Safety Coverage Statistics - Targets, Passes Allowed, and Yards Allowed

[jterrell]

I'm not using this as a Hamlin vs. Sensabaugh argument. I think both are very very good. I like Sensabaugh and want us to sign him long-term.

And I realize that there is a deficiency in the statistics in that some safeties play more man coverage than others (the strong safeties in particular). But the free safeties play a similar amount of zone coverage and this is a comparison against all safeties. Very clearly there will be some outliers who play more of a particular type of coverage than others which distorts their statistics.

But the entire point of this thread is not to make a perfect comparison of Hamlin to every other safety in the league. The point of this thread is to show that Hamlin (1) gets targeted very little compared to his peers, (2) gives up few passes compared to his peers, and (3) gives up little yardage compared to his peers. Those three goals are the primary goes of a free safety and he's at the top of the league in comparison to his peers in achieving those goals.

I wish I could go with that but unfortunately the flaws in your methods show up in that context and yet apply across the board.

QB rating, success rate per attempt, TDs allowed, and yards allowed are far bigger signs of a good coverage safety than attempts.

The more I look at the numbers the more I think Hamlin rather sucks. And also on a side note just how poorly Newman is playing overall this year Didn't realize he was giving up such a high QB rating and such a high rate of success against.

 

[theogt]

1) You still suck at stat analysis I see. Its not the sample size for comparison it is the individuals sample size. You grant that the sample size is too small.

2) Thanks for making my argument for me. We both agree that they play mostly zone. As such individual coverage is rarely taken into account while taking data.

3) Oh I know what you posted. The issue here though is you are trying to cherry pick a facet of their games and ignoring the biggestr flaws. Hamlin's timing and tackling are atrocious.

1. Congratulations at arguing that 1000+ snaps is a small sample size. I said that 8 passes itself is a small sample size. If you're going to analyze the results of those 8 passes, that's a small sample size. If you're going to analyze the results of 1000+ plays, it's not a small sample size.

Which is a better player?

Player A - 1000 snaps, 100 passes given up, 80 QB rating given up.
Player B - 1000 snaps, 10 passes given up, 150 QB rating given up.

Without knowing more, you could assume that Player B had the better year.

3. He's a free safety. Looking at how well he does in coverage is not cherry picking. You hear all the time here that he's terrible in coverage and gives up huge plays all the time. It's simply not true.

But you are still not adding correctly. Sensabaugh played more snaps and gave up less yards. That is a per snap number edge you give to Hamlin which is absolutely false.

What are you talking about? Sensabaugh played fewer snaps and gave up more yardage.

Hamlin gives up more yards per year both in 2008 and 2009 and he gives up more TDs in both years.

Hamlin has given up fewer yards in 2008 and 2009 combined. I think you're looking at the wrong stats.

You want to note he is hardly targeted but when he is it goes for a higher success rate, more yardage and a much higher rate of TD than Sensabaugh.

I could argue Ratliff is a better coverage guy than Hamlin based on attempts. That is seriously delusional logic.

Because Hamlin plays 20 yards off the ball as a second defender using attempts is just silly.

Beyond all that a 9 year old can watch both guys play understand who covers better.

Newman has been targeted over 50 times and Jenkins 40 times. By your argument both are far worse in coverage then Hamlin.

You do realize all of this is irrelevant to my point?

Regardless, can we not make this a Sensabaugh vs. Hamlin?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

dude, theo, you can't 1st compare the 2 ,and then suddenly decide that that's not an issue anymore

 

[theogt]

I wish I could go with that but unfortunately the flaws in your methods show up in that context and yet apply across the board.

There is no flaw in the method. The method tells exactly what it's supposed to tell. You just want to ignore what it tells because you think there's a better conclusion to look at.

QB rating, success rate per attempt, TDs allowed, and yards allowed are far bigger signs of a good coverage safety than attempts.

QB rating is only better when there is a larger sample size.

