Rookie Seasons: Dak vs R Wilson

[Oh_Canada]

Brady didn't start his first year. His first year starting he won a freakin' Super Bowl. Also, Brady wasn't progressively getting worse throughout the season. Everyone remembers the season Brady had, no he didn't have everything on his shoulders, but Brady was not putting his team in positions to lose. He also did not have the talent we had on his offense, that team was defensive.

Dak has no excuses here to play as poorly as he has. Too much talent on this offense to play like a scrub Browns castoff QB.

Yes he was, he started his second season and his final three games of that SB season ratings of 54, 58 and 58.
Dak has No excuses? He is a rookie? If there are no excuses what is Romo's for winning only two playoff games in his career?

 

[SultanOfSix]

No, because I like to think positively.

No, you like to think about Carson Wentz.

 

[percyhoward]

Comparison of four rookie QB, with their passing yards as a percentage of their teams' total offense when these QB were playing.

Prescott 61.3%
Griffin 55.3%
Wilson 54.7%
Roethlisberger 53.2%

 

[mattjames2010]

And that's your argument? Dak has done things that NO ROOKIE has ever done before, yet because of that he's not allowed to look like a rookie? Every QB has bad games. What your saying is that Dak has to win the SB to earn "bad game forgiveness".....

No, the argument here is he was streaky. He was a hot hand, you know, like RGIII and Kap. Now that he's cooling down, it's not just that he is struggling, it's that nearly every phase of his game has been looking absolutely awful. He is looking like a 4th rounder or even a career backup.

"Every QB has bad games" - It's like you guys are intentionally ignoring the arguments. It's not that he's just have bad games! We freakin' get QBs have bad games, the issue is not that. It's the regression we are seeing. This is not him misreading defenses, it is everything from mechanics to lack of poise. What he has been showing is why he was there in the 4th round. What people criticized him coming out of college, the guy who is a borderline project, that's what we are seeing now...in December, when we have playoffs coming up.

He should be progressing and he's not.

 

[manster4ever]

Did a little digging around Russell Wilson's rookie year. I compare Dak to him the most. Both came into similar situations. Drafted 3rd and 4th round respectively. None were supposed to be the starter. Seattle just signed Matt Flynn since he was the flavor of the month due to one single game with GB the very last game of 2011. Only difference is Russell just won the job outright. Dak got the job because of 2 injuries. But that's irrelevant, though.

Russell's final regular season stats were 26TDs/10 INT and a 64% completion percentage. A passer rating of 100. He was sacked 33 times for a loss of 203yds. He also had 489yds rushing and 4 TDs. Yards/attempt 7.93.

With 3 games to go, Dak's stats are as follows:
20 TDs/4 INTs and a 66% completion percentage. A passer rating of 102.7. He has been sacked 21 times for 117yds. He has 218 rushing yds and 5TDs. Yards/attempt 7.95

They are about as similar as you can get for their rookie years. Now here are their 2 worst games of their respective rookie seasons. I am going by passer rating.

R Wilson (Game #7) @SF Niners (L 6-13) 9/23 122yds 0TDs/1 INT. 39% Sacked 2 times for 7 yards. Yards/attempt 5.30 Passer rating 38.7
(Game #4) @ Rams (L 13-19) 17/25 160yds 0TDS/3 INTs. 68% Sacked 2 times for 20 yards. Yards/attempt 6.40 Passer rating 45.8

Dak (Game #13) @Giants (L 7-10) 17/37 165yds 1TD/2INTs 46%. Sacked 3 times for 13 yards. Yards/attempt 4.46 Passer rating 45.4
(Game #1) vs Giants (L 19-20) 25/45 227 yds. 0TDS/0 INTs 56%. Sacked 0 times. Yards/attempt 5.04 Passer rating 69.4

Did Seattle panic and make a move? No. They stayed the course. Dak and Wilson are very similar their rookie years. Too many knee jerked over one poor game. But he's a damn rookie. Hell Peyton Manning as a seasoned vet has had putrid games in the playoffs. It happens. Too many people got a fogged brain and did not step away and realize what was happening. Dak still has a lot to learn but he's playing great this season. And one little off day and the pitchforks come out. Everyone just chill out.

