This is going to be a shootout. Now that I've said that, it's probably going to end 9-6.
I think this is actually our toughest game left this year. They're the best offense, for sure. Divisional game. If we're going to lose a game, this will probably be it. Actually pretty comparable teams.
Cowboys Offense = #2 yards per drive, #1 points per drive, #6 to's per drive (good thing), #1 in drives ending in TD or 1st down, #3 with 108 average passer rating, #4 with 4.7 yards per rush, average 28.5 points per game
Commanders Offense = #1 in yards per drive, #5 in points per drive, #17 in to's per drive (avg), #5 in drives ending in TD or 1st down, #9 with 99 average passer rating, #5 with 4.6 yards per rush, average 25.4 points per game.
Cowboys Defense = #25 in yards per drive, #14 in points per drive, #20 in to's per drive, #25 in drives ending in TD or 1st down, #20 in sacks with 20, #29 in opponent average rating with 99, #21 in yards per rush with 4.1
Commanders Defense = #26 in yards per drive, #22 in points per drive, #11 in to's per drive, #29 in drives ending in TD or 1st down, #6 in sacks with 27, #18 in opponent average passer rating with 93.8, #31 in yards per rush with 4.6
The average passer rating we're giving up, below league average in to's, and lack of pass rush is concerning since Washington is killing the passing game right now in big plays, #3 in the league with 28 passing plays over 25 yards. Dallas is actually one of the best in the league at preventing big pass plays though, numerically at #4 having allowed just one more than the Vikings.
We're also #2 in rushing "big plays", rushes over 10 yards, with 40 of them. We've rushed for more than 10 yards 40 times, that's pretty incredible. Commanders are about 10th worst in giving up these 10+ rushing plays, with 30. And for our pretty bad rushing yards per attempt on defense, we're about 5th in the league in preventing rushes over 10 yards.
We're better on offense, statistically, but they're definitely a larger threat in the passing game. Luckily we're one of the best in the league at stopping big plays. Defenses are pretty comparable, we're a little better at keeping points down, they're better at generating pressure and getting turnovers. These teams are basically mirror images of each other, with one being a little better at certain things than the other.
We're missing Mo which will definitely hurt, but they're missing Trent Williams. I'd say it's a draw.
One thing's for sure, this is one of the best Thanksgiving games in a long time. Two of the NFC's best, in division rivals, and very comparable teams going at it. It's going to be one hell of a game.