Success rate per attempt is only better when there is a larger sample size.

TDs allowed is a good statistic. I didn't include that in my chart and should have (thought about it after the fact, but was too lazy to go back and insert the numbers). But it doesn't change what the other numbers say about Hamlin's coverage.

Yards allowed is a FANTASTIC statistic to look at. And Hamlin is at the top of the league in terms of least amount of yards given up.

The more I look at the numbers the more I think Hamlin rather sucks. And also on a side note just how poorly Newman is playing overall this year Didn't realize he was giving up such a high QB rating and such a high rate of success against.

You can look at those statistics (QB rating and success percentage), but it's ridiculous to look at those only due to the small sample size.

 

[theogt]

dude, theo, you can't 1st compare the 2 ,and then suddenly decide that that's not an issue anymore

I wasn't intending to compare the two in the OP. I simply highlighted them due to them both being Cowboys. I said in a separate post that I think that Hamlin is a better coverage safety because I just do, but that was not the intent of the thread at all.

 

[theogt]

Bottom line:

1. Hamlin gets targeted less than his peers.
2. Hamlin gives up fewer passes than his peers.
3. Hamlin gives up fewer yards than his peers.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Its more like

Player A had 140 snaps and blah blah blah blah
Player B had 4 snaps blah blah blah

Which is the better player..

You don't know because the sample size for player B is too small. As I say you suck at stat analysis.

Oh and do you have any idea how these stat are even compiled. IE in the case of a double team who gets credit for the reception or does the safety get a demerit if he is late getting over for deep help?

Because I sincerely doubt that they do and those as well as tackling are huge issues with Hamlin

Finally you made this a Hamlin vs Sensabaugh thread when you highlighted both from the get go.

 

[theogt]

Its more like

Player A had 140 snaps and blah blah blah blah
Player B had 4 snaps blah blah blah

Which is the better player..

You don't know because the sample size for player B is too small. As I say you suck at stat analysis.

Oh and do you have any idea how these stat are even compiled. IE in the case of a double team who gets credit for the reception or does the safety get a demerit if he is late getting over for deep help?

Because I sincerely doubt that they do and those as well as tackling are huge issues with Hamlin

Finally you made this a Hamlin vs Sensabaugh thread when you highlighted both from the get go.

The sample size for the statistics I'm looking at is 1000+ snaps. You can't claim small sample size.

You can dismiss the statistics because you think they're erroneously compiled. That's your choice. People do tend to ignore statistics when they do not quite fit their perception.

I highlighted Hamlin and Sensabaugh because they're Cowboys and I knew they would be the first two players people were looking for.

 

[Frozen700]

Bottom line:

1. Hamlin gets targeted less than his peers.
2. Hamlin gives up fewer passes than his peers.
3. Hamlin gives up fewer yards than his peers.

he also takes bad angles, knocks others off pursuit,misses tackles, and is sometimes late in coverage help, or poor with it(the play vs carolina, that was a Offensive PI, if not for that, TD)

i like him i really do, but the stats don't tell it all....i will admit, hes been better the past 2 games...i hope he keeps it up

 

[The Realist]

Are we to believe that guys like Ed Reed and Darrin Sharper get their picks due to luck and poor play by the offense

You can't fix stupid.

 

[theogt]

Big plays given up by Hamlin to D. Jackson:

Zero.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Big plays given up by Hamlin to D. Jackson:

Zero.

taken himself out of a running play (which was the longest of the night) - 1

missed tackle - 1

INT - 0

pass defense - 0

forced fumble - 0

fumble recovery - 0

btw, Hamlin was nowhere near being in Jackson's area

 

[casmith07]

Wins against Philadelphia this season = 1.
Losses = 0.

Bob - I would expect better from you, given your post count.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Wins against Philadelphia this season = 1.
Losses = 0.

Bob - I would expect better from you, given your post count.

why just me? theo revived the thread, not I