ALL correct and I agree....but you left out ONE huge caveat. Tony Romo wasn't 'backing up' R.Wilson. Therein lies the rub.

 

[perrykemp]

Can we all agree Dak is the future for the QB position?

Because it seems like some posters are ready to move on completely and aren't convinced he'll be a good QB.

I am absolutely a huge fan of Dak. What I don't know, however, is if Dak's ceiling is 'Tony Romo prime', more than that, or less than that.

I am going to enjoy finding out.

 

[mattjames2010]

Yes he was, he started his second season and his final three games of that SB season ratings of 54, 58 and 58.
Dak has No excuses? He is a rookie? If there are no excuses what is Romo's for winning only two playoff games in his career?

You're looking at accuracy percentages

His final three games ratings were this - 63, 91, 62. As I said, Brady didn't light the league on fire his first year. We all know this, but again, people remember that season, he made the plays when he needed to.

His first year in the league, late down the line, he was pulling off wins late in the fourth quarter. 2 of the 5 fourth quarter comebacks Brady had that year came in December in those games you are saying he "regressed".

Again, the Patriots didn't have much of anything on offense. It was a defensive team, he did not have the talent the Cowboys have now. Despite this, he found ways to win, brought his team back in the 4th. Dak can't even convert a freakin' third down, man.

 

[gmoney112]

No, not "but yards" - lack of critical third down conversions. 0 third down conversions through the air, lack of yards through the air, not as dynamic on his feet, lack of pocket presence, mechanics regressing, accuracy is poorer.

"Your argument is stupid"

Did Russel Wilson, yes or no, progressively get better as the season went on in Seattle? Has Dak regressed the last few games, yes or or? Answers to both are yes.

Wilson accounted for 13 of the TDs scored in December his rookie season. 9 through the air and 4 on the ground. He also averaged about 8.5 yards a pass. Everything he was doing GOT BETTER in the hardest month of football.

Dak is failing. There is no comparison here, Wilson got better and Dak regressed. Attempt to counter, please I would love to see these mental gymnastics.

As for the "playoff" nonsense that you attempted to discredit. That was a hard fought game, both defenses got after RGIII and Wilson pretty good. Wilson took 5 sacks, still found a way to win the game.

The next week, he played damn good football and that "doomsday defense" gave up 30 points. Yet again, Wilson got better when it mattered.

Haha you put "doomsday" in quotes like it was supposed to be a point. Besides the fact they only allowed 12 pts per game over the 6 game stretch prior to the Falcons game. Or the fact they forced 11 turnovers in two games against the bottom feeders.

Fact, the two top 5 teams in pass defense Wilson faced during that stretch, he had 2 TD passes and 1 rushing TD with an INT.

And i'm pretty sure January is after December right? He didn't light the world up against Washington, who had a pass rush and was below league average in every other defensive passing metric, then he went and played a bad Falcons defense. Okay.

Wilson had an amazing last part of his rookie year, but he wasn't perfect. If the 2012 Seattle defense played NYG last Sunday, they'd probably have had 7 turnovers.

I'm pretty sure Wilson is probably better now than he was his rookie year, and he just had an absolute stinker of a game while playing completely average in others. They scored 3 points against the Rams and lost, 6 points against the Cardinals and lost, then scored 5 points against the Bucs and lost. Just a few days ago he threw 5 picks and they got blown out?

Point is, a two game sample size is stupid. Especially when one of them was an away game where the *team* put him in unfavorable down and distances on 50% of the drives against the pass best defense in the NFL in their house. He was about two penalties away from posting up about a 120 rating on the best pass defense in the league.

The other was a bad game for the entire offense. Much like Wilson's wonderful 5 pick performance a few days ago, or the scoring under 7 points three times this year.

**** happens. Dak or may not be regressing, but anyone trying to come to that conclusion now is just trying to push their own agenda.

The same anti-Dak one you've been pushing this entire season, flying in the face of all reason because for some reason you don't like him.

