Rookie Seasons: Dak vs R Wilson

[mattjames2010]

No rookie had ever done a lot of the things Dak did this year

And the Giants DC, Spags, is a good coordinator. He's the guy that coached them ruining Brady and the Pats perfect season. He has some monsters up front, and a lot of talent in that secondary. Combined with the fact that he was going to try and assortment of things this game to try and confuse Dak, he ended up finding the right combo. Divisional games are usually weird too, I mean the Seahawks lost to the Rams this year and tied Arizona. Honestly if you're a stats guy, you've almost come to the point where you completely disregard divisional games because a lot of them are outliers. Just how it is.

But you're right, we'll see.



And we could just as easily be 5-0, losing by a combined 4 points. If you're using regression in the case of one game that was actually bad, against a divisional opponent (which statistically, are when you get Seattle losing to the Rams, tying the Cards, the Pats having to beat the Jets in the last minute or so, etc) then yeah, he didn't play well against New York, at all. Neither did a lot of guys. His team hurt him against the Vikes. There were more than a few cases where they made it highly improbable. His lone turnover, the fumble, came right some idiot held and made it first and 20, again and he tried to make a play. He had at least 3 more points and possibly a FG if that whack call bringing back Elliott's long play. He converted another 3rd down and 8, and Elliott held making it 3 and 18, good luck with that one. Minnesota is tough enough to beat alone without making yourself one dimensional on 1st and 15+ every other drive. Or holding on every big play he makes, or fumbling on a jet sweep.

One way or another, we'll see this weekend. If he goes out and looks like crap, i'll admit he's regressing. But when we win, and he has a pretty good game against the best pass defense in the NFL the last month, you're going to start showing the future QB of our Cowboys some more love.

"And we could easily be 5-0"

And yet, we're not. That's not reality, now is it? The reality is, Prescott has stunk it up the past few weeks, and we are lucky our D kept the Vikings and Giants in check. It would be one thing if we were moving the ball and Dak had some mistakes, that's not what is the issue. It's the fact that he's part of the reason we look like the Browns right now on offense.

"If you're using regression in the case of one game that was actually bad,"

Serious question, are you intentionally ignoring what 90% of Dak's criticizers are saying? Who here said "one game"? Me, Fuzzy, multiple others have pointed out this HAS NOT JUST STARTED, we saw these issues a while ago. So no, not just "one game", they were just far more apparent the past two weeks and against the Giants.

"His team hurt him against the Vikes. "

Yes, those 0 third down conversions through the air were on everyone else, not Dak. Every third down we've had were impossible to convert.

"Minnesota is tough enough to beat"

They've lost 5 out of their last 7, beating the Cards and Jags. Not "tough" to beat. We didn't go up against the Pats.

And Dak having a high rating in the Tampa Bay game matters none to me, just like it hasn't all season. Not what I'm watching, I'm watching his mechanics, poise, if he is consistently putting zip on passes that are farther than 10 yards. Him hitting WRs with 5 yards of separation while he has 10 minutes in the pocket is not impressive to me. To you, that's Joe Montana-like play.

 

[noshame]

Romo = Matt Flynn?

What were RG3's numbers again? You know, the guy with the rookie record for passer rating.

RG3 weapon was his legs, once that was gone, so was he.

 

[gmoney112]

"And we could easily be 5-0"

And yet, we're not. That's not reality, now is it? The reality is, Prescott has stunk it up the past few weeks, and we are lucky our D kept the Vikings and Giants in check. It would be one thing if we were moving the ball and Dak had some mistakes, that's not what is the issue. It's the fact that he's part of the reason we look like the Browns right now on offense.

"If you're using regression in the case of one game that was actually bad,"

Serious question, are you intentionally ignoring what 90% of Dak's criticizers are saying? Who here said "one game"? Me, Fuzzy, multiple others have pointed out this HAS NOT JUST STARTED, we saw these issues a while ago. So no, not just "one game", they were just far more apparent the past two weeks and against the Giants.

"His team hurt him against the Vikes. "

Yes, those 0 third down conversions through the air were on everyone else, not Dak. Every third down we've had were impossible to convert.

"Minnesota is tough enough to beat"

They've lost 5 out of their last 7, beating the Cards and Jags. Not "tough" to beat. We didn't go up against the Pats.

And Dak having a high rating in the Tampa Bay game matters none to me, just like it hasn't all season. Not what I'm watching, I'm watching his mechanics, poise, if he is consistently putting zip on passes that are farther than 10 yards. Him hitting WRs with 5 yards of separation while he has 10 minutes in the pocket is not impressive to me. To you, that's Joe Montana-like play.

