Hoofbite;5047682 said:
What part is bias?
Perhaps fans exaggerate the extent but I don't think there's anything bias in saying that Dallas snaps the ball late in the play clock often.
That would be a bias (confirmation, maybe selection/sampling). The bias is that whenever it happens, it gets reinforced (confirmation). The times where the play clock is within 5 seconds or not displayed at all doesn't get noticed/reinforced (selection/sampling bias).
I'd also be hesitant to just assume there are certain amounts of time on the clock because Fox typically shows the clock at some certain point. I've been looking at CBS and they show the play clock basically from the time the team hits the line of scrimmage. I think I've missed 1 play clock and I've now watched 1 game from Manning, 1 game from Brees and 1 game from Romo.
NBC in week 1 only showed the play clock within 5 seconds. TB and BAL were on FOX which didn't show the play clock until it was within 8 seconds. CBS didn't show the play clock until it's within 20 seconds. And I don't know NFLN or ESPN, I'd have to look on game rewind/condensed.
I wish I would have saved Manning's game but didn't think I would actually care to. It was the CBS game against Cincy. I tracked every snap except special teams snaps regardless of game situation. Penalties included. I don't think the negation of a play actually matters in measuring this because a false start at 5 seconds doesn't change the fact that the team couldn't have gotten the snap off any earlier than that and it still shows trends in the clock.
The times I posted only include snaps, even snaps cancelled out by penalties. I didn't care to judge anything else because it's impossible to know what caused the play to not start or if they even intended to run a play. If the OC is late getting the play in, and the offense is only set for 6 seconds with 5 seconds left on the play clock, is that false start due to the OC being late, play clock being low, the OL being set for too long, or just players screwing up? I don't know how to attribute/correlate/if it's relevant at all.
The amount of time that was left on the clock for Peyton was a little over 12 seconds, I believe. They had 6 snaps where 5 seconds or less are showing.
For Brees, I watched the KC game (CBS game) and the Saints averaged 10.77 seconds on the clock at the time of the snap. They had 9 plays with 5 seconds or less on the clock. This was the game where I couldn't see the clock at all so I just excluded that snap.
For Romo, I watched the game against Pittsburgh. Dallas had 32 plays where the play clock hit 5 seconds or less either before the snap or a penalty occurred. 1 was a delay of game, 2 more were false starts. Average time on the clock remaining was 6.43 seconds.
This isn't an issue of running the play clock down, there are other factors introduced, like how fast subs/huddles/playcalls are handled and how long the QB is waiting with the formation set before they call for the snap. It's almost an entirely different issue/thread to judge the average play clock vs when it's just run down really low, where it could be either the OC or QB's fault, and whether it's even indicative of a problem at all. Other teams could handle subs/huddles/playcalls quicker, but the QB looks at the defense for 10 seconds before snapping the ball at 10 seconds on the play clock. Whereas Dallas could be slower at those things, but Romo looks at the defense for 10 seconds before snapping the ball with 5 seconds on the play clock. Which QB is letting the play clock run out? Just by looking at only where the play clock is at given above, perception Romo, reality neither. You have to go back and count how many seconds each QB has a formation ready to go before they snap the ball if you wanted to do a QB-specific comparison, and also include results for it to figure if it's causing problems or causing solutions.
BTW, Dallas at the minimum doesn't have a problem going from huddle to set, I already checked sometime mid-season (Bryant is usually the last to get set though, he lines up pretty casually). Broadcasts don't show teams making subs or getting into/out of huddles, you'd have to be at the games timing that stuff to know it.
Here's times vs Cleveland (a CBS game), incomplete as it's what I used to make a vid for review purposes (no replays, no ref announcements, no false starts (I don't think Dallas had a false start); just run plays and pass plays). This video should be in the news zone, split in two if you want to go check. My youtube accounts were done for by the time week 15 came along so there is no PIT game uploaded.
18
17
14
13
5
18
13
15
12
20+ (CBS only shows play clock when it reaches 20)
20+/unknown
20+/unknown
3 (QB wasn't under center until 12)
7
3
11
10
11
14
14
7
9
20+/unknown
11
1 (3rd down, still huddled at 15, formation not set until ~8, Dez Bryant last set as usual)
11
21 (play clock appeared after snap)
3
9
20+/unknown (hurry up, so probably closer to 30)
14
8
6
10
10
9
9
15
8
4
9
3
8
15
13
6
2
12
20+/unknown
11
5
15
14
12
9
1
Play clocks inoperable... start back up at 5:45 4th Q
7
1
7
7
3
10
9
13
2
20+/unknown (hurry up, guessing 30-31)
13
1 (formation not set until 5)
0 (delay of game, not set until 5)
2
10
9
2
9
7
8
11
11
15
16
14
3
3
15
Don't care to organize it at this moment, also said I wasn't going to and I'm not. Just bolded the 0-1. Average looks to be like 8-12ish seconds on cursory calc. Also, Romo was sacked 8 times this game if you want to try to correlate play clock to sacks. There should be a sacks vid over there for the Cleveland game too.
It's a single game for each player so it is what it is, just a small sample. That said, I doubt the game-by-game variance is that great. I wonder if Dallas has some significant differences between halves simply because they were forced to run the hurry-up in the 2nd half so much. It would be interesting to see if that would show up but it would be a lot of work for little reward in tracking all those plays.
I would bet there is a good variance as you are facing a defense dependent variable weekly. If a defense usually lines up and plays teams straight up, there's no need to hard count getting a defender to show that they're blitzing or run the clock down waiting to see if they bail out of the box/off press into a coverage. If the defense is multiple look zone blitz (e.g. Pitt), you can be screwed if you see it wrong. This can happen (I believe they bring 4 or 5 initially on this play):
http://i.minus.com/iNXLAtETP0JZn.gif
Going back to the games you mentioned, KC/Crennel ran two gap 3-4. That's going to look the same a lot, no need to wait for them to show much; they aren't hiding.
Cinci/Zimmer. I am not familiar with his defense since he left Dallas. I don't think he tries to confuse offenses unless it's 3rd down, and plays more man coverage with corners. Did get sacks (Geno Atkins DT) though, but it's not necessarily from pre-snap confusion.
Pitt/Lebeau. He's been around so long and been successful, should be self-evident what kind of defense he runs by now with all kinds of articles to cite.
Also, the team has said that they use the clock for a reason. If you're saying they don't snap the ball late in the count, what are they talking about? I don't think there's any bias or fabrication, I think Dallas typically uses the clock more than other teams. They've given reasons why they do it.
That's not the bias (an unstated claim that it doesn't happen), the bias is that it happens more than it does and when it gets recognized. Plus, the information to make some of these claims is just not there, nor have people looked for it; they just assume stuff happens (more bias).
This is what teams use the clock to get defenses to do:
http://i.minus.com/ijmFFsONd4TWm.gif
The defense responds to Romo's snap action. They reveal it's a 0 blitz (blitzing 6 vs 5 in protection). By waiting until later in the play clock, the defense can't risk that it's a fake snap call and hold the disguise anymore. If that had been the call for the snap and they stayed in that alignment, the blitzers would have been a little further away (though a well-timed blitz), a safety in the middle of the field would be covering Austin in the slot, and Pacman in press position vs Dez with no safety help. It's pre-snap intel gained about the defense.