100$ donation wager that Dak posts a 90+ rating this week against the Bucs for a W?

 

[mattjames2010]

Haha you put "doomsday" in quotes like it was supposed to be a point. Besides the fact they only allowed 12 pts per game over the 6 game stretch prior to the Falcons game. Or the fact they forced 11 turnovers in two games against the bottom feeders.

Fact, the two top 5 teams in pass defense Wilson faced during that stretch, he had 2 TD passes and 1 rushing TD with an INT.

And i'm pretty sure January is after December right? He didn't light the world up against Washington, who had a pass rush and was below league average in every other defensive passing metric, then he went and played a bad Falcons defense. Okay.

Wilson had an amazing last part of his rookie year, but he wasn't perfect. If the 2012 Seattle defense played NYG last Sunday, they'd probably have had 7 turnovers.

I'm pretty sure Wilson is probably better now than he was his rookie year, and he just had an absolute stinker of a game while playing completely average in others. They scored 3 points against the Rams and lost, 6 points against the Cardinals and lost, then scored 5 points against the Bucs and lost. Just a few days ago he threw 5 picks and they got blown out?

Point is, a two game sample size is stupid. Especially when one of them was an away game where the *team* put him in unfavorable down and distances on 50% of the drives against the pass best defense in the NFL in their house. He was about two penalties away from posting up about a 120 rating on the best pass defense in the league.

The other was a bad game for the entire offense. Much like Wilson's wonderful 5 pick performance a few days ago, or the scoring under 7 points three times this year.

**** happens. Dak or may not be regressing, but anyone trying to come to that conclusion now is just trying to push their own agenda.

The same anti-Dak one you've been pushing this entire season, flying in the face of all reason because for some reason you don't like him.

100$ donation wager that Dak posts a 90+ rating this week against the Bucs for a W?

And our D has only allowed a little over 10 points the past few games, only gave up 17 to Ravens. But hey, spin spin spin. Either way, Russel Wilson DID NOT regress late in the season, statistical and visual FACT. Moving on.

I didn't say he "lit Washington on fire" - Read my post. That was a great defensive game. But he did not play terribly, he played respectfully. Then had a really good game against the Falcons and the D blew it.

No one said he was "perfect" either. The least that you could do here is keep it on point. The argument is that HE DIDN'T REGRESS. He got BETTER late in the season.

I won't entertain the rest of your comment. Nothing that I hate more than someone who argues against something that wasn't there.

 

[gmoney112]

And our D has only allowed a little over 10 points the past few games, only gave up 17 to Ravens. But hey, spin spin spin. Either way, Russel Wilson DID NOT regress late in the season, statistical and visual FACT. Moving on.

I didn't say he "lit Washington on fire" - Read my post. That was a great defensive game. But he did not play terribly, he played respectfully. Then had a really good game against the Falcons and the D blew it.

No one said he was "perfect" either. The least that you could do here is keep it on point. The argument is that HE DIDN'T REGRESS. He got BETTER late in the season.

I won't entertain the rest of your comment. Nothing that I hate more than someone who argues against something that wasn't there.

Okay. 500$ donation to Reality, he can power CZ for the next few years, that Dak will have a better performance against TB than Wilson's 151 yards, 4.6 YPA, 2 INT, and 38.8 QB rating?

Fact. 11-2 record in one of, if not the toughest, division in the NFL. While playing the AFC North and NFC North, and probably the toughest 3 game stretch against defenses anyone has played all year. Owner of the Cowboys franchise consecutive win record, owner of just about every single rookie 100+ QB rating games record, sole owner of rookie attempts without an INT, and a few others i'm sure i'm forgetting.

Even Carr, an MVP candidate, just went out and threw for 117 yards on 41 attempts, a sweet 2.9 average, and a 49 rating.

Even now Dak is

#3 in passer rating
#4 in YPA

Now run along and play son, leave us grown folk to do the thinking.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

And if the Seahawks had had Tony Romo and kept him on the bench that year, they would've been absolute idiots. With Romo and that defense, they would've won the Super Bowl going away rather than losing in the second round to Atlanta.

 

[dallasfan4lizife]

No, because I like to think positively.