And the reality is we're 3-2, not whatever you said. The irony is killing me inside.

Dude you called him a dink and dunk QB when he was behind Matt Ryan only in YPA.

And you're also a poor sport. Anyways, I really posted more because I'm procrastinating on a deadline, I really posted just so everyone could see how ridiculous you are. But I'm pretty sure they all knew already.

Night boo

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Stop with the name calling and personal attacks.

 

[Sarge]

The thought of starting Romo in the playoffs after not having played in so long is enough to keep me up at night. The future is now and the experience necessary........ 02.

 

[Oh_Canada]

The discussion here is if Brady regressed. Not if he was perfect.

Those games he won in December were quite important. Two of them needed him to pull of big plays late in the 4th, which he did. There is a reason Brady was considered clutch that season.

He did regress, look at his numbers first half of 2001 and compare to second half.

 

[mattjames2010]

He did regress, look at his numbers first half of 2001 and compare to second half.

Except no, he didn't. Goodness. He was winning games late in the 4th, he then played well (No, he wasn't tearing it up) in the playoffs and made the plays needed to win a freakin' Super Bowl. He did not "regress" - Wow. Revisionist history around here.

 

[Hoofbite]

Did a little digging around Russell Wilson's rookie year. I compare Dak to him the most. Both came into similar situations. Drafted 3rd and 4th round respectively. None were supposed to be the starter. Seattle just signed Matt Flynn since he was the flavor of the month due to one single game with GB the very last game of 2011. Only difference is Russell just won the job outright. Dak got the job because of 2 injuries. But that's irrelevant, though.

Russell's final regular season stats were 26TDs/10 INT and a 64% completion percentage. A passer rating of 100. He was sacked 33 times for a loss of 203yds. He also had 489yds rushing and 4 TDs. Yards/attempt 7.93.

With 3 games to go, Dak's stats are as follows:
20 TDs/4 INTs and a 66% completion percentage. A passer rating of 102.7. He has been sacked 21 times for 117yds. He has 218 rushing yds and 5TDs. Yards/attempt 7.95

They are about as similar as you can get for their rookie years. Now here are their 2 worst games of their respective rookie seasons. I am going by passer rating.

R Wilson (Game #7) @SF Niners (L 6-13) 9/23 122yds 0TDs/1 INT. 39% Sacked 2 times for 7 yards. Yards/attempt 5.30 Passer rating 38.7
(Game #4) @ Rams (L 13-19) 17/25 160yds 0TDS/3 INTs. 68% Sacked 2 times for 20 yards. Yards/attempt 6.40 Passer rating 45.8

Dak (Game #13) @Giants (L 7-10) 17/37 165yds 1TD/2INTs 46%. Sacked 3 times for 13 yards. Yards/attempt 4.46 Passer rating 45.4
(Game #1) vs Giants (L 19-20) 25/45 227 yds. 0TDS/0 INTs 56%. Sacked 0 times. Yards/attempt 5.04 Passer rating 69.4

Did Seattle panic and make a move? No. They stayed the course. Dak and Wilson are very similar their rookie years. Too many knee jerked over one poor game. But he's a damn rookie. Hell Peyton Manning as a seasoned vet has had putrid games in the playoffs. It happens. Too many people got a fogged brain and did not step away and realize what was happening. Dak still has a lot to learn but he's playing great this season. And one little off day and the pitchforks come out. Everyone just chill out.

Seattle had Matt Flynn as their alternative.

Bottom line is if Dak bounces back he'll stay in. If he continues to play poorly then he should be yanked.

 

[stilltheguru88]

lol sad sad sad. not you OP. I think some fans want Dak to fail.

 

[superjoe]

Did a little digging around Russell Wilson's rookie year. I compare Dak to him the most. Both came into similar situations. Drafted 3rd and 4th round respectively. None were supposed to be the starter. Seattle just signed Matt Flynn since he was the flavor of the month due to one single game with GB the very last game of 2011. Only difference is Russell just won the job outright. Dak got the job because of 2 injuries. But that's irrelevant, though.

Russell's final regular season stats were 26TDs/10 INT and a 64% completion percentage. A passer rating of 100. He was sacked 33 times for a loss of 203yds. He also had 489yds rushing and 4 TDs. Yards/attempt 7.93.

With 3 games to go, Dak's stats are as follows:
20 TDs/4 INTs and a 66% completion percentage. A passer rating of 102.7. He has been sacked 21 times for 117yds. He has 218 rushing yds and 5TDs. Yards/attempt 7.95

They are about as similar as you can get for their rookie years. Now here are their 2 worst games of their respective rookie seasons. I am going by passer rating.

