Twitter: Scoring first was the key in Cowboys wins last year

[Kingofholland]

As NFL writer Warren Sharp chronicled in his Twitter post, scoring first in the NFL matters a lot. In the last decade, NFL teams that score first win 64% of the time. Last year, that was even more true for the Cowboys.

In the 2023 season, it was very obvious that the Cowboys almost had to score first to win. The Cowboys were an amazing 10-0 last year when they scored first. Including the playoff loss to GB last January, the Cowboys were 2-6 when the opponent scored first.

Here are some reasons why scoring first mattered so much for Dallas in 2023:

• When the Cowboys were ahead, especially if they led by 10 or more, it allowed our defense‘s strengths to step forward which was rushing the passer. When we got behind, stopping the run became critical and that has been our Achilles heel on defense for years.
• Daron Bland’s 5 pick six TDs last year all happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.
• In the Cowboys six losses last season, teams were able to run the ball almost at will. Buffalo took the opening kickoff and rammed it down our throat on the ground as did the cards, niners and the packers in those losses. When you’re behind, if you can’t stop the run, it’s curtains.
• This defensive problem puts pressure on the Cowboys offense to always score first. Sometimes an NFL offense is going to start slow. Look at the chiefs offense in the SB. They scored 3 in the first half but their defense kept them in the game until the offense could get going.

So based on the above info, in 2024 will this team be able to win if they fall behind early? Will we once again have to score first to have a realistic shot to win?

There's a lot that has to go right, but this is spot on usually you can spot a Cowboys game result based on what happens in the first quarter. There's probably more questions going into this season than last, but Zimmer's scheme Mazi's development, and the LB group will be critical for how far this team can go.

 

[jwitten82]

Lol this speaks volumes about both offense and defense. You telling me our offense cant play without a lead? They just shutdown whens it's 7-0? Ridiculous

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

That's obvious, but you gloss over the fact that our offense cannot be relied upon to make comebacks, thus exposing a huge weakness.

Defense isn't going to be lights out every week either.

How do you make a comeback if you can't get a stop? Comebacks go hand in hand. You can't come back without scoring and you can't come back without getting steps.

A top defense will be more consistent than a top offense.

 

[Coogiguy03]

It clearly indicates without a lead our D can not get us back in the game.

Why because we can never get key stops. 3rd and 12 they get 25 yards

 

[Stash]

Yeah I mean I remember it too. But I guess the defense was what I expected it to be. They couldn’t stop the run and had safeties playing linebacker so for me whatever we got there was bonus.

Can’t keep trying to get away trying to get away with bad interior play and linebacker play it will only last for so long.

Im
Hoping if there’s one thing that will happen with Zim is he at least shores that up. But then again all they gave him was Kendrick’s to fix it.

Your thoughts echo my own.

 

[Chasing6]

Your thoughts echo my own.

I believe our outside run D will be better. However, we will still struggle up the middle.

 

[fivetwos]

Or the disasters of Monte Kiffin, Rob Ryan, and Mike Zimmer the first time around.

Jerry sure can pick 'em.

I think things may have been limited as far as getting coordinators to come here under Garrett for one reason or another.

I’m not so sure he had a ton of people around the league who actually liked and respected him….then there’s the Jerry’s situation.

It also could have been that Garrett didn’t want anyone around that could potentially threaten his job.

So, we end up with guys like Linehan and Marinelli, neither of which was ever getting another HC shot.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Nobody expects them to be "LIGHTS OUT" (every week). Nobody is saying that. Just like the D won;t be either.

But they do have to maintain composure and clock. Give the defense some respite. It's even more imperative when the D looks like backs against the wall.

Could it be the O tries to hard to get it back all at once? I don;t know just a thought. I will add patience and resolve as well.

But of course the D needs it too. EVERYONE has to make plays. But Offense seems to me to be something we can control much ..."easier"?

I think that's why they are separated into "OFFENSE" and "DEFENSE". Two different things in "wartime".