This was clever.

 

[Oh_Canada]

You're looking at accuracy percentages

His final three games ratings were this - 63, 91, 62. As I said, Brady didn't light the league on fire his first year. We all know this, but again, people remember that season, he made the plays when he needed to.

His first year in the league, late down the line, he was pulling off wins late in the fourth quarter. 2 of the 5 fourth quarter comebacks Brady had that year came in December in those games you are saying he "regressed".

Again, the Patriots didn't have much of anything on offense. It was a defensive team, he did not have the talent the Cowboys have now. Despite this, he found ways to win, brought his team back in the 4th. Dak can't even convert a freakin' third down, man.

You are a real cherry picker when it comes to facts.
Brady threw five picks against two td's over his last five, he flat sucked. Bellichek stuck with him and he is now Tom Brady.
Why would you throw an 11-2 qb under the bus for a guy who I don't think has ever been 11-2 and whose last start ended with three picks in three quarters.

 

[kramskoi]

ALL correct and I agree....but you left out ONE huge caveat. Tony Romo wasn't 'backing up' R.Wilson. Therein lies the rub.

Bingo!!! An uncomfortable truth for some that simply cannot be ignored. Personally, I would not have Wilson for my quarterback. There have simply been too many games where he has checked out...like last Sunday. He looked horrible against Dallas in 2014 and he deserved every bit of that loss. He just doesn't impress me. He's a winner and very elusive runner, but to take him as a passer? Not a chance in hell.

 

[waving monkey]

Brady didn't start his first year. His first year starting he won a freakin' Super Bowl. Also, Brady wasn't progressively getting worse throughout the season. Everyone remembers the season Brady had, no he didn't have everything on his shoulders, but Brady was not putting his team in positions to lose. He also did not have the talent we had on his offense, that team was defensive.

Dak has no excuses here to play as poorly as he has. Too much talent on this offense to play like a scrub Browns castoff QB.

Good QB never have bad games,

 

[mattjames2010]

You are a real cherry picker when it comes to facts.
Brady threw five picks against two td's over his last five, he flat sucked. Bellichek stuck with him and he is now Tom Brady.
Why would you throw an 11-2 qb under the bus for a guy who I don't think has ever been 11-2 and whose last start ended with three picks in three quarters.

The discussion here is if Brady regressed. Not if he was perfect.

Those games he won in December were quite important. Two of them needed him to pull of big plays late in the 4th, which he did. There is a reason Brady was considered clutch that season.

 

[kramskoi]

Okay. 500$ donation to Reality, he can power CZ for the next few years, that Dak will have a better performance against TB than Wilson's 151 yards, 4.6 YPA, 2 INT, and 38.8 QB rating?

Fact. 11-2 record in one of, if not the toughest, division in the NFL. While playing the AFC North and NFC North, and probably the toughest 3 game stretch against defenses anyone has played all year. Owner of the Cowboys franchise consecutive win record, owner of just about every single rookie 100+ QB rating games record, sole owner of rookie attempts without an INT, and a few others i'm sure i'm forgetting.

Even Carr, an MVP candidate, just went out and threw for 117 yards on 41 attempts, a sweet 2.9 average, and a 49 rating.

Even now Dak is

#3 in passer rating
#4 in YPA

Now run along and play son, leave us grown folk to do the thinking.

And he couldn't solve the riddle of the Giants in two tries. He in fact looked worse in the second game.

Carr has a dislocated finger taped to another one on his throwing hand, covered by a glove...probably why he looked so dreadful. Stafford is another one who has a similar problem.

Prescott's numbers are certainly excellent. We shall see what that means for playoff games, especially if fate should bring the Giants to Dallas in the divisional round...assuming Dallas secures the #1 seed. We shall see if indeed defensive coordinators have found the kryptonite that brings him back to earth.

Fact of the matter is that no rookie QB has ever even made it to a Superbowl, let alone won it.

 

[mattjames2010]

Okay. 500$ donation to Reality, he can power CZ for the next few years, that Dak will have a better performance against TB than Wilson's 151 yards, 4.6 YPA, 2 INT, and 38.8 QB rating?

