Roster and draft

[DFWJC]

No doubt, value charts can be dismissed when there is a potential Blue Chip caliber prospect available, and analysts can argue till the cows come home over what qualifies one as a blue chip prospect.
If any potential considered Blue Chip prospect should happen to be sitting at 10 still, than you do as you say,,, draft him or exploit the hell out of another teams knee jerk reaction and trade down and take them for everything you can get.

Respectfully......Name a few examples (outside the craziness that goes on in the top 3 picks) of when the value chart did not apply, even if the player involved was a blue-chip player.

Not 20-30 years ago, but within the last 10-15 years or so.
People keep saying this but there is very little or no data to back it up.

If teams think a player is great, he simply goes earlier in the draft. And teams that trade up, for anyone, almost never overpay by more than 5% or so vs the charts.

By the time you get to the 10th pick, there is no huge exploiting going on...maybe minor, but nothing big.
Mahomes went 10th and it followed the chart, for example.

Hey, never any harm in TRYING to gouge someone---like 10 for 13 and 47. But what will happen (and always does happen) is you just end up keeping the pick. Which is fine.

 

[Typhus]

Respectfully......Name a few examples (outside the craziness that goes on in the top 3 picks) of when the value chart did not apply, even if the player involved was a blue-chip player.

Not 20-30 years ago, but within the last 10-15 years or so.
People keep saying this but there is very little or no data to back it up.

If teams think a player is great, he simply goes earlier in the draft. And teams that trade up, for anyone, almost never overpay by more than 5% or so vs the charts.

By the time you get to the 10th pick, there is no huge exploiting going on...maybe minor, but nothing big.
Mahomes went 10th and it followed the chart, for example.

Hey, never any harm in TRYING to gouge someone---like 10 for 13 and 47. But what will happen (and always does happen) is you just end up keeping the pick. Which is fine.

And respect,, I get it, and understand your premise,
Just saying that you always take the best deal on the table, it’s pre draft hype, but if the phone rings and someone is having an I don’t care type of moment,,and willing to sale a few cows on the farm then you take a good look and weigh your options.
There is no rule in the NFL that limits what another team can offer, so you never can say never

 

[Verdict]

I hear you....but I DO know. At least for the last 15 years, that is. The data is there. I'm not talking feelings or theory here, I am talking actual facts on how it has gone for a very long time.
People keep saying there are overpays, but I'm telling you there are not ...at least not big overpay like we are describing.

That trade is a rumor
I bet almost certainly there are pieces left out of that theoretical trade and that the Chargers would also get pick 50 or something close in value.

OR, that trade is to move up to 4, not 7.

Hey Sandy, I would never say 100% one way or the other...anything can happen.

And look, if that rumored trade actually happens, then we'll have our first one like since 2004! Never say never, I guess.

I am not arguing against your point. But I will say that it would not surprise me to see a team overpay if they really want a player. Or if a team really doesn’t have a player they want they may move back cheaply.

I would think that the trades that might be a major deviation from the draft chart are likely to be inside the top 10, involve a QB, or involve a highly valued player falling below where he is estimated to go. All three would make it even more likely.

 

[Verdict]

Respectfully......Name a few examples (outside the craziness that goes on in the top 3 picks) of when the value chart did not apply, even if the player involved was a blue-chip player.

Not 20-30 years ago, but within the last 10-15 years or so.
People keep saying this but there is very little or no data to back it up.

If teams think a player is great, he simply goes earlier in the draft. And teams that trade up, for anyone, almost never overpay by more than 5% or so vs the charts.

By the time you get to the 10th pick, there is no huge exploiting going on...maybe minor, but nothing big.
Mahomes went 10th and it followed the chart, for example.

Hey, never any harm in TRYING to gouge someone---like 10 for 13 and 47. But what will happen (and always does happen) is you just end up keeping the pick. Which is fine.

Yes. The effort to rape a team should always be present.

 

[john van brocklin]

Time to get down to brass tacks on the draft. If Kyle Pitts is available at the 10 spot then Jerry will definitely take him. This does not preclude Dallas from moving back into the 1st round with 2022 picks. For those that say Pitts in no way would be there at 10, just remember last year, heck any year when no one believes a guy will fall.

And if Sewell is there at 10 then expect Dallas to trade down with the Chargers so Herbert gets his college blindside protector. Cost? Expect it to be the 13th and 47th picks. Dallas would still get Horn at 13.

It appears that Quinn will be heavily involved in the D picks and will most likely over rule the scouts. They will be guys that Quinn believes are right for his defense. Expect a couple of DTs like McNeil and Wilson, Lbs on the lighter side but fast and great tacklers, DEs that have great length and speed and a free safety that can cover like a corner.

If Dallas can come away with 3 starters and 3 good depth guys, it will be a successful draft. Just quit believing the mock drafts and so called experts because they are at most guessing what Dallas will do and hardly ever take into effect what Dallas has already on the roster.

Take the OL as an example. The kid from Mexico is now expected to be a good to great OT. Steele is very much liked by the coaches to be a very good interior OL and Knight looking to be a more than capable RT. Doesn't mean we won't draft OL but it isn't devoid of capable guys.