My point was we are saying the offense put up 16 some weeks and 20 some weeks....this is what a normal team does. The best offenses may average 30 on the year but they will have some games with 40 and some games with 20.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Well if you trade points no offense can get back in the game.

I will take my chances on trading points as opposed to what we did the gb game.

 

[Brax]

As NFL writer Warren Sharp chronicled in his Twitter post, scoring first in the NFL matters a lot. In the last decade, NFL teams that score first win 64% of the time. Last year, that was even more true for the Cowboys.

In the 2023 season, it was very obvious that the Cowboys almost had to score first to win. The Cowboys were an amazing 10-0 last year when they scored first. Including the playoff loss to GB last January, the Cowboys were 2-6 when the opponent scored first.

Here are some reasons why scoring first mattered so much for Dallas in 2023:

• When the Cowboys were ahead, especially if they led by 10 or more, it allowed our defense‘s strengths to step forward which was rushing the passer. When we got behind, stopping the run became critical and that has been our Achilles heel on defense for years.
• Daron Bland’s 5 pick six TDs last year all happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.
• In the Cowboys six losses last season, teams were able to run the ball almost at will. Buffalo took the opening kickoff and rammed it down our throat on the ground as did the cards, niners and the packers in those losses. When you’re behind, if you can’t stop the run, it’s curtains.
• This defensive problem puts pressure on the Cowboys offense to always score first. Sometimes an NFL offense is going to start slow. Look at the chiefs offense in the SB. They scored 3 in the first half but their defense kept them in the game until the offense could get going.

So based on the above info, in 2024 will this team be able to win if they fall behind early? Will we once again have to score first to have a realistic shot to win?

Bob it’s no secret that the team was built to play with a lead, Jerry an company built the team with the dollars spent on O, as we know when the O fails to produce to maintain a lead the D is put in a. Compromised position and the weaknesses can be hidden. JJ SJ and MM have gone the Heavy on Offense resource allocation. We know the results and paying top dollar on O and mostly bargain D players, you get the results we have seen, it’s not going to change anytime soon because Jerry firmly believes in the O first line of building a team

 

[slick325]

I said all season that they are a bunch of frontrunners. Once they got a lead, they were as good as any team in the League. Fall behind, and it could get ugly quick! Sure they had games when they didn't score first and still won, but that was a rarity.

Fits into the Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones culture. When things are great they can't wait to be on TV or radio. Things go bad...Jerry cancels scheduled interviews. Lol

 

[Stash]

I believe our outside run D will be better. However, we will still struggle up the middle.

I’m optimistic that even with largely the same personnel that our overall defensive discipline and run defense will improve across the board.

 

[Vtwin]

The team was #1 in turnover differential in 2021, #2 in 2022 and #3 last season. The defense lead the league in takeaways in 21 and 22 and were 5th last season. That is a huge factor in offensive production and in getting and maintaining a lead.

It's going to be interesting to see if Zimmer's more conservative approach leads to less takeaways and the affect that might have on the offense.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

We had 6 games in the regular season (35% of our games) where we scored 20 or less. I'm not sure if we had a defensive score in any of those so for now assuming that's all offensive production. Around 2/3 of the league averaged more than 20\game for the season. So, simple deduction is that if you score less than 21 in any given game, you are at risk regardless of the opponent.

49ers had 5 games of scoring less than 20.
Dolphins had 6 games
Ravens 4 games
Lions 4 games
Bills 5 games

These are the top 5 offenses in the league that had 4 to 6 games of not scoring more than 20.

You are right the less you score the harder it is to win.

 

[thunderpimp91]

A top defense will be more consistent than a top offense.

Interesting comment, and I'm not sure that you're wrong, probably depends on what we are calling a top defense....I do think the top defenses in the league will tend to be pretty consistent units over a full season. The top 5 scoring defenses last year were Baltimore, KC, SF, Buffalo, and Dallas.

