Schefter on Philly radio

[DFWJC]

I am going to have to respectfully disagree with you here.

In the last 2 decades, 6 Super Bowl Champions have been quarterbacks that were drafted at #1 overall, that is 30% of the Super Bowls over that time frame. I would not characterize 30% as an "anomaly".

If you look at the breakdown of Super Bowl wins in the last 2 decades by where the QBs were drafted it looks like this:

First overall = 6 Super Bowl wins or 30%
Top 15 = 9 Super Bowl wins or 45%

1st Round = 11 Super Bowl wins or 55%
2nd Round = 2 Super Bowl wins or 10%
3rd Round = 1 Super Bowl win or 5%
6th Round = 4 Super Bowl wins or 20%
9th Round = 1 Super Bowl win or 5%
UDFA = 1 Super Bowl win or 5%

Now, one might look at the 6th Round and say "see, 20% of the last 20 Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted in the 6th Round." Well, that's true but it is also true that all four of those were won by the same guy, Tom Brady. I would say that is more of an anomaly than a Top 5 QB winning the Super Bowl.

For those that are curious, 3 different QBs drafted first overall have won Super Bowls and 7 different QBs drafted in the 1st round have won Super Bowls.

I'm really just talking about 1st or, to lessor extent, the 2nd round.
Hoping to get one later, is just hoping. Could happen but I wouldn't count on it.

Sometime in round 1 does not mean it has to be top 5.
But I'd still throw Brady in there just because it can happen
That wasn't really what I was talking about.

Sorry if I didn't look it but who are these 6 Super Bowl winning QBs you speak of in 20 years?
Off hand, I can think of two...Manning and Manning, I probably forgot someone....
Oops...just noticed way back in 90s there was Elway.
Same goes for top 5 even.

Yet I can think of a bunch outside he top 5. Way more.

We both agree that the higher you are in the draft, on average, the better your chances.
These guys are not projected to be John Elway or Peyton Manning.

 

[reddyuta]

THis has been my feeling from the beginning and Jerrys over the top announcements of not taking a QB at 4 every time he sees a reporter confirms it for me.

 

[MrPhil]

I'm really just talking about 1st or, to lessor extent, the 2nd round.
Hoping to get one later, is just hoping. Could happen but I wouldn't count on it.

Sometime in round 1 does not mean it has to be top 5.
But I'd still throw Brady in there just because it can happen
That wasn't really what I was talking about.

Sorry if I didn't look it but who are these 6 Super Bowl winning QBs you speak of in 20 years?
Off hand, I can think of two...Manning and Manning, I probably forgot someone....
Same goes for top 5 even.

Yet I can think of a bunch outside he top 5. Way more.

You are correct that you do not have to have a Top 5 QB to win a Super Bowl, but your chances are much greater as I pointed out.

To your question, the other QB drafted first overall to win a Super Bowl in the last 20 years was John Elway, who won 2. The two Manning brothers each won 2 as well for the total of 6. Also, as my post stated, 7 different QBs drafted in the 1st round have won Super Bowls and 5 different QBs drafted in the Top 15 have won Super Bowls over that same time frame.

The bottom-line is that history says if you want to win a Super Bowl, your best chance is to have a Top 15 QB at the helm since they have accounted for 45% of all Super Bowl victories over the last 2 decades. Outside of the 1st round and 2nd rounds, and if you consider Tom Brady an anomaly, then only 15% of the Super Bowls in the last 20 years were won by QBs drafted after Round 2.

 

[DFWJC]

You are correct that you do not have to have a Top 5 QB to win a Super Bowl, but your chances are much greater as I pointed out.

To your question, the other QB drafted first overall to win a Super Bowl in the last 20 years was John Elway, who won 2. The two Manning brothers each won 2 as well for the total of 6. Also, as my post stated, 7 different QBs drafted in the 1st round have won Super Bowls and 5 different QBs drafted in the Top 15 have won Super Bowls over that same time frame.

The bottom-line is that history says if you want to win a Super Bowl, your best chance is to have a Top 15 QB at the helm since they have accounted for 45% of all Super Bowl victories over the last 2 decades. Outside of the 1st round and 2nd rounds, and if you consider Tom Brady an anomaly, then only 15% of the Super Bowls in the last 20 years were won by QBs drafted after Round 2.

The chances, as you pointed out, are 70% in favor of winning one if you DONT have a top QB
Correct? 14 of 20

J/k

I hear you

 

[conner01]

Not at all, but we didn't find Tony with the #4 pick in the draft as a developmental player.

So your plan is just sign an UDFA and all is good?
How many top qb's come from the middle of the draft or down? Not many
And if that's the case why not the same at any position. Just trade 4 for a whole bunch of lower rnd picks to fill all our needs

 

[waving monkey]

I was listening.

There's too much talk of the Eagles moving up for Wentz. They are practically salivating at the idea.

He is our savior. Not theirs.

Have you used the River Jordon water Risen Star or is it just tap water your anointing with?

 

[jnday]

This is what I'm afraid of. Them falling in love with a certain guy and trading multiple picks this year or next years #1 for Wentz or whoever.

I don't like the ideal of trading up, but if the scouts and coaches think Wentz is a franchise QB, you go and get him. It will be cheaper to trade up from 4 than waiting until an 8-8 season to trade up.

 

[jnday]

My point is that it does not have to be in the top 5....let alone some panicky trade up to mortgage the future when we're already in the top 5
A top 5 pick--value-wise--is about the same as two mid 1st rounders. Yet except for the Mannings, ALL of the SB winning QBs have been selected later than the top 5 in recent history. Most much later.

Furthermore and just as importantly is that ALL of those QBs listed were not even the 1st QB taken in their draft.
Brees, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Rodgers....all basically 1st rounders taken later in the round.
So those saying we won't get our chances are wrong. All of those recent SB winning QBs are proof otherwise.
Our problem is that we haven't taken one anywhere in the 1st round in 20+ years...it's not that we needed a top 5 pick to do it

So to clarify, I'm not saying try to find one in the later rounds. Just saying that top 5 is not necessary whatsoever.

Several of those QBs listed was mid-first round draftees. The OB position has become so highly valued that not as many QBs drops to the mid-first as you would think. Dallas had the chance to draft Johnny Football in the mid-first, but there has not been many QBs to drop as it has been in the past. QBs like Ponder, Locker, etc was over-drafted by a full round. The results was not too good. In reality, the only thing a team can do once they find a franchise QB, in their opinion, is to do whatever it takes to get him. If he is a bust, some scouts needs fired. I don't think Dallas has held the scouts accountable as they should . At least we don't hear about it if they do.