carry a QB to a SB win no matter how good your defense is. Flacco had to play lights out in the playoffs and SB for the Ravens to win it all a couple of years ago.

Haven't read through everything yet but I did feel the need to comment on this.

In my opinion of course, I feel that those QB's, especially Rapist 2.0, have had the benefit of being carried into the playoffs by the defense, which then in turn, allows him an OPPORTUNITY to play great in said playoffs. In 2008, his defense was averaging 14.2 ppg. They beat Washington by two possessions that year and he was 5/17. Not too sure if we can find many games where Romo is 5/17 and the Cowboys win by two possessions but the point of my reply was that, Romo hasn't had the benefit of having a defense at least GET HIM to the playoffs where he can possibly play great whereas Flacco and Rapist 2.0 (and Eli) have. You could possibly make a case for 2009, but I'm not sure which QB may have been able to win with the way that line was playing against Minnesota.

 

[gbrittain]

Where is Eli, Joe and Ben R when they do not have a defense to back them up? At home watching the playoffs just like Romo. This ain't that hard.

 

[DanteEXT]

Haven't read through everything yet but I did feel the need to comment on this.

In my opinion of course, I feel that those QB's, especially Rapist 2.0, have had the benefit of being carried into the playoffs by the defense, which then in turn, allows him an OPPORTUNITY to play great in said playoffs. In 2008, his defense was averaging 14.2 ppg. They beat Washington by two possessions that year and he was 5/17. Not too sure if we can find many games where Romo is 5/17 and the Cowboys win by two possessions but the point of my reply was that, Romo hasn't had the benefit of having a defense at least GET HIM to the playoffs where he can possibly play great whereas Flacco and Rapist 2.0 (and Eli) have. You could possibly make a case for 2009, but I'm not sure which QB may have been able to win with the way that line was playing against Minnesota.

Romo didn't play very well in that Minnesota game...but it would be hard to find someone who did. Maybe the long snapper?

 

[peplaw06]

Try "reading" my posts instead of looking through them. I said Romo has 12 "turnovers" in his 6 elimination game losses…NEXT!

I read them... thanks for reiterating your moronic "statistic." You don't understand the concept of sample sizes. You can't just pick and choose which games you want to look at and declare them the rule.

Had you read my posts you would have seen that I provided results of my research. I posted that in the last 2 SB's the winning QB's had the better TD to turnover ratio. The last 5 winning SB QB's didn't have a turnover in the SB but the opposing QB's did. Kurt Warner had a much higher passer rating in the SB 5 years ago than Ben Roethlisberger but Warner had 2 turnovers. One was returned for a TD that helped cost AZ the game. Nothing determines the outcome of big games more than turnovers…NEXT!

Your "research" is the last 2 super bowls? Definition of small sample size. What a joke.

The stats presented don't determine who the best QB's are. They don't determine winners and losers in the games that matter most like the stats I've presented…NEXT!

If you think you can determine that winners and losers are determined on the better TD to turnover ratio based on the last 2 super bowls, you're dumber than I thought.

I've provided a lot of content do some reading instead of skimming. If you have a problem with an opinion I have either do some research yourself or provide my "quotes" and we'll discuss them…NEXT!

No, you haven't. You've deflected and ignored. All based on looking 2-5 Super Bowls, and 7 games of Romo's 100+.

I haven't dodged anything you continue to prove you haven't read my posts. Percy's agenda is to ask ridiculous passer rating questions that he believes he has the correct answers for to simply keep this argument going and to waste my time. It's an attempt to turn one argument about passer ratings into another argument about passer ratings. I know his MO we've been arguing passer rating for 4 years. LOL I told him prior to the 2010 season that when Romo's passer ratings lead to another playoff win or a championship for him to get back to me. He claims there's no stat that correlates to winning more than a QB's passer rating and Romo despite having the 5th highest passer rating all-time is 4 games under 500 the last 4 years with no playoff appearances. As for laziness go do some reading…NEXT!

Prove it then. What's the correlation to TD to turnover ration to winning... you haven't even shown the correlation for the 5 games you "researched." Do some work if you want o be taken seriously in a statistical debate.

I directed you to it and you still can't find it. LOL It let's me know you either haven't done any reading or your ability to comprehend is in question…NEXT!

You didn't direct me to anything... you just said it's in the thread. That's ********. There's nothing in the thread except for you trying to make excuses as to why you think the stats presented don't matter. This thread is 320 posts long. If you think you've presented something other than conclusory ********, then point it out.

 

[jobberone]

Beats me but we seem to do better when we go away from the game plan.

Yeah. I think we do better when we go to a more upbeat game but your observation is probably valid as well. That's pretty damning.

 

[DFWJC]

5 TD's and 1 INT. All day!

I wonder if that was the best played game by a QB in NFL history in a losing effort.
Staubach seemed to think so.

 

[jobberone]

I wonder if that was the best played game by a QB in NFL history in a losing effort.
Staubach seemed to think so.

Only two QBs have passed for over 300 yds, thrown 4 TD passes and had a QB rating >140 and lost. Their names are Tony Romo and....Tony Romo. That's almost 80 games in NFL history and Romo has them both. The NYG loss 37-34 in 2011 and last year's DEN loss.

 

[DFWJC]

Only two QBs have passed for over 300 yds, thrown 4 TD passes and had a QB rating >140 and lost. Their names are Tony Romo and....Tony Romo. That's almost 80 games in NFL history and Romo has them both. The NYG loss 37-34 in 2011 and last year's DEN loss.

I almost mentioned that Giants game.
Pretty amazing.
It should highlight to some just how unique his situation had been at times...especially in recent years.
Probably won't though.

 

[MarionBarberThe4th]

What was the last pass romo threw last year

 

[DFWJC]

What was the last pass romo threw last year

Pretty nice moment.
And borderline heroic given the pain he was in.