Baltimore - 2 games allowing more that 30 points, 3 more games allowing more than 20 points
KC - 0 and 3
Buffalo - 1 and 7
SF - 2 and 4
Dallas - 3 and 3

Compare that to a team like Cleveland who was more middle of the pack but we typically consider a really strong defense

CLE - 4 over 30 plus 6 over 20

Dallas seems to not be truly elite, seems like that is reserved for Baltimore and oddly KC....I think we slept on how good that defense was all year last season. Based on consistency though they do seem to align themselves pretty well in that 2nd tier despite their flaws in the run game.

The other quick takeaway I see is that these 5 teams have some of the highest winning percentages in the league over the last three years and also have been consistently in the top half of the league in defensive metrics in addition to pretty good QB play. The NFL is truly the ultimate team sport.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Agreed, but we need to look at the offense and defense by equal rules when evaluating the units. The defense also had 11 games where they allowed 20 or fewer points. Overall both the offense and defense were both really good units but flawed units. Defensively this team was a plus team against the pass and below average against the run. Offensively they were a plus team passing and pretty average in the run game. Both units had 10+ games of putting up really strong numbers, but had their off weeks which uncoincidentally or not seemed to come on the exact same weeks often.

It did. And maybe it's unfair to them but I feel a stout offense translates most weeks. If you're a top 5 defense it's gonna translate more times than not. That didn't seem to be the case.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Interesting comment, and I'm not sure that you're wrong, probably depends on what we are calling a top defense....I do think the top defenses in the league will tend to be pretty consistent units over a full season. The top 5 scoring defenses last year were Baltimore, KC, SF, Buffalo, and Dallas.

Baltimore - 2 games allowing more that 30 points, 3 more games allowing more than 20 points
KC - 0 and 3
Buffalo - 1 and 7
SF - 2 and 4
Dallas - 3 and 3

Compare that to a team like Cleveland who was more middle of the pack but we typically consider a really strong defense

CLE - 4 over 30 plus 6 over 20

Dallas seems to not be truly elite, seems like that is reserved for Baltimore and oddly KC....I think we slept on how good that defense was all year last season. Based on consistency though they do seem to align themselves pretty well in that 2nd tier despite their flaws in the run game.

The other quick takeaway I see is that these 5 teams have some of the highest winning percentages in the league over the last three years and also have been consistently in the top half of the league in defensive metrics in addition to pretty good QB play. The NFL is truly the ultimate team sport.

Cowboys defense can't ever be in the same caliber as other top defenses because they don't value the trenches. All flash. Our defense is dependent on the opponent we face. If any offense can pass and have a stout running game they are gonna give us issues. When the defense gets punched in the mouth that's it. They never do the punching. Those punches are suppose to come from your front 7. I think D-Law will punch you in the face....that's about the only guy I can think of in that front 7. Hoping Kendricks can contribute some of that.

 

[McKDaddy]

49ers had 5 games of scoring less than 20.
Dolphins had 6 games
Ravens 4 games
Lions 4 games
Bills 5 games

These are the top 5 offenses in the league that had 4 to 6 games of not scoring more than 20.

You are right the less you score the harder it is to win.

I wondered how other teams fared but didn't have time to look it up. I know SF lost 3 games in a row when they were beset by injuries & one of their other losses was when they got blown out by Ravens. Not trying to excuse their sub 20 performances but injuries level the playing field. So, I could see argument that they only had 2 sub 20 performances when healthy. Curious what an analysis of other teams would look like.

 

[birdwells1]

I remember more than just the Green Bay game where Quinn’s defense failed to show up.

We were a team of extremes. Either we blew teams out, or we GOT blown out.

Teams that stuck to the run game kinda killed us, the blueprint to beat the Cowboys was on display in the Arizona game.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

Yes. We needed a lead for our defense, so they could play one dimensional.

This is one facet that I'm hoping Zimmer can bring. Quinn's strategy was good when we had a lead, but then, most defences can be really good when you score first. What we need is to be able to evolve this defence to handle both playing with a lead and playing from behind.