Fact. 11-2 record in one of, if not the toughest, division in the NFL. While playing the AFC North and NFC North, and probably the toughest 3 game stretch against defenses anyone has played all year. Owner of the Cowboys franchise consecutive win record, owner of just about every single rookie 100+ QB rating games record, sole owner of rookie attempts without an INT, and a few others i'm sure i'm forgetting.

Even Carr, an MVP candidate, just went out and threw for 117 yards on 41 attempts, a sweet 2.9 average, and a 49 rating.

Even now Dak is

#3 in passer rating
#4 in YPA

Now run along and play son, leave us grown folk to do the thinking.

We are 3-2 against this "tough division" and could easily go .500. We just got swept by the one division rival that can knock us out of HFA. And yet again, answer: Has Dak steadily regressed the past few games in nearly every way?

And yeah, Carr got a lot of crap for his performance. Right on here, many people stating he is no longer an MVP candidate. Yet Prescott steadily declines, and crashes to the bottom, and suddenly we get to look back to what he did pre-Thanksgiving? No. What matters is RIGHT NOW and he looks terrible.

 

[Broges74]

No, because I like to think positively.

Not. You like to think you're right. Been waiting for Dak to slip even 1 time so you can say I told you so over the good of the team.

Sad Cowboy fan.. Go root for the Browns.

 

[gmoney112]

And he couldn't solve the riddle of the Giants in two tries. He in fact looked worse in the second game.

Carr has a dislocated finger taped to another one on his throwing hand, covered by a glove...probably why he looked so dreadful. Stafford is another one who has a similar problem.

Prescott's numbers are certainly excellent. We shall see what that means for playoff games, especially if fate should bring the Giants to Dallas in the divisional round...assuming Dallas secures the #1 seed. We shall see if indeed defensive coordinators have found the kryptonite that brings him back to earth.

Fact of the matter is that no rookie QB has ever even made it to a Superbowl, let alone won it.

No rookie had ever done a lot of the things Dak did this year

And the Giants DC, Spags, is a good coordinator. He's the guy that coached them ruining Brady and the Pats perfect season. He has some monsters up front, and a lot of talent in that secondary. Combined with the fact that he was going to try and assortment of things this game to try and confuse Dak, he ended up finding the right combo. Divisional games are usually weird too, I mean the Seahawks lost to the Rams this year and tied Arizona. Honestly if you're a stats guy, you've almost come to the point where you completely disregard divisional games because a lot of them are outliers. Just how it is.

But you're right, we'll see.

We are 3-2 against this "tough division" and could easily go .500. We just got swept by the one division rival that can knock us out of HFA. And yet again, answer: Has Dak steadily regressed the past few games in nearly every way?

And yeah, Carr got a lot of crap for his performance. Right on here, many people stating he is no longer an MVP candidate. Yet Prescott steadily declines, and crashes to the bottom, and suddenly we get to look back to what he did pre-Thanksgiving? No. What matters is RIGHT NOW and he looks terrible.

And we could just as easily be 5-0, losing by a combined 4 points. If you're using regression in the case of one game that was actually bad, against a divisional opponent (which statistically, are when you get Seattle losing to the Rams, tying the Cards, the Pats having to beat the Jets in the last minute or so, etc) then yeah, he didn't play well against New York, at all. Neither did a lot of guys. His team hurt him against the Vikes. There were more than a few cases where they made it highly improbable. His lone turnover, the fumble, came right some idiot held and made it first and 20, again and he tried to make a play. He had at least 3 more points and possibly a FG if that whack call bringing back Elliott's long play. He converted another 3rd down and 8, and Elliott held making it 3 and 18, good luck with that one. Minnesota is tough enough to beat alone without making yourself one dimensional on 1st and 15+ every other drive. Or holding on every big play he makes, or fumbling on a jet sweep.

One way or another, we'll see this weekend. If he goes out and looks like crap, i'll admit he's regressing. But when we win, and he has a pretty good game against the best pass defense in the NFL the last month, you're going to start showing the future QB of our Cowboys some more love.