R Wilson (Game #7) @SF Niners (L 6-13) 9/23 122yds 0TDs/1 INT. 39% Sacked 2 times for 7 yards. Yards/attempt 5.30 Passer rating 38.7
(Game #4) @ Rams (L 13-19) 17/25 160yds 0TDS/3 INTs. 68% Sacked 2 times for 20 yards. Yards/attempt 6.40 Passer rating 45.8

Dak (Game #13) @Giants (L 7-10) 17/37 165yds 1TD/2INTs 46%. Sacked 3 times for 13 yards. Yards/attempt 4.46 Passer rating 45.4
(Game #1) vs Giants (L 19-20) 25/45 227 yds. 0TDS/0 INTs 56%. Sacked 0 times. Yards/attempt 5.04 Passer rating 69.4

Did Seattle panic and make a move? No. They stayed the course. Dak and Wilson are very similar their rookie years. Too many knee jerked over one poor game. But he's a damn rookie. Hell Peyton Manning as a seasoned vet has had putrid games in the playoffs. It happens. Too many people got a fogged brain and did not step away and realize what was happening. Dak still has a lot to learn but he's playing great this season. And one little off day and the pitchforks come out. Everyone just chill out.

Appreciate the post, I like the comparison. To add in 2012 Seattle finished first in points allowed on defense that's comparable to our defense this year although they had more turnovers and sacks. They finished as the 5th seed and lost at the Georgia dome to the Falcons after wining their first wildcard game. We are in position to get HFA so that would be huge.

Side note: Ravens won the superbowl that year with the 10th scoring offense and the 12th fewest points defense, they got Suggs back for the playoff run and he had two sacks against the Niners. They had talent all over the defense and Rey Lewis. One thing they had was great special teams.

If we can make it to the playoffs and get our pressure up on the Quarterbacks I think we can make a run and maybe get to the superbowl with Dak and a strong run game. Even then its gonna be tough to beat New England this year, they look unstoppable and just keep getting better, Floyd is gonna blow the top off defenses. Its real hard to win the superbowl with a rookie QB, I don't think its ever been done..

 

[Silver N Blue]

No Romo, no elite backup, not a legit comparison. Leave Romo and any switch talk out and just compare Wilson and Dak and you have a great thread. Putting Romo and using your stick with comparison makes this a thread with no merit. Stick with the facts and you have a great comparison with no reason to add any opinion. The stats speak for themselves.

 

[daveferr33]

Can we all agree....

On anything?

No.

 

[black label]

lol sad sad sad. not you OP. I think some fans want Dak to fail.

When you have Romo on the bench and you have Dak looking like turd polish the over last 8 quarters
and if it continues for 2 or 3 more quarters more you have to yank him, Its not rocket science

 

[Dodger12]

When you have Romo on the bench and you have Dak looking like turd polish the over last 8 quarters
and if it continues for 2 or 3 more quarters more you have to yank him, Its not rocket science

It's the same old fall back for some folks.....the excuse that some fans "want Dak to fail," or "want Garrett to fail." It's stupid. Dak's recent play has created the current controversy. And it's not that far fetched that a 4th round rookie QB hit a wall after playing well and having defensive coordinators figure out what he does well and try to take that away from him. He's young and he'll learn but we have options if he continues to struggle.

 

[Proof]

Haha you put "doomsday" in quotes like it was supposed to be a point. Besides the fact they only allowed 12 pts per game over the 6 game stretch prior to the Falcons game. Or the fact they forced 11 turnovers in two games against the bottom feeders.

Fact, the two top 5 teams in pass defense Wilson faced during that stretch, he had 2 TD passes and 1 rushing TD with an INT.

And i'm pretty sure January is after December right? He didn't light the world up against Washington, who had a pass rush and was below league average in every other defensive passing metric, then he went and played a bad Falcons defense. Okay.

Wilson had an amazing last part of his rookie year, but he wasn't perfect. If the 2012 Seattle defense played NYG last Sunday, they'd probably have had 7 turnovers.

I'm pretty sure Wilson is probably better now than he was his rookie year, and he just had an absolute stinker of a game while playing completely average in others. They scored 3 points against the Rams and lost, 6 points against the Cardinals and lost, then scored 5 points against the Bucs and lost. Just a few days ago he threw 5 picks and they got blown out?

Point is, a two game sample size is stupid. Especially when one of them was an away game where the *team* put him in unfavorable down and distances on 50% of the drives against the pass best defense in the NFL in their house. He was about two penalties away from posting up about a 120 rating on the best pass defense in the league.

