Romo 3rd down stats

[Plankton]

This doesn't tell the whole story.

The Cowboys are 27th in the NFL in total 3rd down attempts, and are 18th in three and out percentage.

On third downs, 92 of their 116 attempts are 6 yards or more, or 79% of the plays.

This tells me that the lack of a running game and a failure on 1st and 2nd downs hampers their third down efficiency. The stats also show that Romo plays very well on first down.

Romo has certainly not played well since the Denver game, but those numbers above have some context to them.

 

[Kalyan]

Yeah, I wish Parcells would have stayed. He was the best thing that happened to the team in the last 18 years. If he had time he could have truly made us a contender. Although I'm not positive of that with Jerry's ego in the background trying to make all the decisions.

I wish Parcells convinces Jerry to keep Sean Payton as next heach coch of cowboys after Parcell quits

 

[percyhoward]

Teams started figuring out the way to stop Romo... Double team his BFF.

Makes no sense to believe that, 8 Pro Bowls into his career, defenses have only suddenly awoken to the fact that Witten is a productive 3rd-down target.

 

[percyhoward]

This doesn't tell the whole story.

The Cowboys are 27th in the NFL in total 3rd down attempts, and are 18th in three and out percentage.

On third downs, 92 of their 116 attempts are 6 yards or more, or 79% of the plays.

This tells me that the lack of a running game and a failure on 1st and 2nd downs hampers their third down efficiency. The stats also show that Romo plays very well on first down.

Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
2013
games 1-5: 7.3 yards (85.2)
games 6-10: 8.3 yards (33.0)

Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
2013: 7.8 yards (57.6)
2012: 7.6 yards (74.0)

Looking at this season only, the lack of a running game definitely plays a role in our poor 3rd-down performance. In the last five games we need to gain a full yard extra on 3rd downs on average. But I don't think the lack of a running game explains the drop in pass rating. When you compare this year with last year, there isn't much difference in the distance to go, compared to the difference in pass rating.

Also, looking at this season only, that extra yard to go probably shouldn't bring down the pass rating by 50+ points. The average pass rating for the NFL on 3rd and 7 is 85.5. On 3rd and 8, the rating only drops down to 81.5.

But you're right that it's easy to lose sight of the fact that (1) we've passed very well on 1st and 2nd down -- which make up more than 80% of our plays, and (2) that 3rd downs account for less than 20% of our plays.

 

[Plankton]

Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
2013
games 1-5: 7.3 yards (85.2)
games 6-10: 8.3 yards (33.0)

Avg yards to go on 3rd down pass plays (pass rating):
2013: 7.8 yards (57.6)
2012: 7.6 yards (74.0)

Looking at this season only, the lack of a running game definitely plays a role in our poor 3rd-down performance. In the last five games we need to gain a full yard extra on 3rd downs on average. But I don't think the lack of a running game explains the drop in pass rating. When you compare this year with last year, there isn't much difference in the distance to go, compared to the difference in pass rating.

Also, looking at this season only, that extra yard to go probably shouldn't bring down the pass rating by 50+ points. The average pass rating for the NFL on 3rd and 7 is 85.5. On 3rd and 8, the rating only drops down to 81.5.

But you're right that it's easy to lose sight of the fact that (1) we've passed very well on 1st and 2nd down -- which make up more than 80% of our plays, and (2) that 3rd downs account for less than 20% of our plays.

It's even more bizarre when you consider that he is taking part in the game planning sessions with the coaches, and has full audibling capability at the LOS.

If anything, he should be performing better.

 

[percyhoward]

Here are their 3rd-down targets' pass ratings for the season:
Bryant 10 of 21 123 3 td 0 int 105.8
Witten 10 of 19 116 0 td 0 int 71.4
Beasley 9 of 14 102 0 td 2 int 46.4
Williams 7 of 17 120 0 td 2 int 26.2

Here is how they have divided 3rd-down targets over the last 5 games:
Bryant 22.9%
Witten 11.4%
Beasley 28.6%
Williams 37.1%

Both sets of data repeated, but combined:
pass rating by target (season)
Bryant/Witten 20 of 40 239 3 td 0 int 93.6
Williams/Beasley 16 of 31 222 0 td 4 int 35.3

share of targets (last 5 games)
Bryant/Witten 34.3%
Williams/Beasley 65.7%

 

[dstovall5]

Here are their 3rd-down targets' pass ratings for the season:
Bryant 10 of 21 123 3 td 0 int 105.8
Witten 10 of 19 116 0 td 0 int 71.4
Beasley 9 of 14 102 0 td 2 int 46.4
Williams 7 of 17 120 0 td 2 int 26.2

Here is how they have divided 3rd-down targets over the last 5 games:
Bryant 22.9%
Witten 11.4%
Beasley 28.6%
Williams 37.1%

Both sets of data repeated, but combined:
pass rating by target (season)
Bryant/Witten 20 of 40 239 3 td 0 int 93.6
Williams/Beasley 16 of 31 222 0 td 4 int 35.3

share of targets (last 5 games)
Bryant/Witten 34.3%
Williams/Beasley 65.7%

And that's why we need a reliable #2 WR. Right now, we're really feeling the growing pains of a very inexperienced WR core, IMO. Ask Brady how he's doing with inexperienced WRs.