Also expect Dallas to sign 2 or 3 free agents after the draft like a Sherman or Wright or Richardson or Hooker. It will all depend on how the draft falls for us.

Nice write up, if we could get an early 2nd to move back to 13 would be outstanding!

 

[john van brocklin]

Who told you the kid from Mexico was going to be good to great?

Who is this player?

 

[john van brocklin]

Actually the roster is not in bad shape, but not great either. But better than most think.
We can have some decent depth, if the FA's work out this time. And get a few starters, or soon to be starters in the draft.

They positioned themselves for BPA again, as they have needs pretty much across the board. CB, S, LB being the most in need. I know many feel OL is up there also. I am one that does not feel it is an immediate need. Same with TE, however if Pitts is there you can't pass on him. Just as if Sewell is there, I don't think I would complain, depending what CB is there.
However if both or all 3, then trade down no lower than 15.

A lot of options sitting at #10 as the top 9 will be QB heavy drafted. I really hope a few QB's are sitting there at 10, and some team offers multiple #1's.

Yes sir!

 

[JoeKing]

We take Sewell if he's there. JMO

Your opinion is better than most in the case. Sewell should be the Cowboys 1st round target above all others.

 

[Sandyf]

Who is this player?

Issac Alarcon

 

[Oz-of-Cowboy-Country]

Yes. The effort to rape a team should always be present.

The effort to rake a team should always be present.

That other "R" word you used is just wrong, IMO. Just saying. Rake them over the coals.

 

[buybuydandavis]

And if Sewell is there at 10 then expect Dallas to trade down with the Chargers so Herbert gets his college blindside protector. Cost? Expect it to be the 13th and 47th picks. Dallas would still get Horn at 13.

Sewell is there we take him. Top 5 Franchise LT at 10. Take him. That's just way too much value to pass up.

The proposed trade value is profit relative to the chart, but not relative to Sewell. Hmmm, though it's close. I could see doing it either way. I'd be happy to play trade back at that kind of profit again and again all the way back to Round 2. The value for our needs is more in rounds 2-3 anyway.

Drafttek lets you select a team to highlite all picks and show total draft value. Nice. Lots of picks coming for us.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=dal

 

[buybuydandavis]

Take the OL as an example. The kid from Mexico is now expected to be a good to great OT.

By whom besides his mom?

 

[buybuydandavis]

Also expect Dallas to sign 2 or 3 free agents after the draft like a Sherman or Wright or Richardson or Hooker.

ET gonna be phoning home to Quinn.

 

[visionary]

I'm sorry and don't mean any real disrespect here but.....

The idea that the Chargers would give Dallas 13 and 47 to move up 3 spots (150 pts) is just preposterous.
Literally impossible. Never, ever has happened nor would happen.
Honestly, 13 and 77 would probably still be too much, let alone 13 and 47.

For starters, Dallas would probably just run to the podium and take Sewell

But if they traded to 13, this is more likely the trade

• Dallas gets 13 and 77
• LAC get 10 and 138...and maybe 192 as well

not a chance

they’re trading up to get their franchise LT

if I don’t get their second I’ll take Sewell and they can beat it

in fact, I wouldn’t even trade down is just take Sewell

 

[Blast From The Past]

Cleveland gave Detroit its second rounder to move from 7 to 6 to select Winslow Jr.

HAD to have THAT guy! "Matchup nightmare" at TE....son of the greatest TE of all time. No one can cover him!! Guaranteed HOF player.

Sounds pretty close to the Pitts mantra. The generational thing got me onboard the Pitts train however I've cooled off on that aspect somewhat.

 

[plasticman]

Every mock draft begins deteriorating the moments teams begin to trade.

 

[fivetwos]

Sounds pretty close to the Pitts mantra. The generational thing got me onboard the Pitts train however I've cooled off on that aspect somewhat.

There's literally one TE drafted in the top 10 that didn't bust....Vernon Davis....and while he was a pretty good player, wasn't great.

It's kinda funny how those supposed mismatches aren't really that once you get to the NFL.

If you're drafting in the top 10, forget about tight end....unless of course, he is the next uncoverable matchup nightmare.

Please.

 

[john van brocklin]

Issac Alarcon

Thanks !

 

[Frosty]

Nice write up, if we could get an early 2nd to move back to 13 would be outstanding!

Agree,,,Never say never, look at what Baltimore got for Orlando Brown.

Traded the Chiefs' 2021 picks 31, 94, and 136 in addition to a 2022 fifth-rounder for Orlando Brown

 

[DFWJC]

not a chance

they’re trading up to get their franchise LT

if I don’t get their second I’ll take Sewell and they can beat it

in fact, I wouldn’t even trade down is just take Sewell

Yeah, I'd take Sewell too.

And that's what would happen if the only trade we offered was 10 for 13 and 47.
There would 100% for sure be no trade so we would just take Sewell if we wanted him and they would keep both of their high picks.
Simple as that.