The other was a bad game for the entire offense. Much like Wilson's wonderful 5 pick performance a few days ago, or the scoring under 7 points three times this year.

**** happens. Dak or may not be regressing, but anyone trying to come to that conclusion now is just trying to push their own agenda.

The same anti-Dak one you've been pushing this entire season, flying in the face of all reason because for some reason you don't like him.

100$ donation wager that Dak posts a 90+ rating this week against the Bucs for a W?

Excellent post. To piggyback a bit, it's really disingenuous to point to a tough two game stretch and say "see that's what everyone said about him coming out" when he's got a much larger stretch of making them look foolish. It's hard not to regress from MVP level play,and eve. Harder against great defenses. I won't bury my head in the sand and say that there's no cause for concern because there is, but concern is not panic nor definitive. I think / hope he regroups well and has a nice game against TB. If not well then the concern becomes a bit more validated. I think we're relatively spoiled. If we were 8-5 right now instead of 11-2 I truly believe we'd be much more forgiving of Dak and still fully supportive. Crazy how his own stellar play to this point is what is damning him now

 

[Proof]

Also it's relatively silly to just assume throwing Romo in there cures what ails us, but man is it difficult not to wonder. Precarious position were in fellas. Those damn Cowboys, never a dull moment.

 

[Dodger12]

If we were 8-5 right now instead of 11-2 I truly believe we'd be much more forgiving of Dak and still fully supportive. Crazy how his own stellar play to this point is what is damning him now

If we were 8 and 5 right now in the thick of the race, Romo would have already replaced Dak. Dak's play and resulting record is what kept Romo on the bench and it's his play that might bring Romo back off the bench.

 

[Proof]

If we were 8 and 5 right now in the thick of the race, Romo would have already replaced Dak. Dak's play and resulting record is what kept Romo on the bench and it's his play that might bring Romo back off the bench.

Pretty much. I just meant in a vacuum. But yes you're right

 

[dallasfan4lizife]

On anything?

No.

Seems legit.

 

[Romotil45]

Did a little digging around Russell Wilson's rookie year. I compare Dak to him the most. Both came into similar situations. Drafted 3rd and 4th round respectively. None were supposed to be the starter. Seattle just signed Matt Flynn since he was the flavor of the month due to one single game with GB the very last game of 2011. Only difference is Russell just won the job outright. Dak got the job because of 2 injuries. But that's irrelevant, though.

Russell's final regular season stats were 26TDs/10 INT and a 64% completion percentage. A passer rating of 100. He was sacked 33 times for a loss of 203yds. He also had 489yds rushing and 4 TDs. Yards/attempt 7.93.

With 3 games to go, Dak's stats are as follows:
20 TDs/4 INTs and a 66% completion percentage. A passer rating of 102.7. He has been sacked 21 times for 117yds. He has 218 rushing yds and 5TDs. Yards/attempt 7.95

They are about as similar as you can get for their rookie years. Now here are their 2 worst games of their respective rookie seasons. I am going by passer rating.

R Wilson (Game #7) @SF Niners (L 6-13) 9/23 122yds 0TDs/1 INT. 39% Sacked 2 times for 7 yards. Yards/attempt 5.30 Passer rating 38.7
(Game #4) @ Rams (L 13-19) 17/25 160yds 0TDS/3 INTs. 68% Sacked 2 times for 20 yards. Yards/attempt 6.40 Passer rating 45.8

Dak (Game #13) @Giants (L 7-10) 17/37 165yds 1TD/2INTs 46%. Sacked 3 times for 13 yards. Yards/attempt 4.46 Passer rating 45.4
(Game #1) vs Giants (L 19-20) 25/45 227 yds. 0TDS/0 INTs 56%. Sacked 0 times. Yards/attempt 5.04 Passer rating 69.4

Did Seattle panic and make a move? No. They stayed the course. Dak and Wilson are very similar their rookie years. Too many knee jerked over one poor game. But he's a damn rookie. Hell Peyton Manning as a seasoned vet has had putrid games in the playoffs. It happens. Too many people got a fogged brain and did not step away and realize what was happening. Dak still has a lot to learn but he's playing great this season. And one little off day and the pitchforks come out. Everyone just chill out.

I agree that Russell Wilson was indeed a rookie game manager and playing with a very good OL the best rusher in the league at the time and their numbers are similar but the difference is that defense was much much better than ours is now. Also does Russell Wilson even play that year if Romo was on the team ? Not likely. That being said if we want to move forward with Dak in the playoffs I'm OK with it but they should have moved Romo before the deadline if that is the case. Russel Wilson did not have a top 10 QB with the 3rd highest QBR sitting.