 

[percyhoward]

It's even more bizarre when you consider that he is taking part in the game planning sessions with the coaches, and has full audibling capability at the LOS.

If anything, he should be performing better.

On 1st and 2nd down, Romo's performing much better.
2013: 110.7
2012: 95.2

Especially in the red zone:
2013: 112.8
2012: 93.0

Even over the last 5 games, on 1st and 2nd down, Romo is better than last year:
2013 (games 6-10): 98.2
2012: 95.2

The problem is the last five games, on 3rd down. We've shifted the focus from our most productive, most efficient 3rd-down targets (Bryant and Witten) to our least productive, least efficient targets (Williams and Beasley). That's something that, in hindsight, should not have been allowed to happen.

 

[Vintage]

Percy straight up owning our stupid fan base. Cracks me up every time.

 

[percyhoward]

Before anybody else says it, I realize the 2 INT on Beasley's targets had nothing to do with Beasley. In fact, he was wide open both times, and there's no reason to think both passes wouldn't have been completed. One was deflected at the LOS, the other was picked off by a LB who got drawn into the passing lane by a back who ran the wrong route. I guess you could fairly say that his targets involve a lot of traffic.

 

[Rockport]

How do you explain this?

Tony Romo on 3rd down this season.

47.1 completion % (34th INFL)

5.7 yards per attempt (30th NFL)

57.6 Passer rating (32nd NFL)

Another hater who blasts those who use stats to support Romo but at the same time use stats to hate on him. And don't give us "I'm only asking the question" spiel. We know your history on this subject.

I explain it as bad coaching and bad play from everyone on the offense.

 

[cowboyvic]

Just waiting for a Romo lover to post how efficient Romo has been this season.

Haven't you heard. it's the OL, WR's and coaches fault. it can't be Romo.

 

[cowboyvic]

Romo doesn't understand the importance of getting a first down, been noticing that since JG is here.
when we need less than 5 yards on 3rd down, Romo looks for long developing touchdown route for valuable 3-4 seconds, even though there is a receiver available for first down in 2 seconds after snap time. Usually ends up with holding, sack or open first down receiver covered.

I notice payton manning, he usually looks only at the first down receiver and throws him the ball if he is open before the defense has a chance to collapse on him.

First downs keeps our defense on the sidelines, gives offense a chance to get into a rythm. Not sure if it is Romo's fault or JG

You missed out on one other thing. he uis to scared to run to pick up first downs and keep drives going. how many times have you seen wide open running lanes for a fist down and this guy throws the ball away? he has his 55 million in the bank, so why should he take hits?

 

[ufcrules1]

Makes no sense to believe that, 8 Pro Bowls into his career, defenses have only suddenly awoken to the fact that Witten is a productive 3rd-down target.

Makes no sense if you are a simpleton. You think defenses will just keep playing a team the same way year after year? No, they change things up. In the last 5 games it appears teams were taking Witten out of the game on 3rd down and Romo's stats sank faster than the titanic when that happened. His 3rd down stats are absolutely horrendous!

 

[ufcrules1]

You missed out on one other thing. he uis to scared to run to pick up first downs and keep drives going. how many times have you seen wide open running lanes for a fist down and this guy throws the ball away? he has his 55 million in the bank, so why should he take hits?

Yeah, when he does run he looks TERRIFIED and goes down as fast as he can. He hasn't ran for over 50 yards in a WHOLE season since 2009. I think it is safe to say it is no longer part of his game. We now have a pocket passer only.

 

[beevomav]

A couple of things. Last season Tony was 5th at 43.85%. I don't have access to the advanced stats, but I would bet the average needed on third down this season is higher than last season. So are we just to think Romo has lost it all at once, or is it the result of something else?

This season Tony has become a dink and dunk passer, and I think that can be laid at the feet of how teams are defending the pass and play caller Bill Callahan. There is little doubt that doubling Witten and Dez has ground this passing game to a near stop and Callahan has not made any adjustments. Why is Dez not in motion or lined up in the slot?

Then again..this is not what most here want to hear? It's much more fun to blame Romo for everything.

 

[beevomav]

Makes no sense if you are a simpleton. You think defenses will just keep playing a team the same way year after year? No, they change things up. In the last 5 games it appears teams were taking Witten out of the game on 3rd down and Romo's stats sank faster than the titanic when that happened. His 3rd down stats are absolutely horrendous!

Exactly..but not only Witten. In that same time frame Dez has disappeared from the passing game. Romo is left with little options.

 

[Common Sense]

Can't it be an instance of Romo not looking quite as sharp lately (nagging injury?) PAIRED with Bill Callahan's bizzarro playcalling?

 

[CaptainMorgan]

I explain it as bad coaching and bad play from everyone on the offense.

Everyone except Romo right? lol

 

[CaptainMorgan]

Percy straight up owning our stupid fan base. Cracks me up every time.

how is anyone owning anyone here? The stats clearly back up what me eyes have seen. Romo is struggling on third downs. We are unable to keep drives alive. Nothing Percy has posted here suggests otherwise.

Furthermore why are fans suddenly "stupid" when they say anything remotely negative regarding Romo?